RBI launches two key surveys, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday launched its quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) to assess the performance of the manufacturing sector.

The central bank also announced the launch of the next round of the quarterly Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey (SIOS) for the current quarter.

The 95th round of IOS of the Indian manufacturing sector will assess business sentiment for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing quarter (Q3:2021-22) based on qualitative responses on a set of indicators pertaining to demand conditions, financial conditions, employment conditions and price situation.

“The survey provides useful insight into the performance of the manufacturing sector,” the RBI said.

The SIOS survey will assess the business situation for the current quarter from selected companies in the services and infrastructure sectors in India and their expectations for the ensuing quarter.

It is based on responses on a set of indicators pertaining to demand conditions, financial conditions, employment conditions and the price situation.



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Chairman, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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HDFC Bank, largest lender by market capital, has created a new business segment of commercial and rural banking to capture the next wave of growth, said Atanu Chakraborty, the bank’s non-executive chairman, in the annual general meeting held on July 17.

“This will not only reinforce your bank’s top position in the MSME segment but also strengthen efforts to serve customers in both India and Bharat,” Chakraborty said, adding that the tech savvy young customers too would be benefited out of this move.

The delivery channels will be complemented with digital marketing, even as your bank leverages the branch channel and virtual relationship channel.

This was Chakraborty’s first AGM after the Reserve Bank of India approved his appointment in April for a period of three years. Chakraborty, a 1985 batch IAS officer of Gujarat cadre, earlier retired as secretary of department of economic affairs in the central government more than a year ago.

The bank continues its focus on corporate and Government business to drive growth.

Chakraborty put emphasis on being “future ready”, a key lubricant for growth in coming days. This, according to him, means that growth engines of corporate banking, MSME, agricultural and rural, government and institutions banking and others will be powered by robust technology and digital platforms.

“These growth engines will account for the bulk of our future investments and can be broadly classified as Business Verticals and Delivery Channels,” said Chakraborty.

During April-June quarter, HDFC Bank reported a 16.1 percent year-on-year growth in standalone profit at Rs 7,730 crore, its slowest pace since December 2016. It was lower than Rs 7,931 crore estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg poll.

In between, the chairman highlighted the lender’s efforts for environment, social and government or ESG, a global cult that qualifies for a cheap international cash pool.

“The bank has taken cognizance of ESG in its business plans and has put in place a broad strategy, which will be fine-tuned as we move ahead,” said Chakraborty.

“Your bank realizes the importance of environment protection and that it is a vital aspect within the ESG framework.”

During the pandemic many bank employees suffered due to the infection. The chairman made a special mention for those as he credited the bank for running bank operations seamlessly braving the odds.

“Many of them lost their lives. They are our unsung heroes. I join all of you in paying my respects to them,” he said.



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Mastercard ban to hit banks’ card operations, income

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India’s decision to ban Mastercard Inc for non-compliance with data storage rules has unsettled the country’s financial sector as it will disrupt banks’ card offerings and hit revenues, payments and banking industry executives told Reuters.

Wednesday’s central bank order followed similar action in April against American Express, but Mastercard is a much bigger player in the Indian market, where many lenders offer cards using the US firm’s payments network.

A Reuters analysis of online card listings of 11 domestic and foreign banks in India showed Mastercard accounted for about a third of roughly 100 debit cards on offer, and more than 75credit card variants used its network.

RBI action on Mastercard: SBI Card sees minimal impact on its new customer acquisitions

From July 22, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said, new issuance of such cards will stop as Mastercard did not comply with 2018 rules requiring foreign card networks to store Indian payments data locally for “unfettered supervisory access”.

Though existing customers will not be hit, business impact will be significant as banks need to sign new commercial deals with rival networks such as Visa, a process that can take months and involve weeks of back-end technology integration,five payment and banking executives said.

One banking executive said the switch to Visa could take as long as five months. And with American Express and Mastercard prohibited, Visa gets an unprecedented advantage in negotiations in a credit card market it already dominates.

“It will mean temporary disruption for banks, a lot of hectic negotiations and loss of business in the short term,” said one of the sources, a senior Indian banker.

“This is consistent with our considerable and continued investments in our customers and partners in India to advance the government’s Digital India vision,” Mastercard said in a statement on Thursday.

