Rupee to gain strength on likely return of FIIs, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai, The expected return of foreign capital into India’s key indices will strengthen the Indian rupee further during the upcoming week.

Accordingly, the rupee is likely to touch the 74 to a USD mark during this period.

The FIIs have been on a selling spree in India’s equity market, however, the rate of off-load has significantly come down during the last few sessions.

On last Thursday, during the hour-long ‘Muhurat Trade Session’, FIIs sold just Rs 328.11 crore worth of stocks on the BSE, NSE and MSEI in the capital market segment.

“Rupee closed strong in this short trade week at 74.50 to a USD on back of lower crude and IPO inflows. Also on the back of IMF’s suggestion of lower interventions to India’s Central bank,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.

“The US yields also softened a bit after touching 1.70 levels paving way for a rally in risk assets. Rupee is expected to test 74 levels this week and the Nifty is likely to gain further strength.”

According to Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities: “This week rupee behaved exactly as expected and appreciated amid heavy FPI flows from ongoing IPOs. Better PMI numbers of manufacturing and service activities indicating economic conditions are improving.”

“We now expect the Rupee to consolidate its recent gains and also factor in the important announcement of tapering from the US FOMC this week. We continue to remain rupee bulls, and we expect it to appreciate towards the 73.5-mark over the course of the next few weeks.”

On the other hand, Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said: “Domestic factors continue to be in favour of the rupee as a number of IPOs are attracting fund flows and thereby supporting the currency. Inflation and industrial production too will be in focus on the domestic front.”

“Rise in inflation is likely to trigger volatility for the currency as well as 10-year yields. We expect the momentum for the rupee would continue to remain positive and it could quote in the range of 74.20 and 75.20.”

In addition, the currency desk of Emkay Global Financial Services: “This week was a short week with USDINR spot witnessing a downtrend on IPO subscriptions.”

“But we can brace for a heightened volatility next week after the FOMC, BOE monetary policy decisions, OPEC meeting and US NFP data.”



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Sri Lanka seeks USD 500-million loan from India for fuel purchases amid forex crisis, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Colombo, The Sri Lankan government on Saturday said it is continuing efforts to secure a USD 500 million loan from India to ensure fuel supplies amid a severe foreign exchange crisis in the island nation. “The proposal has been sent to the Treasury for approval and would be submitted to the Cabinet thereafter,” said Energy Minister Udaya Gammanpila.

He said the Cabinet had already sanctioned USD 3.6-billion loan from Oman for fuel purchases.

Gammanpila indicated that continuous fuel supplies can only be guaranteed till January next year as the island was facing a foreign exchange crisis and higher global prices.

Long queues were seen at fuel pumps since Thursday due to speculation that retail prices would be hiked by the state fuel corporation.

Lanka IOC (LIOC), the subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation in Sri Lanka, had hiked the retail prices of both petrol and diesel by Rs 5 per litre. The new prices were effective from Thursday midnight in the wake of the rising global oil prices.

State-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation has asked the government to allow a price hike in view of its losses.

Gammanpila ruled out a price revision for the time being. He also blamed the opposition for spreading rumours of an impending fuel shortage in the country.

The price hike in the global oil prices has forced Sri Lanka to spend more on oil imports this year. The country’s oil bill has jumped 41.5 per cent to USD 2 billion in the first seven months of this year compared to last year.

Sri Lanka is facing a severe foreign exchange crisis after the pandemic hit the nation’s earnings from tourism and remittances, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa had said last month.

The country’s gross domestic product contracted by a record 3.6 per cent in 2020 and its foreign exchange reserves plunged by half in one year to just USD 2.8 billion in July.

This has led to a 9 per cent depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the dollar over the last year making imports more expensive.



