Retail loan margins thin, won’t take risks higher than appetite: Sumit Bali, group executive & head – retail lending, Axis Bank

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Sumit Bali, group executive & head – retail lending, Axis Bank

Retail lending has recovered well from the lows seen in April-May, but supply-side issues are hurting auto loan growth, Sumit Bali, group executive and head – retail lending, Axis Bank, tells Shritama Bose. The bank is avoiding aggressive risk-taking in home loans as margins are thin, he added. Excerpts:

How has the retail market recovered after the second Covid wave?
Clearly, we had a very good Q4 as an industry and specifically for us, if you see the numbers, we grew almost 6% quarter-on-quarter. So we went into Q1 of this financial year with that kind of momentum, but post-April 20, the bottom just fell off. In the next two months the deterioration was extremely sharp. There was fear, people were delaying everything, they were sitting on cash, preserving cash. Even we couldn’t go out to collect or meet customers. But since July, we are also seeing a sharper uptick. Last month, home sales were back to almost 95% of March levels. When we see some other parameters, especially on the cards side, those also point to a sharp recovery. When you dice the spends on the cards, a lot of the discretionary spends which had vanished — travel, eating out, dining, hotels, etc — we are seeing a fair bit of pick-up in that from the base level. But overall, spends have been record-high for the industry. This means customer confidence is coming back. There’s a sharp improvement on the delinquency metrics across the industry, when we see the bureau data.

What about the auto loans segment?
Interestingly, on the new cars side, demand is good, but the supply-side issues persist because of the chip shortage. That’s creating a different kind of problem for us. When we spoke to people in the manufacturing industry back in July, they had said production should be normal in October-November. It is not looking like that. There is some unexpected closure of a Bosch plant in Malaysia due to Covid, so that’s not fully back on steam. Given the long waiting periods, one sees the demand for cars also coming back. Used car prices are up. One of the unintended benefits of Covid is the demand for larger homes, so people can work from home and kids can study from home online. The second thing is the need for personal mobility. So when you put all this together, certainly we are getting into the festive season with a fair bit of tailwinds and very decent customer confidence. But for a third wave of Covid, things have started looking pretty good.

There’s a lot of competition in the home loan segment. You seem to have stayed away from rock-bottom pricing. How do you see that market?
As a bank, we have very clearly defined our risk appetite and in retail lending, margins are thin. It makes no sense to take risk higher than your appetite. When you lose money, you lose a fair bit of the principal. So we’ve not diluted our standards.

Rates can only rise from current levels. Is there risk building up in the system?
The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has done a very intelligent thing by setting the LTV (loan-to-value) on home loans at 75%. There is a very strong association of the customer with their home. Post-Covid, people want to have a home. You are seeing inflation inch up, so everyone expects that rates will firm up over a period of time. But, in home loans you also have this facility of extending the tenor while keeping the EMI the same. If rates go up, it would mean that demand is good. Therefore, we don’t see great risk in there, given the margin and that we can keep the monthly outflow the same.

We see an increase in repossession notices for small borrowers’ properties. Is repossession actually on the rise?
So, for almost a year, there was no activity in terms of repossession or sale. Given the environment, courts were also holding on to giving permissions. Now, all that has started opening up. So there are permissions coming in, there is permission to sell out the inventory. In cases where customers have suffered large amounts of losses and can’t service (their loans), there are auctions happening. What you are seeing now, in a normal economic environment, you would have seen over a period of 15 months. It’s just that they have got bunched up together.

Do you continue to be cautious on unsecured loans, as you were up to the beginning of this year?
We’ve always said that from an 80:20 kind of a split, which is what we have as of June, we would be comfortable moving a bit more towards unsecured. That may be, say, 22-23% over a period of time. That remains our stated ambition and we are working towards that mix. The Covid second wave put a brake on that, but our goal remains that.

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Festival season to give boost to retail credit demand

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With the festival season now starting, lenders are expecting a further uptick in retail loan demand and many banks are now announcing special schemes.

“Credit demand from retail customers has been reviving. With Covid cases low in many parts of the country and the festival season starting, there is expectation of heightened interest in loans for items such as consumer durables as well as home and auto loans. Typically, this is the time when people invest in new homes and purchase vehicles,” noted an executive with a private bank.

Kotak Bank

Private sector lender Kotak Mahindra Bank has announced a 15-basis point reduction in home loan rates as a limited period festival season offer beginning September 10 and ending November 8.

State-run Punjab National Bank and Bank of India too have announced festival loan schemes and many other lenders are expected to announce special festival offers in coming weeks.

Fintech lenders have also reported rising demand for credit from retail customers.

