“BUY” This Small Cap Logistic Stock For A Gain of +25%: Motilal Oswal

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Motilal Oswal’s take on VRL Logistics Ltd

The brokerage has said in its research report that “We released our Logistics thematic report recently, wherein we highlighted that the Logistics sector is set to move towards formalization and there would be strong growth opportunities for some of the established players in this space. With a robust growth outlook, we expect a strong upside in the stock from current levels. The strong tailwinds for VRL would drive consistent growth in volumes and earnings over the next few years. The company would benefit from the uptick in economic activity, the general price hikes taken post 1QFY22, and easing fuel prices (on account of tax cuts). VRL is focusing on the high-margin LTL business (driven by the B2B segment) and expanding its network into newer markets.”

Motilal Oswal has claimed that “The company has seen capacity utilization moving towards pre-COVID levels in the last few months. 2Q saw ~35% YoY growth in volumes, driven by the buildup in festive season inventory and easing of transport restrictions. The volume momentum is expected to continue with the pickup in economic activity and normalization of transportation activity. Over the medium-to-long term, we expect growth to be driven by an uptick in the overall Logistics sector (driven by economic growth) and increasing formalization, leading to market share gains in organized players such as VRL.”

Buy VRL Logistics Ltd With A Target Price of Rs. 540

Buy VRL Logistics Ltd With A Target Price of Rs. 540

The brokerage has said that “With a demand pickup and branch additions in untapped regions, we expect VRL to clock 19% revenue CAGR over FY21-24E. With robust volumes and cost efficiency measures, VRL would be able to maintain its EBITDA margin profile at 14-15% over the next two years.”

Motilal Oswal stated in its research report that “We expect the company to clock a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of ~19%/19%/45% over FY21-24E. The stock trades at 30x FY24 EPS. We maintain our Buy rating, with revised TP of INR540/share (35x FY24E EPS).”

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The stock has been picked from the brokerage report of Motilal Oswal. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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3 Best ELSS Plans To Invest Which Are Rated No 1 By Crisil

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Union Long Term Equity Fund

This is an ELSS fund, which like all other ELSS funds has a lock-in period of 3-years. This fund has done well over the years and has reported a returns of nearly 46% over the last 1-year and an annualized returns of 23.20% over the last 3-years and 17.20% over the last 5-years. The SIP returns have been a solid 41% over the last 1-year.

Having said that of course it had largely to do with the way the markets have rallied. However, going forward we do not expect stupendous returns. The fund has holdings including names like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, HDFC and Ultratech Cement.

The equity holdings in the fund is almost 96%. We suggest that investors should not invest lumpsum and stick to the SIP route for investments.

BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund

BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund

The BOI Axa Advantage Tax Fund is another ELSS scheme that has been rated No 1 by CRISIL. The 1-year returns from the fund has been 59.75%, while the 3-year returns has been 29.79% and the 5-year returns has been 20.95%. The fund has been a good and consistent performer over the years.

The portfolio of the fund consists of names like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Infosys and Divis Labs.

Over the last few months we have been telling investors to invest only through SIPs as the markets have gone-up sharply and are at dangerously high levels. We continue to maintain the same stance. Investors need to be very careful with the Sensex at around the 59,000 points level. Invest only in small amounts.

Quant Tax Plan

Quant Tax Plan

This is a highly rated ELSS plan that has also been rated 5-star by Morningstar, apart from the No 1 ratings by CRISIL. This is an open ended fund whose net asset value under the growth plan is currently Rs 219.49. A new investor can invest a sum of Rs 500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter.

For Systematic Investment Plan (SIP), the minimum amount is Rs 500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. As there is a lock-in of three years for all ELSS plans, because of sec80c benefits, there is no exit load.

The investment objective of the Scheme is to generate Capital Appreciation by investing predominantly in a well diversified portfolio of Equity Shares with growth potential. This income may be complemented by possible dividend and other income. All of the ELSS schemes are essentially long-term given that there is a lock-in period of 3-years.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

All readers and investors should note that neither Greynium nor the author of the articles, would be responsible for any decision taken based on these articles. Please consult a professional advisor.

