RBI says inflation is on track to meet projections, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Inflation is likely to remain within the Reserve Bank of India‘s (RBI) projected levels for the rest of the year, it said on Tuesday while highlighting that inflation containment comes at the cost of economic growth.

Earlier this month the RBI raised its 2021/22 inflation forecast to 5.7% from 5.1% and reiterated that it will continue to keep monetary policy accommodative as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis.

The retained stance and increased inflation forecast started a debate over whether monetary policy has forsaken its primary mandate of price stability in the face of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic.

The RBI is mandated to bring down retail inflation to 4% over the medium term while keeping it within a range of 2-6%, a band it has breached twice this year.

Inflation is on the central bank’s envisaged trajectory and likely to stabilise over the rest of the year, the RBI said of what it described in Tuesday’s bulletin as “a credible forward-looking mission statement for the path of inflation”.

“The MPC demonstrated its commitment and ability to anchor inflation expectations around the target of 4% during 2016-2020. The once-in-a-century pandemic ratcheted up inflation all over the world and India was not immune,” it added.

“Our MPC is India-focused; it has to be. It must choose what is right for India, emulating none, not emerging nor advanced peer,” the bulletin said.

A reduction in the rate of inflation can be achieved only by reduction in growth; an increase in growth is only possible by paying the price of an increase in inflation, always and everywhere, the RBI said.

Easing of pandemic-related restrictions and ongoing vaccination programme has helped to boost demand conditions while improving monsoon and rising agricultural sowing activity is improving supply conditions in the economy.

“The MPC voted to give growth a chance to claw its way back into the sunlight,” the RBI said.



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RBI lifts ban on HDFC Bank issuing credit cards, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has lifted an eight month ban on HDFC Bank in a big relief to the private sector lender, a bank spokesperson confirmed. On December 3, in an unprecedented move the bank was barred from issuing new credit cards and launching any new digital products after multiple issues linked to digital banking, cards and payments on the bank’s platform in the last two years.

HDFC Bank, the largest issuer of credit cards in India lost market share in the last few months as restrictions on issuing new cards meant sales stopped. Outstanding credit cards dropped from 15.4 million in November 2020 to 14.9 million in May 2021.

However, in a call with the media at the end of June the bank’s senior management expressed confidence that they will make up for the lost time by cross selling to liability and other asset customers once the ban on issuing new cards is lifted.

Parag Rao, group head, payments, consumer finance, digital banking and IT at HDFC Bank said the bank is preparing to return to the market “with a bang” whenever RBI removes the ban. In the last seven months the bank has put an early warning system to manage large volumes, declogged processes and replaced old technology as part of its short and long term plan submitted to RBI, Rao said.



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HDFC Bank’s AT1 bonds get Moody’s Ba3 rating, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: HDFC Bank‘s proposed Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds have been rated Ba3, three notches below their deposit ratings by Moody’s, with limited likelihood of any rating upgrade in the next 12-18 months due to possible weakness in sovereign rating and the likelihood of rising bad assets in the Indian financial system.

The bank will be the first private sector lender to offer those quasi-equity securities offshore if it finally launches the overseas sale that is expected to open for subscription in the next 7 days.

HDFC Bank will likely set a benchmark for many other local lenders including Union Bank of India, State Bank of India and Axis Bank.

S&P is also expected to come out with a similar rating grade for HDFC Bank’s AT1 series.

The initial guidance is likely to be less than 4 per cent, although it could finally settle anything between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent, said people familiar with the matter. The size of the issue is expected to be in the range of $500 million to $1 billion depending on investor demand, ET reported on July 29.

“Roadshows have just begun across the world,” one of the persons cited above said.

In between, there were hard negotiations for the pricing particularly after a Thai bank raised AT1 at about 4 per cent two weeks ago.

The borrower is actually looking for 3.5 per cent, which looks tough. Still, there will be good demand for any paper series, branded with the HDFC mark, dealers said.

HDFC Bank and individual investment bankers could not be contacted immediately for comments.

Nearly a dozen banks have been appointed to help the proposed bond sale. Those banks include Barclays, Bank of America, Citi, HSBC, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, MUFG, Sofgen, BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley.

AT1, also known as perpetual bonds, add to banks’ capital base unlike perpetual papers issued by any corporate. Such securities do not have any fixed maturity but generally have a five-year call option that allows an exit route for investors.

“The Ba3 (hyb) rating is three notches below HDFC Bank’s baa3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, reflecting the probability of impairment associated with non-cumulative coupon suspension, as well as the likelihood of high loss severity when the bank reaches the point of non-viability,” Moody’s said in a report Monday.