“We are seeing improved demand for credit from the first quarter of 2021, supported by economic recovery and improving domestic market due to the reduced risk of Covid-19. We are currently disbursing loans worth ₹120-130 crore per month on a consistent basis since July 2021 which is nearly 70 per cent higher compared to a year ago,” said Yogi Sadana, CEO, CASHe, adding that with the festival season around the corner, he expects an uptick for loan demand for purposes specifically related to wedding, travel, house improvement and purchase of white goods.

Yezdi Lashkari, Founder and CEO, Flexmoney Technologies, said there has been over 4.5 times year on year growth in consumer credit disbursed through its network just this past quarter. “The main use of these loans is for the purchase of electronics and appliances, fashion and personal care, mobile, home and furnishing,” he noted.

In recent months, retail loans have been growing at a robust pace with most banks focussing on this book. According to RBI data, personal loans registered an accelerated growth of 11.2 per cent in July 2021 as compared to 9 per cent a year ago, primarily due to higher growth in ‘loans against gold jewellery’ and ‘vehicle loans’.

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Retail loans surpass industry loans for first time as corporates avoid banks, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Retail loans continue to grow at a faster pace as loan demand from large corporates trips.

The outstanding retail loans are higher at Rs 28.6 lakh crore against Rs 28.2 lakh crore for industry that includes MSMEs and large corporates at the end of July. The outstanding loans to the services sector stand at Rs 26 lakh crore.

The growth rate of the retail/personal loans segment stood at 11.2% in July 2021, higher by 220 bps when compared with July 2020.

In absolute terms, credit outstanding has increased from Rs 25.7 lakh crore in July 2020 to Rs 28.6 lakh crore in July 2021.

The growth in retail loans has been driven by personal unsecured, vehicle loans and gold loan lending by some banks. The growth rate came in higher by 120 bps as compared with March 2021.

However, the retail/personal loans segment contracted on a sequential basis, but at a slower rate. The incremental credit growth to sub-segments contracted except for consumer durables and credit cards segment. The retail/personal loans segment has continued to be the second-largest amongst the four major segments with a share of around 26%.

Retail bifurcation

Within the retail segment, the housing loan with the highest share of 51.3%, slowed to 8.9% as compared with a growth of 11.1% in the same period of the last year. The housing loan segment was impacted due to the second wave of the pandemic, as there is no reasonable pickup seen in the housing segment. Credit card outstanding (share of 4.0%) registered a growth of 9.8% y-o-y as compared with a growth of 8.6% in July 2020, as discretionary spending was significantly impacted in the previous year due to the Covid outbreak.

Incrementally, retail/personal loans segment registered marginal growth. Within retail/personal segment, consumer durables, housing loans and loans against gold witnessed an increase, while the other segments reported a decline.

Industry loans

The industry segment witnessed a growth of 1% on YoY basis in July 2021, after witnessing a de-growth in previous month.

Large industries account for 80.5% share (83.8% share in July 2020) in the total outstanding credit to industries and this segment reported a drop of 2.9% in July 2021 versus a growth of 1.4% in July 2020.

The growth movement is weak as corporates continue to de-leverage and select large corporates access to bond markets. MSME industries grew by 21.3% in July 2021 (which partially offset the fall in large segments) as compared with a drop of 1.8% in July 2020. The growth in lending to industry and services was almost entirely led by the MSME segment, which was driven by disbursements under ECLGS scheme wherein Rs 2.14 lakh crore were disbursed up till date.

Of total 19 industries, six industries witnessed a drop in credit outstanding. Petroleum, coal products and nuclear fuels (share of 2.5%) registered the highest growth of 22.7% within industries (growth of 8% in July 2020). Rubber, Plastic, and their Products segment growth stood at 16.4% as compared with a growth of 7.4% in July 2020.

The infrastructure segment, which has the highest share of 38.3% in the total bank credit outstanding to industries, registered a growth of 2.4% in July 2021 as compared with a growth of 2.2% a year ago. Within the infrastructure segment, the airport segment registered a robust growth of 58.4% followed by the road segment at 29.7% in July 2021. While ports and telecommunication segments registered a de-growth of 21.9% and 13.5% respectively in July 2021 as compared with a growth of 17.3% and 19.6% respectively in July 2020.



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Medium industries show a sharp 72% jump in credit growth in July, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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With the easing of restrictions of movement and economy, credit offtake is also rising.

The credit growth in the last two months is being led by is led by MSMEs, agriculture and retail even as corporate lending stays tepid.

Lending to MSMEs, agriculture and retail picked up sharply in July this year over previous year’s levels, data on sectoral deployment of bank credit released by the Reserve Bank of India showed.