Greynium Information Technologies Pvt Ltd, its subsidiaries, associates, and authors do not accept culpability for losses and/or damages arising based on information in GoodReturns.in



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Bank officers’ body to hold protest against govt’s privatisation plan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Kolkata, Nov 22 (PTI) All India Bank Officers Confederation (AIBOC) on Monday said it will hold a protest programme against the government’s move to privatise public sector banks (PSBs) in Delhi later this month during the winter session of Parliament. AIBOC general secretary Soumya Datta said the government is likely to introduce the bank privatisation Bill in the winter session of Parliament scheduled to commence from November 29.

The government’s move is not based on sound economic logic, but purely a political decision to hand over the banks to “crony capitalists”, Dutta claimed.

Privatising the PSBs will hurt priority sectors of the economy and credit flow to self-help groups (SHGs), he asserted.

Around 70 per cent of the country’s total deposits are with the PSBs, he said alleging that handing them over to private capital will put the common man’s money deposited with these banks into jeopardy.

To protest against this move of the government, AIBOC will start ‘Bharat Yatra’ on November 24, which will culminate at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi on November 29, Dutta said.

He claimed that selling of PSBs to private bodies will lead to financial exclusion and not inclusion.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech had announced that the government will make strategic divestment in two PSBs this fiscal.



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RBI details draft amalgamation plan for PMC Bank, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has detailed a draft scheme for the merger of sick Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank with the newly-formed Unity Small Finance Bank Ltd (USFB), more than two years after PMC was put under restrictions on account of fraud that led to a steep deterioration in the networth of the bank.

According to the scheme, deposits of up to 5 lakh can be claimed by depositors over a period of three to 10 years.

The scheme says depositors can claim up to 50,000 at the end of three years, 1 lakh at the end of four years, 3 lakh at the end of five years and 5.50 lakh at the end 10 years.

It may be recalled that the RBI had doubled the amount depositors can withdraw from PMC Bank to 1 lakh from 50,000 in June 2020, allowing more than 84% of the depositors to withdraw their entire account balance. RBI said the above limits are for depositors over and above the withdrawals already made.

According to this schedule, the entire remaining deposits of PMC Bank depositors will be paid back within 10 years from the date the central government notifies this scheme of amalgamation.

Further, the central bank has clarified that interest on these deposits shall not accrue after March 31, 2021 for five years.

“No further interest will be payable on the interest bearing deposits of transferor bank for a period of five years from the appointed date. Provided further that interest at the rate of 2.75% per annum shall be paid on the retail deposits of the transferor bank (PMC), which shall be remaining outstanding after the said period of five years from the appointed date. This interest will be payable from the date after five years from the appointed date,” RBI said.

According to the scheme, 80% of uninsured institutional deposits will be converted into perpetual non-cumulative preference shares (PNCPS) of Unity SFB with dividend of 1% per annum payable annually.

After 10 years from the appointed date, Unity SFB may consider additional benefits for PNCPS holders either in the form of providing a step-up in coupon rate or a call option, upon receipt of approval from RBI.

The remaining 20% of the institutional deposits will be converted into equity warrants of Unity SFB at a price of `1 per warrant. These equity warrants will further be converted into equity shares of the Unity SFB at the time of the initial public offer when it goes for one.

“In respect of every other liability of the transferor bank (PMC), the transferee bank (Unity) shall pay only the principal amounts, as and when they fall due, to the creditors in terms of the agreements entered between them prior to the appointed date or the terms and conditions agreed upon,” RBI said.

“Our shareholders have committed capital of over `3,000 crore through cash and warrants, which will be utilised to build a strong foundation for the bank, hire the right talent and bring best-in-class technology,” Unity Small Finance Bank said in a statement.

In June, RBI had given an in-principle nod to Unity SFB, a joint venture of Centrum Financial Services and Resilient Innovations that runs BharatPe, to take over PMC.



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PMC Bank’s retail depositors face long wait to get full money, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: Retail depositors with over Rs 15 lakh in Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank will have to wait for 10 years to get all their money back. The timeline is in terms of a resolution plan drawn up by the RBI, which involves the defunct cooperative lender’s amalgamation with the newly formed Unity Small Finance Bank (SFB).

