SBI to engage consultant for performance evaluation of Directors

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State Bank of India (SBI) has decided to engage the services of a consultant to carry out performance evaluation of all the Directors on the Board of the Bank, Central Board and Board Level Committees.

Currently, India’s largest bank has 13 Directors on the Central Board and 10 Board Level Committees, including Executive Committee of the Central Board, Audit Committee, Risk Management Committee, and Nomination & Remuneration Committee.

The consultant is expected to devise parameters for performance evaluation and assess the quality, quantity and timelines of flow of information between management and the board of directors that is necessary for the Central Board, Chairman, Directors (Executive and Non-executive), and Board Level Committees to effectively and reasonably perform their duties.

Prepare questionnaires

Accordingly, the consultant is required to prepare questionnaires separately for Central Board, Chairman, Executive Directors (other than Chairman), Non-Executive Directors and Board Level Committees and deploy an online platform to receive feedback.

The parameters that the consultant draws up for performance evaluation will include the aspects suggested by Nomination & Remuneration Committee of the Bank. The consultant will have one to one interaction with the Directors for evaluation and prepare a report on the performance evaluation exercise along with recommendations/views for improvement.

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Reserve Bank of India – Tenders

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E-tender- No: RBI/Kochi/Estate/219/21-22/ET/293

Reserve Bank of India, Kochi invites two-part tender by e-tender mode from the empanelled contractors of RBI, Kochi for Design, Supply, Installation, Testing and Commissioning of Electrical Energy Meter Panels for Officer’s Quarters, Reserve Bank of India- Kochi. The tendering would be done through the e-Tendering portal of MSTC Ltd (http://mstcecommerce.com/eprochome/rbi). All interested bidders must regiser themselves with MSTC Ltd through the above-mentioned website to participate in the tendering process.

The Schedule of e-Tender is as follows:

a. E-Tender No. RBI/Kochi/Estate/219/21-22/ET/293
b. Name of work: Design, Supply, Installation, Testing and Commissioning of Electrical Energy Meter Panels for Officer’s Quarters, Reserve Bank of India- Kochi.
c. Mode of Tender e-Procurement System Online (Part I – Techno-Commercial Bid and Part II – Financial Bid through MSTC portal https://www.mstcecommerce.com/eprochome/rbi)
d. Date of NIT available to the parties to download / View Tender Time 11:00 Hrs of December 01, 2021 onwards
e. Date and venue of the Pre-Bid Meeting (Offline) 11:00 Hrs of December 08, 2021, at Premises (Estate) section, Reserve Bank of India, Kochi.
f. Uploading the outcome of Pre-bid meeting on to RBI website in the form of addendum, corrigendum, etc. Before 14.00 Hrs of December 10, 2021
g. Estimated cost of work ₹6 lakhs (Rupees Six Lakhs only) inclusive of GST
h. Earnest Money Deposit (EMD) ₹12,000/- (Rupees Twelve thousand only)
(Only successful bidder has to remit EMD)

MSEs having Udyam Registration Number (Udyog Aadhar Memorandum Number) irrespective of the category, are exempted from payment / submission of EMD.

i. Bidding start date of Techno-Commercial Bid and Financial Bid at https://mstcecommerce.com/eprochome/rbi 14:00 Hrs. of December 10, 2021
j. Date of closing of online e-Tender for submission of Techno-Commercial Bid & Financial Bid 14:00 Hrs. of December 22, 2021
k. Date & time of opening of Part-I (i.e. Techno-Commercial Bid) 15:00 Hrs. of December 22, 2021
l. Date & Time of opening of Part- II (Financial Bid) Opening of Financial Bid shall be intimated separately
m. Transaction Fee Amount as advised by M/s MSTC Ltd.

Applicants intending to apply will have to satisfy the Bank by furnishing documentary evidence in support of their possessing required eligibility and in the event of their failure to do so, the Bank reserves the right to reject their candidature.

