Cryptos, far from the regulators’ glare

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The manner in which cryptocurrencies which began as innocuous playthings of geeks went on to become the most sought after asset class and a threat to traditional cross-border payment channels, while managing to stay beyond the reach of regulators, shows the challenges that digital innovation pose.

The original white paper on Bitcoin, put out by its founder, the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, described it as, “a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash (that) would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

Most regulators did not take it seriously then, since its usage appeared to be limited to a few rebels who wanted to express their displeasure against the traditional fiat currencies. But Bitcoin has cloned thousands of other cryptocurrencies, which are no longer innocent payment channels but have morphed into a highly speculative asset and conduits of illicit cross-border money transfers.

The experience with cryptocurrencies shows that fintech products and innovations need to be taken more seriously going ahead and quickly brought under the regulatory radar before they grow in to a many-headed monster. There are other similar digital innovations such as digital lending or algo trades that have grown surreptitiously in the shadows in a similar manner with the regulators struggling to frame rules them.

Digital lending entities

More than a decade ago, the usurious practices of microfinance companies charging exorbitant rates of interests, harassing and shaming borrowers had led to a spate of suicides making the RBI issue regulations to check the lenders in this space. The same sequence of events is now being repeated, but in digital space.

As the Covid-19 pandemic hit the livelihoods and small businesses, digital lending apps turned out to be a ready source of money to these small borrowers. While funds could be accessed for extremely short periods, ranging from 7 to 15 days, the rates of interest charged by the digital lenders were extremely high, ranging from 60 to 100 per cent, according to reports. These apps required the borrower to give them permission to access all the information on their smartphones under the garb of doing KYC checks. The problem started when the borrowers were unable to repay the loans. They were harassed, publicly shamed and even blackmailed leading to some borrowers even resorting to the extreme step of taking their lives.

The RBI had taken note of these malpractices and issued an advisory in December and had also opened a portal for registering complaints. It recently set up a working group to give recommendations on regulating these businesses.

The swiftness shown by the central bank in trying to bring digital lending entities under regulatory purview is laudable. It’s clear that there is demand for loans from such digital lenders and total clamp-down on this space is not a good idea. Weeding out the bad players and ensuring that the lending activities continue with sufficient protection to borrowers is the way forward.

But the point to note is the manner in which the miscreants were quick to find a regulatory gap and begin operations. This requires equal amount of agility from regulators as well.

Dealing with algo trading

Another instance of a digital innovation blind-siding regulators was seen in the proliferation of algorithmic or programmed trading in Indian stock exchanges. These trades that require little or no manual intervention, where computer programs shoot orders to the exchange servers at lightning speed, currently account for over 60 per cent of turnover in derivatives section and 50 per cent in cash segment of the NSE.

There was a lot of furore about these algo trading around 2012 when it was first revealed that programmed trading, especially from colocation sites located close to exchange servers, are ahead of the small investors in trade execution due to their proximity to the exchanges. Further, the high-frequency-trading programs and other rogue programs were gaming the market to stay ahead of other traditional traders.

But no one could explain how or when algo trading had started on Indian exchanges and how they had become so widespread by 2012. The market regulator was in a fix then, since banning algos would have resulted in depriving liquidity from market and making FPIs turn away. SEBI decided to embrace algos and regulate them by issuing guidelines to exchanges, intermediaries and investors about dealing with algos.

We had dealt with this logjam in https://www.thehindubusinessline. com/opinion/columns/lokeshwarri-sk/ learn-to-live-with-algo-trading/ article22995759.ece

Regulating cryptos will be tricky

With fintech adoption growing at a break-neck speed in the country with growing smart phone and data accessibility, it is clear that innovative products that fox regulators and at times border on the illegal will keep cropping up. Regulators need to be on their toes and increase the strength of their digital surveillance team which has the skills to understand these products.