The resolution of PMC Bank through private investment using the SFB licence route is the first time such an exit option has been adopted for stakeholders in a failed bank.

Institutional depositors, including cooperative housing societies and cooperative credit societies which have deposits in the bank, will end up taking a haircut. The resolution plan envisages 80% of their funds being converted into perpetual non-cumulative preference shares with a dividend of only 1% per annum. After 10 years, the bank can decide if it wants to increase the dividend or repay investors. The remaining 20% of institutional funds will be converted into equity warrants of Unity SFB at Re 1 per warrant. These warrants will be converted into shares whenever Unity SFB floats a public issue. For retail investors, interest at the rate of 2.75% will be paid on deposits that are outstanding after five years from the date of notification of the scheme.

The draft proposals will be finalised and implemented through a government notification after taking into account suggestions and objections up to December 10, 2021. Going by experience, major changes are unlikely under the scheme as there is a huge gap between the assets and liabilities of the bank due to large-scale fraud and there are no other bidders to take over the business.

“Given the financial condition of the PMC Bank, and in the absence of proposals for capital infusion, the bank was not viable on its own. In that event, the only course of action could have been the cancellation of its licence and taking it for liquidation, wherein depositors would have received payment up to the insurance ceiling of Rs 5 lakh,” the RBI said.

Unity SFB, which has been promoted by Centrum and Bharat Pe, said that 96% of all depositors will get immediate access to their deposits and 99% will get paid in full by the 5th year. It added that the scheme saves the bank from liquidation and protects the interest of stakeholders.

“The draft scheme provides much-needed relief and clarity to over 1,100 PMC Bank employees, who will remain employed and continue uninterrupted service to clients,” the statement said. It added that the bank was operationalised in record time after RBI’s approval on October 12, 2021. “Our shareholders have committed capital of over Rs 3,000 crore through cash and warrants which will be used to build a strong foundation for the bank,” the SFB said.



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Punjab National Bank denies any data theft, system breach, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Punjab National Bank on Monday said there had been no breach of its systems or pilferage of personal data of customers and account holders. The state-run lender, in a statement, said it had thoroughly checked its systems and that the reported attempt of perpetrator was monitored and checked.

PNB has implemented stringent security controls in all our ICT (information and communications technology) systems,” said the bank, adding that it has deployed data leak prevention solutions which prevent any unauthorised data to be sent through email.

Cyber security firm CyberX9 had said that a vulnerability in the server of Punjab National Bank exposed the personal and financial information of its about 180 million customers for about seven months and that the bank fixed the vulnerability when CyberX9 notified PNB through CERT-In and NCIIPC.

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OkCredit report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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– Anushka Sengupta

More than 30 lakh customers came forward to settle their credit this festive season. Credit given per active merchant went up by 23%, a report by OkCredit revealed.

The oldest form of ‘Buy Now Pay Later‘ has been a part of the small and medium sized businesses space, where customers who buy from local stores do not pay upfront, but pay later. These merchants usually keep an account for their customers, and the customers repay the bills later.

Such merchants added 1 million customers during the period, repayments were up 12% than average, and merchants booked 15% growth during the two-week festive period, it said.

Digital payments have played a huge role in helping mom and pop stores recover credit. As per the report, the number of credit lines settled digitally have gone up by 100% since last year, showing adoption of online payments in digital book keeping. There has been a 70% increase in retail small and medium sized businesses adopting a digital solution to manage their books.

Merchants in eateries, school supplies, travel, jewellery and kirana shops saw the highest growth. On an overall basis, transactions have grown by 20% compared with the festive season a year ago.

Each merchant category on OkCredit has seen an increase in customers. The most significant growth has been witnessed by retailers in the following categories :-
1) School supplies and stationary – 39%
2) Travel agencies – 26%
3) Eateries – 25%
4) Gold & Jewellery – 17%
5) Electronics – 12%

BNPL sees surge in repayments this Diwali season : OkCredit report

The increased repayments and growth in retail small and medium sized businesses (SMBs) also point to a healthy recovery in the economy, especially in tier-2 and tier-3 towns, as these towns account for a significant chunk of OkCredit’s merchant base, the report said.