Any amendments / corrigendum to the tender, if any, issued in future will only be notified on the RBI Website and MSTC Website as given above and will not be published in the newspaper.

(Vijay Kumar Nayak)
General Manager (O-i-C)
Reserve Bank of India
Kochi

December 01, 2021

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CRED to acquire Happay for $180 million

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Fintech unicorn CRED plans to acquire Happay, a corporate expense management company.

The acquisition is expected to be a cash-and-stock deal, potentially valuing Happay at about $180 million. While Happay will operate as a separate entity, the team will work closely with CRED to expand the product offering and drive scale. Happay’s 230-member team will get all the benefits extended to CRED team members, including the ESOP programme.

Happay is a business expense, payments and travel management platform serving over 6,000 businesses. It manages work-related expenses for over one million users globally, with about $1 billion in annual spends. Its customers include TATA group, PwC, Maruti, OYO, Byju’s and Udaan, among others.

CRED targets ₹100-crore ESOP buyback this year

Kunal Shah, founder, CRED, said, “Turning the pain of credit card management into a delight has enabled CRED to grow rapidly over the past three years. With professional expenses forming a significant portion of credit card spends, bringing professional expense management into the CRED ecosystem is a natural extension of our proposition. Happay’s product strength, customer experience, and vision align with our intent at CRED to reward responsible financial behaviour and we’re excited to partner them in their journey towards leading the category.”

Buoyancy in retail credit growth expected to last

Anshul Rai, co-founder and CEO, Happay, said, “We’ve invested in building a category-defining product at Happay with thousands of customers who love the experience. The next phase of our growth will come from building scale, brand, and distribution.”

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Cryptos, far from the regulators’ glare

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The manner in which cryptocurrencies which began as innocuous playthings of geeks went on to become the most sought after asset class and a threat to traditional cross-border payment channels, while managing to stay beyond the reach of regulators, shows the challenges that digital innovation pose.

The original white paper on Bitcoin, put out by its founder, the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, described it as, “a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash (that) would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

Most regulators did not take it seriously then, since its usage appeared to be limited to a few rebels who wanted to express their displeasure against the traditional fiat currencies. But Bitcoin has cloned thousands of other cryptocurrencies, which are no longer innocent payment channels but have morphed into a highly speculative asset and conduits of illicit cross-border money transfers.

The experience with cryptocurrencies shows that fintech products and innovations need to be taken more seriously going ahead and quickly brought under the regulatory radar before they grow in to a many-headed monster. There are other similar digital innovations such as digital lending or algo trades that have grown surreptitiously in the shadows in a similar manner with the regulators struggling to frame rules them.

Digital lending entities

More than a decade ago, the usurious practices of microfinance companies charging exorbitant rates of interests, harassing and shaming borrowers had led to a spate of suicides making the RBI issue regulations to check the lenders in this space. The same sequence of events is now being repeated, but in digital space.

As the Covid-19 pandemic hit the livelihoods and small businesses, digital lending apps turned out to be a ready source of money to these small borrowers. While funds could be accessed for extremely short periods, ranging from 7 to 15 days, the rates of interest charged by the digital lenders were extremely high, ranging from 60 to 100 per cent, according to reports. These apps required the borrower to give them permission to access all the information on their smartphones under the garb of doing KYC checks. The problem started when the borrowers were unable to repay the loans. They were harassed, publicly shamed and even blackmailed leading to some borrowers even resorting to the extreme step of taking their lives.

The RBI had taken note of these malpractices and issued an advisory in December and had also opened a portal for registering complaints. It recently set up a working group to give recommendations on regulating these businesses.

The swiftness shown by the central bank in trying to bring digital lending entities under regulatory purview is laudable. It’s clear that there is demand for loans from such digital lenders and total clamp-down on this space is not a good idea. Weeding out the bad players and ensuring that the lending activities continue with sufficient protection to borrowers is the way forward.

