FPIs pull out Rs 19,000 cr from banking, financial stocks in H1; stay cautious in H2, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Amid the euphoria in the stock markets, the Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out close to Rs 19,000 crore from the banking and financial sectors in the first six months of the current fiscal.

On the other hand, they have raised their exposure on stocks in the defensive sectors such as consumer goods, IT, pharma and telecom.

According to sector-wise FPI flow data compiled from depositories, FPIs pulled out Rs 18,700 crore from the financial services sector between April and September. Of the total outflows, Rs 13,872 crore went from the banking sector while Rs 4,827 crore was pulled out from ‘other financial services’, which covers financial institutions, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs).

Nifty Bank lagging far behind vis-a-vis Nifty 50 return on a YTD basis, while the leaders are Nifty Metals, Nifty Realty and Nifty IT.

Banking sector

Within the banking sector, the equity segment witnessed an outflow of Rs 12,964 crore during the April-September period while Rs 1,014 crore went out of the debt segment during H1. On the other hand, the other financial services category witnessed an inflow of Rs 1,159 crore in equities and outflow of Rs 5,797 crore from debt in the first six months of the current fiscal.

“A stand out feature of FPI flows in recent weeks is the outflows from banking and inflows into IT. Even though IT is highly valued, this segment is attracting increasing flows since earnings visibility is high in the segment while banking is struggling with poor credit growth and rising asset quality concerns, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.

Defensive sectors

FPIs have been investing in defensive sectors due to rising volatility with the ‘household & personal products’ sector witnessed the highest FPI inflows in the last six months at Rs 6,725 crore followed by consumer durables ( Rs 6,580 crore), retailing (Rs 6,340 crore), telecom (Rs 5,773 crore) and insurance ( Rs 2,881 crore).

Though the economy has recovered in the second half, the market participants are having a cautious outlook as there has been no big jump in loan growth and concerns on NPAs remain.

Going forward, volatility in the global markets as well as global slowdown may impact foreign flows moving into Indian shores.

Also, any direction by US Fed towards tapering of the stimulus measures would make FPI flows into emerging markets volatile and at the same time it would be crucial in dictating the direction of foreign flows into Indian equities.



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Know how banks, financials performed this week, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The indices were volatile this week, in line with its global peers, while the broader market indices continued to outperform. The BSE Sensex breached its 60,000-mark, while the Nifty extended its winning run to five weeks in a row on Wednesday, posting the longest weekly gaining streak since 20 December 2020.

However, overall, the indices were muted this week, with experts suggesting indices may see further correction on concerns over global economic recovery and US inflation.

Stock specific moves, cues from Asian markets, US debt ceiling crisis and uptick in bond yield, strong vaccination numbers were key driving factors this week.

Monday Closing bell: Benchmark indices end flat with positive bias, Nifty Bank up nearly 1%

The BSE Sensex pared 334 points from the day’s high to end 29 points higher at 60,078, while the NSE Nifty50 closed at 17,855. During the day, the Sensex logged a fresh record high of 60,412.

The broader market indices underperformed the benchmark Sensex, as the BSE Midcap closed flat and BSE Smallcap down 0.13%.

The Nifty PSU Bank ended flat with positive bias gaining 0.48%, the Nifty Bank ended 0.90% higher at 38,171, and the Nifty Financial Services ended 0.41% higher at 18,706. SBI and HDFC Bank were among top gainers, while Bajaj Finserv was the top laggard, losing more than 2%.

Tuesday Closing bell: Indices bleed, financials highly underperform

After crashing nearly 1,000 points, Sensex recovered from its day’s low to finally close at 59,668, down 0.68%. The Nifty, meanwhile, tumbled 0.60% to end at 17,749.

The broader market also declined, in tandem with the benchmarks. The BSE Midcap index lost 0.71% and the BSE Smallcap 0.62%.

After a volatile session, Nifty PSU Bank gained 1.24% closing at 2,398. Bank Nifty ended in the red, losing 0.59% to end at 37,945, while Nifty Financial Services ended 0.92% lower at 18,534. Kotak Mahindra Bank was among the top gainers, while Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank and Induslnd Bank were top laggards.

