How Elon Musk Tweets Influence Bitcoin and Dogecoin Prices?

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Planning

oi-Sneha Kulkarni

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Elon Musk is the only person who has built sufficient power to impact markets with a single tweet. The celebrity CEO, who has over 55 million followers on Twitter, ‘practically’ rattles the market every time he tweets about cryptocurrencies. The billionaire and Tesla CEO have also been tweeting a lot about cryptocurrency, pushing the price of bitcoin and dogecoin up and down in less than 280 characters. His tweets also raise concerns about the stability of a market that is so quickly affected, especially as retail investors rush to cryptocurrencies in greater numbers.

How Elon Musk’s comments have influenced the bitcoin market in the last month:

How Elon MuskTweets Influenced Bitcoin and Dogecoin Prices?

June 3: He shared a meme about breaking up with bitcoin on June 3. Since then, the price of bitcoin has dropped 5%, marking the latest in Musk’s month-long rout of the cryptocurrency.

May 25: Musk appeared to try to address the problem of bitcoin’s environmental impact a week later, calling the intention of North American bitcoin miners to reveal renewable consumption “quite encouraging.” The price increased by 4% as a result.

On May 17: Musk remarked May 17 that Tesla hasn’t sold bitcoin in a while, which seemed to stem the decline and keep prices around $45,000.

May 16: When Elon Musk posted in response to an unverified Twitter account named @CryptoWhale, which wrote, “Bitcoiners are going to smack themselves next quarter when they find out Tesla liquidated the rest of their #Bitcoin holdings,” Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $65,000 to below $45,000 levels. I wouldn’t blame him, given the amount of vitriol directed at @elonmusk… That tweet made the price of bitcoin drop to its lowest level since February.

May 13: Due to environmental worries about Bitcoin mining, Musk said on May 13 that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin payments for its automobiles. Bitcoin plunged by around 17 percent soon after the tweet.

The value of bitcoin surged to about $38,000 from roughly $32,000 when Musk changed his Twitter bio to #bitcoin on January 29, 2021.

Musk Tweets on Dogecoin

Musk’s tweets regarding dogecoin sparked a rally in the digital currency, which began as a joke on social media. According to CoinMarketCap.com, Dogecoin has risen to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Musk’s cryptocurrency tweets aren’t only about bitcoin. After tweeting that he was working with dogecoin developers to increase the currency’s efficiency, the SpaceX CEO propelled dogecoin values up 30% in May.

Story first published: Saturday, June 5, 2021, 11:17 [IST]



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Digital banking: Guess who could laugh all the way to the bank?

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Banks, in their eagerness to keep pace, ensured they incorporated every facet of digital banking in their ecosystem.

By Indranil Basu Roy

Next to “new normal,” the most overused term could be Digital Banking. What’s the tipping point of technology or service delivery that makes a Bank truly digital? Net Banking? Yes and No, as its entry dates to an earlier era. App-based access? You must be joking. Cashless payments… now we are talking.

Let’s take one step back to understand digital banking. Over time, as fintech progressed from state-of-the-art, to cutting edge, to leading edge, services offered by banks migrated from conventional delivery channels to online.

Banks, in their eagerness to keep pace, ensured they incorporated every facet of digital banking in their ecosystem. Somewhere down the line, the music stopped. After all, customers were not complaining – no branch visits, no staying on hold in the helpline, no relationship manager to deal with – banking was no longer a chore but a breeze.

Not just retail or personal banking, the transformation had encompassed corporate banking as well, and had eased the procedures in document- oriented products such as Trade Finance.

Should we conclude that all is well, and congratulate the fraternity? Can we compliment the far-thinking CTOs and CMDs on their vision for digitisation? Can we name the top 10 digital-driven banks and announce such other lists that make the jury glow and winners feel good?

If we do, we are falling into the trap that others have already got into. Let’s get this straight, digital banking has reached such levels of disruption that the disrupted are unaware of disruptors racing ahead.