But, while innovations like digital lending and algo trading can be regulated and streamlined by regulators, cryptocurrencies will be much more challenging. This is because — one, it is hard to categorise cryptocurrencies as either currency or asset. So determining the regulator for them is quite difficult. Two, the creation or mining of the cryptocurrencies takes place globally and hence cannot be controlled. While trading can be banned in India, it will continue in other global trading platforms which can be easily accessed by Indians. Three, the investors of these crypto assets are mostly not the investors of traditional asset classes.

Hence it may not be possible for issuing reactive regulations for these crypto assets and absorb them into the mainstream as done for other tech innovations. A global consensus on crypto mining and trading could be the way forward, with uniform rules and regulations framed for crypto trading platforms in all countries. While the contours of the Cryptocurrency Bill to be presented in Parliament is awaited, the last word has not yet been said on taming this beast.

The last two decades have seen rapid innovation in fintech with these digital entities seeping into spaces hitherto occupied by traditional banks, insurance companies, stock brokers, investment advisories, and so on. Some of these entities have tried pushing the boundary between the acceptable and unacceptable, ethical and unethical, legal and illegal and, in many instances, regulators have been caught sleeping at the wheel. Regulators will have to upskill and increase the manpower equipped to deal with fintech entities so that they are not caught off-guard, once too often.

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All that is dubious about crypto currencies

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It is quite timely that the government and regulators are looking closely at cryptocurrency. The interesting part is that it does not come under SCRA and hence SEBI is not involved. It does not involve financial institutions and hence RBI is out. It has not been declared illegal by the Courts and hence the government cannot do anything as of now. It is a unique fad because it is prevalent across the world and more importantly it trades without there being any underlying value.

Crypto is a creation of the imagination which is protected by technology and brought on to several platforms which enables trading. Anyone can start their own crypto, but multitude of people need to believe in it and start trading. Not surprisingly even though there are over 7,000 such currencies not more than 10 are actively traded and command value. Clearly lots of people have tried floating their imaginary currencies and have failed. It runs on belief and trust with no regulators to lay down the rules.

Two things stand out here which needs to be answered by regulators.

First, is whether it is being used as a mode of transaction. Currently there is no information if people are buying and selling property and paying partly in crypto currency. If such things are happening, then it is something the RBI should be concerned about, because we cannot have parallel currencies in the country. It is illegal to carry out transactions in foreign currency in India and while barter exists in some pockets it is not the rule. If a crypto is allowed to become a currency for transactions, then it will undermine monetary policy and the entire system of payments will go for a toss. And finally in case there is a crash in value, the investors will lose money for which there is no recourse.

Also, there is need to know more on how these transactions take place. There are exchanges which allow one to trade; and it is still unclear whether the transactions are in rupees and remain in this currency or get converted to dollars. If it is in rupees and mimics what happens to the crypto globally then it is not serious, but if there are conversions into dollars then there would be a FEMA rule to contend with.

The exchanges which promote trading in crypto are transparent in terms of doing a KYC of all players. This aspect needs to be clear because if there is conversion into dollars at any stage it needs to be within the guidelines put by the RBI.

Investment option

The second aspect is the investment option. If cryptos are being used as an investment option by people, then the nature of debate changes. The exchanges vouch that there is KYC done for every customer and that all taxes are paid on the gains. It is still not clear if the gains come under short or long term and the I-T Department will have to decide on this issue.

The broader issue is that if one can trade in imaginary currencies it does tantamount to gambling which is partly permitted in the country. Horse racing and the bets that go along with this avocation is legitimate as are lotteries. Casinos can operate in some States. If trading in cryptos fall in this category, then as an extension it can be argued that people should be allowed to gamble on cricket matches too and there should be a level playing field.

Therefore, there is need to do a deep dive analysis into this entire issue of crypto currency as the level of interest is high and increasing. Part of the reason is that people want to make quick money and the present avenues of savings — bank deposits which give a paltry return — makes these alternatives alluring. Allowing such investments also risks savings getting diverted for speculative purposes which is not good for an economy which normally has a big gap in savings and investments.

