More clarity needed to crack the crypto code

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The Reserve Bank of India’s recent notification on ‘Customer Due Diligence for Transactions in Virtual Currencies (VC)’ has sent a wave of cheer across cryptocurrency investors in the country, as it has kindled hopes that it will ensure smoother banking transactionsand further growth and innovation in the industry.

Though this notification has cleared the air regarding transactions in this new asset class to some extent, there continues to be confusion in terms of regulations.

Banks will be complying with the aforementioned RBI directive to not send advisories citing the 2018 circular. But how each of them proceeds in terms of enabling cryptocurrency transactions is still unclear.

Also read: Cybercriminals go after cryptocurrency: Report

The RBI had, on May 31, asked regulated entities to not cite its April 2018 circular on ‘Prohibition on Dealing in Virtual Currencies’ as it is no longer valid following the Supreme Court setting it aside.

Due diligence

The central bank also asked them to continue to carry out customer due diligence processes in line with the governing standards for Know Your Customer, Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Combating of Financing of Terrorism (CFT) and obligations of regulated entities under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002.

Significantly, at the June 4 post monetary policy press conference, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said there is no change in the central bank’s position.

“The RBI’s position is that we have major concerns around cryptocurrency, which we have conveyed to the government,” he said, adding that the central bank’s latest directive sets the record straight that the 2018 circular has been set aside and that it is not correct to refer to it.

Regulation

Apart from the Supreme Court ruling of March 2020, there is no clear guidance on the sector. While the larger debate on the legality of cryptocurrencies continues, key issues that also need to be resolved include those related to licensing and investor grievances, taxation and banking.

The only word that has come till now is from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, when it asked companies to disclose in their annual financial statements the amount of cryptocurrencies held as on the reporting date.

However, many countries are now making their stance clear. The US, Japan and South Korea have come out with regulations for cryptocurrencies. Others like China have warned citizens not to deal in cryptocurrencies.

Pointing out that there have been instances of banks using RBI’s 2018 circular to raise objections to cryptocurrency transactions, Ramalingam Subramanian, Head of Brand and Communication, CoinDCX, said the new RBI notification gives clarity and clears the air.

However, he noted: “Regulations are needed not just for clarity, but also on issues such as investor protection, who can create a token and licensing of exchanges.”

Code of conduct

Meanwhile, the Blockchain and Crypto Assets Council, which is part of the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), has decided to set up a board to oversee the implementation of a self-regulatory code of conduct by its member crypto exchanges to comply with AML/CFT and other laws.

Veena Sivaramakrishnan, Partner, Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co, also pointed out that quite a few countries have legalised cryptocurrencies, but in Indiathe government has been negative about it.

“With the RBI notification, it seems that there is some change in stance…But there is still no legality to cryptocurrencies and there is a regulatory vacuum. So, there is need for regulation. The expectation is that the new cryptocurrency Bill will help the sector as it will not completely ban private cryptocurrencies but regulate them,” she said.

But despite the strong adoption of cryptocurrencies and robust investor interest, experts point out that its speculative nature and volatility in prices cannot be wished away.

Another key concern that has become a topic of debate is the energy consumption involved in mining cryptocurrencies and the carbon footprint of the entire ecosystem, pointed out a recent report by Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas. “As per an analysis undertaken by the Cambridge Centre for Alternate Finance, Bitcoin’s electricity consumption is at approximately 110 Terawatt hours per year, or 0.55 per cent of the global electricity production,” it said.

Digital currency

Many central banks, including the RBI, are now looking at the option of a Central Bank Digital Currency.

“The prospect of competition from cryptocurrencies has prodded central banks to design their own digital currencies, which will be backed/controlled by the central banks,” noted a recent Treasury report by HDFC Bank.

Citing global experience, the report pointed out that the Bahamas rolled out a CBDC in October 2020, while Sweden has completed a technical pilot and China is conducting real-world trials for its digital yuan in cities including Shenzhen and Suzhou.

“European officials want to launch a digital euro by 2025 while the UK government has launched a ‘Britcoin’ task force, and the US is carrying out research to test the credibility of CBDCs programme,” it noted.

In its report on Currency and Finance, 2020-21, the RBI had said that a “CBDC can be designed to monitor transactions, promote financial inclusion by direct fiscal transfer, pumping central bank ‘helicopter money’, even direct public consumption to a select basket of goods and services to increase aggregate demand and social welfare.”

“We think it is just a matter of time before Indian investors have legal access to crypto plays,” the HDFC Bank report noted.

With the booming crypto trade in the country and subsequent investments, as well as the potential of blockchain technology, there is widespread expectation that the Finance Ministry will do a re-think on the proposed cryptocurrency Bill that was to be tabled in Parliament. Instead of a full-fledged ban, experts are hopeful that the proposed legislation would call for regulation.

But until such a development takes place, the woes of crypto investors may not go away completely.

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BlackRock says it is ‘studying’ crypto but cites volatility, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW YORK: BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday it is studying cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to determine whether the asset class could offer countercyclical benefits.

In response to a shareholder asking whether the company would invest in bitcoin, Fink told its annual meeting: “The firm has monitored the evolution of crypto assets. We are studying what it means, the infrastructure, the regulatory landscape.”

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager running roughly $9 trillion, is a long-term investor, Fink said. And crypto currencies could potentially play a role in long-term investing as an asset class similar to gold.