As a banking institution, how do you gauge or ensure you are not left behind? Here are three test questions (don’t look for synergy, this is a random round):

  • How equipped are you to compete with a wholly-digital bank that does not have a single brick and mortar branch?
  • To enhance your digital capability, has your Bank partnered with, or invested into non-financial players, such as a fintech enterprise, data analytics firm, mortgage-software start up or any other disruptor?
  • Here are five terminologies which are the latest in fintech applications: If you have to look up any, you are labeled “behind,” if you have implemented one or more you are “ahead.”

Here we go: Social Banking, Digital Queue, Conversational Banking, Peer to Peer Payment Systems, Facial Recognition Banking.

Assuming that banks cannot endlessly invest in technology (tech is not their domain) the answer is cross-industry collaboration with fintech players who focus on agile solutions. If the engagement process gets further delayed, the next wave will be fintechs playing the role of banks in certain product areas (we already have several online lending platforms which are not backed by a Bank). Look closely, lending platforms of today are replicating services that Banks pioneered five years ago by offering instant loans based on a review of credit history.

Looking back, IBM, the one-time mainframe behemoth, proved elephants can dance by making a dramatic turnaround in the mid 1990s. Now is the turn of mammoth banks to appreciate that digital transformation calls for more than online banking. If not, they may as well recall the story of a humble ant that troubled the mighty elephant by entering its trunk (can’t think of a better disruptor-disrupted metaphor).

Beyond folklore and stories of yore, here’s a reality check reflected in a research report on ‘Digital Banking in Asia,’ published by Mckinsey & Company:

“The disruption caused by digitisation can create or destroy significant value for banks, depending on their starting positions and how well they respond to shifting consumer behaviour and other trends. Experience is showing that 30 to 50 percent of net profit is at risk.”

The findings are disquieting. Rather than assuage your anxiety, I end with a call to action. Start with an audit of your bank’s digital platforms and products, benchmark against the best in the industry, get to know where you feature, and get to work on greater transformation.

If the fraternity fails to keep pace, faster adapters, disruptors and other innovators will get ahead. No marks for guessing who could laugh all the way to the Bank.

(The author is the chief business officer of Modefin, a fintech solutions provider. Views expressed are personal and not necessarily that of Financial Express Online)

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Crisil fears large companies will benefit from RBI sops for contact-intensive sectors, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Leading domestic ratings agency Crisil on Friday said feared risk aversion among banks may lead to only the large companies benefitting under the Rs 15,000-crore on-tap liquidity window for contact-intensive sectors announced earlier in the day. The Reserve Bank of India‘s (RBI) aggregate debt-eligibility thresholds for small enterprises to avail loan recasts takes the total number of entities able to access the facility to two-thirds of the rated mid-size portfolio, it said.

Earlier in the day, the RBI relaxed the eligibility criteria for the restructuring window offered under the Resolution Framework 2.0 to Rs 50 crore. Earlier, only half of the rated companies were eligible for the package when the loan eligibility threshold was set at Rs 25 crore. It also launched the Rs 15,000-crore liquidity facility.

The on-tap liquidity window for contact-intensive sectors such as hospitality, travel and tourism, and aviation ancillary services, which have borne the brunt of the second wave of the pandemic, is timely also, the agency said.

“There is a possibility that only large existing borrowers in contact-intensive sectors actually benefit from this on-tap liquidity window as banks may have greater comfort with them,” the agency said.

In the current environment, it is possible that a number of banks could be risk-averse and the benefit of on-tap liquidity facility may not, therefore, reach the smaller and lower-rated companies in these sectors fully, it said.

A clarity will emerge once the banks come out with their updated policies after the RBI announcement. Crisil will monitor the impact of the development on its rated credits on a case-to-case basis, it said.

Crisil said it rates 6,800 mid-size companies, excluding those engaged in the financial sector, and 4,700 of those are small and medium enterprises (SMEs), having bank loan exposure of up to Rs 50 crore and were standard accounts as of March 2021.