Besides people investing should know what they are up against. SEBI runs strong campaigns along with the stock exchanges to caution investors on trading as well as investing in mutual funds which all have ‘underlying’ products like shares, commodities or bonds. For something fictional, people need to know what they are up against, because when there is a crash there can be an issue. The price of bitcoin had risen from $8,527 on March 1, 2020 to a high of $62,986 on April 15, 2021 and then fell to $30,822 on July 20, 2021. It again crossed $67,000 on November 9. Intuitively it can be seen that there would be several gainers and losers in this game and those who are in the latter category could be the ones who have been lured by the lucre.

Threat for central banks

Globally this has become a wave which cannot be stopped. Some states in the US accept bitcoins for transactions as do some of the Nordic countries. It is not a good precedent for central banks which will see their power over monetary policy getting denuded. Interestingly, the concept of crypto emerged on the premise that central banks and governments mismanage money and make them worthless with loose policies. This made the concept of bitcoin enticing driving its popularity.

The fear of a backlash at some point of time is palpable and this concept can be likened to a Frankenstein which may be hard to push back once it grows roots in the system. Ideally a call should be taken for sure to make it illegal for transactions as this strikes the edifice of not just the financial system but also monetary policy. On whether it should be allowed as a form of gambling, there can be further debate.

The government need not be concerned over people who are aware of the downside of cryptos, but the less financially literate need to be educated just as it is done for sin products. Maybe a bold print saying ‘trading in crypto can be bad for your financial health’ can be the beginning.

The writer is an independent economist and author of: Hits & Misses: The Indian Banking Story. Views expressed are personal

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PhonePe surpasses two billion mark in monthly transactions in October

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Homegrown digital payments platform PhonePe on Wednesday announced that it has processed over two billion transactions on its platform in October 2021.

The platform had crossed the one billion monthly transaction mark in February this year, and has now hit the two billion milestone in eight months.

It’s significant growth comes on the back of rapid traction across Tier II, Tier III cities and beyond, it said. PhonePe said that it has seen over 145 million monthly active users, $600 billion annualised total payments value (TPV) and digital transactions from over 19000 pin codes.

Sameer Nigam, Founder and CEO, PhonePe said, “Last month was phenomenal for PhonePe, as we processed our highest ever transactions till date, cementing our position as India’s leading payments platform.”

“The fact that 80 per cent of our transactions come from Tier II, Tier III cities and beyond, show that digital payments have truly penetrated across the length and breadth of the country. We will continue to build the most preferred digital payments and financial services destination for a billion plus Indians while transforming lives positively,” added Nigam.

The platform has crossed this milestones as digital payments continue to gain traction.

Amidst festival season sales and opening up of the economy, Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions touched a record high at ₹7.71 lakh crore in value terms in October. This marked a new record for UPI, which is fast becoming the most popular choice for digital payments.

It was a 56 per cent jump from ₹6.54 lakh crore in transaction value recorded in September.

According to data recently released by National Payments Corporation of India, the number of transactions on the UPI platform amounted to 421 crore in October, compared to 365 crore in September.

PhonePe and Google Pay continue to maintain their lead as the most popular UPI payment apps, with the two apps enjoying market shares of 44 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, in the first six months of 2021, according to a recent 2021 India Mobile Payments Market report. Together, the two apps handled more than 12 billion transactions worth $338 billion, as per the report.

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SBI Report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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People may be holding as much as Rs. 3.3 lakh crores in cash for emergency purposes due to the Covid related dislocation in their income expectations, estimates SBI. The rise in cash to GDP ratio may be misleading due to this factor. If one adjusts for the emergency, the cash to GDP ratio may be lower than the pre-demonetisation level.

“Our estimate also shows that because of the pandemic people may have been holding as much as Rs 3.3 lakh crores in cash for precautionary motive beginning FY21″ said SBI Research team’s report titled “A Guide to Formalisation of Economy since FY18”.It adds that “If we adjust for such currency transactions, the currency to GDP ratio for pure payment purposes may have actually declined in FY21 compared to earlier years.”