But the point to note is the manner in which the miscreants were quick to find a regulatory gap and begin operations. This requires equal amount of agility from regulators as well.

Dealing with algo trading

Another instance of a digital innovation blind-siding regulators was seen in the proliferation of algorithmic or programmed trading in Indian stock exchanges. These trades that require little or no manual intervention, where computer programs shoot orders to the exchange servers at lightning speed, currently account for over 60 per cent of turnover in derivatives section and 50 per cent in cash segment of the NSE.

There was a lot of furore about these algo trading around 2012 when it was first revealed that programmed trading, especially from colocation sites located close to exchange servers, are ahead of the small investors in trade execution due to their proximity to the exchanges. Further, the high-frequency-trading programs and other rogue programs were gaming the market to stay ahead of other traditional traders.

But no one could explain how or when algo trading had started on Indian exchanges and how they had become so widespread by 2012. The market regulator was in a fix then, since banning algos would have resulted in depriving liquidity from market and making FPIs turn away. SEBI decided to embrace algos and regulate them by issuing guidelines to exchanges, intermediaries and investors about dealing with algos.

We had dealt with this logjam in https://www.thehindubusinessline. com/opinion/columns/lokeshwarri-sk/ learn-to-live-with-algo-trading/ article22995759.ece

Regulating cryptos will be tricky

With fintech adoption growing at a break-neck speed in the country with growing smart phone and data accessibility, it is clear that innovative products that fox regulators and at times border on the illegal will keep cropping up. Regulators need to be on their toes and increase the strength of their digital surveillance team which has the skills to understand these products.

But, while innovations like digital lending and algo trading can be regulated and streamlined by regulators, cryptocurrencies will be much more challenging. This is because — one, it is hard to categorise cryptocurrencies as either currency or asset. So determining the regulator for them is quite difficult. Two, the creation or mining of the cryptocurrencies takes place globally and hence cannot be controlled. While trading can be banned in India, it will continue in other global trading platforms which can be easily accessed by Indians. Three, the investors of these crypto assets are mostly not the investors of traditional asset classes.

Hence it may not be possible for issuing reactive regulations for these crypto assets and absorb them into the mainstream as done for other tech innovations. A global consensus on crypto mining and trading could be the way forward, with uniform rules and regulations framed for crypto trading platforms in all countries. While the contours of the Cryptocurrency Bill to be presented in Parliament is awaited, the last word has not yet been said on taming this beast.

The last two decades have seen rapid innovation in fintech with these digital entities seeping into spaces hitherto occupied by traditional banks, insurance companies, stock brokers, investment advisories, and so on. Some of these entities have tried pushing the boundary between the acceptable and unacceptable, ethical and unethical, legal and illegal and, in many instances, regulators have been caught sleeping at the wheel. Regulators will have to upskill and increase the manpower equipped to deal with fintech entities so that they are not caught off-guard, once too often.

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IPO rush continues; 10 cos line up public issues worth Rs 10,000 cr in Dec, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi, Dec 1 : The IPO lane will continue to be busy in December as 10 companies have lined up initial share-sale plans worth more than Rs 10,000 crore, merchant banking sources said on Wednesday. Moreover, the initial public offerings of Star Health and Allied Insurance and Tega Industries are currently open for public subscription.

This comes after 10 firms successfully concluded their initial public offerings (IPOs) in November.

Among the companies that scheduled their IPOs in this month include RateGain Travel Technologies, travel and hospitality technology services provider, and Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd, part of Mumbai-based financial services group Anand Rathi.

RateGain’s Rs 1,335-crore initial share-sale will open for public subscription during December 7-9, and the Rs 660-crore IPO of Anand Rathi Wealth will open on December 2.

In addition, the companies that have firmed up their IPO plans are — Global Health Ltd, which operates and manages hospitals under the Medanta brand, pharmacy retail chain MedPlus Health Services and Healthium Medtech, merchant banking sources said.

