HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis retail loan recast thrice corporate ones, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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It was not corporates but retail borrowers who rushed to avail the debt recast scheme announced by the Reserve Bank of India to alleviate pandemic stress last year.

Retail loan restructuring by top three private banks, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, at Rs 6,600 crore, was three times the Rs 2,100 crore restructured loans by corporates, according to a report.

However, while the retail loan restructuring ended by March 31, corporate loan recasts are allowed till June end.

Fresh concerns

With a fresh surge in Covid infections and subsequent lockdowns, lenders are staring at renewed stress in loan accounts.

Sameer Narang, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, recently told ETBFSI that the salaried segment is still alright but the informal sector will be impacted. “Banks may not be that impacted as banks do not cater the informal sector in a big way as NBFCs does. There will be an impact on NBFCs, and they would require some degree of support. It also depends upon the pace of the second wave. We should wait and see how things pan out. If it is a phenomenon for 6-8 weeks then most of the segments will ride it over. If it lasts longer then this might be an issue for segments. It is very difficult to create a policy in an uncertain environment.”

Asset quality

HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis retail loan recast thrice corporate ones

Ratings agency Icra too had raised concerns over the asset quality of retail loans.

The rising Covid cases have again raised concerns on the asset quality of retail loans from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs), according to investment information agency ICRA.

The restrictions on movement will have a bearing on the collection efforts of NBFCs especially for microfinance loans where cash collections still remain dominant, it said in a report.

Commercial vehicle loans can also face stress if the inter-state restrictions are re-imposed, though even the current restrictions put in place in key geographies like Maharashtra and Delhi where non-essential services are closed will lead to lower fleet utilisation for operators.

However, said ICRA, housing loans are expected to remain most resilient as was seen even last year given the secured nature of asset class and priority given by borrowers to repay them.

No relief measures

Banks, which got protection and support by a swift moratorium on loans when the pandemic first struck, have no such cover this time.

As the second wave intensifies, most of the relief measures and schemes announced by the government and Reserve Bank of India have expired. On top of it, the central bank is non-committal on moratoriums.
“In today’s conditions, there is no need for a moratorium,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had said after the central bank’s monetary policy review.

Also, a spike in overdue loans after the lifting of the moratorium has been worrying analysts.

“The level of loans in overdue categories has increased after the moratorium has been lifted and the impact on asset quality will be spread over FY2021 and FY2022 as various interventions and relief measures have prevented a large one-time hit on profitability and capital of banks,” Icra said in a report.

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Banks want debt recast scheme back as Covid wave intensifies, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Banks have sought an extension of one-time debt recast scheme as the curbs after fresh Covid wave are likely to increase defaults and affect asset quality.

The bank chiefs have petitioned RBI to extend the scheme introduced last year in a meeting with the governor earlier this week, according to reports.

No relief measures

Banks, which got protection and support by a swift moratorium on loans when the pandemic first struck, have no such cover this time.

As the second wave intensifies, most of the relief measures and schemes announced by the government and Reserve Bank of India have expired. On top of it, the central bank is non-committal on moratoriums.

In today’s conditions, there is no need for a moratoriumRBI governor Shaktikanta Das

Also, a spike in overdue loans after the lifting of the moratorium has been worrying analysts.

“The level of loans in overdue categories has increased after the moratorium has been lifted and the impact on asset quality will be spread over FY2021 and FY2022 as various interventions and relief measures have prevented a large one-time hit on profitability and capital of banks,” ratings agency Icra said in a report.

What Fitch says

Banks want debt recast scheme back as Covid wave intensifies

India’s second wave of Covid infections poses increased risks for India’s fragile economic recovery and its banks, says Fitch Ratings. It already expects a moderately worse environment for the Indian banking sector in 2021, but headwinds would intensify should rising infections and follow-up measures to contain the virus further affect business and economic activity.

Fitch forecasts India’s real GDP growth at 12.8% for the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). This incorporates expectations of a slowdown in 2Q21 due to the flareup in new coronavirus cases but the rising pace of infections poses renewed risks to the forecast. Over 80% of the new infections are in six prominent states, which combined account for roughly 45% of total banking sector loans. Any further disruption in economic activity in these states would pose a setback for fragile business sentiment, even though a stringent pan-India lockdown like the one in 2020 is unlikely.

Challenging environment

The operating environment for banks will most likely remain challenging against this backdrop. This second wave could dent the sluggish recovery in consumer and corporate confidence, and further suppress banks’ prospects for new business (9MFY21 credit growth: +4.5% as per Fitch’s estimate), it said. There are also asset quality concerns since banks’ financial results are yet to fully factor in the first wave’s impact and the stringent 2020 lockdown due to the forbearances in place. We consider the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) and retail loans to be most at risk, the rating agency said.

Retail loans have been performing better than our expectations but might see increased stress if renewed restrictions impinge further on individual incomes and savings. MSMEs, however, benefited from state-guaranteed refinancing schemes that prevented stressed exposures from souring.

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