Pivotal week for Indian traders may pave way for foreign inflows

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Indian investors face a crucial week with announcements due on a key index review for the nation’s bonds and also on the government’s borrowing plan for the next six months.

FTSE Russell will announce its annual review for equity and fixed-income markets on Thursday, with Indian debt already on a watchlist for potential upgrading. While the government has yet to say when it will announce its next borrowing program, officials from the central bank and finance ministry will decide the plan on Monday, people familiar have said.

“This week will lay the ground for the second half of the year, and could be an inflection point for the markets,” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. in Mumbai. “Bond index inclusion could be a game changer for India, luring massive foreign inflows.”

G-secs react to the beginning of Fed taper

The rupee has declined about 1 per cent this month so far, and is among Asia’s worst performers, as the Fed’s hawkish pivot strengthened the dollar, even as the Reserve Bank of India has maintained its easy stance. A potential inclusion by FTSE Russell may pave the way for big foreign inflows and burnish the rupee and bonds.

The rupee appears poised for more near-term losses against the greenback given the currency pair’s slow stochastics, a momentum indicator, signalling it is still not in the oversold territory against the dollar. However, any further losses may be limited given initial rupee support around 74 level.

Bond markets await RBI move

Indian bonds are already heading for the biggest monthly gain since April, and may get a further boost if the government decides to cut back borrowing for the second half of the fiscal year as revenue improves.

Index addition looks more imminent after a finance ministry official earlier this month said the nation has completed most of the work required to be a part of the global benchmarks

India’s inclusion in the global bond indexes, expected by early 2022, may attract as much as $250 billion of inflows in the next decade, according to Morgan Stanley, which sees the 10-year bond yields to ease to 5.85 per cent in 2022 from 6.18 per cent on Friday. The move may lead to the rupee gaining by more than 1.5 per cent to 72.50 per dollar, from Friday’s close, according to HDFC Securities Ltd.

Indian bonds are also under review for inclusion by JPMorgan Chase & Co., which typically assesses its index this month, while Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. last week said there is currently no estimated timeline in place for India’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.

An index inclusion “could be a big trigger, leading to rapid appreciation in the rupee,” said Dilip Parmar, analyst at HDFC Securities. “The central bank may not be too aggressive in buying or selling dollars, and may give time for the rupee to adjust to the market.”

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Panels to scrutinize all cooperative gold loans in Tamil Nadu, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MADURAI: Special teams constituted to scrutinize gold loans provided by cooperative societies across the state have to complete 100% scrutiny of all loans and submit their reports to the concerned regional registrar of cooperative societies by November 15.

The regional joint registrars would submit their compiled reports on the status of the loans in their regions to Registrar of Cooperative Societies, Chennai by November 20.

This was stated in a communication dated September 24 from the registrar to the managing director, Central Cooperative Bank, Chennai, regional registrars and other officials. It said the chief minister had announced under Rule 110 of the Assembly that all eligible gold loans up to five sovereigns obtained through cooperative societies would be waived. But it has been detected that misappropriations have taken place in providing these gold loans and hence it has been decided to scrutinize the loans provided through the societies.

According to the chief minister’s announcement in the Assembly, the state would incur an expenditure of Rs 6,000 crore due to the waiver. The registrar has said that all gold loans that had been obtained till March 31, 2021 and from April 1, 2021 to the date of scrutiny should be reviewed 100%.

Committees comprising joint registrars of the societies should decide on the number of gold appraisers needed for the scrutiny and form committees.

Cooperative societies in each region would be scrutinized by teams from the neighbouring region. For example, Trichy region would be reviewed by officials from Ariyalur, Karur by Dindigul, Theni region by officials from Madurai etc..



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IL&FS and ITNL looking to replace auditor SRBC & Co, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) and subsidiary IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd (ITNL) are evaluating replacement of auditor SRBC & Co, an EY affiliate, as their statutory auditor, after a damning audit quality review report by the National Financial Reporting Authority.

The 343-page report released on Thursday said SRBC did not raise red flags in critical areas like going concern, evaluation of ITNL’s investments and loans.

Responding to ET’s query, IL&FS said discussions were ongoing around the continuation or otherwise of the auditor, and that the audit committee would soon take a call.

“So far neither IL&FS/ITNL has asked SRBC to resign, nor has SRBC offered to resign. This is under examination and is being referred to the audit committee of ITNL for appropriate recommendation to the board of ITNL,” IL&FS spokesperson Sharad Goel said.