Weekly Market wrap up: Know how banks, financials performed this week

Wednesday Closing bell : Indices volatile for second day; PSU Banks gain over 2.5%, financials fall

Indices remained volatile for the second day in a row on Wednesday, ending with losses. S&P BSE Sensex recovered from intraday lows and closed 0.43% lower at 59,4113. NSE Nifty 50 turned positive during the day but failed to hold gains and closed 0.21% lower at 17,711.

Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, closing with gains.

Nifty PSU Banks finished the day with 2.72% gains, while Nifty Bank slipped 0.53% ending at 37,743. Nifty Financial Services closed 0.88% lower at 18,371. HDFC was among the worst-performing Sensex constituents, falling 2.15%, followed by Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank.

Thursday Closing bell: Indices witness 3-day losing streak, both down 0.5%

Domestic headline indices ended with losses for the third consecutive session, with the Sensex witnessing a tug of war between gains and losses for most of the day to end 0.48% lower at 59,126. The Nifty50 dropped 0.53% to close at 17,618.

Nifty PSU Bank Index maintained its winning streak, closing with 0.80% gains. Nifty Bank, however, fell below the 37,500-mark, down 0.84% to close at 37,425, while Nifty Financial Services closed 0.37% lower at 18,303.

Bajaj Finserv was the top Sensex gainer, jumping 2.19%, followed by Bajaj Finance. Axis Bank, SBI and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the top drags.

Friday Closing Bell: Sensex, Nifty witness losses for fourth day, both down 0.5%

Indices settled in the red for the fourth straight day on Friday, with Sensex closing 0.6% lower at 58,766, and the Nifty50 falling 0.5% to close at 17,532.

Nifty PSU Bank index continued its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, closing 1% higher. Nifty Bank, however, fell more than half a percent to close at 37,225, while Nifty Financial Services closed 0.91% lower at 18,137.

Bajaj Finserv fell more than 3%, and Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank and Induslnd Bank were among top laggards. Muthoot Finance gained over 5%, and Au Small Finance Bank, Bandhan Bank, PNB were among top gainers.

Key Industry takeaways

Icra revises up FY22 GDP growth forecast to 9%

Ratings agency Icra on Monday revised up its 2021-22 real GDP growth estimate for India to 9 percent from the earlier 8.5 percent. A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. Icra on Monday said it expects the second half of the fiscal year to have brighter prospects.

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO fully subscribed on Day 2

Weekly Market wrap up: Know how banks, financials performed this week

The initial public offer of Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited was fully subscribed on the second day on Thursday. The Rs 2,768.25crore initial share sale received bids for 2,99,46,460 shares against 2,77,99,200 shares on offer, translating into 1.08 times subscription, according to an update on the NSE.

The qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) category was subscribed 6 per cent, non-institutional investors 40 per cent and retail individual investors (RIIs) two times. The initial public offer is of 3,88,80,000 equity shares.

RBI extends MSF facility for banks until March next year

Weekly Market wrap up: Know how banks, financials performed this week

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on September 28 said it has extended the marginal standing facility (MSF) relaxation for banks until March 31. Earlier, this facility was given till September 30.

Under MSF facility, banks are allowed to avail of funds by dipping into the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by up to an additional one percent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL), i.e., cumulatively up to 3 percent of NDTL.

“With a view to providing comfort to banks on their liquidity requirements as also to enable them to continue to meet LCR requirements, it has been decided to continue with the MSF relaxation for a further period of six months, i.e., up to March 31, 2021,” the RBI said.

US Fed’s tapering inclination may impact India’s FPI inflows, says CARE Ratings

Weekly Market wrap up: Know how banks, financials performed this week

The US Federal Reserve’s indication of tapering asset purchases is likely to impact the flow of funds into Indian markets, but may not be immediate, CARE Ratings said in a report.