The principal and any accrued but unpaid distributions on these capital securities would be written down, partially or in full, if HDFC Bank’s common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio is at or below 5.5 per cent any time prior to 1 October 2021, and 6.125 per cent from and including 1st October, 2021.

In such a scenario, the write-down may be temporary, and the amount could be reinstated subject to the Reserve Bank of India‘s (RBI) conditions, Moody’s said.

“A lowering of HDFC Bank’s BCA (Baseline Credit Assessment) will lead to a rating downgrade of the proposed AT1 securities,” Moody’s added.



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Citibank granted IFSCA licence to set up banking unit at GIFT City, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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GIC had set up its international operations in Dubai in 2007 and had been providing reinsurance to the African continent.

Ahmedabad: US-headquartered Citibank NA has received the regulatory approval to open a banking unit at India’s only International Financial Services Centre at Gandhinagar, to carry out offshore transactions, said sources privy to the development.

This has paved the way for the first US bank to set up a branch at the Gujarat Finance Tec-City (GIFT City). “We issued a licence to Citibank on Monday to set up its IFSC banking unit at GIFT,” confirmed Dipesh Shah, development head, International Financial Services Centres Authority, the unified regulator for development and regulation of financial products, financial services and financial institutions at IFSCs.

Citibank will service both Indian and global customers from its IFSC branch. The new IFSC unit aims to undertake credit business such as execution of foreign currency loans and external commercial borrowings, working capital loans including trade finance facilities, payment/remittance as well as treasury business including borrowing and deposits, said sources.

Last year, Citibank received in-principle nod from the Reserve Bank of India for the banking unit after which it was awaiting the final nod from IFSCA to start operations.

Recently, Deutsche Bank, a global bank with presence in over 70 countries, became the first German bank to set up its IFSC banking unit at GIFT IFSC. “Global banks are finding the IFSC a great strategic opportunity to serve international clients at a very competitive cost. The IFSC is fast emerging as the preferred gateway for international financial services and is enabling many new business opportunities for global investors,” said Shah.

Leading Indian and foreign banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered, Barclays, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC, among others are already operating from GIFT IFSC.



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Gold loan business shines as economic stress grows amid pandemic, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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If you have noticed retail shops and restaurants closing down in your locality and brightly lit jeweller’s shop opening in its place off late, there is a business booming in the middle of the pandemic.

While it is not about people flocking to buy gold, but pawning and selling gold in the time of widespread economic distress brought about by Covid.

It’s not just the local jewellers that are expanding, but the organised ones are on growth mode too.

What gives?

RBI data showed that at the end of FY21, the total value of gold loans outstanding was nearly Rs 60,500 crore — up 82% on the year.

Loan demand has picked up from the beginning of July as Covid-19 cases are declining and economic activities are on the upswing with many states easing restrictions. Gold loan non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) said customer walk-ins have increased during the month.

The average ticket size of loans that customers are opting for is Rs 55,000-60,000, which are rising for many lenders, showing growing signs of distress.

Gold loan NBFCs are seeing more competition in the gold loan business in the current financial year as the special allowance given by the Reserve Bank of India to banks to take an LTV (loan-to-value) exposure against gold loan was valid till March 31, 2021. Banks had witnessed a significant growth in gold loan business due to this special allowance. On the contrary, gold loan NBFCs are allowed an LTV exposure of 75%.

Gold auctions

Mannapuram Finance auctioned Rs 404 crore in the fourth quarter, which shot up to Rs 1,500 crore in the June quarter. The auctions happen when borrowers are unable to redeem their gold and the lenders auction it to recover their loans. Mannapuram had auctioned just Rs 8 crore worth of the yellow metal in the first three quarters of FY21.

Manappuram Finance sees business picking up in the second quarter of the fiscal with the gradual unlocking of the economy. It sees a slight decline in the portfolio in the first quarter before the pick-up.

The expansion

Muthoot FinCorp has expanded its physical network by more than 100 new branches, mainly in the north, east and west regions of India, most of which were in rural and semi-urban areas. The NBFC had opened 70 branches in FY20.

Muthoot’s gold asset under management (AUM) grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12% between FY15 and FY20. In FY21, the portfolio grew 27%.

Pune-based Bajaj Finance has increased its gold loan branches from 480 to 700 in the last financial year and plans to add 100 plus branches this fiscal.

Its loan book grew 52% last year to Rs 2,300 crore while it saw an increase in ticket sizes from Rs 75,000 to Rs 85,000 last year.