Credit to agriculture and allied activities expanded 12.4% in July 2021 as compared with 5.4% in last July. But credit to medium industries rose at a much faster pace – by 72% – in July 2021 as compared to a contraction of 1.8% a year ago.

Hinterland growth

Much of the growth has accordingly come from urban, semi-urban and rural areas. Weighted average lending rates on outstanding and fresh loans are down 91 basis points (bps) and 80 bps, respectively, since the pandemic-induced lockdown in March 2020.

Credit to micro and small industries rose 7.9% in July 2021 as compared to a contraction of 1.8% a year ago.

Retail loans, too, expanded at a faster pace of 11.2% in July 2021 as compared to 9% a year ago, primarily due to higher growth in ‘loans against gold jewellery’ and ‘vehicle loans’ growth of 1.4% a year ago.

Credit growth to the services sector slowed to 2.7% in July 2021 from 12.2% in

July 2020, mainly due to slowdown in bank lending to ‘NBFCs’, and ‘commercial real estate.

In June

Loans to agriculture and allied activities showed an accelerated growth of 11.4 per cent in June 2021 as compared to 2.4 per cent in June 2020.

Retail loans, covering housing and vehicles, among others, registered an accelerated growth of 11.9 per cent in June 2021 compared to 10.4 per cent a year ago.

The overall credit growth in the industrial segment fell by 0.3 per cent in June 2021 from growth of 2.2 per cent a year ago.

Credit to medium industries rose by 54.6 per cent in June 2021 compared to a contraction of nine per cent a year ago.

Credit growth to micro and small units rose to 6.4 per cent in June 2021 compared to a contraction of 2.9 per cent in June 2020.



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IDFC First Bank aims retail loan book growth of 25 per cent on long-term basis, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Private sector IDFC First Bank is aiming its retail loan book to grow by 25 per cent on a long-term basis and expects the mortgage lending to account for 40 per cent of its loan book going forward. Bank’s profits before provisioning are low currently because of the DFI (development financial institution) background with higher cost of legacy liabilities, and due to the set-up cost of a new bank, V Vaidyanathan, Managing Director and CEO, IDFC First Bank, said in bank’s Annual Report 2020-21.

“This is getting fixed at a quick pace because of our strong profitability on an incremental basis…the underlying quality of the bank we are building is not entirely visible at this stage to you,” he said in his message to the bank shareholders.

Contending that it was not right to compare IDFC First Bank with the already established 20-30 years old banks or with entities who were profitable when they converted to banks, he said “the power of incremental profitability is lost in the noise”.

IDFC First Bank reported a net profit of Rs 452 crore in 2020-21. There was a net loss of Rs 2,864 crore in FY20.

The erstwhile IDFC Bank had merged non-banking finance company Capital First with itself in December 2018, post which Vaidyanathan took over as the managing director and CEO of IDFC First Bank.

He said IDFC First Bank has strong incremental profitability of retail lending as well as corporate lending business.

In retail, the incremental borrowing cost is less than 5 per cent, the lending rate is over 14 per cent, thus the incremental spreads on retail is over 9 per cent.

“We have specialisation in these segments and our credit costs (provisioning) are expected to be about 2 per cent based on the combination of products we finance. Thus our incremental ROE (return on equity) in the retail lending business is estimated at 18-20 per cent,” Vaidyanathan added.

There is strong incremental profitability of corporate lending business with estimated incremental business ROE at 14-15 per cent. However, he said that this is not visible on the bank’s books because of the higher cost of Rs 1,000 crore from legacy liabilities and set up costs in retail business as it is a new bank.

It is carrying Rs 27,936 crore of fixed rated liabilities at 8.66 per cent, as it converted from a DFI to a bank.

“When our bank will replace this let’s say 5 per cent, we would save about Rs 1,000 crore per year on an annuity basis compared to today. This is a legacy issue on the liability side and will go away with time,” he noted.

On set up cost since merger, IDFC First Bank has invested in 390 branches, 565 ATMs, added over 12,000 employees, boosted technology and scaled up many new businesses like credit cards, wealth management, gold loans, prime home loans among others.

These investments are giving us a negative drag today but this will become profitable with scale, Vaidyanathan said.

“The negative drag because of high cost liabilities will go away as the bank will repay these liabilities on maturity. And the negative drag because of investments will go away with scale,” IDFC First Bank said.

Thus the highly profitable retail and wholesale businesses will shine the results. “Our lending business is immensely profitable. We expect to grow the retail book by nearly 25 per cent on a compounded basis for a long period of time.”