Bar on Mastercard: YES Bank, Bajaj Finserv, RBL to be most affected

The decision is a major setback for Mastercard, which counts India as a key market. In 2019, Mastercard said it was “bullish on India”, announcing $1 billion in investment over the next five years, after investing $1 billion from 2014 to 2019.

Mastercard also has research and technology centres in India, where its workforce of 4,000 is the second largest after the United States, having grown from 29 in 2013.

High card usage, income impact

Indians’ use of credit and debit cards has risen as digital payments have spread. By May, RBI data shows, there were more than 62 million credit cards and about 902 million debit cards,which together accounted for transactions worth $40.4 billion.

The delays in transition to Visa are also seen hitting bank fees and other incomes they generate from their cards business,the sources said.

In a research note on RBI’s decision, Macquarie flagged as a “key concern” the risk that banks could suffer as credit cards were a profitable product with a so-called post-tax return on assets of around 5-6 per cent.

Some banks, such as India’s RBL, lists 42 credit cards on its website, all using the Mastercard network, while Yes Bank lists seven using Mastercard, though none on Visa. The Citibank website offers four Mastercard credit cards.

RBL said in a statement on Thursday that it had reached a pact with Visa for its credit cards after the RBI order, but integration would take up to 10 weeks.

One of the sources said, however, that negotiations for the deal had taken six months.

RBL said it had a share of five per cent in the credit card market but its issuance of 100,000 new cards each month could potentially be affected. Its stock fell more than three per cent in early trade.

Yes Bank in a statement said it is “evaluating migration to other platforms for seamless transition” for issuing new credit cards. A Citibank spokesperson told Reuters it was working with its partner Mastercard “to evaluate any potential impact”.

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Bandhan Bank appoints Kamal Batra as Head–Assets

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Bandhan Bank has appointed Kamal Batra as Head – Assets to bolster its goal of building a robust and granular retail assets franchise.

The bank’s ‘Vision 2025’ envisages a well-diversified and high-quality asset portfolio, strategically spread across secured and unsecured advances. This appointment is aimed at providing the necessary leadership direction and support towards the same, said a press statement issued by the bank.

The four pillars of the bank’s asset base would comprise Emerging Entrepreneurs Business (erstwhile known as microbanking), housing finance, commercial banking and other retail assets.

Also read: Bandhan Bank acquires branding rights of Kolkata metro station

New focus

Batra will assume the responsibility for growing the bank’s commercial banking (comprising SME lending and NBFC lending) business and retail assets (comprising gold loans, personal loans, auto loans, among others) portfolios.

The growth of these verticals will help the bank capitalise on its robust liabilities franchise and cater to the needs of all customers through an entire suite of offerings spanning deposits, business and retail loans, and third-party products such as mutual funds and insurance, across physical and digital banking.

A veteran of the financial services sector with over twenty five years of experience, Batra, in his last role, was Executive Vice President and Head, Business Banking and Secured Assets at IndusInd Bank. His responsibilities included establishing the SME lending business and scaling up other businesses, including Loan Against Property, unsecured business loans, channel finance, warehouse finance and gold loans among others.

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Covid claims for life insurers to rise but sector well prepared: Sumit Rai

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The number of Covid related claims for life insurers in the second wave of the pandemic is likely to be three to four times of the first wave, believes Sumit Rai, Managing Director and CEO, Edelweiss Tokio Life Insurance.

“Claims have increased significantly but typically they come with a lag,” Rai said, adding that most life insurers had anticipated it and are prepared for it.

“I don’t expect the impact to be very adverse and don’t think it will set the industry back very significantly,” he said in an interaction with BusinessLine. The impact of the higher claims will be visible on aspects like term pricing, he added.

Edelweiss Tokio settled 487 Covid related claims amounting to ₹45.82 crore in 2020-21. In the first quarter of this fiscal, it has settled 153 such claims of ₹16.39 crore.

RBI report

According to the Reserve Bank of India’s Financial Stability Report, July 2021, the life insurance industry received 22,205 claims worth ₹1,644.56 crore during 2020-21 where death was due to Covid and related complications, which amounted to 0.3 per cent of total premium income of the year.

