‘Buy’ This Stock For 17.1% Upside With A Target Price Of Rs. 275, In 1 Year

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Target Price

The Current Market Price (CMP) of Petronet LNG is Rs. 235. The brokerage firm has estimated a Target Price for the stock at Rs. 275. The stock is expected to give a 17.1% return, in a Target Period of 12 months.

Stock Outlook
Current Market Price (CMP) Rs. 235
Target Price Rs. 275
1 year return 17.10%

Company performance

Company performance

Petronet LNG’s standalone adjusted Q2FY22 EBITDA/APAT was at Rs. 13.6bn/Rs8.72bn. Its EBITDA was higher due to an 8%/11% beat in volumes/margins, driven by gross spreads. The Dahej terminal operated at 101% capacity (vs. 93% est), while long-term volumes also rose 15% QoQ to 102tbtu. Adjusted EBITDA/ mmbtu increased by 6% YoY/13% QoQ to Rs. 56.8. However, the company’s total volumes dropped by 6% YoY but increased by 15% QoQ.

Comments by Emkay Global

Comments by Emkay Global

According to Emkay Global, the company’s “Volumes are above expectation; valuation is attractive. We cut FY22E EPS by 5% due to the impact of the spot LNG spike, though we raise our FY23-24E EPS marginally. We raise the Dec’22 TP by 2% to Rs. 275 from Rs. 270 as we roll over to Dec’23E from Sep’23E. Maintain Buy but with an OW stance.” the firm added, “Key risks are adverse petroleum/gas prices, slowdown, competition and capital mis-allocation.”

About the company

About the company

The Company had set up South East Asia’s first LNG Receiving and Re-gasification Terminal with an original nameplate capacity of 5 MMTPA at Dahej, Gujarat. The capacity of the terminal has been expanded in phases which is currently 15 MMTPA and the same is under expansion to 17.5 MMTPA. The terminal has 6 LNG storage tanks, and other vaporization facilities. The terminal is meeting around 40% of the total gas demand of the country.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock has been picked from the brokerage report of Emkay Global. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Manappuram Finance Q2 net profit declines at Rs370 crore

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Manappuram Finance Ltd has reported a consolidated net profit of ₹370 crore for the second quarter of FY 22. The profit is lower by 8.8 per cent compared to ₹ 405.44 crore reported in the year-ago quarter.

However, the company’s consolidated assets under management (AUM) grew by 5.7 per cent to ₹28,421.63 crore from ₹26,902.73 crores a year ago, and by 14.8 per cent in comparison to ₹24,755.99 crore reported in the preceding quarter (Q1).

Net profit for the standalone entity (which excludes subsidiaries) was at ₹355.00 crore against ₹405.56 crore in the year-ago quarter. Total consolidated operating income for the quarter amounted to ₹1,531.92 crore compared to ₹1,565.58 crores in the year ago quarter.

The Board approved payment of interim dividend of ₹ 0.75 per share with face value of ₹2.

V P Nandakumar, MD & CEO, Manappuram Finance Ltd said, “The key takeaway is the robust growth recorded during the quarter in our business volumes, be it gold loans, microfinance, or our home and vehicle loans portfolio. It reflects the emerging recovery in the rural and unorganized sectors of the economy and going forward we expect to sustain the growth along with improved profitability.”

The company’s gold loan portfolio stood at ₹18,719.53 crores, registering a strong growth of 13.2 per cent over ₹16,539.51 crores in the preceding quarter. The number of live gold loan customers increased from 24.1 lakh to 25.1 lakh in this period.

The subsidiary, Asirvad Microfinance ended the quarter with an AUM of ₹7,162.49 crore, a sharp increase of 44.1 per cent in comparison to ₹4,971.03 crore in the year ago quarter. The home loans subsidiary, Manappuram Home Finance Ltd., reported an AUM of ₹732.19 crore (₹620.62 crore in Q2 of FY2021) while its Vehicles & Equipment Finance division posted an AUM of ₹1,267.08 crore (₹1,062.28 crore in Q2 of FY2021). In aggregate, the company’s non-gold loan businesses account for a 34 per cent share of its consolidated AUM.

Average borrowing costs for the standalone entity declined by 67 basis points to 7.94 per cent during the quarter. The gross NPA (standalone) stood at 1.59 per cent with net NPA reported at 1.30 per cent The company’s consolidated net worth stood at ₹7,967.90 crores as of September 30, 2021. The book value per share was at₹94.14 and its capital adequacy ratio (standalone) stood at 31.84 per cent.

On a consolidated basis, the total borrowings of the company stood at ₹25,024.14 crores while the total number of live customers was 52.11 lakh as of September 30, 2021.