The tapering is likely to affect India’s foreign portfolio inflows. Earlier when the Fed had announced tapering in 2013, FPI inflows to India had shrunk in the 2015-18 period.

RBI lifts PCA curbs on Indian Overseas Bank

Weekly Market wrap up: Know how banks, financials performed this week

The Reserve Bank of India on 29, September lifted Prompt Corrective Action restrictions from the Indian Overseas Bank, the central bank said in a release.

The decision came after the bank reported its earnings for the year ended March 31, 2021, and the RBI observed that IOB was not in breach of the PCA parameters. IOB has also provided a written commitment that it would comply with the norms of Minimum Regulatory Capital, Net NPA and Leverage ratio on an ongoing basis



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Analysts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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With no major domestic macroeconomic data announcement this week, equity markets would keenly track the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends to decide its further movement, analysts said. Equity benchmarks surged to their fresh lifetime peaks on Friday.

Analysts said positive economic data and government reforms in telecom, banking and automobile sectors helped in boosting market sentiments.

“This week is going to be critical for the Indian market after a recent outperformance because there is some weakness in global markets where the outcome of FOMC’s meeting, which is scheduled for September 21-22, will be a critical factor.

Other than the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan will also come out with its monetary policy on September 22, said Santosh Meena, head (research) at Swastika Investmart Ltd.

The movement of the dollar index and US bond yield will play a key role in the behaviour of emerging markets like India, Meena added.

“We are in a roaring bull market and I believe it may continue for the next 2-3 years but after a long time, I am sounding a little cautious as there are some signs which indicate that a short-term correction is around the corner,” Meena said.

During the last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 710 points or 1.21 per cent. Market benchmark Sensex scaled the 59,000-mark for the first time on Thursday.

“Nervousness would be seen in the market this week ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting,” said Siddhartha Khemka, head (retail research) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Shrikant Chouhan, head (equity research-retail) at Kotak Securities Ltd, said the Federal Reserve will kick off a two-day meeting on September 21, and the global markets will watch for an update on their bond-buying programme.

According to a note by Samco Research, “Investors across the world will be eyeing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting for more clarity on the outlook for both tapering as well as interest rate timelines.”

Markets would also track foreign institutional investors movement, rupee-dollar trend and Brent crude.

Vinod Nair, head (research) at Geojit Financial Services, said that this week, the global focus will be on the policy meetings of a few central banks including the Fed.



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Benchmark G-Secs can edge up from the current level

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The benchmark government securities yield fell 10 basis points last week to close at 6.155 per cent on Friday and the momentum is expected to continue this week, according to bond traders who are waiting keenly for the consumer price index (CPI) inflation to be released mid-September.

The rally in the G-Secs market came on the back of a combination of factors like the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Summit, high domestic liquidity and absence of key triggers in the market.

Period of apprehension

Bond traders, however, had a period of apprehension post the monetary policy announcement earlier this month.

Indications from the RBI that it is beginning to normalise its monetary policy by balancing liquidity at the shorter end through VRRR, along with one of the MPC members expressing reservation about the accomodative stance, made the market nervous. A primary dealer said there were concerns that more members would convert to hawks.

Fed stance soothes nerves

Bond yields continued to rise gradually and reached a peak of 6.255 per cent ahead of the Jackson Hole summit. However, Powell’s dovish stance calmed the nerves with the benchmark yield moving 10 basis points lower last week to close at 6.155 per cent.

Moreover, traders indicate that there was significant foreign portfolio investors’ (FPI) participation in the G-Secs market last week, especially in long tenor papers.

Vijay Sharma, Senior Executive Vice-President, PNB Gilts said the worst of the inflation seems to be over.

“The situation on the fiscal side is also not bad. It looks like the GST collections are also doing really well. These factors should augur well for bonds in the coming times unless we encounter some unexpected events. We can say that the level of 6.25 is now well protected. The momentum being very strong, the market can rally up to 6.1-6.12 per cent also unless some event pierces the rally,” Sharma said.

