Q1 GDP growth seen at new high on recovery, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: The April-June GDP growth could turn out to be a record quarterly expansion as the economy recovers from the second wave of the pandemic and benefits from the low base of last year.

The country’s statistics office will release the quarterly GDP data on Tuesday and various estimates show that it could range from 10.5% to 31.6%, while the median forecasts of two polls show it at 20% and 21% in April-June, the first quarter in the 2021-22 fiscal year. The RBI had estimated the first quarter growth to be 21.4%. To put the numbers in perspective, the April-June quarter of last year had posted the sharpest contraction on record of 24.4% due to the impact of one of the strictest lockdowns imposed to prevent the spread of Covid.

“Essentially we are looking at a very strong doubledigit growth of 23% for this quarter and likely higher than RBI’s own assessment. A large part of this is because of a very favourable base from last year, when the nationwide lockdown had almost brought the economy to a standstill,” said Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research.

“But nevertheless I think this double-digit growth is more of optics than anything else because we need to keep in mind that this was also the quarter when the second wave of the pandemic was extremely ferocious and April and May saw a large number of states getting into piecemeal restrictions, which by the end of May had almost become like a nationwide lockdown, though in a very staggered fashion at the state level,” said Singhal.

Since the April-June quarter of last year, the economy started scripting a robust recovery, but the second wave of the pandemic stalled the process. The unlocking and government spending has helped revive the recovery.

Economists say growth in the first quarter would be led by manufacturing, mining and construction sectors, while the agri segment will also lend strong support. The laggard will be the services sector, which has been hit hard by the two consecutive waves of the pandemic and is yet to recover from the bruising impact. The pace of vaccination, which has gathered momentum now, will also play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of growth in the quarters ahead.

“I think it would be a more broad-based story in the second half of the year unlike now where industry is leading the pack compared to services,” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.



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RBI issues direction on compensation of private banks’ top officials, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The RBI said on Monday the fair value of the share-linked incentives paid to chief executive officers, whole-time directors and other key functionaries by the private banks should be recognised as an expense during the relevant accounting period. The RBI has also asked all banks, including local area banks, small finance banks and foreign banks to comply with its directions for all share-linked instruments granted after the accounting period ending March 31, 2021.

The central bank had issued guidelines on the compensation of whole-time directors/ chief executive officers/ material risk takers and control function staff in November 2019.

Issuing a clarification in this regard, the RBI said, “the fair value (of share-linked incentives) …should be recognised as expense beginning with the accounting period for which approval has been granted”.

In terms of the extant guidelines, share-linked instruments are required to be fairly valued on the date of grant using the Black-Scholes model.

The RBI issued the clarification saying “it has been observed” that banks do not recognise grants of the share-linked compensation as an expense in their books of account concurrently.



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Depositors of stressed banks to get up to Rs five lakh back from November 30, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Depositors of stressed banks like Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank are now set to get up to Rs 5 lakh back from November 30 as the government has notified the amendment to the DICGC Act. Parliament earlier this month passed the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (Amendment) Bill, 2021 ensuring that account holders get up to Rs 5 lakh within 90 days of the RBI imposing moratorium on the banks.

The amount of Rs 5 lakh would be provided by the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC).

The government has notified September 1, 2021 as the date on which the provisions of the Act shall come into force, according to a gazette notification dated August 27, 2021.

“In exercise of the powers conferred by sub-section (2) of section 1 of the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (Amendment) Act, 2021 (30 of 2021), the Central Government hereby appoints the 1st day of September, 2021, as the date on which the provisions of the said Act shall come into force,” it said.

Consequently, 90 days from the effective date is November 30, 2021 for depositors to get their funds back.

The first 45 days are meant for the bank, which has come under stress, to collect all the details of the accounts where the claims will have to be made. This will then be forwarded to the insurance company, which in real-time will check it all up, and nearer the 90th day, depositors will get the money, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said.

The benefit will also accrue to the depositors of 23 cooperative banks which are in financial stress and on which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has imposed certain restrictions.

DICGC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the RBI, provides insurance cover on bank deposits.

At present, it takes 8-10 years for the depositors of a stressed bank to get their insured money and other claims.

Though the RBI and the Centre keep monitoring the health of all banks, there have been numerous recent cases of lenders, especially cooperative banks, being unable to fulfil their obligations towards the depositors due to the imposition of a moratorium by the RBI.

Last year, the government increased the insurance cover on deposits by five times to Rs 5 lakh. The enhanced deposit insurance cover of Rs 5 lakh came into effect from February 4, 2020.

