Australia’s central bank weighs digital currency, remains unconvinced, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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SYDNEY, – The Reserve Bank of Australia, like some other major central banks, has stepped up research into running its own digital currency, but remains unconvinced of the merits, its payments chief said on Thursday.

The comments, made at a financial services conference, follow an Australian Senate report last month that called for laws to be changed in ways that were more amenable to digital currencies.

Most major economies are now considering whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC) – an internet-only cash equivalent that is different to cryptocurrency since it is not de-centralised – although none have done so yet, said Reserve Bank of Australia head of payments policy Tony Richards.

However, “given the possibility that the balance could shift towards a case for issuance of retail CBDCs, the Bank has been stepping up its CBDC research”, Richards said in a speech at the Australian Corporate Treasury Association.

Noting that the European Central Bank and Sweden appeared to be the most advanced of the major economies to consider a role for CBDCs, Richards said the U.S. Federal Reserve was more cautious.

“Reserve Bank (of Australia) staff have also not been convinced to date that a strong policy case has emerged in Australia for a CBDC,” he said.

“Australia’s existing electronic payments system already provides households and businesses with a wide range of safe, convenient and low-cost payment services.”

Amid the rush to internet-only money, which has been spurred along partly by the shift toward online living during the pandemic, Australia’s biggest bank also said this month that it was offering some cryptocurrency trading services via its smartphone app. (Reporting by Byron Kaye; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)



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Gold gleams as central banks hold off on interest rate hikes, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gold prices were poised for their best day in three weeks on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England indicated they were in no rush to raise interest rates.

Spot gold was up 1.6%, its most since Oct. 13, to $1,798.05 per ounce at 10:29 a.m. EDT (1429 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery jumped 1.9% to $1,797.00.

The Fed indicated that they are probably not going to mess with interest rates, and that is bullish for metals, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, on Wednesday signaled the central bank would stay patient – and wait for more job growth – before raising interest rates, while beginning to trim its massive bond-buying program this month.

Ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy has helped drive gold sharply higher since the financial crisis of the late 2000s, with low interest rates cutting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and inflation fears stoking demand for a hedge.

“The Bank of England leaving rates unchanged overnight shows central banks right now don’t have an appetite for higher rates,” Haberkorn said, adding that gold could by Friday go “north of $1,800 just based on sentiment and the technicals.”

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold on Thursday, dashing expectations for a hike that would have made it the first of the world’s big central banks to raise rates after the pandemic.

Independent analyst Ross Norman said strong physical demand for gold was supporting the market, as India‘s Diwali festival generally boosts sales of the precious metal.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 2.1% to $23.98 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.7% to $1,036.43 and palladium jumped 1.5% to $2,030.34.



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Gold inches lower on dollar uptick; focus on key central bank meetings, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, weighed down by an uptick in the dollar as investors eye upcoming key central bank meetings this week.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,805.96 per ounce by 0116 GMT. U.S. gold futures was flat at $1,806.60.

* On Monday, the metal rose nearly 1% to a high of $1,809.66, only about $4 shy of an over one-month peak scaled last week.

* The dollar rose 0.1% on Tuesday, recovering from a near one-month trough hit during the previous session. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. [USD/]

* Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were also a tad higher at 1.6431%, raising non-interest bearing gold’s opportunity cost. [US/]

* Market participants eye meetings from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. Neither of the central bank is likely to announce a change in policy, though the ECB might address how inflationary pressures could affect policy.

* The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are also set to meet next week.

* Bank of England interest rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro said she needed more time to judge how the end of the government’s job-saving furlough scheme was affecting the labour market, adding to signs that she sees no urgency to raise rates.

* Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, though reduced stimulus and interest rate hikes push government bond yields up, translating into a higher opportunity cost for holding bullion which pays no interest.

* Spot silver fell 0.1% to $24.53 per ounce. Platinum edged 0.1% down to $1,056.35 and palladium gained 0.2% to $2,055.16.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

1400 US Consumer Confidence Oct

1400 US New Home Sales-Units Sept

(Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)



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Indian shares end flat as private banks drag; media stocks surge, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Indian shares ended flat on Wednesday as major private bank stocks slipped and offset sharp gains in Coal India, while media firms soared on news of Zee Entertainment merging with a rival.

The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 index closed 0.09% lower at 17,546.65, while the S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.13% to 58,927.33.

Investors also awaited the results of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, where the central bank is expected to give cues on a possible tapering of its bond buying program.

An indication of tapering would likely impact the market and “suck out some liquidity”, said K.K. Mittal, an investment advisor with Venus India.

Private banks fell 0.7%, erasing gains from the previous session, with Housing Development Finance Corp shedding more than 1% to be among the biggest losers on the Nifty 50.