The formalization efforts are bearing major fruit in terms of currency /GDP ratio. The research report by the country’s largest lender estimates that without pandemic GDP collapse, CIC/GDP ratio would have been 12.7% in FY21, as against 12.4% in FY11.

Indian consumers are migrating to high end technology platforms like UPI- Unified payments interface- that does not require the intervention of a POS or a point of sale machine and factor authentications: UPI transactions have jumped 70 times in last 4 years.

Latest currency in circulation data reveals that it has remained constant over the previous year even as record purchases happened during Diwali at Rs 1.25 lakh crores. The latest RBI data show that currency in circulation rose Rs 43,892 crore during the festival weekend, almost the same as the previous year’s Diwali week when the festival spends were lacklustre. “This happened for the first time since 2014” said S K Ghosh, SBI’s group chief economic advisor, who has authored the report.

“Indian consumers now prefer convenience in payments through the click of a button. The vast quantity of information that is produced as a passive by-product of the use of such UPI transactions holds a great promise as a transformative resource for real time policy and evidence based policy making” Ghosh said.

As this would need use of huge swaths of data and use of artificial intellegence by banks, the report recommends scaling up of large investment in cloud platforms by banks. “This might also necessitate regulatory interventions of both Central Banks and Government so that database can be harnessed and stored and also used for real time policy making” Ghosh said.



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Auto debit bounce rates drop in Oct to pre-Covid levels, may fall further in festive season, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Auto-debit payment bounce rates have dropped to near pre-Covid levels in October in tandem with the opening up of the economy as the pandemic retreated.Of the 86.6 million transactions initiated in October, 27 million transactions, or 31.24 per cent, failed, while 59.52 million were successful, according to the NACH data.
In value terms, 24.83 per cent of the transactions declined in October — the lowest since January 2020.

Volume-wise, the bounce rates were at similar levels seen during pre-Covid wave months of January and February of 2020, and by value, 260 basis points (bps) better than January-March 2021 period, which was the best quarter last year in terms of recovery for the economy.

Improvement over September

On a month-on-month basis, bounce rates have declined 50-60 bps by volume/value. Bounce rates were 31.7% and 25.4% by volume and value, respectively, for September. In August, these figures were at 33% and 26.8% by volume and value, respectively, while in July they were 33.2% and 27.4% by volume and value.

Despite the steady improvement, bounce rates continued to remain above the average levels of 2019. The current bounce rates by value are nearly 300 basis points higher than pre-Covid levels. Most banks and non-bank lenders have reported an increase in fresh disbursements and improvement in collections continues to remain their top priority.

Collection efficiencies

Collection efficiency improved in the September quarter, though slippages have been high in the retail and MSME segment the quantum is likely to have moderated sequentially, keeping asset quality in check, according to analysts.

Typically, auto-debit transactions are for recurring payments such as EMIs and insurance premiums although it does not capture intra-bank transactions. With the second wave of the pandemic leading to localised lockdowns and impacting economic activities, bounce rates had started to climb up from April 2021 after easing from December 2020.

In the last two months, as Covid cases have come down in most parts of the country and the economy has opened up again, bounce rates have started coming down again. Many lenders have reported that collection efficiencies have returned to normal and are at the pre-second wave levels.

Asset quality recovery

Non-bank lenders and housing finance companies, which suffered during the first quarter of this fiscal, are likely to report a steady recovery in asset quality and demand for fresh loans along with improved payment collections in the September quarter.

“The first quarter of fiscal 2022 was impacted by the second Covid wave. Relative to 1QFY22, we expect disbursement volumes of 170-230% for most Affordable Housing/Vehicle Financiers. Impact on AUM growth is likely to be higher for short duration products like Vehicle loans as collections held up well in 2QFY22,” Motilal Oswal Securities said in a note.

For vehicle financiers, or MFIs, the collection efficiencies are likely to be in the 90-100% range. After the high levels of restructuring witnessed in 1Q, a relatively lower incremental restructuring is likely in the second quarter.