Siddharth Shah, head of treasury at STCI Primary Dealer said, at 6.25 per cent levels, the market found comfort in going long.

“Furthermore, the Fed Chair’s speech gave some amount of comfort. With the SDL supply seeing reduction, expectations of additional borrowing diminishing on account of upbeat GST collections, replacement demand for bonds on account of G-SAP amidst high market liquidity, conditions became ripe for a rally in bond yields. The benchmark yield is now close to 6.15 per cent and has the potential to go further down to 6.10-6.12 per cent,” Shah said.

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Rupee inches 4 paise higher to 73.25 against US dollar, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The Indian rupee appreciated 4 paise to 73.25 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 73.26 against the dollar, then inched higher to 73.25, up 4 paise over its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee had settled at 73.29 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.12 per cent at 92.54.

A strong rally in the domestic equity markets and a weak American currency in the overseas markets also supported the rupee sentiment.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors, the rupee which has appreciated nearly 100 paise since Friday, has been gaining on bountiful corporate inflows.

“RBI has been present intermittently and equity inflows have also been aiding the rupee after FED rhetoric on Friday,” he added.

The US Fed chief Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium was ‘dovish’ and expressed hope that the Fed will keep supporting the market with low interest rates, traders said.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell 0.48 per cent to USD 73.06 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, BSE Sensex was trading 87.09 points or 0.15 per cent higher at 56,976.85, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 21.55 points or 0.13 per cent to 16,952.60.

Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital market on Monday as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,202.81 crore, as per exchange data.



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RBI more convinced about transient inflation than others, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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With the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England hinting at normalisation, factoring in a more enduring nature of the ‘transient’ high inflation, RBI’s statement appears more dovish in comparison. If indeed the duration of high inflation is longer, RBI may need to re-think its GSAP purchases and start normalising the extant liquidity deluge, which has risen to 5.4 per cent of banks deposits.

Possibly, the enlargement of variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions is a precursor to such a scenario. The litmus test for how transient the inflation spike is lies in the resolution of global supply chain issues, particularly in developed economies, which explains a significant part of high prevailing inflation.

‘Inert’ growth weighs: RBI’s policy announcement on Friday, while keeping policy rates unchanged (reverse repo rate at 3.35 per cent and repo rate at 4 per cent), remains weighed by growth-revival imperatives, which are still ‘nascent and hesitant’ in the context of the impact of Covid Wave 2 as well as potential future waves. The demand condition is seen as inert despite normalisation from the impact of Wave 2 and improved 12-month-forward consumer sentiment.

While corporate performance has been good over the past 12 months, investment demand is anaemic. Pricing power in the manufacturing sector is feeble amid rising raw material costs and rising global commodity prices are a risk to growth outlook.

Pre-emptive action can kill the nascent revival: Given growth concerns, RBI has chosen to look through the recent spike in headline CPI inflation (reached 6.3 per cent in June 2021) as it is seen as transient, driven by supply sided factors, elevate domestic fuel taxes, elevated logistics costs, and high global commodity prices. Initiating pre-emptive normalisation of the ultra-easy monetary policy stance based in near-term spikes in inflation could “kill the nascent and hesitant” growth revival.

RBI scales up inflation projection even as growth to in 2HFY22: Overall, RBI has retained real GDP growth projection for FY22 at 9.5 per cent, based on its earlier scaled-down expectation and largely driven by a favourable base effect. The terminal quarter growth is being seen at 6.1 per cent, in Q4FY22, declining from 21.4 per cent in Q1.

The inflation trajectory has been scaled up to an average of 5.7 per cent for FY22, up 70bp from earlier. Importantly, the terminal quarter inflation is being seen higher at 5.9 per cent, accompanying growth deceleration, reflecting the impact of cost-led inflation on growth. The 4 per cent inflation target is now meant to be achieved over 2-3 years.