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RBI remains net purchaser of US dollar in July; buys USD 7.205 bn, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continued to remain net buyer of the US dollar in July 2021, after it net purchased USD 7.205 billion from the spot market, according to the latest data from the RBI. In the reporting month, the central bank purchased USD 16.16 billion while sold USD 8.955 billion in the spot market, the monthly RBI bulletin for September 2021, released on Thursday, showed.

In June 2021, the RBI net purchased USD 18.633 billion. It had bought USD 21.923 billion and sold USD 3.29 billion during the month.

In July last year, the central bank had net bought USD 15.973 billion.

During 2020-21, the RBI had net purchased USD 68.315 billion from the spot market. It had bought USD 162.479 billion from the spot market and sold USD 94.164 billion during the fiscal 2020-21, the data showed.

In the forward dollar market, the outstanding net purchase at the end of July 2021 was USD 49.01 billion, compared with a net purchase of USD 49.573 billion in June 2021, the data showed. PTI HV HRS hrs



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Bitcoin in bank account? How banks can partner crypto firms, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Can’t beat them, join them.

After stonewalling cryptocurrencies and firms, banks are now coming around to the cryptocurrencies.

Indian bankers, which are not ready to touch crypto even with a barge pole following the regulator’s reluctance over cryptos, can parse the American Bankers’ Association’s (ABA) report on how lenders can partner from the new-age currency.

The ABA report

The American Bankers’ Association (ABA) has issued a new report that suggests banks consider partnerships with crypto firms based on the increased profitability of the sector and client interest. The ABA further suggests crypto use cases for banks with revenue models and regulatory issues for each use case.

“Cryptocurrency markets are rapidly evolving, and there is currently a diverse and complex ecosystem of companies offering access to digital asset products. The digital and programmable nature of these products means they can be used to facilitate many kinds of financial activities that increasingly mirror the products and services offered by traditional financial institutions, ” it said.

The use case for banks

n payments the blockchain-powered payment networks have the potential to allow for faster and more efficient payments, especially in cross-border transactions.

In lending blockchain technology can allow for cheaper, more secure, and more efficient lending processes while in settlements, distributed ledgers can provide cheaper and faster transactions between financial institutions.

Custody/Wallets provides independent/secure storage for users to hold and invest in crypto assets, while KYC/AML helps banks track the flow of funds and identify the parties involved in digital asset transactions

Digital identity distributed ledgers can provide the necessary record of information needed for authentication and verification purposes while given the proposed reporting structure for crypto transactions, the distributed ledger transactions can be easily found and reported in an efficient and timely manner.

Banks can offer business banking services to crypto companies such as corporate accounts, USD/fiat custodial accounts.

The customer can lend his or her crypto for interest and a bank could earn a fee or percentage of the crypto earned.

Banks could also charge fees for these services similar to a debit or credit card transaction and can provide crypto lending to borrowers for a fee.

Banks can look into revenue models that include charging transaction fees, listing charges for adding crypto to a platform, and deposit fees.

They can look at revenue from collecting the spread on transactions for crypto assets that are classified as securities.

The asset management use case for banks would enable a fee for service on a crypto portfolio.

In India, this will need the regulatory haze to fade first.



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RBI asks banks to shift from scam-tainted LIBOR to other rate benchmarks, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank of India has asked banks and financial institutions to use any widely accepted alternative reference rate (AAR) instead of LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates) as the reference rate for entering into new financial contracts.

The Reserve Bank‘s directive follows a decision of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), UK which on March 5, 2021, had announced that all LIBOR settings would either cease to be provided by any administrator or would no longer be representative.

The UK directive to phase out LIBOR came after a rate fixing scandal involving major global banks.

The RBI directive

In order to deal with the emerging situation, the RBI has asked banks and financial institutions to “cease entering into new financial contracts that reference LIBOR as a benchmark and instead use any widely accepted alternative reference rate (ARR), as soon as practicable and in any case by December 31, 2021.” The financial institutions, it suggested, should incorporate robust fallback clauses in all financial contracts that reference LIBOR and the maturity of which is after the announced cessation date of the LIBOR settings.