“This is already playing out over the last two-and-a-half years, as the NIM (net interest margin) has already expanded from 1.84 per cent pre-merger to 5.09 per cent in Q4 FY 21 and further to 5.51 per cent in Q1FY22. We expect profitability to increase as we expand the loan book,” Vaidyanathan added.

The lender is also expanding customer segments to cover prime home loans and has lowered interest rates.

“We can sustainably pursue prime home loans, the safest category of loans. We expect mortgage backed loans to form 40 per cent of our loan book in due course,” said the official.

He said the bank is also targeting a 2-1-2 formula to keep its gross non-performing assets (NPAs or bad loans) at 2 per cent, net NPAs at 1 per cent and provisions at 2 per cent on a steady basis. In FY21, its gross NPAs were over 4.15 per cent and net NPAs stood at 1.86 per cent.

Speaking about bank’s exposure to cash-strapped telecom player Vodafone Idea, the MD told the shareholders that he expects the government to support the industry, as out of the total dues of the telecom player, as high as Rs 1.5 lakh crore are owed to the government only.

“…hence they will be keen to solve this issue. In any case, we have a lot of growth capital by our side. We will peruse the matter through law of the land.”

He said a “one-off incident does not dent the long-term story”.

Bank’s exposure to Vodafone Idea stood at Rs 3,244 crore as of June 30, 2021. Among others, the bank said it plans to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore debt capital and will seek shareholders’ approval in the annual general meeting (AGM) next month.

After assessing its fund requirements, the board of directors of the bank in July 2021 have proposed to obtain consent of the members of the bank for borrowing funds from time to time, in Indian or foreign currency by issue of debt securities on private placement basis, up to an amount not exceeding Rs 5,000 crore, it said.

Bank’s 7th AGM is on September 15, 2021.

The bank will also seek their consent to re-appoint Vaidyanathan as the MD&CEO for a period of three years from December 19, 2021.

He was appointed to head the bank for a period of three years from December 19, 2018.

His term would conclude on December 18, 2021 and the board of the bank had approved his appointment for another three years in June 2021, subject to approval of shareholders and RBI.

“Accordingly, the bank has filed an application with the RBI for re-appointment of V Vaidyanathan as the MD & CEO of the Bank. The approval of RBI is awaited.”

The approval of the members is now sought for his reappointment for a period of three consecutive years commencing from December 19, 2021 up to December 18, 2024 (both days inclusive), it added.



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HDFC Bank cautious on retail biz, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai: The second wave of the pandemic has turned HDFC Bank cautious with respect to retail loans. The bank’s overall retail loan book shrank from Rs 5.27 lakh crore at the end-March 2021 to Rs 5.23 lakh crore at the end-June. Retail loans fell with a drop in credit card outstandings, auto loans, two-wheeler loans and loans against securities.

According to HDFC Bank’s chief financial officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, credit card outstanding shrank to Rs 60,429 crore in end-June from Rs 64,674 crore in end-March because of a drop in revolving credit. He said that the focus was on the quality of credit and around three-fourths of the bank’s credit card customers have deposits that are on average five times the credit card outstanding. He was addressing analysts in a conference call after the bank’s results for the first quarter of the current fiscal.

Speaking in the same call, head (retail assets) Arvind Kapil said that the bank was now seeing buoyancy returning to the personal loan segment and expects good growth in future.

The bank, which is facing a freeze on issuing new cards, has completed an audit of its IT systems as required by the RBI and is now waiting to hear from the central bank. Even as it awaits the RBI’s nod for resuming card issuance, the bank is rapidly growing its card-acceptance business. Vaidyanathan said that the bank already has 2.3 million merchant-acceptance points and it has a 50% market share of merchants being on-boarded for card acceptance as against 40% last year.

HDFC Bank’s chief credit officer Jimmy Tata said that, during the quarter, things had not been the most orderly because of the second wave. “We were pretty much back to pre-Covid level until March, till the second wave hit us in April. We found our staff getting infected rapidly and we stopped going out on recovery calls. Most of the work was work-from-home. It is only in the month of June that we had the ability to start going out,” he said. In the second quarter, there has been a high level of vaccinations in the bank and staff have returned to the office for calling on borrowers.

According to Tata, the one product segment that has seen a non-Covid impact was diesel commercial vehicles (CVs), because they have not been able to pass on the sharp hike in fuel costs. He said that the bank was watching the portfolio as it would take two quarters for the price hike to be passed on. “We expect that by the festival season, things would have been brought back on an even keel, with cost increases passed on.”

On the cards business, Srinivasan said that HDFC Bank’s debit card issuance would not be hit because of the ban on Mastercard except for a couple of co-branded cards. He said that cards contribute between one-fourth to a third of the bank’s fee income in any quarter.