For now, it is too early to determine whether cryptocurrencies are “just a speculative trading tool” he said. He also noted that broker dealers are the ones making the most money from the volatility of many cryptocurrencies and their wide bid-ask spreads.

Earlier in the meeting, BlackRock said all of its 16 director nominees were elected with a majority of shareholder votes cast. It also said that executive pay had been backed by 93% of shareholder votes.

A shareholder resolution to convert the company into a public benefit corporation – with the aim of putting all stakeholders on equal footing with shareholders – was rejected, receiving only 2.3% of the vote. The vote was in line with what similar proposals have received this year at other big U.S. companies and financial firms.



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Bitcoin volatility decline paves way for banks, JPMorgan says, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Vildana Hajric

The recent pullback in Bitcoin’s volatility is setting the stage for a trend that could encourage institutions to dive in, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“These tentative signs of Bitcoin volatility normalization are encouraging,” strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in report emailed Thursday. “In our opinion, a potential normalization of Bitcoin volatility from here would likely help to reinvigorate the institutional interest going forward.”

Three-month realized volatility for the cryptocurrency has fallen to 86% after rising above 90% in February, they wrote. The six-month measure appears to be stabilizing at around 73%. As volatility subsides, a greater number of institutions could warm to the crypto space, the strategists said.

The coin’s volatility has kept institutions away, something that’s been a key consideration for risk management — the higher the volatility of an asset, the higher the risk capital consumed by it, according to the strategists. None of the biggest U.S. banks right now provide direct access to Bitcoin and its counterparts.

Still, traditional Wall Street firms have been taking a greater interest in the coin, especially after it doubled this year on the heels of a 300% jump in 2020.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week it’s close to offering investment vehicles for Bitcoin and other digital assets to private wealth clients. Morgan Stanley plans to give rich clients access to three funds that will enable ownership of crypto and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is developing a platform for traditional and digital assets.

Some of the attention on Bitcoin over the past two quarters has come at the expense of gold, JPMorgan’s strategists said, citing $7 billion of inflows into Bitcoin funds and $20 billion of outflows from exchange-traded funds tracking the precious metal.

Bitcoin volatility decline paves way for banks, JPMorgan says
Meanwhile, an additional boost to future adoption by institutions could arise from recent changes in Bitcoin’s correlation structure relative to other, traditional assets, according to JPMorgan strategists. These correlations have shifted lower in recent months, “making Bitcoin a more attractive option for multi-asset portfolios for diversification point of view and less vulnerable to any further appreciation in the dollar,” they wrote.



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HDFC Bank Vs ICICI Bank…who is speeding up?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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HDFC Bank suffered at least the fourth outage on Tuesday in the last three years as customers experienced downtime on their internet and mobile banking with services not accessible to them for several hours.

This led to an almost 4% drop in the bank’s shares in afternoon trade on Wednesday in a market, which saw across the board sell-off due to Covid worries. At the same time, the drop in ICICI Bank was just 2%.

While it has a lot of catching up to do, ICICI Bank is fast narrowing the gap with HDFC Bank and larger peers.

Why is ICICI Bank surging

Experts said the worst is behind ICICI Bank. It has gone through a period of tremendous amounts of credit cost related issues and write-offs taking place. Secondly, it is focusing more to be a retail bank which is contributing to growth. On top of it, ICICI was trading at a substantial discount in terms of its valuation to its larger peers. The discount is also narrowing down and has contributed to this outperformance.

ICICI Bank’s performance has now become comparable with HDFC Bank’s (industry best) and as comfort on asset quality/ credit-cost improves, this should translate into stable growth in net profits as well, experts said.

It has improved the velocity (pace and direction) of operating profit over the past two years reflecting improved topline and cost efficiencies. An improvement in velocity of ICICI Bank’s operating profit growth & steady credit cost will bring down volatility in earnings, which has been a key reason for a 55% discount in valuation versus HDFC Bank. Lower volatility can reduce Beta, which can bridge the valuation gap by half. The rest reflects the gap in growth & ROE – this can be partly bridged with improved growth in clients/ CASA. Brokerage Jefferies has raised its price target to Rs 780 and hold it among its top picks in the sector.

ICICI Bank versus HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank trades at 55% discount to HDFC Bank in terms of valuations – ICICI Bank at 1.9x FY22 adjusted PB and HDFC Bank at 3.4x. This reflects a combination of HDFC Bank’s better growth, ROE and lower Beta. With a lower volatility in earnings, HDFC Bank’s Beta is at 1 whereas ICICI’s is around 1.2-1.3. Brokerage Jefferies said that consistency in earnings growth/ asset quality will help ICICI Bank bring down Beta closer to 1. This can lift-up the theoretical PB from 1.9x now to 2.5x – closing the gap with HDFC Bank by 30%.

CASA deposits

ICICI Bank has seen steady growth in CASA deposits. During Q3, ICICI Banks saw average CASA growth of 19% YoY whereas HDFC Bank saw 30% YoY growth.

Jefferies sees an improvement in earnings and profitability from FY22 as credit costs stabilise alongside steady growth in topline. It has raised its price target on the bank to Rs 780 (from Rs 700) and target multiple to 2.4x Mar-23E adjusted PB.

At a valuation of Rs 1.7-1.8 lakh crore, ICICI Bank has a big branch network and stability and clean up that has been brought about in the business in the last three years under the new leadership, while HDFC has a market cap of close to about Rs 8 lakh crore.



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