Easy financial condition the top priority: Thus, RBI’s stance to sustaining its monetary accommodation reflects its prioritisation of comfortable financial and liquidity conditions. Despite the higher projected inflation, central banks have allowed the banking system’s excess liquidity to remain extremely high. The LAF balance has increased further to Rs 8.5 lakh crore, or 5.4 per cent of bank deposits (Aug 4, 2021), up from the daily average of Rs 5.7 lakh crore in June, 2021. The GSAP purchase of G-sec by RBI is slated to continue (Rs 25,000 crore each on Aug 12 and 24, 2021). The only visible change is the progressive expansion of fortnightly auctions of the variable reverse repo rate (VRRR), rising to Rs 4 lakh crore by end-Sept 2021.

Liquidity support extended: Unlike earlier statements, no additional regulatory measures were announced this time. In light of the impact of Covid Wave 2, liquidity support under the TLTRO window has been extended until Dec 31, 2021. Likewise, the liquidity access potential for banks by dipping into SLR holdings of the G-Sec has also been extended. The resolution framework for stressed accounts that provides resolution based on identified financial performance until March 2022 has been extended to October, 2022. Thus, the liquidity support as an essential tool to ensure systemic financial stability is also maintained.

RBI more dovish than others: RBI’s “whatever it takes” stance crucially hinges on its assumption that the inflation spike will be transient, aligning the views of other central banks including the US Fed and UK’s BoE. Even so, the UK’s BoE has scaled up its inflation forecast by a huge 150bp to 4 per cent by end-2021, which implies that the transitory phase of high inflation will be longer than previously imagined.

Hence, “some modest tightening of monetary policy is likely to be necessary” over the next 2 years to keep inflation under control, as per the BoE. A similar view was expressed earlier by US Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Thus, with the US Fed and BoK indicating QE tapering, RBI’s stance of continuing with GSAP is more dovish. If indeed the duration of high inflation is longer, the RBI may need to think about reducing GSAP purchases and start normalising the liquidity deluge; the distortion created that it is creating in short-term money market rates is cannibalizing bank loan demand Possibly, the enlarged of VRRR auction of Rs 4 lakh crore is a precursor to lower GSAP.



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Analysts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday.

The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said.

The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI‘s tolerance band of 6 per cent.

The central bank has been keeping the status quo on policy and continuing with the accommodative stance to help revive GDP growth.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had on Thursday opined that the current conditions do not warrant withdrawal of the accommodative measures.

“The RBI has been tolerant of inflation and has stayed accommodative to support growth given the deep hit suffered by the economy. But it appears to be reaching the end of tether as inflation remains elevated,” rating agency Crisil said.

“If this pressure (on inflation) continues and systemically important central banks, especially the (US) Fed, begin normalising, the RBI will start to roll back accommodation. We expect the RBI to make a more definitive statement by this fiscal end, and raise rates by 0.25 per cent,” it added.

Its peer Acuite said it expects policy normalisation to begin in a gradual fashion with comfort on vaccination, clarity on fiscal stance, and global rates setting and called the increase in the quantum of variable reverse repo auctions as the first small step towards the same objective.

Next, the central bank can look at increasing the reverse repo rate by 0.40 per cent to narrow the difference between repo and reverse repo rate to 0.25 per cent by February 2022, it said, adding that the repo will be unchanged at 4 per cent.

In parallel, the vaccination drive is expected to lead to herd immunity and thereafter, the RBI will follow up with a 0.25 per cent rate hike in April 2022, it said.

Analysts at Japanese brokerage Nomura said last week’s review had signs of RBI policy pivoting towards normalization, pointing out to one of the members of the monetary policy committee also dissented against the “accommodative stance” and the increase in FY22 headline inflation target to 5.7 per cent.

“The August policy meeting already bore initial signs of a policy pivot via calibrated liquidity normalisation. We believe this will be followed by the phasing out of durable injectors of liquidity, a 0.40 per cent reverse repo rate hike (in December quarter) and 0.75 per cent of repo/reverse repo rate hikes in 2022,” it said.