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Manappuram Finance Q2 net profit declines 8.8% to Rs 370 crore

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The Kerala-based lender, which also operates a home loan, microfinance and commercial vehicle-leasing subsidiary, has reported a standalone net profit of Rs 355 crore, a decline of 12.47% from Rs 405.56 crore reported in the year-ago quarter.

NBFC Manappuram Finance on Saturday reported a 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in its consolidated net profit for the second quarter at Rs 369.88 crore. The non-banking financial company (NBFC) had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 405.44 crore in Q2 of FY21.

However, the company’s consolidated assets under management (AUM) grew by 5.7% to Rs 28,421.63 crore from Rs 26,902.73 crore a year ago, and by 14.8% in comparison to Rs 24,755.99 crore reported in the preceding quarter (Q1).

The Kerala-based lender, which also operates a home loan, microfinance and commercial vehicle-leasing subsidiary, has reported a standalone net profit of Rs 355 crore, a decline of 12.47% from Rs 405.56 crore reported in the year-ago quarter. In aggregate, the company’s non-gold loan businesses account for a 34% share of its consolidated AUM.

Sharing the results with the media, V P Nandakumar, MD & CEO, said, “The key takeaway is the robust growth recorded during the quarter in our business volumes, be it gold loans, microfinance, or our home and vehicle loans portfolio. It reflects the emerging recovery in the rural and unorganised sectors of the economy and going forward, we expect to sustain the growth along with improved profitability.”

The company’s gold loan portfolio stood at Rs 18,719.53 crore, registering a strong growth of 13.2%, over Rs 16,539.51 crore in the preceding first quarter. The number of live gold loan customers increased to 25.1 lakh from 24.1 lakh in the first quarter.

The gross non-performing assets (standalone) stood at 1.59% with net NPA reported at 1.30%.

Average borrowing costs for the standalone entity declined by 67 basis points during the quarter, to 7.94%.

The board also appointed Shailesh Jayantilal Mehta as the chairperson of the company.

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Policy rate cuts transmission higher for depositors than borrowers

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Interest rates for borrowers and depositors have been on a downward march since February 2019, when the current easing cycle first began. But data from the RBI suggest that while the reduction in policy rates has not been entirely passed on to borrowers, depositors have seen deeper cuts on their returns, with the transmission being faster for them.

With the rate cycle expected to turn sooner than later, further transmission to borrowers seem unlikely, while depositors may begin to see higher returns when policy rates move up.

Further drop unlikely

While repo rate was cumulatively cut by 250 basis points (bps) since February 2019, the weighted average lending rates (WALR) on all outstanding bank loans fell by just 118 bps, until August 2021.

However, RBI’s sector-wise data on WALR (outstanding loans) reveal faster transmission of rate cuts in the lending rates for large industries, infrastructure, trade, and professional services — in the range of 181 to 226 bps, over March 2019 to August 2021. On the other hand, the WALR on retail loans such as housing, vehicle and education loans dropped only by 98 to 185 bps. MSMEs also saw a fall of just 182 bps in their WALR (outstanding loans).

In the past, the transmission of policy rate cuts to lending rates have been more sluggish, thanks to the banks’ reliance on internal benchmarks, that is, their own cost of funds. However, the RBI, in 2019-20, mandated banks to move to an external benchmark for select loan categories. These include all new floating rate personal or retail loans and floating rate loans to micro, medium and small enterprises (MSMEs).

Following this, the share of external benchmark-linked loans in total outstanding floating rate bank loans increased from 2.4 per cent in September 2019 to 32 per cent in June 2021. Owing to this, the WALR on fresh rupee loans offered by banks, dropped by 190 bps (vs 118 bps on an overall level) during February 2019 to August 2021. However, with Marginal Cost of Funds Based Lending Rate (MCLR) based loans still accounting for a lion’s share of 60 per cent of overall floating rate loans, the transmission of rate cuts is slower on an outstanding loans level (118bps as discussed above).

Much of the funds that banks lend to borrowers comes from depositors – including low cost Current Accounts and Saving Accounts (CASA). On the other hand, banks’ reliance on RBI’s repo operations is as low as 10 per cent. The current share of MCLR-based loans – 60 per cent of outstanding floating rate loans – makes it more difficult for banks to pass on the repo rate cuts to borrowers.

Hence, industry experts feel much of the drop in interest rates has already been given effect to and a further drop is highly unlikely.

 

Upturn to help depositors

With inflation data in the US for October coming in at a 31-year high of 6.2 per cent, markets in the US are now pricing in two rate hikes next year as against zero expectations of a hike a few months back.