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HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis retail loan recast thrice corporate ones, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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It was not corporates but retail borrowers who rushed to avail the debt recast scheme announced by the Reserve Bank of India to alleviate pandemic stress last year.

Retail loan restructuring by top three private banks, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, at Rs 6,600 crore, was three times the Rs 2,100 crore restructured loans by corporates, according to a report.

However, while the retail loan restructuring ended by March 31, corporate loan recasts are allowed till June end.

Fresh concerns

With a fresh surge in Covid infections and subsequent lockdowns, lenders are staring at renewed stress in loan accounts.

Sameer Narang, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, recently told ETBFSI that the salaried segment is still alright but the informal sector will be impacted. “Banks may not be that impacted as banks do not cater the informal sector in a big way as NBFCs does. There will be an impact on NBFCs, and they would require some degree of support. It also depends upon the pace of the second wave. We should wait and see how things pan out. If it is a phenomenon for 6-8 weeks then most of the segments will ride it over. If it lasts longer then this might be an issue for segments. It is very difficult to create a policy in an uncertain environment.”

Asset quality

HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis retail loan recast thrice corporate ones

Ratings agency Icra too had raised concerns over the asset quality of retail loans.

The rising Covid cases have again raised concerns on the asset quality of retail loans from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs), according to investment information agency ICRA.

The restrictions on movement will have a bearing on the collection efforts of NBFCs especially for microfinance loans where cash collections still remain dominant, it said in a report.

Commercial vehicle loans can also face stress if the inter-state restrictions are re-imposed, though even the current restrictions put in place in key geographies like Maharashtra and Delhi where non-essential services are closed will lead to lower fleet utilisation for operators.

However, said ICRA, housing loans are expected to remain most resilient as was seen even last year given the secured nature of asset class and priority given by borrowers to repay them.

No relief measures

Banks, which got protection and support by a swift moratorium on loans when the pandemic first struck, have no such cover this time.

As the second wave intensifies, most of the relief measures and schemes announced by the government and Reserve Bank of India have expired. On top of it, the central bank is non-committal on moratoriums.
“In today’s conditions, there is no need for a moratorium,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had said after the central bank’s monetary policy review.

Also, a spike in overdue loans after the lifting of the moratorium has been worrying analysts.

“The level of loans in overdue categories has increased after the moratorium has been lifted and the impact on asset quality will be spread over FY2021 and FY2022 as various interventions and relief measures have prevented a large one-time hit on profitability and capital of banks,” Icra said in a report.

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Bank lending activity now stronger than last year; credit growth at 6.6% in February

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The credit growth of banks ranged between 6.5% to 7.2% in April 2020.

Banks gave out credit at a faster rate during the fortnight ending February 12, as compared to the same period last year, helped by an increase in retail loans. The bank credit growth was recorded at 6.6%, marginally higher from the 6.4% recorded last year, a report by CARE Ratings showed. With this, the credit growth is back in the range that was last seen during the early months of the pandemic. The credit growth of banks ranged between 6.5% to 7.2% in April 2020.

Bank credit growth strong

Bank credit during the fortnight ended February 12 stood at Rs 107 lakh crore, up from Rs 105 lakh crore at the end of December 2021 but at par with the previous fortnight ending January 29. “The retail, agriculture and allied segment have driven overall credit growth in January 2021 growing by 6.7% and 9.5% respectively,” the report showed. The retail segment accounted for 29% of the total credit, against the 28.1% share recorded in the year-ago period. Industrial segment, however, had the largest piece of the pie accounting for 29.6% of the total credit. The services sector accounted for 28% of the total.

“Trade and tourism, hotels and restaurant segment registered a (credit) growth of 15.7% and 8.9% respectively,” the report said. The professional services segment registered a de-growth of 25%, computer software segment too registered de-growth, making them the only two segment to slip.

Mutual fund redemptions aid deposit growth

Deposits with banks have also increased during the period under review. “Deposit growth increased during the fortnight ended February 12, 2021, compared with 11.1% growth registered during the fortnight ended January 29, 2021, and also as compared with the previous year,” CARE Ratings said. The report further added that the outflows in debt mutual fund and equity mutual fund could support the rise in bank deposits. Of these deposits, time deposits grew at 89% while demand deposits account for the remaining 11%.

With deposit growth outpacing credit growth in the banking system, liquidity remained in a surplus position. “The outstanding liquidity in the banking system as of February 26 aggregated Rs 6 lakh crore, higher than a month ago level of Rs 5.76 lakh crore,” the report said.

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