EY did not respond till Sunday press time to an email seeking comment, sent on Friday evening.

The National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA), part of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, has gone into detail how the auditor did not interpret some of the accounting entries as they ought to be.

This would mean that the financial statements prepared by ITNL and approved by the auditor did not represent the real picture.

This development comes at a time when IL&FS’ government-appointed board is trying to sell ITNL’s assets.



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What are stablecoins, and how stable are they?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Manpreet Kaur

Stablecoin, a type of cryptocurrency, attempts to offer the best of both worlds – privacy of payments in cryptocurrencies and stable valuations of fiat currencies.

Tether, the first and the most popular stablecoin pegged against the US dollar, is pegged at $1 today, with a market cap of $68.7 billion.

What are stablecoins, and how stable are they?

What do stablecoins offer?

The coin aims to offer price stability, and is backed by a reserve asset – like the US dollar and gold.

Stablecoins, such as Tether that are backed by the dollar, remove transaction costs and delays that impair trade execution within the market.

It achieves price stability through collateralization or algorithmic mechanisms of buying and selling the reference asset or its derivatives.

Relatively, stablecoins are among the safer crypto assets to invest in. For instance, when $600 million was stolen from PolyNetwork last month, Tether simply froze the $33 million of its tokens that were included in the heist, which turned out to be useless to the attacker.

Stablecoins attempt to be highly liquid and tradable, making them easy to exchange into other cryptocurrencies or fiat currencies if desired.

It can help the investor manage volatility in a cryptocurrency market.

Given that they’re a stable currency, stablecoins provide an easy payment flow, which businesses can use to securely send money to their employees .

What are stablecoins, and how stable are they?

Are stablecoins volatile?

Though stablecoins are relatively less volatile than other cryptos, the coin remains to function like any other asset class – meaning it is not 100% risk averse.

Stablecoins are only as stable as their underlying asset. For instance, for stablecoins pegged 1:1 against the dollar, its solvency relies upon the strength of its reserves, which only include 3.87% of cash.

Risks of volatility in a coin’s trading volume and general market volatility remain in stablecoins, just as how it is present in other crypto assets.

Another aspect where the volatility can kick in, is if the stablecoin is centralised or decentralised. A centralised stablecoin, such as Tether, is held by an entity or exchange, while a decentralised stablecoin is hosted on a public programmable blockchain like Ethereum.

In decentralised stablecoins, large amounts of decentralised collateral such as Ether is infused to stabilise dollars, and blockchains like Ethereum can’t be controlled by an external actor.

One of the risks with stablecoins that have a central authority is trusting a third party to maintain their supply of dollars equal to the supply of stablecoins, which can be seen as going against the concept of decentralisation.

According to research firm Santiment’s data, Tether’s price remained largely stable but not all the time.

In November 2017, Tether was allegedly hacked with $31 million worth of coins stolen, and in January 2018, it hit another hurdle as the necessary audit to ensure that the real-world reserve is maintained never took place. This made the price fluctuate from $1 to $0.86 in 2018. These two incidents were among the major ones that pulled the price of Tether below $1.

Click here to read our coverage on cryptocurrency



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What are stablecoins, and how stable are they?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Manpreet Kaur

Stablecoin, a type of cryptocurrency, attempts to offer the best of both worlds – privacy of payments in cryptocurrencies and stable valuations of fiat currencies.

Tether, the first and the most popular stablecoin pegged against the US dollar, is pegged at $1 today, with a market cap of $68.7 billion.

What do stablecoins offer?

The coin aims to offer price stability, and is backed by a reserve asset – like the US dollar and gold.

Stablecoins, such as Tether that are backed by the dollar, remove transaction costs and delays that impair trade execution within the market.

It achieves price stability through collateralization or algorithmic mechanisms of buying and selling the reference asset or its derivatives.

Relatively, stablecoins are among the safer crypto assets to invest in. For instance, when $600 million was stolen from PolyNetwork last month, Tether simply froze the $33 million of its tokens that were included in the heist, which turned out to be useless to the attacker.

Stablecoins attempt to be highly liquid and tradable, making them easy to exchange into other cryptocurrencies or fiat currencies if desired.

It can help the investor manage volatility in a cryptocurrency market.

Given that they’re a stable currency, stablecoins provide an easy payment flow, which businesses can use to securely send money to their employees .