“The RBI’s relaxation in overall bank exposure threshold is timely, as it now increases the coverage of stressed companies that typically have weaker credit profiles,” its Chief Rating Officer Subodh Rai said.

Rai added that three out of four companies eligible for restructuring have sub-investment category ratings, indicating their relatively weak ability to manage liquidity shocks, he added.

Rescheduling of loan repayments under the restructuring 2.0 window will provide interim relief to these companies against such liquidity shocks, he said.



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No change in RBI’s view on cryptocurrencies, we have major concerns, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday made it clear that the central bank‘s view on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains unchanged and it continues to have “major concerns” on the volatile instruments.

“There is no change in RBI’s position (on cryptocurrencies). Our circular clarifies the position very well,” Das told reporters in the customary post-policy press conference, when asked if there has been a change in its view.

The RBI had first come out with a circular on the issue in 2018, cautioning people about investing in cryptocurrencies, which do not have any sovereign character.

It had barred entities regulated by it from dealing in such instruments. However, the Supreme Court in early 2020 struck down the circular.

Das said a revised notification to financial institutions on Monday was necessitated because some banks were still referring to the old circular set aside by the apex court and this was an attempt to set the record straight.

The RBI had on Monday asked banks, NBFCs and payment system providers not to refer to its earlier 2018 circular in their communications to customers.

“With regard to RBI’s position (on cryptocurrencies), I had said earlier, we have major concerns around cryptocurrency which we have conveyed to the government,” Das said.

Following Monday’s circular, some stakeholders in the cryptocurrencies trade had welcomed it more as a vindication.

Some of the cryptocurrencies have seen massive dip in their per unit trading prices lately, leading to erosion of investor wealth. Some investors have been looking at cryptocurrencies as an attractive investment class.

Das on Friday said the central bank is not into investment advice, but added that one should make his own appraisal and do his own due diligence before taking such a call.



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RBI issues norms on Certificate of Deposit, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said Certificate of Deposit (CD) shall be issued in minimum denomination of Rs 5 lakh and in multiples of Rs 5 lakh thereafter.

CD is a negotiable, unsecured money market instrument issued by a bank as a usance promissory note against funds deposited with it for a maturity period up to one year.

The Master Direction on Reserve Bank of India (Certificate of Deposit) Directions, 2021 further said CDs shall be issued only in dematerialised form and held with a depository registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

“CDs may be issued to all persons resident in India,” it said, and added the tenor of the instrument at issuance should not be less than seven days.

Further, banks are not allowed to grant loans against CDs, unless specifically permitted by the Reserve Bank.

As per the RBI, issuing banks are permitted to buy back CDs before maturity, subject to certain conditions.

The central bank had issued draft directions for public comments in December 2020.



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This Healthcare Stock Is Attracting Attention, What’s Cooking?

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Investment

oi-Sunil Fernandes

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Healthcare stocks have been on a roll since last year, when Covid-19 first broke out. Many stocks soared and most of them today are quoting at their 52-week highs. However, there are some of them that may still have the potential to rally form these levels.

Cadila Healthcare: A solid portfolio

Cadila Healthcare has a very good portfolio comprising active pharmaceutical ingredients, wellness related and also related to animal healthcare.

Recently, broking firm Motilal Oswal has put a “buy” on the stock and sees a pretty decent upside on the stock from current levels.

Target Price Current market price 52-week high price 52-week low price
Cadila Healthcare Rs 730 Rs 634 Rs 673 Rs 347

Covid -vaccine trails

Cadila Healthcare has been conducting trail runs on a three-dose regimen for Covid-19 and the company is targetting affordable pricing.

“The trial includes 1,000 children (12-18 years) and hence could be one of the first to be approved for children. It is also working out a plan to test its vaccine for children aged 5-12 years. CDH would seek emergency use approval for its COVID-19 vaccine in next 2 weeks and would initially begin a vaccine supply rate of 10m doses/month which is expected to increase to 30-40m after 4-6 months, with partnerships/ capacity expansion,” Motilal Oswal has said in a report.