Media stocks posted their best day ever as Zee Entertainment surged 39% on its board approval for a merger with Sony Group Corp‘s Indian unit, a week after the Indian media giant’s top shareholders had asked for a management reshuffle.

Real estate stocks jumped 8.5%, with Godrej Properties adding 13.2% to lead the charge in the sector.

Analysts have said signs of improving sales on easing COVID-19 restrictions is helping sentiment, with a rise in large asset purchases expected during the upcoming festive season.

Auto stocks ended 1.3% higher, as analysts pointed to similar factors aiding gains in the sector.

Consumer stocks fell, with Nestle India dropping nearly 1.5% to be the top loser on the Nifty 50. On Tuesday, the company’s chairman told https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/fmcg/unsure-if-demand-will-stay-inflation-a-concern-for-2022-nestle-india-chairman-suresh-narayanan/articleshow/86386070.cms local media there were no sure signs that sustained consumption is here to stay.



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Biggest U.S. banks smash profit estimates as economy revives, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Michelle Price

WASHINGTON – The four largest U.S. consumer banks posted blockbuster second-quarter results this week, after pandemic loan losses failed to materialize and the U.S. economy began roaring back to life.

Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co posted a combined $33 billion in profits, buoyed by the release of $9 billion in reserves they had put aside last year to absorb feared pandemic losses.

That was beyond analyst estimates of about $24 billion combined, compared with $6 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Consumer spending has climbed, sometimes beyond pre-pandemic levels, while credit quality has improved and savings and investments have risen, the banks said.

Thanks to extraordinary government stimulus and loan repayment holidays, feared pandemic losses have not materialized. A national vaccination roll-out has allowed also Americans get back to work and to start spending again.

Sizzling capital markets activity has also helped the largest U.S. banks, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc reporting a $5.35 billion profit, more than double its adjusted earnings a year ago.

“The pace of the global recovery is exceeding earlier expectations and with it, consumer and corporate confidence is rising,” Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said.

That was reflected in a pick-up in consumer lending.

For example, JPMorgan said combined spending on its debit and credit cards rose 22% compared with the same quarter in 2019, when spending patterns were more normal.

Spending on Citi-branded credit cards in the United States jumped 40% from a year earlier, but with so many customers paying off balances its card loans fell 4%.

Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said the bank expects more customers to go back to their pre-pandemic pattern of carrying revolving balances as government stimulus programs wind down later this year.

Wells Fargo posted a 14% gain in credit-card revenue compared with the second quarter of 2020, due to higher point-of-sale volume. Revenue was up slightly on the first quarter, the bank said.

“What we’re seeing is people starting to spend and act more in a way that seems more like it was before the pandemic started and, certainly on the consumer side, spending is up quite a bit, even when you compare it to 2018,” Wells Fargo chief financial officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters.

While loan growth is still tepid, which is usually bad for bank profits, there were signs that demand is creeping back.

Excluding loans related to the U.S. government’s pandemic aid program, loan balances at Bank of America, for example, grew $5.1 billion from the first quarter.

“Deposit growth is strong, and loan levels have begun to grow,” Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement.

JPMorgan, the country’s largest lender, on Tuesday reported profits of $11.9 billion compared with $4.7 billion last year.

Citigroup’s second-quarter profit rose to $6.19 billion, up from $1.06 billion last year, while Bank of America’s profit jumped to $8.96 billion from $3.28 billion.

Wells Fargo posted a profit of $6 billion compared with a loss of $3.85 billion last year, which was largely related to special items.

While the results indicate good news for consumers and businesses, low interest rates, weak loan demand and a slowdown in trading will probably weigh on results going forward, analysts said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is staying the course, with an inflation target of 2% and no plans to tighten monetary policy by, for instance, raising interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks for a congressional appearance on Wednesday.

That suggests banks will have to deal with low rates for an extended period of time.

(Reporting by Michelle Price; additional reporting by Noor Zainab Hussain, David Henry and Matt Scuffham; Editing by Lauren Tara LaCapra and Nick Zieminski)



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The crypto revolution will not be public, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Tyler Cowen

A revolution is pending in finance, and the world is only beginning to realize the transformations it is likely to bring. Financial institutions will have to take a radically different approach to information technology just to stay in business.

Bullish Global, a crypto firm, is planning to go public this year, with an expected valuation of $9 billion. Circle Internet Financial Inc., the company behind stablecoin, is also planning to be publicly listed, as is cryptocurrency platform Bakkt Holdings. Financial markets are difficult to predict, but at this point, 12 years after the inauguration of Bitcoin, it is hard to argue that this is all a bubble.