Every bank used to pay 10 paise as an insurance premium per Rs 100 of deposit.



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RBI more convinced about transient inflation than others, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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With the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England hinting at normalisation, factoring in a more enduring nature of the ‘transient’ high inflation, RBI’s statement appears more dovish in comparison. If indeed the duration of high inflation is longer, RBI may need to re-think its GSAP purchases and start normalising the extant liquidity deluge, which has risen to 5.4 per cent of banks deposits.

Possibly, the enlargement of variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions is a precursor to such a scenario. The litmus test for how transient the inflation spike is lies in the resolution of global supply chain issues, particularly in developed economies, which explains a significant part of high prevailing inflation.

‘Inert’ growth weighs: RBI’s policy announcement on Friday, while keeping policy rates unchanged (reverse repo rate at 3.35 per cent and repo rate at 4 per cent), remains weighed by growth-revival imperatives, which are still ‘nascent and hesitant’ in the context of the impact of Covid Wave 2 as well as potential future waves. The demand condition is seen as inert despite normalisation from the impact of Wave 2 and improved 12-month-forward consumer sentiment.

While corporate performance has been good over the past 12 months, investment demand is anaemic. Pricing power in the manufacturing sector is feeble amid rising raw material costs and rising global commodity prices are a risk to growth outlook.

Pre-emptive action can kill the nascent revival: Given growth concerns, RBI has chosen to look through the recent spike in headline CPI inflation (reached 6.3 per cent in June 2021) as it is seen as transient, driven by supply sided factors, elevate domestic fuel taxes, elevated logistics costs, and high global commodity prices. Initiating pre-emptive normalisation of the ultra-easy monetary policy stance based in near-term spikes in inflation could “kill the nascent and hesitant” growth revival.

RBI scales up inflation projection even as growth to in 2HFY22: Overall, RBI has retained real GDP growth projection for FY22 at 9.5 per cent, based on its earlier scaled-down expectation and largely driven by a favourable base effect. The terminal quarter growth is being seen at 6.1 per cent, in Q4FY22, declining from 21.4 per cent in Q1.

The inflation trajectory has been scaled up to an average of 5.7 per cent for FY22, up 70bp from earlier. Importantly, the terminal quarter inflation is being seen higher at 5.9 per cent, accompanying growth deceleration, reflecting the impact of cost-led inflation on growth. The 4 per cent inflation target is now meant to be achieved over 2-3 years.

Easy financial condition the top priority: Thus, RBI’s stance to sustaining its monetary accommodation reflects its prioritisation of comfortable financial and liquidity conditions. Despite the higher projected inflation, central banks have allowed the banking system’s excess liquidity to remain extremely high. The LAF balance has increased further to Rs 8.5 lakh crore, or 5.4 per cent of bank deposits (Aug 4, 2021), up from the daily average of Rs 5.7 lakh crore in June, 2021. The GSAP purchase of G-sec by RBI is slated to continue (Rs 25,000 crore each on Aug 12 and 24, 2021). The only visible change is the progressive expansion of fortnightly auctions of the variable reverse repo rate (VRRR), rising to Rs 4 lakh crore by end-Sept 2021.

Liquidity support extended: Unlike earlier statements, no additional regulatory measures were announced this time. In light of the impact of Covid Wave 2, liquidity support under the TLTRO window has been extended until Dec 31, 2021. Likewise, the liquidity access potential for banks by dipping into SLR holdings of the G-Sec has also been extended. The resolution framework for stressed accounts that provides resolution based on identified financial performance until March 2022 has been extended to October, 2022. Thus, the liquidity support as an essential tool to ensure systemic financial stability is also maintained.

RBI more dovish than others: RBI’s “whatever it takes” stance crucially hinges on its assumption that the inflation spike will be transient, aligning the views of other central banks including the US Fed and UK’s BoE. Even so, the UK’s BoE has scaled up its inflation forecast by a huge 150bp to 4 per cent by end-2021, which implies that the transitory phase of high inflation will be longer than previously imagined.

Hence, “some modest tightening of monetary policy is likely to be necessary” over the next 2 years to keep inflation under control, as per the BoE. A similar view was expressed earlier by US Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Thus, with the US Fed and BoK indicating QE tapering, RBI’s stance of continuing with GSAP is more dovish. If indeed the duration of high inflation is longer, the RBI may need to think about reducing GSAP purchases and start normalising the liquidity deluge; the distortion created that it is creating in short-term money market rates is cannibalizing bank loan demand Possibly, the enlarged of VRRR auction of Rs 4 lakh crore is a precursor to lower GSAP.