The RBI has also advised the financial institutions to cease using the Mumbai Interbank Forward Outright Rate (MIFOR), a benchmark which references the LIBOR, latest by December 31, 2021.

Board approved plan

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had in August 2020 asked banks to frame a board approved plan, outlining an assessment of exposures linked to LIBOR and steps to be taken to address risks arising from the cessation of LIBOR, including preparation for the adoption of the ARR.

While certain US dollar LIBOR settings will continue to be published till June 30, 2023, the extension of the timeline for cessation is primarily aimed at ensuring roll-off of USD LIBOR-linked legacy contracts, and not to encourage continued reliance on LIBOR.

“It is, therefore, expected that contracts referencing LIBOR may generally be undertaken after December 31, 2021, only for the purpose of managing risks arising out of LIBOR contracts (e.g. hedging contracts, novation, market-making in support of client activity, etc.), contracted on or before December 31, 2021,” the RBI said.

It has also asked banks and financial institutions to incorporate robust fallback clauses, preferably well before the respective cessation dates, in all financial contracts that reference LIBOR and the maturity of which is after the announced cessation date of the respective LIBOR settings.

The central bank also said it will continue to monitor the evolving global and domestic situation with regard to the transition away from LIBOR and proactively take steps to mitigate associated risks in order to ensure a smooth transition.

LIBOR scandal

The LIBOR Scandal was a highly-publicised scheme in which bankers at several major financial institutions colluded with each other to manipulate the LIBOR. The scandal sowed distrust in the financial industry and led to a wave of fines, lawsuits, and regulatory actions. Although the scandal came to light in 2012, there is evidence suggesting that the collusion in question had been ongoing since as early as 2003.

Many leading financial institutions were implicated in the scandal, including Deutsche Bank (DB), Barclays (BCS), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). As a result of the rate fixing scandal, questions around LIBOR’s validity as a credible benchmark rate have arisen and it is now being phased out. According to the Federal Reserve and regulators in the U.K., LIBOR will be phased out by June 30, 2023, and will be replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR).



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RBI asks banks to prepare for transition from LIBOR, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued an advisory asking banks to prepare for the transition out of London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

In August last year, the RBI requested banks to frame a Board approved plan, outlining an assessment of exposures linked to LIBOR and the steps to be taken to address risks arising from the cessation of LIBOR, including preparation for the adoption of the Alternative Reference Rates (ARR).

“Banks and financial institutions are encouraged to cease, and also encourage their customers to cease, entering into new financial contracts that reference LIBOR as a benchmark and instead use any widely accepted ARR (Alternative Reference Rates), as soon as practicable and in any case by December 31, 2021,” an RBI circular said on Thursday.

The directive comes with the objective of orderly, safe, and sound LIBOR transition and considering customer protection, reputational and litigation risks involved, banks or financial institutions.

While certain US dollar LIBOR settings will continue to be published till June 30, 2023, the extension of the timeline for cessation is primarily aimed at ensuring roll-off of USD LIBOR-linked legacy contracts, and not to encourage continued reliance on LIBOR.

“It is, therefore, expected that contracts referencing LIBOR may generally be undertaken after December 31, 2021, only for the purpose of managing risks arising out of LIBOR contracts (e.g. hedging contracts, novation, market-making in support of client activity, etc.), contracted on or before December 31, 2021,” it said.



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RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The country’s foreign exchange reserves surged to $576.98 billion as on March 31, 2021 from $544.69 billion at September-end last year, an RBI report said.

Foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, increased to $536.693 billion as at March-end 2021 from $502.162 billion, the report noted.

On balance of payments basis (excluding valuation changes), foreign exchange reserves increased by $83.9 billion during April-December 2020 as compared with $40.7 billion in the year-ago period, it said.

Foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms (including valuation changes) increased by $108 billion during April-December 2020 as against $47 billion in the corresponding period of 2019-20.

At the end of December 2020, the foreign exchange reserves cover of imports increased to 18.6 months from 17.1 months at September-end 2020, RBI said in its report on management of foreign exchange reserves — October 2020-March 2021, released on Wednesday.

The net forward asset (receivable) of the Reserve Bank in the domestic foreign exchange market stood at $68.2 billion as at March-end 2021.

As on March 31, 2021, the Reserve Bank held 695.31 metric tonnes of gold.

“While 403.01 metric tonnes of gold is held overseas in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), 292.30 tonnes of gold is held domestically,” the report said.

In value terms (USD), the share of gold in the total foreign exchange reserves decreased from about 6.69 per cent as at September-end 2020 to about 5.87 per cent as on March 31, 2021. Gold reserves stood at $33.88 billion at end-March 2021 as against $36.429 billion by September 2020, the report said.



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PSU banks keep vigil over Cairn Energy raid on its overseas accounts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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With UK’s Cairn Energy Plc looking to seize Indian assets to recover USD 1.2 billion it was awarded by an international arbitration tribunal, the Indian government has dug in heels and put banks on vigil for any such action.

Cairn Energy has said it taking necessary actions to access the USD 1.7 billion it was awarded by an international arbitration tribunal after overturning a retroactive tax demand slapped by the Indian government.

The Department of Financial Services has asked public sector banks to appoint a nodal officer amid increasing concerns that overseas assets or deposits of these lenders could be attached.

The department wrote a letter to public sector bank chiefs suggesting they immediately inform Sanjay Kumar, director – banking operations, if they receive ‘any intimation/notice/letter’ from Cairn Energy Plc and its subsidiary Cairn UK Holdings.

“Banks are advised to appoint a nodal officer in the case for any future correspondence, and share the name, designation and contact details of the official with us,” Jnanatosh Roy, under secretary, department of nancial services, nance ministry, wrote in the letter.

Cairn Energy and the government are locked in a legal battle over an arbitration order that requires India to pay $1.2 billion.

Withdraw funds

Last week, the central government has asked public sector banks to withdraw funds from their foreign currency accounts abroad, as New Delhi fears Cairn Energy may try to seize the cash after an arbitration ruling in a tax dispute.

A guidance was sent to state-run banks to withdraw funds from their nostro accounts.

A nostro account refers to an account a bank holds overseas at another bank in the currency of that jurisdiction. Such accounts are used for international trade and to settle other foreign exchange transactions.

While the Indian government has filed an appeal, the London-listed firm has started identifying Indian assets overseas, including bank accounts, that could be seized in the absence of a settlement, which Cairn says it is still pursuing.

The company has registered its claim against India in courts in the United States, Britain, France, the Netherlands, Singapore and Quebec, moves that could make it easier to seize assets and enforce the arbitration award.

The government was concerned courts abroad could order funds in their jurisdiction be remitted to Cairn.

Cairn said in February it was discussing several proposals with the government to find a solution.

India’s stand

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has earlier said that an international arbitration ruling on India’s sovereign right to taxation sets the wrong precedent, but said the government is looking at how best it can sort out the issue arising out of New Delhi being ordered to return $1.2 billion plus interest and cost to UK’s Cairn Energy Plc.

The government, which participated in an international arbitration brought by the Scottish firm against being taxed retrospectively, has appealed against The Hague based tribunal’s ruling asking the government to return the value of shares expropriated and liquidated, tax refunds withheld and dividend seized to recover a wrongly levied retroactive tax demand.

“We don’t believe in retrospective taxation,” she had said. “However, when issues are taken at arbitration… which question India’s sovereign right to taxation, we are worried that it sets a wrong precedent.” The Indian government argues that tax levied by a sovereign power should not be subject to private arbitration. Cairn had previously said the award is binding and it can enforce it by seizing overseas Indian assets.