Bengaluru-based Rupeek Fintech Private Ltd’s disbursals grew 2.5 times during the calendar year 2020. It has added its presence in 17 more cities, from 10 at the end of 2019.

Shriram City Union Finance is also looking to ramp up its gold financing business this financial year, changing its strategy of focusing on other loan portfolios.



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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to meet CEOs of public sector banks on August 25, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to meet heads of public sector banks (PSBs) on August 25 to review financial performance of the lenders and progress made by them to support the economy battered by COVID-19 pandemic.

Given the importance of the banking sector in generating demand and boosting consumption, sources said the meeting with the MD and CEOs of PSBs is considered important.

Recently, the Finance Minister said the government is ready to do everything required to revive and support economic growth hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Growth will be given its importance. Growth will be pushed both by the Reserve Bank and by us…,” she had said.

Interestingly, this would be the first physical review meeting since the outbreak of the pandemic in March last year.

The meeting is expected to take stock of the banking sector, progress on restructuring 2.0 scheme announced by Reserve Bank of India (RBI), sources said, adding that banks may be nudged to push loan growth in productive sectors.

The revamped Rs 4.5 lakh crore Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) would also be reviewed during the meeting likely to be held in Mumbai, sources said.

Besides, the Finance Minister is expected to take a stock of the bad loan or non-performing asset (NPA) situation, and discuss various recovery measures by banks, they said.

As a result of government’s strategy of recognition, resolution, recapitalisation and reforms, NPAs have since declined to Rs 7,39,541 crore on March 31, 2019, Rs 6,78,317 crore on March 31, 2020 and further to Rs 6,16,616 crore as on March 31, 2021 (provisional data).

At the same time comprehensive steps were taken to control and to effect recovery in NPAs, which enabled PSBs to recover Rs 5,01,479 crore over the last six financial years, the government informed Parliament recently.

As far as credit growth of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) is concerned, it has remained positive for 2020-21 despite contraction in GDP (-7.3 per cent) due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gross loans and advances – outstanding of SCBs increased from Rs 109.19 lakh crore as of March 31, 2020 to Rs 113.99 lakh crore as of March 31, 2021. Agriculture and allied activities, micro, small and medium enterprises, housing and auto have witnessed a year-on-year growth of 12.3 per cent, 8.5 per cent, 9.1 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively, during the year.

Notwithstanding economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, PSBs have managed to raise a record Rs 58,700 crore from markets in 2020-21 through a mix of debt and equity to enhance capital base. As a result capital to risk weighted assets ratio rose to 14.04 per cent as of March 31, 2021, as against regulatory requirement of 10.875 per cent boosting the ability of PSBs to further increase lending.

As a result, PSBs in aggregate recorded a profit of Rs 31,816 crore, highest in five years, despite 7.3 per cent contraction in economy in 2020-21.

The primary reason for PSBs to post such a Rs 57,832-crore turnaround from a loss of Rs 26,015 crore in 2019-20 to a combined profit of Rs 31,816 crore was the end of their legacy bad loan problem.



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RBI cancels Karnala Bank licence, another fined, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cancelled the licence of Karnala Nagari Sahakari Bank, Panvel. RBI said that on liquidation, every depositor will receive deposit insurance claim amount up to Rs 5 lakh from Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC). DICGC cover will entitle 95% depositors to receive full amounts of their deposits.

RBI on Friday also imposed a penalty of Rs 25 lakh on Greater Bombay Cooperative Bank, citing non-compliance with guidelines on monitoring for fraud.

Following licence cancellation, Karnala Bank will cease to do business from the close of business hours on August 13. “The commissioner for cooperation and registrar of cooperative societies, Maharashtra, was requested to issue an order for winding up the bank and appointing a liquidator for the bank,” RBI said.

It said the lender did not have capital and earning prospects and did not comply with provisions of section 11(1) and section 22 (3) (d) read with section 56 of Banking Regulation Act, 1949.

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Visa could gain 5% incremental share as curbs on MasterCard continue, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Economics made us partners – and necessity allies. JFK’s template on neighbourhood commercial blocs is being dusted off by Visa in its latest bid to grab MasterCard’s business. Alliances with the likes of IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank and RBL Bank – and another half a dozen fintech players – are at the core of an aggressive strategy that could help Visa gain 5-7 per cent incremental share as curbs on its rival continue.

“It is a great opportunity for Visa, which has been engaging heavily with start-ups in the last 18-24 months to move these sourcing pipes in their favor,” said Amit Das, Co-founder of Think360 – a payments analytics firm. “We have also heard of fintechs like YAP taking this opportunity to show how differentiated their agility is. They have managed to switch over completely to Visa pipes in less than 48 hours.”