Apart from these, Metro Brands, Shriram Properties, AGS Transact Technologies, Shri Bajrang Power and Ispat and VLCC Health Care may also float their public issues in the period under review, they added.

Investment bankers said these companies will raise more than Rs 10,000 crore collectively.

The companies are raising funds to support business expansion plans, to retire debt and for general corporate purposes.

Some of the IPOs are an offer for sale (OFS), where private equity players or the promoter wants to cash out part of their holding.

Prateek Singh, founder and CEO of LearnApp.com, attributed the impressive pipeline to the bull run in the equity markets.

“The best time for any company to go for an IPO is during the Bull market, which is also the reason why many companies are going for a public listing at this time. Companies look to tap into the sentiment from the public markets at such opportune times and are highly successful,” he said.

Further, initial share-sales are receiving tremendous applications from the investors and IPOs have been subscribing multifold times.This has pushed companies to raise funds through IPO.

He further said the trend will continue and more tech companies will try to go public in the immediate future until the market calms down and moves downward.

“So, if the markets fall in the future, the IPOs will also reduce,” he added.

So far in 2021, as many as 51 companies have launched their IPOs to raise over Rs 1 lakh crore, according to analysis of data with exchanges.

Apart from these, PowerGrid InvIT, the infrastructure investment trust (InvIT) sponsored by the Power Grid Corporation of India, mopped-up Rs 7,735 crore through its IPO and Brookfield India Real Estate Trust raised Rs 3,800 crore via its initial share-sale.

The fundraising so far this year is way higher than the Rs 26,611 crore collected by 15 companies through initial share-sales in the entire 2020.

Such impressive fundraising through IPOs was last seen in 2017 when firms mobilised Rs 67,147 crore through 36 initial share-sales.



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States debt-to-GDP ratio worryingly higher than FY23 target, says RBI report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai, The combined debt-to-GDP ratio of states is expected to remain at 31 per cent by end-March 2022 which is worryingly higher than the target of 20 per cent to be achieved by 2022-23, according to a RBI report. The Reserve Bank’s annual publication titled ‘State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2021-22’ further said as the impact of the second COVID-19 wave wanes, state governments need to take credible steps to address debt sustainability concerns.

“The combined debt to GDP ratio of States which stood at 31 per cent at end-March 2021 and is expected to remain at that level by end-March 2022, is worryingly higher than the target of 20 per cent to be achieved by 2022-23, as per the recommendations of the FRBM Review Committee,” it said.

In view of the pandemic induced slowdown, in its projections, the 15th Finance Commission expects the debt-GDP ratio to peak at 33.3 per cent in 2022-23 (in view of the higher deficits in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23), and gradually decline thereafter to reach 32.5 per cent by 2025-26.

The RBI report noted that the budgeted consolidated gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of 3.7 per cent of GDP for states for the year 2021-22 – lower than the 4 per cent level as recommended by the FC-XV (15th Finance Commission)- reflect the state governments’ intent towards fiscal consolidation.

According to the report, in the medium term, improvements in the fiscal position of state governments will be contingent upon reforms in the power sector as recommended by FC-XV and specified by the Centre – creating transparent and hassle-free provision of power subsidy to farmers; preventing leakages; and improving the health of the power distribution companies (DISCOMs) by alleviating their liquidity stress in a sustainable manner.

“Timely payments of state dues to DISCOMS and, in turn, by them to Generation Companies (GENCOS) hold the key to the sector’s financial health,” it said.

The report said undertaking power sector reforms will not only facilitate additional borrowings of 0.25 per cent of GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product ) by the states but also reduce their contingent liabilities due to improvement in financial health of the DISCOMs.

It pointed out that in 2020-21, the first wave of the pandemic posed states the critical challenge of declining revenue and the need for higher spending.

To partially offset the revenue shortfall, the report said states hiked their duties on petrol, diesel and alcohol and focused on rationalising non-priority expenditures to make room for higher expenditure on healthcare and social services.