What are stablecoins, and how stable are they?

Are stablecoins volatile?

Though stablecoins are relatively less volatile than other cryptos, the coin remains to function like any other asset class – meaning it is not 100% risk averse.

Stablecoins are only as stable as their underlying asset. For instance, for stablecoins pegged 1:1 against the dollar, its solvency relies upon the strength of its reserves, which only include 3.87% of cash.

Risks of volatility in a coin’s trading volume and general market volatility remain in stablecoins, just as how it is present in other crypto assets.

Another aspect where the volatility can kick in, is if the stablecoin is centralised or decentralised. A centralised stablecoin, such as Tether, is held by an entity or exchange, while a decentralised stablecoin is hosted on a public programmable blockchain like Ethereum.

In decentralised stablecoins, large amounts of decentralised collateral such as Ether is infused to stabilise dollars, and blockchains like Ethereum can’t be controlled by an external actor.

One of the risks with stablecoins that have a central authority is trusting a third party to maintain their supply of dollars equal to the supply of stablecoins, which can be seen as going against the concept of decentralisation.

According to research firm Santiment’s data, Tether’s price remained largely stable but not all the time.

In November 2017, Tether was allegedly hacked with $31 million worth of coins stolen, and in January 2018, it hit another hurdle as the necessary audit to ensure that the real-world reserve is maintained never took place. This made the price fluctuate from $1 to $0.86 in 2018. These two incidents were among the major ones that pulled the price of Tether below $1.

Click here to read our coverage on cryptocurrency



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Bankers back to college to learn data analytics, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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– By Nidhi Chugh and Ishwari Chavan

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed lenders to digitise their banking services, which has resulted in a rise in demand for employees to have a data science skill set.

Currently, 2.5 billion users across the world use banking services digitally, and 53% of the global population will opt for digital banking by 2026, a study by UK-based research firm Juniper Research had said.

Data driven banking – bankers are reskilling themselves

When Dinesh Khara took over as the chairman of State Bank of India a year ago, he said, his focus will be on analytics.

The demand for data science and data analytics professionals is possibly going to double, more than 2,00,000 as mentioned officially, mostly because of the emergence of neobanks, said Robin Bhowmik, chief business officer of Manipal Global Academy of BFSI, in an interaction with ETBFSI.

Manipal Global, started in 2008, offers various programmes to reskill banking employees, or train budding ones.

On an average, Manipal Global has trained one out of five bankers in the country, with over 2,50,000 bankers opting for various courses, Bhowmik said.

A total 15,000-20,000 bankers are trained every year by the academy.

This month, the academy launched its school of data science, where they will teach data engineering, data handling, impact analysis, python courses, in partnership with Axis Bank.

“The whole area of impact analysis within a banking setup is very fundamental to any data science field. We are also training them in a lot of simulations using tools like Python for example, which is one of the more popular open source tools, essentially used in this area,” Bhowmik said.

Apart from partnership with Axis Bank, Bhowmik said that he is in talks with another bank to further expand the course’s reach. The name of the bank was not mentioned during the interview.

Manipal Global also offers short term courses, remote courses, and other full-time courses, such as courses on FinTech.

Bankers back to college to learn data analytics
Surging demand for data science courses – what’s on the table

Prior to the official launch of the data science school, Bhowmik said that the course has already gathered interest from 500 candidates, and there is an application backlog of around 6,000 students.

“The intention is to have a batch of about 35 to 40 every alternate month. So Axis bank alone, I think wants about 120 people through this channel by March,” Bhowmik said.

After completion of the course, the candidate will be evaluated and hired by Axis Bank.

“The bank’s digital strategy is heavily focused towards adopting various data and analytics programs. Hyper personalisation is one such program – data science will be one of the key enablers, starting to identify different customer persona, anticipate their needs and recommend accordingly,” Balaji N, president and head of the Business Intelligence Unit at Axis Bank, said via email responses to ETBFSI.

How will candidates use these skills

After the course, the employee will be able to deploy business intelligence as a function, use data analytics in KYC processes, help in data hygiene – building databases for customer behaviour and customer segmentation.

“Other than simplification of customer journeys on our platform, we are also focusing on building future-ready capabilities, such as integrating alternate unconventional data for risk-moderated business expansion and greater usage of cloud for data engineering and data science workload,” Balaji said.