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Regulatory bite gets sharper for banks and non-banks

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The regulatory bite is getting sharper for regulated entities (REs), including banks and non-banks, with business restrictions being imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on those not complying with its regulations, going by its recent actions. Recalcitrant REs will have to banish the thought of getting off lightly by just paying monetary penalties.

Business restriction can prove to be a more potent tool to make a non-compliant RE fall in line with regulations vis-a-vis monetary penalty as it will hurt the RE more.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in an interaction with BusinessLine, emphasised that supervision of regulated entities has been tightened.

“And for the first time, we are not confining ourselves to monetary penalty (for regulatory violations). We are also imposing business restrictions. Some ₹1 crore monetary penalty here, ₹2 crore there, how does it matter? So, we are entering into business restrictions. We are answerable to the public,” he said.

Also see: Monetary penalty imposed on five payment system operators

Imposition on UCBs

Das likened the business restrictions on banks and non-banks to All Inclusive Directions (AID) imposed by the RBI on some of the urban co-operative banks (UCBs). AID is imposed on UCBs to arrest further deterioration in their financial health and protect depositors’ interest.

“In the case of co-operative banks, once we impose AID, business restrictions are put – they will not accept fresh deposits and cannot grant or renew any loans and advances.

“All those business restrictions, which were earlier confined only to co-operative banks, we are now using it for other entities also. So, this really helps in the enforcement action,” explained Das.

Business restrictions

Last December, RBI directed HDFC Bank to temporarily halt sourcing of new credit card customers as well as launches of digital business generating activities planned under its proposed programme Digital 2.0. However, in a major relief for the private sector bank, the central bank partially lifted the ban, allowing it to issue new credit cards.

RBI barred Mastercard from acquiring new customers (debit, credit or prepaid) from July 22 for not complying with data localisation requirements.

According to RBI’s latest annual report, during the July 2020-March 2021 period, it took enforcement action against 54 REs and imposed an aggregate penalty of ₹19.41 crore for non-compliance with provisions/contravention of certain directions issued by it from time to time through various circulars.

Since April 1, 2015, 52 UCBs (up to December 11, 2020) have been placed under AID by RBI, per the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2019-20.

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RBI issues Master Directions on Prepaid Payment Instruments

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The Reserve Bank of India on Friday issued Master Directions on Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) with fresh classification of the instruments.

“Keeping in view the recent updates to PPI guidelines, it has been decided to issue the Master Directions afresh,” the RBI said.

No entity can set up and operate payment systems for PPIs without prior approval or authorisation of the RBI, it stated.

The master directions classify PPIs in two categories – small PPIs and full KYC PPIs. They were earlier classified as closed systems, semi-closed systems and open system PPIs.

“Small PPIs: Issued by banks and non-banks after obtaining minimum details of the PPI holder. They shall be used only for purchase of goods and services. Funds transfer or cash withdrawal from such PPIs shall not be permitted,” the RBI said.

PPI Classification

Small PPIs can have cash upto ₹10,000 loaded per month, not exceeding ₹1.2 lakh in a year.

Full-KYC PPIs will be issued by banks and non-banks after completing Know Your Customer (KYC) of the PPI holder.

“These PPIs shall be used for the purchase of goods and services, funds transfer or cash withdrawal,” it further said, adding that the amount outstanding shall not exceed ₹2 lakh at any point of time.

The RBI has also said that PPI issuer shall have a board-approved policy for PPI interoperability.

Where PPIs are issued in the form of wallets, interoperability across PPIs should be enabled through UPI. Where PPIs are issued in the form of cards (physical or virtual), the cards should be affiliated to the authorised card networks, it said.

PPI for mass transit systems should remain exempted from interoperability, while Gift PPI issuers (both banks and non-banks) have the option to offer interoperability.

“Interoperability shall be mandatory on the acceptance side as well. QR codes in all modes shall be interoperable by March 31, 2022,” it further said.

The RBI has also said the PPI issuer shall put in place a formal, publicly disclosed customer grievance redressal framework, including designating a nodal officer to handle customer complaints or grievances, the escalation matrix and turn-around-times for complaint resolution.

In the case of PPIs issued by banks and non-banks, customers shall have recourse to the Banking Ombudsman Scheme and Ombudsman Scheme for Digital Transactions respectively for grievance redressal.

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Indo-Nepal Remittance: RBI enhances per transaction ceiling 4-fold to ₹2 lakh

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The Reserve Bank of India has made enhancements to the Indo-Nepal Remittance Facility Scheme, whereby the ceiling per transaction has been increased four-fold to ₹2 lakh and the cap of 12 remittances in a year per remitter has been removed.