According to the report, the year 2021-22 started on a similar note, with the outbreak of the second wave.

“However, the impact of the second wave on state finances is likely to be less severe than the first wave due to less stringent and localised restrictions imposed this time as opposed to the nationwide lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19,” it observed.



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5 More IPOs Lined Up For December 2021 Launch

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1. Anand Rathi Wealth:

Offer period -Dec 2-Dec 6, 2021

Issue size- Rs. 660 crore

IPO price band- Rs. 530-550

The issue is completely an offer for sale (OFS) of 1.2 crore equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders. Listing of the scrip shall be on December 14, 2021.

Company profile: The company registered as a mutual fund distributor is in the business of private wealth since 2002. The company’s total AUM as on August 31, 2021 stands at Rs. 30,209 crore. The company serves its HNI and UHNIs from across 11 locations in the country.

Notably the grey market premium which has zoomed ahead of the opening of the issue signals a good interest for the IPO.

2. Rain Gain Travel Tech:

2. Rain Gain Travel Tech:

Offer period- December 7-9

Issue size: Rs. 1336 crore

Price band- Rs. 405-425

Minimum bid: 1 lot -35 equity shares entailing an investment of Rs. 14,875

The public issue comprises a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 375 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 2,26,05,530 equity shares by promoters and an investor.

The fresh issue proceeds will be put towards repaying debts availed by subsidiary RateGain UK; payment of deferred consideration for taking over DHISCO; and strategic investments, acquisitions and inorganic growth. Addiionally the funds will be put for technology innovation, AI, other organic growth purposes, purchasing capital equipment for data centre and additional corporate purposes.

RateGain is a Software as a Service (SaaS) company in the hospitality and travel industry. The company caters to a wide array of verticals namely hotels, airlines, online travel agents, meta-search companies, vacation rentals, package providers, car rentals, rail, travel management companies, cruises and ferries.

The issue will list on December 17, 2021.

3. CE Infosystems:

3. CE Infosystems:

The company that operates MapmyIndia will open next week to mop up Rs. 1400 crore. The issue shall be a complete offer for sale of 7.55 million shares being offloaded by the company’s promoters as well as current shareholders that includes Qualcomm Asia Pacific.

The company provides its proprietary digital maps as SaaS. As per the company’s website the other offerings include geospatial software and location-based IOT technologies.

4. Adani Wilmar:

4. Adani Wilmar:

The issue as per reports is likely to open before mid-December. As part of the issue company will be issuing fresh shares worth Rs. 4500 crore. The proceeds from the issue will be put for financing capex, acquisitions, repayment of debt and other corporate purposes.

The company will be selling Rs 4,500 crore of newly-issued shares. From the proceeds, it plans to use Rs 1,900 crore for capital expenditure, Rs 500 crore for funding strategic acquisitions and the rest to repay debt and for general corporate purposes.

Adani Wilmar is among one of the few large FMCG companies offering most of the essential kitchen commodities for Indian consumers, including edible oil, wheat flour, rice, pulses and sugar.

5. Go First Airlines:

5. Go First Airlines:

Go Airlines (India) running the Go First brand will open its share sale on December 8 to aggregate Rs. 3600 crore.

Offer period -December 8- Dec 10

The issue is entirely fresh equity issuance and not an OFS. As of Fy 2020, the company had a debt of Rs. 1780 crore. The company from the proceeds will pare off its debt and also clear payments outstanding to oil companies and lessors. In the 1HFy22, period the company posted a net loss of Rs. 923 crore and is henceforth working to strengthen its cost saving measures and also planning its fleet to solely comprise A320 Neo aircraft and even considerng higher capacity Airbus A321 neo.