India’s “youth bulge” is expected to benefit sectors across the board, and even more so for BFSI with the rising importance of data in digital payments.

India’s “youth bulge” is expected to benefit sectors across the board, and even more so for BFSI with the rising importance of data in digital payments.



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Buy & Sell Stock Ideas For Sept 27, 2021

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Investment

oi-Sunil Fernandes

|

Domestic sentiments are buoyant as economic recovery is faster than expected and is well reflected in improving macro-data points.

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, In addition, strong liquidity, falling Covid-19 cases, healthy vaccination drive, upbeat corporate commentaries and low cost of capital too provided support to this rally.

“However the valuations have reached stratospheric levels especially for lot of the desired high quality names across sectors. Thus bottom-up stock picking approach is becoming difficult for investors. Traders should have cautious approach as intermittent volatility cannot be ignored given such rich valuations. However we expect the positive momentum to continue on the back of recovery in corporate earnings,” he states. Here are a few buy and sell stock ideas for traders for Sept 27, 2021.

1) Dr. Ravi Singh, Founder and Director, DRS Advisory
India Cement: Buy at Rs 186, Target Rs 198, Stop Loss Rs 18
Tata Chemicals: Buy at Rs 883, Target Rs 900 Stop Loss Rs 182
IDFC: Buy at Rs 55, Target Rs 60, Stop Loss Rs 52

2) Manoj Dalmia, Founder and Director, Proficient Equities Private Limited

Tata Chemicals: Buy at Rs 886, Target Rs 915, Stop Loss Rs 877.

3) Sandeep Matta, Founder TradeIT Investment Advisor

Sun TV: Buy at Rs 510, Target Rs 525-538, Stop Loss Rs 490

Bharat Forge: Buy at Rs 750, Target Rs 790 Stop Loss Rs 725

4) Kapil Goenka, Founder at Eternity Financial Services

ITC: Buy at Rs 238, Target Rs 250, Stop Loss Rs 233

Buy & Sell Stock Ideas For Sept 27, 2021

Disclaimer

Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage houses are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article. The above article is for informational purposes only.

Story first published: Monday, September 27, 2021, 8:10 [IST]



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Recurring card payments to be hit from next month, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Some cardholders might see standing instructions for payment on their credit card fail from next month. These could be for subscriptions with online content platforms, edtech companies or standing instructions for online advertisement payments. Some of these merchants are yet to comply with RBI’s new requirement of additional factor authentication (OTP) for recurring payments through cards though the deadline is less than a week away.

According to sources, around 75% of the banks have put in place the technology to meet RBI’s directive. However, there are some banks and merchants who are still in wait-and-watch mode. Banks are writing to customers, warning that some transactions may fail: “Effective October 1, 2021, the bank will not approve any standing instruction (e-mandate on cards for recurring transactions) given at merchant website/app on HDFC Bank credit/debit card, unless it is as per RBI-compliant process.” The bank has recommended that customers use its bill-pay option for utilities or pay on the biller’s website using OTP.

According to Razorpay, which processes close to a third of all recurring payment transactions, a dozen banks have already put in place the new setup where even for repeat payments the bank will alert the customer a day in advance and also provide them with a link to discontinue the mandate. “In the short term, there may be some disruption but, in the long term, this move by the RBI can take growth in recurring payment mandates off the charts,” said Razorpay chief technology officer and co-founder Shashank Kumar.

Kumar says the RBI directive addresses two key issues. Earlier, discontinuing a standing instruction to a merchant could be extremely cumbersome with some asking for a letter to be sent by post asking to discontinue the subscription. Second, debit cards were a grey area and recurring payments were done largely in credit cards. Incidentally, even after October 1, international mandates will continue as neither banks nor the RBI has jurisdiction over international billers.

“There are 900 million debit cards in India and their inclusion could increase the market multifold,” said Kumar. According to Kumar, by empowering customers to stop the payments at any time, the RBI has increased the confidence level. This could also make online education or entertainment more affordable as the availability of this facility will encourage providers to have a monthly debit model rather than recover annual fees.

Besides requiring banks to alert customers, the RBI has capped automatic debits at Rs 5,000 per month. This would mean that billers, like insurance companies, with large instalments, would need to increase the frequency to enable auto-debit. In the case of utilities, many online payers use their bank’s bill payment platform for standing instructions and will have no impact.