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UPI hits new record with ₹7.71-lakh crore worth of transactions in October

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Amidst festival season sales and opening up of the economy, UPI transactions touched a record high at ₹7.71 lakh crore in value terms in October.

This was a new record for UPI, which is fast becoming the most popular choice for digital payments. It was a 56 per cent jump from ₹6.54 lakh crore in transaction value recorded in September.

According to data released by National Payments Corporation of India on Monday, the number of transactions on the Unified Payments Interface platform amounted to 421 crore in October, compared to 365 crore in September.

Daily payments through UPI were averaging between ₹25,000 crore to ₹30,000 crore in October.

Also read: Mobile payments growing faster than card payments

The Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) also scaled a new high in October and processed 43.06 crore transactions worth ₹3.7 lakh crore. It had processed 38.48 crore transactions amounting to ₹3.24 lakh crore in September.

Meanwhile, there were 21.42 crore transactions via the NETC FASTags totalling ₹3,356.74 crore in October compared to 19.36 crore transactions worth ₹3,009.3 crore in September.

Mobile payments are now growing faster than card payments and are clocking over $1 trillion in annualised value in 2021, the 2021 India Mobile Payments Market Report by S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Financial Institutions Research team had said.

Also read: Strong growth in digital payments indicates a lasting shift in consumer payment behaviour

According to the report, payments made via apps that bypass credit card rails rose 67 per cent to $478 billion in 2020.

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PhonePe transactions grew 33.6% between July and September

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During July to September 2021, PhonePe saw 33.6 per cent growth in transactions from the previous quarter at 526.5 crore, while the value of transactions grew 23.3 per cent to ₹9,21,674 crore.

According to the Q3 (July-September) 2021 data released on PhonePe Pulse — an interactive website with digital payment data, insights and trends in India — money transfers with UPI and merchant payments clocked 221 crore and 231 crore transactions, respectively. Further, offline merchant payments grew faster than online, 65 per cent higher than the previous quarter, marking a period of recovery after the second wave of the pandemic and the rapid reopening of stores.

Coming soon, new framework for offline digital payments

As many as 720 of the country’s 726 districts registered a growth in digital transactions by volume. The number of registered users grew from 30.5 crore to 32.8 crore.

Digital transactions grew 80% in last 250 days: Razorpay report

Karthik Raghupathy, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations at PhonePe, said, “When we launched PhonePe Pulse, we committed to publishing data periodically, and we are delighted to share the insights from the first Pulse data refresh. The rapid growth we are seeing quarter-on-quarter is a strong indicator that digital payments are penetrating across the length and breadth of the country. It is going to be an exciting next quarter with the festivities and the holiday season; we are already looking forward to interesting insights and trends from Q4 2021.”

Launched in September 2021, PhonePe Pulse showcases more than 2,000 crore transactions by consumers on an interactive map of India.

PhonePe says it has over 32.5 crore registered users, who can send and receive money, recharge mobile phones, DTH, data cards, pay at stores, make utility payments, buy gold and make investments. PhonePe ventured into financial services in 2017 with the launch of its Gold platform for buying 24-karat gold. It has since launched mutual funds and insurance products like tax-saving funds, liquid funds, international travel insurance, life insurance, and insurance for the Covid-19 pandemic, among others. PhonePe is accepted at over 2.2 crore merchant outlets across India.

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e-RUPI could be bigger than UPI, say experts

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The government’s latest digital payments offering, e-RUPI, permits offline transactions which can be carried out on feature phones, promoting its adoption in rural and remote areas as well.

This could potentially lead to large-scale adoption of the payment solution as even the popular Unified Payments Interface (UPI), preferred in urban and semi urban areas, requires internet connectivity and a smart phone.

The beneficiary does not even require a bank account or a digital app to use the voucher.

Also see: Explained | What is e-RUPI?

“The e-RUPI voucher will be shared with the beneficiary through an SMS or QR code. This will enable its use in rural and remote areas as well where internet connectivity can be a challenge. Since it is in the form of an SMS, it can be used by people who do not have a smart phone,” said Rajesh Mirjankar, Managing Director and CEO, Infrasoft Technologies.