Business in the US to do well

Cadila Healthcare has been able to maintain its market share in the markets across the United States, despite lower offtake of its key product g-Asacol and expects sales to normalize from 2QFY22 onwards.

In fact, the company has 30 abbreviated new drug application in FY21 while new approvals/filings stood at 35/22, Motilal Oswal has stated. The pace of launches are expected to only improve going forward.

This Healthcare Stock Is Attracting Attention, What’s Cooking?

Valuation remain reasonable

Motilal Oswal has said that it remains positive on the stock of Cadila Healthcare on account of a host of reasons. This includes, superior execution in DF segment, a favourable demand for COVID-19 products, innovative/Complex Generic pipeline, and reducing financial leverage.

“We expect 15% earnings compounded annual growth rate on the back of 7% sales growth in the United States (vis-a-vis 3% YoY growth in FY21), 18% sales compounded in DF (considering muted growth in FY21), 18% sales compounded annual sales growth in emerging markets supported by 180 basis points margin expansion, and reduced financial leverage. Vaccine-related upside is yet to be captured in the earnings. Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 740 (26x FY22E earnings).

Conclusion

It is pertinent to note that pharma stocks like the entire markets are not too far away from their 52-week highs, including Cadila Healthcare. Therefore, caution maybe exercised before investing in stocks now, as the indices are at fresh lifetime peaks.

We advocate very staggered investing and that too with a long term view. Also, investing on declines maybe a better strategy for investors.

Disclaimer:

The views and investment tips expressed by authors or employees of Greynium Information Technologies, should not be construed as investment advise to buy or sell stocks, gold, currency or other commodities. Investors should certainly not take any trading and investment decision based only on information discussed on GoodReturns.in We are not a qualified financial advisor and any information herein is not investment advice. It is informational in nature. All readers and investors should note that neither Greynium nor the author of the articles, would be responsible for any decision taken based on these articles.

Story first published: Saturday, June 5, 2021, 8:28 [IST]



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RBI incentivises lenders to create Covid loan book for contact-intensive sectors

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SS Mallikarjuna Rao, MD and CEO, Punjab National Bank, said: “The announcement of on tap-liquidity facility of Rs 15,000 crore will ensure credit flow to the contact-intensive sectors and MSMEs, including hotels, tourism, aviation, etc. which have been adversely impacted.”

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced a special liquidity window of Rs 15,000 crore for lenders to incentivise them to create a ‘Covid loan book’ by lending to contact-intensive sectors hit by the pandemic.

Further, banks will be eligible to park their surplus liquidity up to the size of the Covid loan book at 40 basis points (bps) higher than the reverse repo rate. Currently, the repo rate stands at 4% and the reverse repo rate at 3.35% after the regulator kept rates unchanged on Friday. The window encourages banks to provide fresh lending support to hotels, restaurants, tourism, aviation ancillary services, private bus operators and car repair services, among others.

“In order to mitigate the adverse impact of the second wave of the pandemic on certain contact-intensive sectors, a separate liquidity window of Rs 15,000 crore is being opened till March 31, 2022, with tenors of up to three years at the repo rate,” said governor Shaktikanta Das.

The regulator has also specified that banks which do not wish to avail funds from the regulator will also be eligible for the incentives announced by the RBI. This scheme is over and above the liquidity window of Rs 50,000 crore for ramping up Covid-related healthcare infrastructure and services announced in May 2021. Banks need to create a separate Covid loan book for lending to the pandemic-hit sectors specified by the RBI. Bankers believe on-tap liquidity facility will ensure credit flow to the contact-intensive sectors.

SS Mallikarjuna Rao, MD and CEO, Punjab National Bank, said: “The announcement of on tap-liquidity facility of Rs 15,000 crore will ensure credit flow to the contact-intensive sectors and MSMEs, including hotels, tourism, aviation, etc. which have been adversely impacted.”