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Recurring card payments to be hit from next month, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Some cardholders might see standing instructions for payment on their credit card fail from next month. These could be for subscriptions with online content platforms, edtech companies or standing instructions for online advertisement payments. Some of these merchants are yet to comply with RBI’s new requirement of additional factor authentication (OTP) for recurring payments through cards though the deadline is less than a week away.

According to sources, around 75% of the banks have put in place the technology to meet RBI’s directive. However, there are some banks and merchants who are still in wait-and-watch mode. Banks are writing to customers, warning that some transactions may fail: “Effective October 1, 2021, the bank will not approve any standing instruction (e-mandate on cards for recurring transactions) given at merchant website/app on HDFC Bank credit/debit card, unless it is as per RBI-compliant process.” The bank has recommended that customers use its bill-pay option for utilities or pay on the biller’s website using OTP.

According to Razorpay, which processes close to a third of all recurring payment transactions, a dozen banks have already put in place the new setup where even for repeat payments the bank will alert the customer a day in advance and also provide them with a link to discontinue the mandate. “In the short term, there may be some disruption but, in the long term, this move by the RBI can take growth in recurring payment mandates off the charts,” said Razorpay chief technology officer and co-founder Shashank Kumar.

Kumar says the RBI directive addresses two key issues. Earlier, discontinuing a standing instruction to a merchant could be extremely cumbersome with some asking for a letter to be sent by post asking to discontinue the subscription. Second, debit cards were a grey area and recurring payments were done largely in credit cards. Incidentally, even after October 1, international mandates will continue as neither banks nor the RBI has jurisdiction over international billers.

“There are 900 million debit cards in India and their inclusion could increase the market multifold,” said Kumar. According to Kumar, by empowering customers to stop the payments at any time, the RBI has increased the confidence level. This could also make online education or entertainment more affordable as the availability of this facility will encourage providers to have a monthly debit model rather than recover annual fees.

Besides requiring banks to alert customers, the RBI has capped automatic debits at Rs 5,000 per month. This would mean that billers, like insurance companies, with large instalments, would need to increase the frequency to enable auto-debit. In the case of utilities, many online payers use their bank’s bill payment platform for standing instructions and will have no impact.



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India needs 4-5 more large banks of SBI’s size: Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman

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The minister asked the IBA to conduct a digitised mapping of bank branches in each district of the country. (File)

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday India requires at least 4-5 more large banks like State Bank of India (SBI) to support the growing credit appetite of a fast-recuperating economy in the post-Covid world.

Addressing the 74th annual general meeting of the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) in Mumbai, the minister said the economy is on a reset mode after the devastation caused by the pandemic. Banks, being the backbone of the financial system, would have to continue to play a critical role in supporting the economy’s resurgence, the minister said. Non-food credit growth remained far from satisfaction and stood at 6.2% in July 2021, against 6.4% a year earlier.

Already, the wide-scale consolidation exercise in the public-sector banking space in recent years has created some large lenders with strong balance-sheet to lend to big projects. Thanks to the amalgamation exercise, the number of state-run banks has come down from 27 in 2017 to 12 now.

She also asked lenders to firm up models to better focus on exporters.

“Be nimble, agile, adaptive, it is a must for attaining $2-trillion export (both goods and services) target for 2030,” she told bankers.

As for funding infrastructure projects, the minister said the proposed development financial institution is coming up soon.

Banking activities need to be scaled up substantially to ensure all business centres in the country are covered with physical or digital banking presence.

In the post-pandemic world, banks need to change the way they undertake their businesses. Since digitisation has changed the way of doing businesses, banks will have to innovate and keep pace with evolving technology, she said.

The minister asked the IBA to conduct a digitised mapping of bank branches in each district of the country. This would help identify the areas that need greater banking presence.

Sitharaman said: “Not necessary to have physical banking presence everywhere. The country’s optic fibre network has covered two-third of about 7.5 lakh panchayats. This could be used to deliver banking services in unconnected areas as well.”

“If we look at post-Covid scenario, India’s banking contour will have to be very unique to India, where there has been an extremely successful adoption of digitization. While banks in many countries could not reach out to their clients during the pandemic, the level of digitization of Indian banks helped us to transfer money to small, medium and big account holders through DBT and digital mechanisms,” she said.

The minister appreciated the efforts of the public-sector banks in implementing the amalgamation exercise even during the pandemic period and completing it without causing any inconvenience to customers.

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