Industry sources say that Visa and MasterCard together process a significant chunk – over 70 per cent – of India’s credit cards. For debit card issuances, NPCI’s RuPay is said to be the largest card issuer. The central bank doesn’t disclose the breakup.

These sources indicate that while Visa has a 44 per cent market share, MasterCard owns 37 per cent of the market.

“While both Visa and Rupay will benefit in the segments they are trying to address, Visa will benefit more because of its ability to roll out products faster than Rupay,” brokerage house Macquarie said in a recent report. “Visa has a concept of providing exceptional approval and is able to go live within 24 hours at times. Since the process of transition is shorter and faster with Visa, it could benefit more from this disruption.”

Visa is also gaining an upper hand in getting new debit card issuance contracts as well. The central government’s zero Merchant Discount Rate rule on RuPay debit cards means that private sector banks, which were tying up with Mastercard to issue these cards, are almost exclusively moving to Visa.

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed regulatory restrictions on MasterCard from onboarding new domestic debit, credit, or prepaid customers on its card network in India from July 22 onward. The central bank’s supervisory action cited “non-compliance with directions on Payment System Data.”

To be sure, these restrictions are only on Mastercard’s new cards and not the existing instruments held by customers.



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Hold crypto assets? Here’s how you are going to pay income-tax on it, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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A cryptocurrency is a decentralised digital asset and a medium of exchange. Bitcoin was the world’s first crypto currency launched in 2009. It was created by a software developer under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Based on blockchain technology, over 1,500 virtual currencies such as Litecoin, Ripple, Ethereum and Dogecoin are being actively used and traded globally today.

The cryptocurrency space in India has been subject to significant regulatory challenges. It started with a circular issued by the Reserve Bank of India on 6th April 2018, which restricted banking facilities from being offered to participants involved in cryptocurrency transactions. In March 2020, the Supreme Court set aside the RBI circular, on constitutional grounds and affirmed the virtual currency exchanges’ fundamental right to trade. It is estimated that around 5 million traders in India traded across 24 exchanges, with trading volumes in the range of 1,500 Bitcoins a day translating to a volume of Rs 1 billion. According to moneycontrol.com, the trading volume of cryptocurrency in India increased by 400 percent during the nationwide lockdown.

On 24th March, 2021, in what could possibly mark the first move by the government to regulate cryptocurrencies and related transactions in India, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs has made it mandatory for companies dealing with virtual currencies to disclose profit or loss incurred on crypto transactions and the amount of crypto currency they hold in their balance sheets at the reporting date. These amendments were made in schedule III of the Companies Act with effect from April 1, 2021.

The Indian income tax law is still unclear regarding the tax impact on the gains earned from cryptocurrencies. It is worthwhile to note that India’s tax authorities have not yet categorized returns from cryptocurrencies under any specific bracket and there have been no judicial precedents in this regard.

To understand the taxability of the cryptocurrencies, one should examine the classification of cryptocurrency i.e. is it currency or goods/property?

How are tax cryptocurrency transactions in other countries?
USA: The Internal Revenue Service in 2014 decided cryptocurrencies should be treated as “property”, meaning they should be taxed as capital assets other than in situations when cryptos are earned from mining activities.

Singapore: Businesses that trade virtual currencies in the course of their business are taxed on profits as business income. Entities holding cryptocurrencies for long-term investment purposes are not taxed as there is no capital gains tax in Singapore.

UK: If a person buys and sells crypto assets with such frequency, level of organisation and sophistication that the activity amounts to a financial trade, then it will be taxed as trading profit/losses, else it will be subject to capital gains tax.

Taxation of cryptocurrency transactions in India
If cryptocurrency is to be classified as currency, then the said transaction will not be exigible to taxation under the Income Tax Act, 1961 (“ITA”). Cryptocurrencies are not recognized as currency by the RBI and the word ‘income’ as defined under section 2(24) of the ITA provides an inclusive list not covering ‘money’ or ‘currency’. On the other hand, if cryptocurrency is considered as property/goods, then it would fall under the heads of either ‘Capital Gains’ or ‘Profit and Gains from Business or Profession’.

The fact that crypto currency gains will be taxed is now certain with the Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Anurag Singh Thakur clarifying on 28th March 2021 that “the gains resulting from the transfer of cryptocurrencies / assets are subject to tax under a head of income, depending upon the nature of holding of the same”.

Thus, it is settled that cryptocurrencies will not be treated as currency by India and will be exigible to tax. The key issue is whether income from virtual currency is treated as capital gains or business income. If a seller is a trader by occupation, the income should be taxed as business income. If it is not business income, such income would be taxed in the nature of capital gains.