Experts suggested ways for successful allotment of shares in IPO

Experts suggested ways for successful allotment of shares in IPO

We have seen IPOs to fail in the past upon debut or even in the long term, but still in a case if you are too optimistic on an issue and surely desire it to be allotted to you in the initial share sale, you need to follow certain experts’ recommended rules listed as below:

You may apply for the IPO from the demat account of all the family members probably.

Do not make more than application in a single name

You may also place bid from an HUF/minor account

To avoid rejections due to technical reasons, one may apply for IPO via net banking and avoid UPI interface. However if applying via UPI, you should make sure that you approve UPI mandate timely.

Also, PAN details should match both in the demat and bank

Selection of a cut off is a must in case of retail application.

Demat should be in active mode.



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Bank unions threaten two-day nationwide strike against proposed privatisation of PSBs, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), an umbrella body of nine unions, has given a call for a two-day strike from December 16 to protest against the proposed privatisation of two state-owned lenders. In the Union Budget presented in February, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the privatisation of two public sector banks (PSBs) as part of its disinvestment plan.

The government has already privatised IDBI Bank by selling its majority stake in the lender to LIC in 2019 and merged 14 public sector banks in the past four years.

The government has listed the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021, for introduction and passage during the current session of Parliament.

In view of this, UFBU has decided to oppose the move for privatisation, All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA) General Secretary C H Venkatachalam said in a statement.

Strike notice for December 16 and December 17, 2021, has been served by UFBU on the IBA, he said.

In a developing country like India, where banks deal with huge public savings and they have to play a leading role to ensure broad-based economic development, public sector banking with social orientation is the most appropriate and imperative need, he said.

Hence, he said, for the past 25 years, under the banner of UFBU “we have been opposing the policies of banking reforms which are aimed at weakening public sector banks”.

Members of UFBU include All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), All India Bank Officers’ Confederation (AIBOC), National Confederation of Bank Employees (NCBE), All India Bank Officers’ Association (AIBOA) and Bank Employees Confederation of India (BEFI).

Others are Indian National Bank Employees Federation (INBEF), Indian National Bank Officers Congress (INBOC), National Organisation of Bank Workers (NOBW) and National Organisation of Bank Officers (NOBO).



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States need to take credible steps to address debt sustainability concerns: RBI report

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As the impact of the second wave of the Covid pandemic wanes, the State governments need to take credible steps to address debt sustainability concerns, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report.

The report “State Finance: Study of Budgets” noted that the combined debt-to-GDP ratio of States, which stood at 31 per cent at end-March 2021, is expected to remain at that level by end-March 2022 and is worryingly higher than the target of 20 per cent to be achieved by 2022-23, as per the recommendations of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee, chaired by NK Singh.

In view of the pandemic-induced slowdown, the 15th Finance Commission expects the debt-GDP ratio to peak at 33.3 per cent in 2022-23 (given the higher deficits in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23), and gradually decline thereafter to reach 32.5 per cent by 2025-26.

The report observed that the budgeted gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of 3.7 per cent of GDP for States for the year 2021-22 – lower than the 4 per cent level as recommended by the 15th FC – reflects the State governments’ intent towards fiscal consolidation.

The report said in 2021-22 so far (April-September 2021), the gross and net market borrowings by State governments have been 13 per cent and 21 per cent lower than in the corresponding period of the previous year, respectively.

States have preferred to borrow from the financial accommodation provided by the RBI through short-term borrowing via the special drawing facility (SDF) and ways and means advances (WMA).

Additionally, in recent years, the States have been accumulating sizeable cash surpluses in the intermediate treasury bills (ITBs) and auction treasury bills (ATBs), although they involve a negative carry of interest rates for the States. The report underscored that this warrants improvements in cash management practices.

Power sector reforms

The report emphasised that in the medium term, improvements in the fiscal position of State governments will be contingent upon reforms in the power sector as recommended by the 15th FC and specified by the Centre – creating transparent and hassle-free provision of power subsidy to farmers, preventing leakages, and improving the health of the power distribution companies (DISCOMs) by sustainably alleviating their liquidity stress.