The aforementioned enhancements, which come into effect from October 1, have been announced to boost trade payments between the two countries, as also to facilitate person-to-person remittances electronically to Nepal, RBI said in a circular to all Banks participating in the National Electronic Funds Transfer facility.

Under the scheme, the beneficiary receives funds in Nepalese Rupees through credit to her / his bank account maintained with the subsidiary of State Bank of India in Nepal, — Nepal SBI Bank Limited (NSBL) or through an agency arrangement.

The central bank said as hitherto, banks shall accept remittances by way of cash from walk-in customers or non-customers. The ceiling of ₹50,000 per remittance with a maximum of 12 remittances in a year shall, however, continue to apply for such remittances.

The central bank asked banks to put in place suitable velocity checks and other risk mitigation procedures.

Thje RBI emphasised that “the enhancements are also expected to facilitate payments relating to retirement, pension, etc., to our ex-servicemen who have settled / relocated in Nepal.”

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How safe deposit lockers have become safer

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Following the Supreme Court’s directions in February 2021, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently came up with revised instructions for safe deposit locker services being offered by banks. The amended guidelines, which supersede the instructions issued in this regard in 2007, creates liability on banks, which now cannot claim ignorance of a locker’s contents.

The revised instructions will come into force with effect from January 1, 2022 and will be applicable to both new and existing lockers. In light of the proposed changes, we help you understand how safe deposit locker services work.

What is the big change in the latest RBI guidelines vs the 2007 instructions?

The apex court, in February 2021, observed that banks cannot leave the customers in the lurch on loss of/damage to content merely by claiming ignorance of the contents of the lockers. Thus, the new RBI guidelines create a liability on banks under certain circumstances.

When there is loss of contents due to theft, fire, damage to building, negligence or due to fraud committed by its employee(s), the bank will be liable be for an amount equivalent to one hundred times the prevailing annual rent of the safe deposit locker.

However, note that the bank shall not be liable for any damage and/or loss of contents of locker arising from natural calamities or Acts of God such as earthquake, floods, lightning and thunderstorm or any act that is attributable to the sole fault or negligence of the customer. Banks are just expected to exercise appropriate care to their locker systems to protect their premises from such catastrophes.

Further, the new guidelines specifically mentioned that banks cannot, directly or indirectly, offer any insurance product to its customers for insurance of locker contents. Be aware that banks do not keep a record of the contents of the locker, and thus they would not be under any liability to insure the contents of the locker against any risk.

What if I don’t pay the locker rent?

Banks have the discretion to break open any locker following due procedure if the rent has not been paid by the customer for three years in a row.

The new RBI guidelines are vocal about this too following the February 2021 SC judgement that the customers have to be informed before a bank breaks open a locker.

As per the new instructions, the bank shall ensure that it notifies the existing locker-hirer prior to any changes in the allotment and give him/her reasonable opportunity to withdraw the articles deposited by him/her.

After breaking open of locker, the contents shall be kept in sealed envelope with detailed inventory until the customer claims it.

While returning the contents of the locker, the bank shall obtain acknowledgement of the customer on the inventory list to avoid any dispute in future.

Who can get a locker and how does locker allotment work?

You can get a safe-locker facility for your precious belongings (except illegal or any hazardous substance), if you are a KYC-compliant customer with a bank. Even if there is no prior relationship with the bank, you may be given the facility subject to KYC compliance.

Banks must maintain a branch-wise list of vacant lockers, as per the new guidelines. SBI Bank seems to have already offering this service.

One can access SBI’s online locker enquiry at https://tinyurl.com/sbilocker, based on selection of state, district and pin code.

To ensure transparency, banks acknowledge all applications received for allotment of locker and give a wait list number, if there is no availability. At the time of allotment of the locker, the bank will enter into an agreement with the customer on a stamped paper.

As per the current guidelines, banks shall display the model locker agreement on the their website along with all the terms & conditions and the standard operating procedures (SOPs) on various aspects for public viewing.

Can the bank ask me for a term-deposit to avail locker services?

Banks are allowed to obtain a term-deposit, at the time of allotment, to ensure prompt payment of locker rent. Note that the term-deposit requested by banks cannot exceed three years’ rent and the charges for breaking open the locker in case of such eventuality. Banks, however, cannot insist on such term deposits from the existing locker holders or those who have a satisfactory operative account.

Is there a nomination facility for locker services?