In India, too, core inflation continues to remain sticky. Domestic inflation apart, the RBI may also have to consider interest rate hikes to defend the domestic currency. Given these factors, a turn in the interest rate cycle in India is expected sooner than later. This may be good news for depositors as, compared with lending rates, deposit rates move faster with change in policy rates. In the ongoing down cycle, weighted average domestic term deposit rates were slashed by 180 bps from February 2019 to August 2021, which is higher than the fall in lending rates during the same period.

Basis the data compiled by Bankbazaar.com on interest rates offered on bank deposits, the rate reduction of deposits of private banks was in the range of 75 to 285 bps on deposits with a tenure of less than two years compared with just 110 to 160 bps decline in rates offered by public sector banks, for similar tenures, during the same period.

Deposit rates of small finance banks too fell sharply — in the range of 175 to 275 bps — for deposits with tenure of less than two years.

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Fino Payments Bank Q2 net profit up 74.5%

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Fino Payments Bank reported a 74.5 per cent increase in its net profit for the second quarter of the fiscal at Rs 7.89 crore. In the same period last fiscal its net profit was Rs 4.52 crore .

Its total income increased by 35.1 per cent to Rs 242.15 crore in the July to September 2021 quarter as against Rs 179.2 crore a year ago.

Net interest income increased by 29.9 per cent to Rs 3.61 crore in the quarter ended September 30, 2021 from Rs 2.78 crore in the same period last fiscal.

Other income also increased by 34.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis to Rs 235.11 crore in the second quarter of the fiscal.

“Revenue grew by 35 per cent year-on-year on the back of a growth of 32 per cent in transaction revenue, 43 per cent in subscription income and 35 per cent in open banking,” Fino Payments Bank said in a statement on Saturday.

Rishi Gupta, Managing Director and CEO, Fino Payments Bank said, “Our growth momentum in transaction volumes and throughput continues to be strong. Consumer behaviour towards convenience banking is gaining impetus.”

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PM-chaired meeting expresses concern over crypto ads

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The government on Saturday indicated steps against aggressive advertisement on cryptocurrency. The issue was discussed in a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“It was strongly felt that attempts to mislead the youth through over-promising & non-transparent advertising should be stopped,” a government source said. It was also felt that unregulated crypto markets cannot be left to become avenues for money laundering and terror financing.

This stance has come at a time when the Centre is preparing a legislation to be introduced during the Winter Session of Parliament.

A joint advertisement by Indian Crypto exchanges and industry bodies said that investment by Indians in Indian assets have crossed ₹6-lakh crore. There are reports, quoting research firm CREBACO, suggesting that the user base has number of crypto investors have crossed 10 crores. Keeping these numbers in mind, meeting chaired by the Prime Minister has become important.

Sources said that Saturday meeting on the way forward for cryptocurrency and related issues was a very comprehensive one. “It was also an outcome of a consultative process as RBI, Finance Ministry, Home Ministry had done an elaborate exercise on it as well as consulted experts from across the country and the world. Global examples and best practices were also looked at,” source said.

According to him, the Government is cognizant of the fact that this is an evolving technology hence the government will keep a close watch and take proactive steps. There was consensus also that the steps taken in this field by the Government will be progressive & forward looking. “Government will continue to pro-actively engage with the experts and other stakeholders. Since the issue cuts across individual countries’ borders, it was felt that it will also require global partnerships and collective strategies,” source said.

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How a single woman can achieve retirement goals with ease

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Meenakshi, aged 48, is single and wanted to ensure she retires when she turned 60. Her goals were limited. She had enough resources and cash flow from her point of view.

But she was a bit apprehensive on her financial condition towards satisfying her needs and wants. Her assets and cash-flow statement are listed below (see table).

At her age of 48, at first look this seems to be a reasonably sound net worth. The value of land parcels will only be known when she sells. Being single, she felt uncomfortable holding such land parcels. She felt that her relatives were expecting some ‘goodwill’ out of every sale of land. This increased the uncertainty factor in the net worth calculation. To please her relatives she felt she had an emotional binding to do what they expected.

Her expenses, at the time of planning, were ₹60,000 per month. On a relative scale, for a middle-class woman this definitely is above average. But she was not willing to compromise on her lifestyle. In addition to this, being an avid traveller, she would incur ₹2 lakh every year when her travel plans resume.

We analysed her risk profile, and the results showed her appetite in “balanced” category. She was able to appreciate long-term investing and the risks associated with that.