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FPIs pull out net Rs 6,105 cr from Indian capital mkts so far this fiscal, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out a net Rs 6,105 crore from the Indian capital markets so far in the ongoing financial year amid the pandemic and resultant restrictions in many parts of the country. The equity benchmark BSE Sensex has jumped 3,077.69 points or 6.21 per cent during April-July this fiscal.

Reflecting an upbeat sentiment in the market, the benchmark had reached its all-time high of 53,290.81 on July 16, 2021. It closed at its lifetime high of 53,158.85 on July 15.

According to the depositories data, Rs 6,707 crore were withdrawn on a net basis from equities during the initial four months of this fiscal.

At the same time, a net sum of Rs 602 crore was invested in the debt segment.

This took the total net withdrawal to Rs 6,105 crore during the period under review.

The data showed that FPIs were net sellers in all the months barring June when they had invested Rs 13,269 crore.

The net outflow stood at Rs 9,435 crore in April, Rs 2,666 crore in May and Rs 7,273 in July.

“What is encouraging during the first four months is the fact that the number of new investor registrations in India is up 2.5 times year on year as per data released by the NSE,” said S Ranganathan, head of research at LKP Securities.

Market experts noted that the financial year started with a surge in COVID-19 cases and the consequent restrictions imposed by various states which dented investors’ sentiment.

June witnessed a gradual opening up of the localised lockdown and improved investor sentiments on the back of consistently falling coronavirus cases in the country, hopes of an early opening of the economy along with good quarterly results as per Himanshu Srivastava, associate director – manager research, Morningstar India.

“FPIs started to turn cautious towards Indian equity markets from mid of June and continued with the same stance through July. US Fed‘s hawkish statement that it might raise interest rates much earlier than assumed was the precursor for the change in their stance,” Srivastava added.

He further said that there are outflows but they are not exorbitantly high and this signifies that foreign investors are adopting a cautious stance towards Indian equities rather than turning negative on it.

Going forward, on the back of US Fed monetary policy which is keeping its benchmark policy rate unchanged, while indicating that they have begun talking about scaling back bond buying, and rising crude oil prices, FPI flows in the domestic market is expected to remain volatile, said Shrikant Chouhan, executive vice president, equity technical research at Kotak Securities.



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Rupee inches 7 paise higher to 74.35 against US dollar in early trade

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The Indian rupee gained 7 paise and touched 74.35 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, tracking positive domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading in a narrow range as investors are awaiting cues from the US Fed’s policy decision due on Wednesday.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 74.36 against the dollar, then inched higher to 74.35, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee had settled at 74.42 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent down at 92.60, as traders and investors will look to cues from the Fed’s policy decision, due on Wednesday.

Asian currencies have started marginally stronger against the greenback this Tuesday morning and could lend support, Reliance Securities said in a research note.

Also read: Rupee drops by 2 paise to 74.42

On the domestic equity market front, BSE Sensex was trading 119.08 points or 0.23 per cent higher at 52,971.35, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 49.95 points or 0.32 per cent to 15,874.40.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,376.79 crore, as per exchange data.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 0.48 per cent to USD 74.86 per barrel.

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RBI report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) ratio of banks may rise to 9.8 per cent by March 2022, under a baseline scenario, from 7.48 per cent in March 2021, according to the Financial Stability Report (FSR) released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Under a severe stress scenario, GNPA of banks may increase to 11.22 per cent, the report released on Thursday showed.

“Macro stress tests indicate that the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio of banks may increase from 7.48 per cent in March 2021 to 9.80 per cent by March 2022 under the baseline scenario,” the report said.

It, however, added that banks have sufficient capital, both at the aggregate and individual level, even under stress.

The FSR released in January this year had said banks’ GNPAs may rise to 13.5 per cent by September 2021, under the baseline scenario, which would be the highest in over 22 years.

The latest report said within the bank groups, public sector banks’ (PSBs’) GNPA ratio of 9.54 per cent in March 2021 edging up to 12.52 per cent by March 2022 under the baseline scenario is an improvement over earlier expectations and indicative of pandemic proofing by regulatory support.