Gaurav Kunwar, Cofounder & CPO at OkCredit says, “We wanted to measure category-wise impact of the Diwali shopping season among retail SMBs.
It was heartening to see credit recovery being high, in places such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Manipur, it was 30% higher than rest of the country.”

BNPL sees surge in repayments this Diwali season : OkCredit report

Merchants in states such as Kerala and Karnataka have seen 8% growth in business. The North-Eastern states have seen the highest growth, topped by Manipur where transactions per merchant increased by 22%.



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Digital disbursement of loans jumped twelve-fold between 2017 and 2020: RBI panel report

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A majority of loans disbursed digitally by NBFCs were personal loans, followed by loans classified as ‘others’. These primarily include consumer finance loans.

The overall volume of loan disbursements through the digital mode grew more than twelve-fold between 2017 and 2020 to Rs 1.42 lakh crore from Rs 11,671 crore, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) working group on digital lending apps said in its report.

The panel’s findings were based on data received from a sample of lenders representing 75% and 10% of the total assets of banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) respectively as on March 31, 2020. The report observed that lending through the digital mode relative to the physical mode is still at a nascent stage in case of banks (Rs 1.12 lakh crore via the digital mode vis-à-vis Rs 53.08 lakh crore via the physical mode). In case of NBFCs, a higher proportion of lending (Rs 0.23 lakh crore via the digital mode vis-à-vis Rs 1.93 lakh crore via the physical mode) is happening through the digital mode.

“In 2017, there was not much difference between banks (0.31%) and NBFCs (0.55%) in terms of the share of total amount of loan disbursed through digital mode whereas NBFCs were lagging in terms of total number of loans with a share of 0.68% vis-à-vis 1.43% for banks. Since then, NBFCs have made great strides in lending through digital mode,” the group said in the report.

Private sector banks and NBFCs with shares of 55% and 30% respectively, are the dominant entities in the digital lending ecosystem. The share of NBFCs rose to 30.3% in 2020 from 6.3% in 2017, indicating their increasing adoption of technological innovations, the report said. During the same period, public sector banks also increased their share significantly to 13.1% from 0.3%. The working group attributed the prominent role of NBFCs in fostering digital modes of lending to the flexible regulatory regime they are subjected to.

The major products disbursed digitally by banks were found to be personal loans, followed by small and medium enterprises (SME) loans. A few private sector banks and foreign banks are also offering buy now pay later (BNPL) loans through the digital route.

A majority of loans disbursed digitally by NBFCs were personal loans, followed by loans classified as ‘others’. These primarily include consumer finance loans. “Even though the amount disbursed under BNPL loans is only 0.73% (banks) and 2.07% (NBFCs) of the total amount disbursed, the volumes are quite significant indicating a large number of small size loans for consumption,” the report said.

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PMC Bank depositors with over Rs 5 lakh in deposits to get paid over 10 years

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Unity SFB shall have time up to 20 years from the appointed date to repay the amount received from DICGC towards payment to the insured depositors, which can be done in one installment or in several instalments.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday released the draft scheme for the amalgamation of Punjab and Maharashtra Co-operative (PMC) Bank with Unity Small Finance Bank (SFB). The scheme envisages a full payout for depositors with deposits of over Rs 5 lakh over a period of 10 years.

Unity SFB, promoted jointly by Centrum Financial Services and BharatPe owner Resilient Innovation, will have to transfer the amount received from the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) to all eligible depositors of PMC Bank an amount equal to the balance in their deposit accounts up to Rs 5 lakh, within a 90-day period, as was notified by the DICGC in September.

For depositors who hold more than Rs 5 lakh in deposits, the payout for the additional amount will be made in a staggered manner. Up to Rs 50,000 will be paid over the next two years, up to another Rs 1 lakh after three years, up to Rs 3 lakh after four years, up to Rs 5.5 lakh after five years, and any remaining amount will be paid after 10 years.

After March 31, 2021, no further interest will be payable on the interest-bearing deposits of PMC Bank for a period of five years. In respect of balances in any current account or any other non-interest bearing account, no interest shall be payable to the account holders. Interest will accrue at the rate of 2.75% per annum shall be paid on the retail deposits of PMC Bank, which remain outstanding after the five year-period. This interest will be payable from the date after five years from the appointed date, or the date of notification of the scheme by the government.