The report opined that timely payments of State dues to DISCOMS and, in turn, by them to generation companies (GENCOS) hold the key to the sector’s financial health.

As per the assessment of the RBI’s Department of Economic and Policy Research, undertaking power sector reforms will not only facilitate additional borrowings of 0.25 per cent of GSDP by the States but also reduce their contingent liabilities due to the improvement in the financial health of the DISCOMs.

Third-tier front

On the third-tier (urban local bodies) front, the report recommended increasing the functional autonomy of civic bodies, strengthening their governance structure and financially empowering them via higher resource availability through self-resource generation and transfers, as they are critical for building resilience and effective interventions at the grass-root level.

The State governments should set up State Finance Commissions (SFC) at regular intervals, in line with the recommendations of the 15th FC. The report said States may also urge rural and urban local bodies to make audited accounts available online in a timely manner to access grants.

In addition, States should undertake local body reforms as stipulated by the Centre to improve the financial autonomy of third-tier governments. “Overall, the sub-national fiscal positions are at an inflection point.Empowerment of the third-tier government presents an opportunity that can result in better and more effective pandemic crusaders in the future,” the report said.

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SBI Ecowrap: Private investment revival seems around the horizon

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New investment announcements in the current year look encouraging as around ₹8.6-lakh crore have been declared so far in the last seven months of FY22 (around ₹11 trillion reported last year).

With the private sector contributing around 67 per cent of this i.e., ₹5.80-lakh crore, it seems the private investment revival is on the horizon, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India (SBI), in the latest edition of SBI Ecowrap.

India’s GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in Q2 FY22 on the back of the double-digit growth in ‘mining & quarrying and public administration, defence and other services’. The real GVA increased by 8.5 per cent, a tad higher than the GDP growth.

Nominal GDP growth jumped by 17.5 per cent, driven in part by a GDP deflator at 8.4 per cent. For Q2, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth is 6.6 per cent q-o-q compared to 10.36 per cent q-o-q non-adjusted real GDP growth. Core GVA, a proxy of private sector growth, expanded by 7.5 per cent – the highest since Q1 FY19.

“In H1 FY21, the country exhibited real GDP loss of ₹11.4-lakh crore (on y-o-y basis) due to the complete lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in June-September. The situation has improved in FY22 and in H1 FY22, the real gain was around ₹8.2-lakh crore. This indicates that the real loss of ₹3.2-lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level,” Ghosh said.

Affected sectors

Sector-wise data indicates that ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting’ are still the most affected sectors and the real loss of ₹2.6-lakh crore is still needed to be recouped in this sector.

Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6 per cent of the pre-pandemic level (with the above-mentioned affected sectors still at 80 per cent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses.

In Q2 FY22, the FMCG sector reported a top-line y-o-y growth of 11 per cent while EBIDTA and PAT grew by 4 per cent each. However, the rural markets, which have shown good resilience thus far during the pandemic have slowed in the last couple of months as suggested by some of the industry majors.

However, the results of industry majors whose Q2 FY22 results have been declared (like Dabur) have still not shown a significant slowdown in the rural economy.

“The Q2 estimate of the GDP on the expenditure side largely retains the flavour of trends observed in Q1 FY22. Foremost in quarterly trends, the shares in real terms have decreased for private consumption, government consumption and exports, and have increased for imports and investments and valuables. The component which has also increased is the inventories which have surpassed the pre-Covid level of FY20,” SBI Ecowrap said.

Thus, accounting for the growth in production and concomitant accumulation of inventory, the demand side has not recovered even after the opening of the economy. The massive jump in valuables which implies savings to the tune of 2 per cent of the GDP has moved into precious metals given their inflation hedging property and postponement of marriage in FY21, it added.

“We now expect the GDP growth for FY22 to top 9.5 per cent of the RBI forecast. We believe that the real GDP growth would now be higher than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5 per cent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct,” Ghosh said.

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