Sitharaman, however, added that the government is looking to sort out the issue.

“I want to see how we can best sort this out,” she said, without elaborating.

The award

Cairn was awarded damages of more than $1.2 billion-plus interest and costs in December in a long-drawn-out tussle with the Indian government over its retrospective tax claims.

The Scottish firm invested in the oil and gas sector in India in 1994 and a decade later it made a huge oil discovery in Rajasthan. In 2006, it listed its Indian assets on the BSE.

Five years after that, the government passed retroactive tax law and billed Cairn Rs 10,247 crore plus interest and penalty for the reorganisation tied to the flotation.

The state then expropriated and liquidated Cairn’s remaining shares in the Indian entity, seized dividends and withheld tax refunds to recover a part of the demand.

Cairn challenged the move before an arbitration tribunal in The Hague, which in December awarded it $1.2 billion (over Rs 8,800 crore) plus costs and interest, which totals USD 1.725 billion (Rs 12,600 crore) as of December 2020.

The company has since then been in talks with the finance ministry to get the government to pay the award.



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Dollar firm amid US yield spike; bitcoin back below $60,000 following surge to record high, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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TOKYO: The US dollar held firm on Monday after bouncing off a one-week low last week, supported by a spike in benchmark Treasury yields to more-than-one-year highs as inflation fears continued to smoulder.

Bitcoin retreated to below $60,000 amid a Reuters report that India will push ahead on a proposal to ban cryptocurrencies. It had surged to a record $61,781.83 over the weekend.

The greenback traded near its highest since June against the Japanese yen, which tends to weaken when Treasury yields rise.

Market participants have grown wary in recent weeks that massive fiscal stimulus and pent-up consumer demand could lead to a jump in inflation as expanding vaccination campaigns bring an end to lockdowns.

U.S. producer prices had their largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, data showed on Friday, while the country’s economy is set to get a massive shot in the arm from President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

The outlook for the already brisk pace of U.S. vaccinations has also been boosted by Biden’s order for every state to make all adults eligible for vaccination by May 1.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, held around 91.645 early in Monday’s Asia session after climbing from near a one-week low of 91.364 at the end of last week.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at 1.6282% on Monday, close to Friday’s top of 1.6420%.

The dollar was largely flat at 109.04 yen on Monday, near the nine-month top of 109.235 reached last week.

The greenback has also been supported by a paring of bets for its decline, with speculators cutting net short positions to the lowest since mid-November in the week ended March 9, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The dollar index has gained 1.8% this year, tracking the rise in benchmark yields from below 1%. In 2020, the gauge fell nearly 7%.

Many analysts expect the dollar to resume that downtrend in due course.

“Higher bond yields alone are unlikely to sustain the upswing in USD,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts wrote in a research note, adding dollar declines were coming “soon”.

“The move higher in bond yields largely reflects the better economic outlook, which is ultimately a weight on the USD.”

The euro was mostly unchanged at $1.19535, consolidating just below $1.20 after sliding to a three-month trough of $1.18355 last week.

The Australian dollar – viewed widely as a liquid proxy for risk appetite – rose slightly to $0.7769, paring some of Friday’s 0.4% loss.

The Canadian dollar was largely flat, after earlier strengthening to C$1.2461 for the first time in three years. On Friday, a bigger-than-expected domestic jobs gain supported the view that the Bank of Canada would reduce quantitative easing purchases next month.

Bitcoin changed hands at around $59,940 after Reuters cited a senior government official as saying India will propose a law banning cryptocurrencies and fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets.

It would be one of the world’s strictest policies against the red-hot digital assets, and comes just as bitcoin and its rivals have been gaining credibility amid a wave of endorsements from big investors such as BlackRock Inc and corporate leaders including Tesla Inc’s Elon Musk and Twitter Inc‘s Jack Dorsey.

Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year, after more than quadrupling in 2020.



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