For private sector banks (PVBs) and foreign banks (FBs), the transition of the GNPA ratio from baseline to medium to severe stress is from 5.82 per cent to 6.04 per cent to 6.46 per cent, and from 4.90 per cent to 5.35 per cent to 5.97 per cent, respectively.

Under the baseline and the two stress scenarios, the system level CRAR (capital to risk assets ratio) holds up well, moderating by 30 basis points (bps) between March 2021 and March 2022 under the baseline scenario and by 130 bps and 256 bps, respectively, under the two stress scenarios.

All 46 banks would be able to maintain CRAR well above the regulatory minimum of 9 per cent as of March 2022 even in the worst-case scenario, it said.

The report said the common equity Tier I (CET-1) capital ratio of banks may decline from 12.78 per cent in March 2021 to 12.58 per cent in March 2022, under the baseline scenario.

It would further fall to 11.76 per cent and 10.73 per cent, respectively, under the medium and severe stress scenarios by March 2022.

The report said Covid-19 has increased the risks to financial stability, especially when the unprecedented measures taken to mitigate the pandemic’s destruction are normalised and rolled back.

“Central banks across the world are bracing up to deal with the expected deterioration in asset quality of banks in view of the impairment to loan servicing capacity among individuals and businesses,” the report said.

The initial assessment of major central banks is that while banks’ financial positions have been shored up, there has been no significant rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) and policy support packages helped in maintaining solvency and liquidity.

The economic recovery, however, remains fragmented and overcast with high uncertainty, it said.

The report also highlighted the stress test results of the pandemic by various central banks.

Bank of England (BoE’s) ‘Desktop’ stress test in the interim FSR (May 2020) had projected that under appropriately prudent assumptions, aggregate CET-1 capital ratio of banks would decrease from 14.8 per cent at end-2019 to 11 per cent by the second year of test scenario (2021) and banks would remain well above their minimum regulatory capital requirements.

As per the latest position, the CET-1 capital ratio increased to 15.8 per cent over the course of 2020, the report showed.

The report further said in its June 2020 stress test and additional analysis in the light of Covid-19, the US Fed found that banks generally had strong levels of capital, but considerable economic uncertainty remained.

It projected that under severely adverse scenario, the CET-1 ratio of large banks would decline from an average starting point of 12 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 10.3 per cent in first quarter of 2022.

However, CET-1 ratio for large banks increased to 13 per cent as at end-2020, as per the latest position of stress test of the US Federal Reserve.

Similarly, in its Covid-19 vulnerability analysis results (June 2020) for 86 banks comprising about 80 per cent of total assets in the Euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) estimated that banks’ aggregate CET-1 ratio would deplete by 1.9 percentage points to 12.6 per cent under the central scenario, and by 5.7 percentage points to 8.8 per cent under the severe scenario by end-2022.

As per the latest position, the CET-1 ratio of Euro area banks on aggregate improved to 15.4 per cent in 2020.

The FSR also conducted the stress tests on banks’ credit concentration — considering top individual borrowers according to their standard exposures.

The test showed that in the extreme scenario of the top three individual borrowers of the banks under consideration failing to repay, no bank will face a situation of fall in CRAR below the regulatory requirement of 9 per cent.

However, 37 banks would experience a decline of more than one percentage point in their CRARs.

Under the extreme scenario of the top three group borrowers in the standard category failing to repay, the worst impacted four banks would have CRARs in the range of 10 to 11 per cent and 39 banks would experience a decline in CRAR of more than one percentage point, the report said.

In the extreme scenario of the top three individual stressed borrowers of these banks failing to repay, a majority of the banks would experience a reduction of 10 to 20 bps only in their CRARs, the report said, adding this will be on account of low level of stressed assets in March 2021.

The report further said despite the pandemic conditions during 2020-21, the GNPA ratio for the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) sector declined with a more than commensurate fall in the net NPA ratio attesting to higher provisioning, and capital adequacy improved marginally.

The GNPAs of NBFCs stood at 6.4 per cent and net NPAs at 2.7 per cent as of March 2021.



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