As for institutional depositors, 80% of the uninsured deposits outstanding in various accounts to the credit of each institutional depositor of PMC Bank shall be converted into perpetual non-cumulative preference shares (PNCPS) of Unity SFB with a dividend of 1% per annum payable annually. After 10 years from the appointed date, the transferee bank may consider additional benefits for such PNCPS holders either in the form of providing a step up in the coupon rate or a call option, after taking the RBI’s approval.

The remaining 20% of the uninsured institutional deposits will be converted into equity warrants of Unity SFB at a price of one rupee per warrant. These equity warrants will further be converted into shares of Unity SFB at the time of the initial public offer (IPO) of the bank. The price for the conversion will be determined at the lower band of the IPO price.

In respect of every other liability of PMC Bank, Unity SFB shall pay only the principal amounts, as and when they fall due, to the creditors in terms of the agreements entered between them prior to the appointed date or the terms and conditions agreed upon.

Unity SFB shall have time up to 20 years from the appointed date to repay the amount received from DICGC towards payment to the insured depositors, which can be done in one installment or in several instalments. “The transferee bank shall create a reserve account in its books and make periodical transfers to it as may be approved by Reserve Bank, for the purpose of discharging its liability towards DICGC in accordance with the provisions of this Scheme,” the draft said.

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Cost of funds has not bottomed out, still room for lowering

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We have an adequate CRAR of 32-34% and we think we can leverage it more.

Manappuram Finance reported an 8.8% year-on-year decline in its consolidated net profit for the second quarter despite consolidated assets under management increasing 5.7% YoY to Rs 28,421.63 crore. VP Nandakumar, MD & CEO, talks to Rajesh Ravi on the company’s performance and future outlook. Excerpts:

Net profit has declined YoY despite AUM reporting an increase?

The loan portfolio declined during the first quarter and we started growing only after the first half of the second quarter. Secondly, we lowered our pricing when targeting large ticket sizes. Earlier, it was uniform pricing for all loans. To ensure sustained growth, we changed our strategy. Cost also increased as employees are back and travelling. We also increased our publicity expenses and incentives.

Do you mean that there will be margin compression going forward due to competition?

Competition is seen only in larger ticket sizes of Rs 5 lakh and above. We were losing in that segment due to competition. With the new pricing strategy, we are gaining ground, but our yield may come down by 2%. This will be compensated with higher branch efficiency. We have an adequate CRAR of 32-34% and we think we can leverage it more.

What is the outlook for the quarter and the fiscal?

We are giving guidance of 20% in AUM and 20% in Return on equity (ROE). The decline in profitability is a temporary phenomenon and our ROE may go slightly below 20% for a while before bouncing back. We aim not only for profitability but also growth and this ensures the sustainability of the company. Profitability will improve in one or two quarters.

NPA has increased during Q2.

NPA has moved up and we have provided for it in anticipation. There was no surprise. NPA will come down going forward.

How is new customer acquisition? There is a tight competition in the gold loan sector.

Demand is good and we are able to achieve growth every day due to the new strategy. The collection is also improving even in the non-gold sector. Acquisition of new customers is back to the pre-pandemic level.

What about the cost of funds? Do you feel that it has bottomed out?

No, it has not bottomed out. Still, there is room for lowering the cost of fund. Our legacy NCD cost is around 10%, while our average borrowing cost is below 8%. For incremental borrowing, our cost will come down further.

Average LTV of your gold loan portfolio?

The average LTV of our portfolio is 64% according to current gold price.

How are your non-gold businesses doing? Will the share of non-gold businesses increase in coming quarters?

In microfinance, collections are seen improving and it has reached 93% in Q2. It may touch 96% in Q3. The resilience of the microfinance industry is evident despite the pandemic. In one or two years, we may have to raise capital for growth. Some of the segments which we wish to grow are affordable home lending and commercial vehicle financing.

What about the expansion of branches?

We have given application for opening 100 new branches. We are strong in south, and there are ample opportunities in north, east and western parts of the country.

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