Experts believe many banks may not avail the liquidity facility provided by the central bank. Karthik Srinivasan, senior vice president and group head, ICRA, said given the surplus liquidity in the banking system, banks are unlikely to directly borrow under the liquidity window from RBI. However, an additional incentive of 40 basis points over the reverse repo rate could provide some incentive to lenders to provide credit to these sectors, he said. The lenders, however, could remain watchful of the underlying stress in these sectors, as the credit risk will continue to be with them, Srinivasan said.

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‘RBI’s Rs 16,000 crore special liquidity facility to Sidbi to help MFIs mitigate Covid-related challenges’

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Alok Misra, CEO of MFIN, the umbrella body of MFIs, expressed hope that small and medium MFIs will be “prominently” covered under on-lending and refinancing facilities by Sidbi as the industry is facing disruptions in collections due to the second wave of Covid-19.

The microfinance industry on Friday said the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to provide a special liquidity facility of Rs 16,000 crore to the Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi) for on-lending and refinancing purposes will provide support to microfinance institutions (MFIs) to mitigate challenges arising out of the pandemic.

Alok Misra, CEO of MFIN, the umbrella body of MFIs, expressed hope that small and medium MFIs will be “prominently” covered under on-lending and refinancing facilities by Sidbi as the industry is facing disruptions in collections due to the second wave of Covid-19.

Industry bodies were, however, “slightly disappointed” because the RBI did not announce any measure on including microfinance institutions under the Resolution Framework 2.0.

“Over the last few quarters, large MFIs have been maintaining relatively higher liquidity on the balance sheet as a precautionary measure in a Covid-impacted environment. The special liquidity facility of Sidbi will further provide additional support to MFIs in general, but particular to small MFIs to manage their fixed obligations amidst disruption in collections on account of lockdowns during April and May 2021,” CreditAccess Grameen MD & CEO Udaya Kumar Hebbar told FE.

“Further, it will help the MFIs provide financing support to their customers and resume normalised disbursements once the lockdowns are gradually relaxed and economic activities start functioning in normal manner,” Hebbar said.

P Satish, executive director, Sa-Dhan, said the RBI in April provided a special liquidity facility of Rs 15,000 crore to Sidbi. “Providing a further special liquidity facility of Rs 16,000 crore is more in terms of enabling Sidbi to finance more innovative types of activities. Oveall this will help the principal financial institution increase its liquidity and that way it will be helpful for the microfinance sector,” he said.

According to Satin Creditcare Network chairman & managing director HP Singh, the central bank’s measures, such as the increase in limit of loans from Rs 25 crore to Rs 50 crore to small businesses and individuals under Resolution Framework 2.0, special liquidity facility to Sidbi and a separate liquidity window of Rs 15,000 crore for contact-intensive sectors, among others, will act as instruments spurring a rebound and strengthening India’s momentum towards normalcy.

The RBI, however, has still not included the MFIs under Resolution Framework 2.0. MFIN had earlier urged the RBI to provide a “restructuring window” for MFIs by including them under the Resolution Framework, which would help them mitigate the impact of Covid-19. According to the industry body, in current circumstances, it will become challenging for the small and medium MFIs to continue repayment to their lenders as microfinance clients are unable to pay during lockdown.

“We were expecting that at least some announcement will be there from RBI on providing a moratorium from lenders to MFIs or some kinds of restructuring facility. Without these kind of measures it will become a major problem for MFIs to provide further loans to their clients going forward. But it has not come. So, in a way we are slightly disappointed,” Satish said.

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RBI announces second round of G-SAP to keep yields in check

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In addition, a third round of bond buying has also been announced under G-SAP 1.0. The central bank has decided that another operation under G-SAP 1.0 for purchase of G-Secs of ₹40,000 crore will be conducted on June 17.