Yes. The banks shall offer nomination facility in case of safe deposit lockers as well. You may have to go through the bank’s policy to understand the policy for nomination and protection against notice of claims of other persons. To avoid inconvenience and undue hardship to legal heirs or the claimant, the new guidelines by RBI mentioned the time limit before which settlement of claims to be made to nominee in respect of deceased. It says that the claims are to be settled within a period not exceeding 15 days from the date of receipt of the claim, provided, proof of death of the depositor and suitable identification of the claimant(s) with reference to nomination are submitted.

How secure will my belongings be?

Banks are liable to exercise due care and necessary precaution for the protection of the lockers provided to the customer. The new guidelines further stress on this point as the RBI specifically ask banks to take required steps to ensure that the area in which the locker facility is housed is properly secured to prevent break-ins as well as damage from rain or fire.

In case any customer has complained to the bank that his/her locker is opened without her authority, or any theft or security breach is noticed/observed, the bank is also liable to preserve the CCTV recording till the police investigation is completed and the dispute is settled.

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Raghuram Rajan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The onus of promoting sustainable investments should lie with governments and not central banks, which already have significant other policy commitments, said Raghuram Rajan, former Reserve Bank of India governor.

Central banks should steer clear of politically-driven unlegislated areas such as “green” investments, as their mandates of providing financial and monetary stability are already quite wide, Rajan told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Wednesday.

“Asking the central bank to say you should buy only green bonds, not brown bonds, etc., is asking the central bank to impose its own views on something which is primarily a fiscal matter,” he said.

Rajan, who earlier served as chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, said central banks should instead turn their focus to the financial stability of these green investments and other threats such as crypto currencies and cyber security.

Crypto currencies have a “potential future,” particularly well-regulated stablecoins, Rajan said, but it wasn’t clear what fundamentals were backing their valuations other than a “heady environment,” with easy monetary policy fuelling all asset prices.

Cryptos won’t be “your last resort” in a doomsday scenario, he said. “I would be much more confident about the value of these cryptos once they find proper use cases,” such as an effective means of payment, especially in cross-border transactions.

ON TRACK
Rajan, who is professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, did not expect markets to react in a 2013-style “taper tantrum” as the U.S. Federal Reserve unveils its plan to withdraw stimulus, which he said was unlikely to happen at Jackson Hole on Friday.

“Ideally, the Fed would like to observe as long as possible, (and) … make sure that the economy is well on track towards growth, he said. “Of course, the problem is the Delta variant, plus whatever variants are lurking in the background.”

He expected inflationary pressures in the United States to be transitory, but said prices may remain elevated for longer than expected due to strong wages, unavailability of workers, and additional fiscal stimulus measures.

“Firms are feeling confident enough to pass through price increase … they don’t do that until they think that these higher prices are to stay,” Rajan said.

Referring to India, Rajan said inflation there could rise in the short term as pent-up demand takes hold, resulting in supply-side bottlenecks, but demand will fall over the medium-term due to stressed households and economic scarring from the pandemic.

Central banks in many emerging countries are being proactive and raising interest rates, Rajan said.

“Now, obviously, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) is watching the data and it will make the decision when it when it has to make it.”



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RBI, small finance bank chiefs take stock of stress build-up due to Covid

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The stress build-up due to Covid-19 and the mitigation measures for continued resilience of books figured prominently in the discussions between Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the chiefs of 11 small finance banks (SFBs) on Friday.

This comes even as SFBs continue to have significant exposure to unsecured advances even as they strive to diversify their portfolio.

Per the RBI’s Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, SFBs have smaller low-cost current and saving account (CASA) deposit bases.

While the prevailing easy liquidity conditions facilitate borrowings and refinance on which they rely, SFBs may need to focus on their bottomlines as and when financial conditions tighten, the report cautioned.

Also read: RBI hikes incentives for distribution of coins

Furthermore, risk absorption cushion in the form of provision coverage ratio (PCR) is low in some SFBs, impacting their ability to withstand adverse shocks.

Diverse themes discussed

RBI, in a statement, said discussions were carried out across a range of themes such as evolution of the business models of SFBs; enhancing Board oversight and professionalism; further improvements in assurance functions — compliance; internal control and risk management.

The meeting also focussed on the need to build up their IT infrastructure both for enhanced customer experience and for cyber security resilience, etc.

Challenges and the way forward were also deliberated upon so that SFBs continue to be important players in the Indian financial intermediation space and contribute in the financial inclusion journey of the nation.

RBI Deputy Governors MK Jain and M Rajeshwar Rao recognised the contribution of SFBs towards financial inclusion by extending credit and reaching out to the underserved sections of society, the RBI statement said.

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