To understand why, ask yourself a simple question. Why shouldn’t finance and payments be as easy as sending an email? Anyone who grew up on computer games and texting probably thinks that running a financial system should be equally frictionless and cheap, especially if there were a mature central bank digital currency. There’s no reason money couldn’t be transferred by a simple act of communication.

Due to the large amount of money at stake, there would need to be higher levels of security than with email. But some mix of bioscans, multi-factor authorization and hardware security (you need more than a password) ought to suffice. These safeguards shouldn’t cost very much once they are in place.

One vision is that governments and central banks will run these systems, making governments and central banks far more important in finance. For many institutions, private banks would not be needed to get access the payments system, and so the role of private banks would shrink. The central bank in turn would have more funds to deploy, and inevitably it would apply some amount of discretion to those funds.

If the role of government is to expand, and if private banks are to suffer, it would create significant issues of the sort that the U.S. political system is often not very good at resolving. The U.S. Federal Reserve has made it clear it won’t create a digital currency without approval from Congress, but Congress is notorious for being slow or even unable to act, especially on issues involving the role of the government in the economy.

And these squabbles are not purely partisan. Given the government’s record with technology — remember the botched rollout of the Obamacare website? — can we be so sure that a central bank digital currency would be hack-proof and well-functioning from the start?

In a remarkably honest yet radical speech last month about stablecoins, Fed Governor Randal Quarles argued that current payments systems already incorporate a great deal of information technology — and they are improving rapidly. The implication is that a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, is a solution in search of a problem.

Quarles also suggested that the Fed tolerate stablecoins, just as central banking has coexisted and indeed thrived with numerous other private-sector innovations. Stablecoins can serve as a private-sector experiment to see if individuals and institutions truly desire a radically different payments system, in this case based on crypto and blockchains. If they do, the system can evolve by having some but not all transactions shift toward stablecoin.

There need not be any “do or die” date of transition requiring a perfectly functioning CBDC. But insofar as those stablecoins can achieve the very simple methods of funds transfer outlined above, market participants will continue to use them more.

Quarles argued that with suitable but non-extraordinary regulation of stablecoin issuers, such a system could prove stable. He even seems to prefer the private-sector alternative: “It seems to me that there has been considerable private-sector innovation in the payments industry without a CBDC, and it is conceivable that a Fed CBDC, or even plans for one, might deter private-sector innovation by effectively ‘occupying the field.’”

In essence, Quarles is willing to tolerate a system in which privately issued dollar equivalents become a major means of consummating payments outside of the Fed’s traditional institutions. Presumably capital requirements would be used to ensure solvency.

For many onlookers, even hearing of innovation in finance raises worries about systemic risk. But perhaps the U.S. would do better by letting information technology advance than trying to shut it down. And if you are afraid of instability, are you really so keen to see foreign central bank digital currencies fill up this space?

If you are still skeptical, ask yourself two final questions. First, which has been more innovative on these issues: the private sector or the public sector? Second, how realistic are the prospects that Congress takes any effective action at all?

This is now a world in which radical monetary ideas are produced and consumed like potato chips. I say, pass the bag.



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Gold gains as U.S. jobs data fails to bolster early Fed tightening bets, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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-U.S nonfarm payrolls rise 850,000 in June.
-Gold faces technical resistance around $1,790/oz- analyst.

Gold rose on Friday, climbing further from a two-month trough hit earlier in the week, as the dollar weakened and investors weighed prospects for U.S. Federal Reserve tightening after a strong U.S. jobs report that nevertheless showed a slight uptick in the unemployment rate.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,784.21 per ounce by 1:42 pm EDT (1742 GMT), after jumping to $1,794.86, its highest level since June 18. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.4% at $1,783.30.

Data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by a bigger-than-expected 850,000 in June, although the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in the previous month.

U.S. Fed officials have suggested recently that the central bank should begin to taper its asset purchases this year.

However, Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago, said the data was unlikely to trigger a rush from the Fed to ease stimulus or begin interest rate hikes. He added that gold had also found some support as many analysts had expected a bigger upside surprise to the data.

Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after the report, buoying gold as lower yields reduce its opportunity cost.

Also on investors’ radar was the Delta coronavirus variant which has prompted some countries in Asia and Europe to walk back on reopening plans.

These concerns, and lower vaccination rates in some parts of the United States, could convince some investors the Fed will be cautious about hiking interest rates, supporting gold in the longer-term, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

But in the near-term, “gold is facing technical resistance at around $1,790 and will likely tread water until we see some weaker-than-expected economy data.”

Silver rose 1.4% to $26.39 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.5% to $1,087.41 and palladium was up 0.6% at $2,779.85.

(Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Edmund Blair, Kirsten Donovan)



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