Taxability under ‘Capital Gains’
Crypto currency can be deemed to be a capital asset if it is purchased for the purpose of investment by a taxpayer. As per Section 2(14) of the ITA, a capital asset means a property of any kind held by a person, whether or not connected with his business or profession. The term ‘property’, though has no statutory meaning, yet it signifies every possible interest which a person can acquire, hold or enjoy. Therefore, any gain arising out of the transfer of cryptocurrency may be considered as capital gains, if it is held for investment.

Infrequent crypto transactions could be treated as long or short-term capital gains, depending on the holding period. If investors hold cryptocurrencies for 36 months or more, the gains would be taxable as long-term capital gains, and if less than 36 months, it would be short-term capital gains. Short-term capital gains are taxable as per the slab rates applicable to a taxpayer. And long-term capital gains are taxed at the flat rate of 20% with the benefit of indexation.

Taxability under ‘Profit and Gains from Business or Profession’:
However, if the transactions are substantial and frequent, it could be held that the taxpayer is trading in cryptocurrencies and any profits thereon would be taxable as business income. Similarly, if cryptocurrencies are held as ‘stock in trade’, then income arising therefrom will attract tax under business income. Therefore, the continuous activity of trading in cryptocurrencies and profits realized will be taxable as business income. Although a position can be taken by the revenue authorities that such trading is treated as speculation income which would adversely impact taxpayers.

In conclusion, virtual currencies can boost India’s digital infrastructure and reduce banks’ infrastructure costs attributable to cross-border payments, securities trading and regulatory compliance. We still need clarity from the government on cryptocurrency taxation, particularly on issues such as treatment of capital gains or business income, classification as speculative income, allowability of set-off, and carry-forward of losses, and applicability of deemed gift tax provisions.

(The author, Harsh Bhuta, is a Partner at Bhuta Shah and Co LLP. The views are his own)



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Bond losses seen in India as dissent breaks out at RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: India’s bond yields will rise by year-end as disagreement among central bank’s rate-setting panel members indicates they are moving toward a more hawkish stance, a Bloomberg survey has found.

The benchmark 10-year yield will climb to 6.40% by December, while the five-year yield will increase to 5.90%, according to the median estimate in the survey of 15 traders, fund managers and economists conducted this week. The 10-year yield closed at 6.23% on Thursday, and the five-year at 5.74%.

Bearishness toward the country’s sovereign debt increased after one of the six Reserve Bank of India monetary policy panel members voted against the lower-for-longer stance at last week’s policy meeting. That was a departure from previous gatherings this year when they had been unanimous on the need to support growth amid the coronavirus.

“What caused the unease for the market was that the vote for the accommodative stance was 5-1,” said Badrish Kulhalli, head of fixed income at HDFC Life Insurance Ltd in Mumbai. “The expectation is that, once the minutes are out, they may show a greater amount of debate about the time period for maintaining the accommodative stance.”

Two other bond negatives also came out of the meeting. The RBI raised its average inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.7% from 5.1%, and said it would increase the amount of money it drains from the banking system via its variable rate reverse repurchase agreements.

The dissent from monetary policy committee member Jayanth Rama Varma came after India’s annual inflation rate topped 6% in both May and June, putting it back above the upper end of the RBI’s target band. While this wasn’t the first time Varma dissented, it added to a slew of negatives for the nation’s debt including rising supply, stubborn inflation and speculation the global recovery is gathering pace.

The Bloomberg survey also found a wide divergence of views about when the RBI will start raising its key reverse repurchase rate. Six of the analysts forecast the first move will take place in December, while two said February, six April and one in June.

Swap markets are currently predicting the initial hike will take place in October, while 40 basis points are priced in by December, according to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.

“The RBI could straddle this divide between market expectations and its own patient approach by guiding the market for a December hike using growth and vaccination goalposts,” ICICI economists including A. Prasanna in Mumbai wrote in a research note. “Such a contingent guidance in the October review would plausibly prevent premature tightening of financial conditions.”

RBI purchases

Another crucial determinant for India’s bond yields is how aggressive the RBI will be in trying to prevent them from rising. The central bank is scheduled to buy Rs 1.2 lakh crore ($16.2 billion) of bonds this quarter under its government securities acquisition programme.

“The way the market moves will depend on supply and how much the RBI buys in its so-called GSAP purchases,” said Rajeev Pawar, head of treasury at Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Ltd in Mumbai. “It’s pure supply and demand driven right now. The market is not in a bearish mode, but completely in a holding pattern.”



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