“The pandemic did not have a significant impact on death claim settlement rates,” it noted.

However, there is concern among analysts that the spike in claims in the second wave could put pressure on the bottomline of insurers in the quarter ended June 30, 2021.

Kotak Life Insurance had said it expects to incur a loss of up to ₹275 crore in the quarter ended June 30, 2021 due to increased Covid claims.

Rai is, however, optimistic about the prospects of the life insurance sector and expects the industry will grow by 12 per cent to 15 per cent in the next few years. “This pandemic has given a fillip to life insurance. On a long term basis, industry will continue to do well,” he said.

Edelweiss Tokio expects to grow at a higher rate than the industry. “Our goal is to grow better than the industry at between 15 per cent to 20 per cent over the next two to three years,” he said, adding that the focus will be to be multi-channel. The insurer plans to launch a new term product as well as a guaranteed return product this fiscal.

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Rupee slides toward year’s low as India’s trade deficit widens

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After months of wild volatility in the rupee, India’s widening trade deficit and elevated commodity prices are bearing down on the currency, reinforcing a recent downward bias and pushing it toward a new low for the year. That’s the view of traders who’ve seen the rupee whipsaw from being Asia’s best performer in the first quarter to its worst in April when another wave of Covid-19 infections took hold.

This volatility and the prospect of tapering by the Federal Reserve have also reduced the attractiveness of India’s currency for carry trades, adding to its headwinds. “We expect oil and broader commodity complex prices to remain elevated in the short term, which will weigh on India’s trade balance,” said Standard Chartered Plc’s Parul Mittal Sinha. “We maintain a bearish view on the rupee,” said Sinha, who heads the bank’s India financial markets and macro trading for South Asia.

Standard Chartered and RBL Bank Ltd. forecast the currency to depreciate to 76 per dollar by year-end, while their peers at Deutsche Bank AG have a slightly less pessimistic projection of 75.

The rupee closed at 74.6350 on Friday while Brent crude, the benchmark for India’s oil imports, was around $76 per barrel, up more than 45% since the start of the year.

Amid the devastating human toll that the coronavirus is taking in India, the rate of increase in new infections is slowing, which is improving the prospects for reopening the economy. But as the Covid curve flattens and consumers and businesses become more active, demand for imports is also set to increase, weighing on the currency.

Also read: Why the frenzy in crude oil prices may not sustain

Updated trade data due on Thursday are expected to confirm the deficit widened to $9.4 billion in June, from $6.3 billion in May. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. estimates that billion dollar deficits will continue and average in the “double digits” as the economy reopens.

Technical indicators also point to further depreciation of the currency given dollar-rupee’s moving average convergence-divergence gauge, a measure of momentum, remains above zero in bullish territory. The pair has room to run before reaching resistance at April’s peak of 75.3362.

Pockets of support

Yet even RBL Bank’s domestic markets head Anand Bagri, who expects the rupee to weaken, sees pockets of support for the currency, including inflows for equity offerings. Notable among these is a $1.3 billion initial share sales from Zomato Ltd., and Paytm’s bid for shareholder approval of a $2.2 billion stock sale that would set in motion the process for the country’s largest ever debut.

The Reserve Bank of India also has $600 billion of currency reserves to draw on to curb any sharp fall in the rupee. “We expect the RBI to remain proactive with its FX intervention strategy to ensure limited volatility in the rupee and to prevent excessive rupee depreciation from feeding into inflation,” said Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank.

Below are the key Asian data and events due this week:Monday, July 12: India industrial production and CPI, Japan PPI and machine orders, Malaysia industrial productionTuesday, July 13: , China trade balance, New Zealand food prices and REINZ house sales, Australia NAB business conditions and ANZ consumer confidenceWednesday, July 14: New Zealand rate decision, South Korea unemployment rate, Singapore GDP, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan industrial production, India wholesale pricesThursday, July 15: China GDP, retail sales and industrial production, South Korea rate decision, Australia unemployment rate, Indonesia and India trade balancesFriday, July 16: Japan rate decision, New Zealand CPI, Thailand forex reserves, Singapore non-oil exports.