Review & recommendations

1. Emergency fund should to be maintained as fixed deposits for ₹7.2 lakh

2. Medical emergency fund to be maintained as liquid funds would be for ₹10 lakh. Being taxed only at redemption, these funds would help her in tax efficiency.

3. Her high priority goal was retirement at her age of 60. At current cost, her expenses in the first month of retirement would be ₹1,35,131 at 7 per cent inflation. She wanted to plan for her retirement corpus with a life expectancy of 90, post retirement inflation of 7 per cent, and expected return of 8 per cent.

4. To ensure adequate financial assets are in place to aid retirement life, salary income, provident fund accumulations (PPF and EPF) and previously held mutual fund investments were stringed together. This should provide her a corpus of ₹2,71,36,851. But her retirement corpus requirement would be ₹4,26,46,779. She was advised to invest ₹57,000 per month through systematic investments in equity mutual funds till her retirement age of 60.

5. She was advised to invest ₹10 lakh from cash in hand towards her “post retirement hobbies fund” in equity mutual funds.

6. If she continues her employment, she would be able to comfortably reach her goals of retirement, health and vacation needs by way of financial assets assuming she adopts the above-mentioned suggestions.

7. She was also advised to exit her real estate assets in a phased manner and accumulate in financial assets.

8. She will be using these sale proceeds partially to fund education needs of her relatives’ children and to other needy group over the next 10-12 years. This will help her manage her time post retirement. She was advised to establish a charitable or private trust to manage the activities if she plans it as a continuous activity.

9. She also wanted to contribute to the society in building social infrastructure at her hometown with her income in future. Ensuring adequate liquidity by way of optimum exposure to financial assets would help her to stabilise her post retirement life. She would be devoid of liquidity issues and emotional issues mentioned earlier. By consolidating her immovable assets, she would be in a position to provide for her nobler goals. This would in turn help her to spend time on such activities without having to carry the burden of liquidating immovable assets at short notices.

The writer, Founder of Chamomile Investment Consultants in Chennai, is an investment advisor registered with SEBI

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Tax Query: How to save real estate capital gain?

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I have a house and a flat, and the same are declared in my IT returns every year. Last financial year, I have sold a plot (purchased during 2004-05) at a profit. I have opened a capital gains account and invested the entire proceeds in the capital gains account. Out of the sale proceeds, I have used about 85 per cent for booking a flat in Bangalore. The new flat is not yet registered. The balance amount in capital gains account is equal to my plot’s original cost. I need guidance on the following:

(A) Can I claim exemption from tax on capital gains, since I have used the proceeds from sale for purchase of property (booking advance)? Is capital gains tax applicable for my sale transaction since I have used the proceeds from sale for purchase of property (booking advance)? (B) I understand that I have to pay capital gains tax since I have two properties in my name, as per prevailing IT rules. But it is to be noted that the third property (new flat) is not yet registered. If capital gains tax is applicable, can I gift the property to my wife by making settlement deed before filing IT return for FY 2020-21, so that I remain a owner of only two properties (including new one)? (C) Also, please suggest whether I can remit back the amount withdrawn from the capital gain accounts and avoid capital gains tax?

Satyanarayana KS

A) Capital gain (CG) tax provisions shall apply on sale of plot under Income tax Act, 1961 (the Act). You are eligible to claim the tax deduction under section 54F of the Act from the capital gains earned, by investing the net sale consideration in buying the residential house property, provided you don’t own more than one residential house property (excluding the new property) on the date of transfer of the plot. As you own more than one residential house property (house and flat) on the date of sale of plot of land, you may not be eligible to claim this exemption. We would also like to add that you may still claim the deduction under section 54EC of the Act upon investing making investment in specified bonds (including National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) or Rural Electrification Corporation Limited bonds) up to ₹50 lakh. Such investment should be made within six months from the date of transfer of such capital asset and the lock-in period is five years. The option of depositing the capital gains in CGAS is not available for exemption in this category.

B) There are two transactions here. One is sale of plot and the other is gifting of property. Gifting of immovable property to your spouse is exempt under section 56 (1) (x) of the Act. Your spouse is not required to pay tax on such gifts. In order to claim exemption under Sec. 54F, as mentioned earlier, the crucial point is the date of sale. If on the date of transfer of the plot you own more than one house property then, you will not be eligible to claim exemption.

C) LTCG could be deposited in Capital Gain Account Scheme (CGAS) for the purpose of utilising the money in making the requisite investments. However, such deposits should be made on or before the due date of filing the tax return. There are specific conditions for transferring / withdrawing the amount from CGAS account or closure of such account whereby you are required to complete certain formalities with your banker. Further, if the amount remains unutilised after expiry of prescribed period of time, then the amount not so utilised shall be charged as capital gains of the year in which the prescribed period expires.