It will also ensure targeted delivery of funds and help measure the social impact of subsidies, he added.

Infrasoft Technologies is working with two of the 11 banks offering e-RUPI and is set to work with two more banks in the coming days.

“It will give a new dimension to digital transactions and as it can be redeemed without a card or internet banking access at the service provider. The best part of the new payment medium is it can be controlled. The issuer can ensure that the money is being spent for the allocated purpose and can track the redemption of the voucher,” said Mandar Agashe, Founder and MD, Sarvatra Technologies.

Corporates and banks have also expressed an interest in using e-RUPI vouchers for their own products and offerings, for which discussions are understood to have been initiated with the National Payments Corporation of India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched e-RUPI, a person and purpose specific digital payment solution, on August 2. A one time payment mechanism, users will be able to redeem the voucher without a card, digital payments app or internet banking access, at merchants accepting e-RUPI.

At present, 11 banks are live with this solution along with over 1,600 hospitals. More banks are expected to go live soon.

It can currently be used for schemes related to the health ministry, but more direct benefit transfer schemes are expected to be included in coming months.

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Flipkart Pay Later crosses 42 million transactions

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E-commerce major Flipkart has touched 42 million transactions on its credit offering Flipkart Pay Later. With over 2.8 million customers transacting through Flipkart Pay Later, the company is targeting a 2X growth over the next six months. The expansion will include making ‘Pay Later’ available on other partner channels as well.

Plan to cross 100 million transactions

Flipkart Pay Later claims to have observed a 70% adoption rate among customers at the time of order check-out. The company now aims to cross the 100 million transaction benchmark by the end of the year. Flipkart Pay Later has also seen an increase of over 50% in the number of registered users as of July 21, 2021 in comparison to last year.

Customers are said to have used the Flipkart Pay Later mainly for purchases across categories of beauty and general merchandise, home and lifestyle. Ranjith Boyanapalli, Head – Fintech and Payments Group at Flipkart, said, “The success of Flipkart Pay Later so far has shown the benefits that the construct is able to provide to millions of customers and has made us confident of its market-readiness for a much wider adoption – both on and outside Flipkart Group’s platforms.”

Also read: Flipkart doubles furniture sellers to 10,000; ramps up furniture selection to 3.5 lakh products ahead of festival season sale

Flipkart Pay Later offers customers affordable credit solutions for shopping. It is a 30-day credit product that does not have an interest fee and can be operated without an OTP for most transactions. According to a recent TransUnion Cibil-Google report, small-ticket lending has gone up from 10% in 2017 to 60% in 2020. Customers are increasingly relying on fintech companies for their credit demand which has been accelerated during the pandemic.

Started in 2007, Flipkart claims to have a registered customer base of over 350 million and offers 150 million products across 80+ categories. Flipkart Group includes group companies Flipkart, Myntra, Flipkart Wholesale, and Cleartrip. The group is also a majority shareholder in PhonePe, one of the major digital payments companies in India. Other players competing with Flipkart Pay Later include LazyPay, and Simpl.

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BHIM UPI to foray into Bhutan

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NPCI International Payments Ltd (NIPL) and Royal Monetary Authority (RMA) of Bhutan have entered a partnership for enabling and implementing BHIM UPI QR-based payments in Bhutan.

“The collaboration between NIPL and RMA will enable acceptance of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) powered BHIM App in Bhutan,” NPCI said in a statement.

ALSO READ UPI transactions cross ₹5 lakh crore in March

RMA will ensure that the participating NPCI mobile application through UPI QR transactions is accepted at all RMA-acquired merchants in Bhutan.

Bhutan will become the first country to adopt UPI standards for its QR deployment. It will also become the only country to both issue and accept RuPay cards as well as accept BHIM UPI.

ALSO READ Future of the Rupee

“The service will be formally launched by Finance Minister of India Nirmala Sitharaman on July 13,” NPCI further said.

The launch will also benefit more than 2 lakh tourists from India who travel to Bhutan each year.

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