In a bid to manage the yield curve and enable the government to borrow at lower rates, Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday there would be a second round of the Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) in the second quarter of the financial year, given that the earlier two auctions had evoked keen interest from market participants with bid cover ratios of 4.1 and 3.5, respectively.

Das said the central bank has decided to undertake G-SAP 2.0 in Q2 of FY22 by conducting secondary market purchase operations of ₹1.20 lakh crore to support the market. In addition, a third round of bond buying has also been announced under G-SAP 1.0. The central bank has decided that another operation under G-SAP 1.0 for purchase of G-Secs of ₹40,000 crore will be conducted on June 17.

While this move will help keep borrowing costs lower for the government, there is good news for the private sector as well. The Confederation of Indian industry welcomed the move. Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of the CII, said: “While keeping the policy rates unchanged, the RBI’s move to continue to use its unconventional tools to keep yields stable amid a large government borrowing programme provides succour to keep borrowing costs contained for the private sector. The G-SAP 2.0 is one such step in this direction.”

The first two auctions conducted by the RBI under the first G-SAP programme helped keep interest rates benign for 91-day T Bills, commercial papers and certificates of deposit. The market was keenly looking out for another round of G-SAP, which the RBI announced on Friday.

Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank, said: “To enable the government to borrow at attractive rates, another round of bond buying was announced under G-SAP 1.0, while a G-SAP 2.0 was announced. We think that over the current FY, the RBI will not have any leeway to change its interest rates to provide support to the economy. Instead, it will do whatever necessary to push credit and liquidity to the stressed areas of the economy so as to prevent erosion of the supply chains in the economy.”

The central bank has been deploying both conventional and unconventional tools to manage liquidity in the system in consonance with its monetary policy stance. The governor said the timing of the second auction was aimed at replenishing the drainage of liquidity due to the restoration of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to its pre-pandemic level of 4% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL), effective May 22, 2021. The redemption of government securities worth around ₹52,000 crore during the last week of May has fully neutralised the CRR restoration.

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NPAs may remain within projections: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

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The earlier FSR released in January 2021 had projected that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks may rise to 13.5% by September 2021 in the baseline scenario.

By Ankur Mishra

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking sector may remain within the range of projections made in the last financial stability report (FSR).

However, Das specified that final details would be out in the upcoming FSR, which will be released later this month.

The earlier FSR released in January 2021 had projected that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks may rise to 13.5% by September 2021 in the baseline scenario.

“On the NPA situation, whatever projection we had given earlier in the last FSR. I think it will be within that (range),” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Friday after releasing policy.

“I think the figures (NPAs) are quite manageable, but I would not say anything beyond that because our teams are assessing the numbers and we will spell out details in the upcoming financial stability report (FSR) later this month, ” Das further said.

In the policy statement, the RBI Governor also emphasised on building capital buffers and adequate provisioning for banks and NBFCs to mitigate the impact of Covid-19. Last week, RBI in its annual report, said that gross NPA ratio of banks decreased to 6.8% in December 2020 from 8.2% in March 2020.

The prudent provisioning by banks, even over and above regulatory prescriptions for accounts availing moratorium and undergoing restructuring, resulted in an improvement in the provision coverage ratio (PCR) of banks, RBI had said.

PCR improved to 75.5% at end-December 2020 from 66.6% in March 2020. Similarly, the capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of banks rose to 15.9% in December 2020, compared to 14.8% in March 2020.

The capital adequacy ratio of banks was aided by capital raising from the market by public and private sector banks, and retention of profits.

The central bank, in its annual report had, however, cautioned that asset quality of the banks needs to be closely monitored in the coming quarters.

The regulator had given the warning as the lenders will have to show a true picture of the bad loans after Supreme Court (SC) lifted interim stay on classifying NPAs in March 2021.

In August 2020, RBI had announced a six months moratorium for all term loan borrowers in the wake of Covid-19 impact on borrowers. The Supreme Court had directed lenders to waive compound interest of the borrowers during the moratorium period.

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