The writer is Partner, Deloitte India

Send your queries to taxtalk@thehindu.co.in

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3 important things to note about NPS annuity

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The National Pension System (NPS) is one of the preferred retirement options, thanks to its low cost structure and tax advantage. But one thing that concerns investors is the mandatory requirement to lock into an annuity product on exit. The requirement to purchase an annuity is for providing a monthly pension after retirement. If you are planning to enter the NPS or are an existing subscriber reaching your retirement age, here are some of the important factors to know about the annuity product.

Under all citizens model, for subscribers on turning 60, it is mandatory to buy an annuity plan with at least 40 percent of the NPS corpus (unless subscriber decides to defer the exit). The balance 60 per cent is paid as lump sum to the subscriber. If the subscriber chooses to prematurely exit from the NPS before the retirement age, at least 80 per cent of the accumulated corpus has to be utilised for the purchase of annuity.

The four main variants of annuities include — Annuity for life (annuity for life time and on death of the subscriber, annuity ceases); Annuity for life with return of purchase price (on death, annuity ceases & 100 per cent of the purchase price is returned to the nominee); Joint life, last survivor without return of purchase price (annuity for life time and on death of the subscriber, annuity will be payable to the spouse for life time. On death of the spouse, annuity ceases); and Joint life, last survivor with return of purchase price (same as earlier, but purchase price will be returned to the nominees on death of the spouse). There’s one more option – ‘NPS – Family Income’, a dedicated annuity option offered only to government employees.

Currently, there are 13 life insurance companies empanelled with the Pension Fund Regulatory & Development Authority (PFRDA), from whom you can select the annuity product. One can use the link – https://cra-nsdl.com/CRAOnline/aspQuote.html – to compare the annuity rates for different annuity variants provided by the all service providers.

Return on investment

When you purchase an annuity, you get a fixed income at the annuity rate throughout life irrespective of interest rate movements. Since the annuity pays you for life-time, it also reduces the risk of re-investment of capital. These benefits come at a cost, though, which get accounted for in the annuity rate.

Currently, the annuity rates for products with the return of purchase price (ROP) are in the range of 5.5-6.6 per cent for an individual of 60 years for an annuity purchase of ₹40 lakh. Though not a perfect comparison, we can look at the return on the ROP annuity products versus that on non-cumulative bank deposits and the Pradhan Mantri Vaya Vandana Yojana (PMVVY). Today, banks are offering 6-6.5 per cent on their ten-year FDs. The PMVVY – with a limit of ₹15 lakh for a single account and a lock-in of ten years – is offering an assured pension of 7.40 per cent per annum payable monthly for all the policies purchased till 31st March, 2022.

There are no investment products that can be compared with the annuity products with no ROP, which pays higher annuity than those with the ROP option. The internal rate of return (IRR), which is an effective way of calculating the return on investment in this case, increases as the subscriber goes on to live longer. For instance, a 60-year old purchases an annuity with annual fixed income of ₹80,000 for ₹10 lakh today. If she lives to 80, her IRR would be just five per cent. But if she lives till 100, then her return jumps to 7.6 per cent.

Annuity products with no ROP can be opted by those with no dependents or liabilities. Note that the income you receive from your annuity plan is taxable at your income tax slab rate.

To overcome the low rates on annuities, PFRDA appears to be working on an option in which the corpus would continue to be managed by pension fund managers but subscriber gets to have periodic payouts, similar to systematic withdrawal plans of mutual funds.

Deferment of annuity

While annuity providers reset the annuity rates periodically, the rate prevalent at the time when you purchase the annuity is applicable to all future annuity pay-outs. Since we are in the low interest rate environment, rates are expected to inch up. Thus, if you are an existing NPS subscriber who is close to retirement and does not need a periodical annuity income, you can defer buying annuity. Also, the longer you defer the purchase of annuity, higher the pension you will get as the number of years over which the insurance company has to pay the annuity comes down. As per NPS rules, one can defer the annuity purchase by 3 years from the time the subscriber exercises the option to withdraw the non-annuity portion (60 per cent, or 80 per cent of the corpus in case of pre-mature withdrawal).

Less scope to alter annuities

Subscribers under all citizen and private sectors can choose from monthly, quarterly, half yearly or yearly payment frequencies (only monthly for government employees). Once an annuity is purchased, the option of cancellation or reinvestment with another annuity service provider or in another annuity scheme is not allowed after the free look period. Surrendering the policy, too, is restricted only to special circumstances such as a critical illness. This would be available only for the annuity option with ROP, however, at high charges.

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