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Fall in outward remittances good news for India’s current account, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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India’s outward remittances fell by as much as $6 billion in FY21 as the pandemic put brakes on ordinary overseas travel and student traffic to campuses abroad, partly contributing to the current account surplus of $24 billion.

This is the first time annual remittance outflows contracted since 2015 when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) doubled the annual limit for sending money abroad to $250,000 and allowed more current account transactions under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).

Total outflows contracted 32% in FY21 as major heads like travel, overseas studies and maintenance of close relatives saw a sharp dip. But outflows under permissible capital account transactions like investment in overseas deposits picked up.

“The fall is largely due to complete restrictions on travel. Nil MICE (meetings & incentive) movements, and there are no trade fairs and exhibitions due to Covid,” said Harsh Kumar Bhanwala, executive chairman of Capital India Finance, which makes outward remittances under the RemitX brand.

Curbs on leisure travel contributed to this trend while outbound student traffic was almost nil last year as overseas universities moved online to check the spread of the pandemic, Bhanwala said.

Outward remittances fell to $12.7 billion during FY21, from $18.7 billion in FY20, RBI data showed. Under the LRS started in 2004, all resident individuals, including minors, are allowed to remit up to $250,000 per financial year for any permissible current or capital account transaction or a combination of both.

These include private visits to any country (except Nepal and Bhutan), gift or donation, going abroad for employment, emigration, maintenance of close relatives abroad, travel for business, or for meeting medical expenses, or for studies abroad or any other current account transaction which is not covered under the definition of current account in FEMA 1999.

Two heads — travel and remittance for studies abroad – accounted for about 56% of outward remittance during the year as the pandemic induced lockdown globally even restricted essential travel forcing students to defer their travel plans for overseas studies. While travel outgo dipped 53% to $3.2 billion, expenses for studies abroad dipped 23% to $3.8 billion during the year.

Significantly, capital account transactions like resident individual investments in overseas financial markets rose during the year, albeit on a small base, with investors likely eying the combined benefit of rising yields and dollar strength over a period of time. Investment in overseas equity and debt rose 9.4 per cent to $472 million and investment in overseas deposits rose per 9.1 cent to $680.4 million.



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India’s risk-averse lenders are emerging as one of the biggest hurdles to its recovery, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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India’s risk-averse lenders are emerging as one of the biggest hurdles to the speed of the nation’s recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn, as they hold back credit when the economy needs it the most.

Loans to companies and individuals has been growing at a subdued 5.5%-6% in recent months, which is half the pace seen before the pandemic struck, Reserve Bank of India data shows. The nation’s biggest lender State Bank of India wants to nearly double its credit growth rate to 10% in the year started April 1, but is willing to miss the goal.

“It is a very fragile situation,” Dinesh Khara, chairman of SBI, said after reporting earnings for the fiscal year ended March. The bank would not “compromise” on asset quality to achieve targets, he said.

Khara’s comments underline the biggest obstacle to both credit off-take and economic growth, pegged at 9.5% this year, already reduced from the central bank’s previous forecast of 10.5% and following an unprecedented contraction last year. Banks’ risk aversion — or the fear of soured loans jumping in a tough economic environment — could slow the economy’s recovery further, according to analysts, including those at the RBI.

“Credit is a necessary and probably most important ingredient for economic growth,” according to S. S. Mundra, a former deputy governor of RBI, who estimated that the multiplier effect of credit on nominal gross domestic product growth is 1.6 times.

It doesn’t help India’s case that it’s already home to one of the biggest piles of soured loans among major economies. And add to that a crisis in the shadow banking sector, which culminated in the rescue of two lenders and bankruptcy of two more over the past couple of years.

Corporate willingness for new investments is low, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt., with capital expenditure declining. While companies have posted bumper profits mostly on the back of widespread cost cutting, most have used the extra funds generated to pay down bank loans.

India’s risk-averse lenders are emerging as one of the biggest hurdles to its recovery

According to research from SBI, where economists analyzed the top 15 sectors and a thousand listed companies, more than 1.7 trillion rupees ($22.8 billion) worth of debt was pared last year. Refineries, steel, fertilizers, mining and mineral products as well as textile companies alone reduced debt by more than 1.5 trillion rupees, with the trend continuing this year, the bank’s chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh wrote recently.

