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Earnings of Indian banks will get a boost from easing non-performing loans and the nation’s economic recovery that will drive demand for credit.

Many large banks saw their nonperforming loan ratios decline “as new NPA formation was more than offset by recoveries on retail loans,” said Nikita Anand, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings, after both private-sector and government-owned banks reported an improvement in overall asset quality in the fiscal second quarter that ended Sept. 30. “[The banks’] earnings have improved with credit costs moderating,” he said.

As on September 30, the weak loan ratio peaked close to 10 per cent. Credit costs, which reflect provisioning on bad loans, will also likely hit their lowest level in 7 years. This in turn should boost earnings, according to S&P.

State Bank of India, the country’s largest bank by assets, reported total NPAs of Rs 1.25 lakh crore for the quarter ended September 30, down from Rs 1.36 lakh crore in the previous quarter and Rs 1.27 lakh crore in the same period a year ago. Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank also saw quarter-over-quarter falls in NPAs.

Meanwhile, the ratings agency said that it is sceptical of allowing corporate ownership in banks, given India’s weak corporate governance. Corporate ownership of banks raises risks of intergroup lending, diversion of funds and reputational exposure, it said. Currently, the Reserve Bank of India refrained from allowing corporate ownership in banks.

Economy on mend

India’s economy grew 20.1% year over year in the April-to-June quarter, recovering from a 24.4% contraction in the same period of 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic forced a strict lockdown across the country. The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to grow about 9.5% in the fiscal year to March 2022, and Governor Shaktikanta Das on November 16 underscored the “need for sustained impetus so that growth could return to, or better still, exceed the pre-pandemic trend.”

The rating agency said that the economy’s expansion is expected to outpace that of developing market peers in the coming few years. “In comparison, some tourism-dependent countries, such as Thailand, are likely to see long-term scarring as we expect only a gradual resumption of travel-related industries,” they agency said.

Ahead of the Diwali festive season, gross bank credit grew 6.7% year over year in both August and September, reversing a contraction earlier in the year, central bank data show.

“With cash flows improving for underlying borrowers due to easing of the pandemic and lockdowns, most banks have reported an improvement in asset quality and reduction in nonperforming assets,” said Krishnan Sitaraman, senior director at Crisil, a unit of S&P Global Inc.

“It is also a reflection of the clear improvement in economic fundamentals for the country” after the economy contracted 7.3% in the year that ended March 31, 2021, Sitaraman said.

Banks are likely to sustain their earnings improvement in 2022 if credit costs continue to moderate, though Sitaraman flagged the risk of a possible fresh wave of Covid infections and its potential impact on economic activity.

Better earnings

The net profit of State Bank of India in the second quarter rose to Rs 8,890 crore from Rs 5,246 crore in the prior-year period. ICICI Bank Ltd’s net profit increased to Rs 6,092 crore from Rs 4,882 crore in the prior-year period.

SBI’s credit cost and net interest margin profile were better than expectations, ICICI Securities said in a note after the lender reported its earnings. SBI’s management expects an opportunity to grow its corporate and small business portfolios as economic activity picks up, the merchant banking and retail broking arm of India’s second-biggest private-sector lender by assets said in a note. “SBI also has sufficient capital and liquidity on balance sheet to support growth.”

HDFC Bank, the country’s largest private-sector bank, saw its NPLs ease to Rs 21,000 crore from Rs 23,000 crore in the first quarter. The lender said its bad loans from small-and-medium scale businesses declined over the previous quarter and the corporate book is resilient, suggesting that a bigger part of incremental delinquency is flowing from the retail and agriculture segments, ICICI Securities said in a note after HDFC reported its earnings.

“Further curtailment of slippages, better recoveries and improved collections will support asset quality trends in coming quarters [for HDFC Bank],” according to ICICI Securities.