“Any meaningful recovery beyond a 10% growth in credit demand will require a substantial turn in the private capex cycle, which still seems sometime away as corporates are focused on deleveraging,” said Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. She forecasts GDP growth of 7% this year, which is at the lower end of a Bloomberg survey with consensus at 9.2%.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“A further slump in credit growth means that the RBI is likely to allow some more time for credit recovery to take shape before its begins to unwind its stimulus measures.”

— Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Consumers too are repairing their finances, which bodes ill for overall demand for goods and services as well as retail loans, and in turn economic growth. The current recovery is likely to be less steep than the bounce that unfolded in late 2020 and early 2021, according to analysts at S&P Global Ratings.

“Households are running down savings,” the S&P analysts wrote. “A desire to rebuild their cash holding may delay spending even as the economy reopens.”

And while Covid-19 relief measures may provide banks some reprieve, the need to raise capital will remain high once virus related stress start to emerge on their balance sheets.

“Indian banks’ challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave,” Fitch Ratings’ Saswata Guha and Prakash Pandey said this week, as they cut India’s growth forecast by 280 basis points to 10%. That underlines “our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation.”



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CDSL becomes the first depository to open 4- crore active Demat accounts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL), India’s leading and only listed depository, has announced the first depository to open Four crores plus (40 million) active Demat accounts.

CDSL is currently the largest depository in the country in terms of active Demat accounts.

CDSL facilitates holding and transacting in securities in the electronic form and facilitates settlement of trades on stock exchanges.

CDSL has an objective of delivering quality services and innovative products. Since the financial services industry has become increasingly IT-reliant, CDSL is adopting technology as a part of its strategic vision. Major shareholders of CDSL include BSE, Canara Bank, HDFC Bank, LIC and Standard Chartered Bank.

Nehal Vora, CEO of CDSL said “I will firstly congratulate SEBI – the capital market regulator for being the visionary leader that guided us to this digital growth and safe ecosystem. It is their foresight that transited the long Demat account opening procedure into an easy digital experience without compromising on the necessary controls. Our milestones are a result of the hard work and coordination of all the market infrastructure institutions and the market intermediaries. I wish to thank the investors for choosing CDSL to be their depository. I would like to thank all the participants of the capital market for their contribution in accelerating the digital and financial growth of India.”

This journey of financial inclusion has to enhance to engage with a higher number of persons to foray into the securities market to achieve the objective to make India a capital market hub that is highly focused on corporate governance, technology, investor protection, transparency, and sustainability.

Further, CDSL will continue to provide services for the progress of the securities markets, for the valued investors in line with our vision of “Empowering the Atma-nirbhar Niveshak” through our digital services.”



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Deutsche Bank AG’s net profit in India rises 48% in FY21

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Deutsche Bank AG announced its India branches have posted a 48 per cent increase in net profit for the year-ended March 31, 2021 at ₹1,527 crore. It had reported a net profit of ₹1,031 crore in 2019-20.

Net revenue in the fiscal 2020-21 grew 23 per cent to ₹5,537 crore as against ₹4,510 crore a year ago.

The growth in net revenue was “driven by consistent performance across all our businesses in India, aided in large part by a strong cost and risk discipline,” it said in a statement on Thursday.

Its net non-performing assets fell by 44 basis points to 0.86 per cent of net advances in 2020-21 as against 1.31 per cent in 2019-20.

Advances increased by three per cent on an annual basis to ₹52,438 crore as on March 31, 2021 while deposits grew by 11 per cent to ₹66,224 crore.

Increase in capital deployment

“The last financial year was hugely challenging by any measure but by staying close to our clients and supporting them with their liquidity and risk requirements, the teams at Deutsche Bank once again demonstrated their resilience and dedication. Despite the impact of Covid, our asset quality continues to be strong,” said Kaushik Shaparia, CEO at Deutsche Bank India.

The additional capital infused during the year positions the bank strongly for 2021-22 as well, he further said.

“During 2020-21, Deutsche Bank increased the capital deployed in its India branches by ₹3,326 crore to support growth across all its business lines, taking the total capital deployed to ₹19,345 crore,” the bank said.

The bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio in March 2021 stood at 17.28 per cent – an increase over the March 2020 level of 14.93 per cent.

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