Auto debit bounce rates drop in Oct to pre-Covid levels, may fall further in festive season, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Auto-debit payment bounce rates have dropped to near pre-Covid levels in October in tandem with the opening up of the economy as the pandemic retreated.Of the 86.6 million transactions initiated in October, 27 million transactions, or 31.24 per cent, failed, while 59.52 million were successful, according to the NACH data.
In value terms, 24.83 per cent of the transactions declined in October — the lowest since January 2020.

Volume-wise, the bounce rates were at similar levels seen during pre-Covid wave months of January and February of 2020, and by value, 260 basis points (bps) better than January-March 2021 period, which was the best quarter last year in terms of recovery for the economy.

Improvement over September

On a month-on-month basis, bounce rates have declined 50-60 bps by volume/value. Bounce rates were 31.7% and 25.4% by volume and value, respectively, for September. In August, these figures were at 33% and 26.8% by volume and value, respectively, while in July they were 33.2% and 27.4% by volume and value.

Despite the steady improvement, bounce rates continued to remain above the average levels of 2019. The current bounce rates by value are nearly 300 basis points higher than pre-Covid levels. Most banks and non-bank lenders have reported an increase in fresh disbursements and improvement in collections continues to remain their top priority.

Collection efficiencies

Collection efficiency improved in the September quarter, though slippages have been high in the retail and MSME segment the quantum is likely to have moderated sequentially, keeping asset quality in check, according to analysts.

Typically, auto-debit transactions are for recurring payments such as EMIs and insurance premiums although it does not capture intra-bank transactions. With the second wave of the pandemic leading to localised lockdowns and impacting economic activities, bounce rates had started to climb up from April 2021 after easing from December 2020.

In the last two months, as Covid cases have come down in most parts of the country and the economy has opened up again, bounce rates have started coming down again. Many lenders have reported that collection efficiencies have returned to normal and are at the pre-second wave levels.

Asset quality recovery

Non-bank lenders and housing finance companies, which suffered during the first quarter of this fiscal, are likely to report a steady recovery in asset quality and demand for fresh loans along with improved payment collections in the September quarter.

“The first quarter of fiscal 2022 was impacted by the second Covid wave. Relative to 1QFY22, we expect disbursement volumes of 170-230% for most Affordable Housing/Vehicle Financiers. Impact on AUM growth is likely to be higher for short duration products like Vehicle loans as collections held up well in 2QFY22,” Motilal Oswal Securities said in a note.

For vehicle financiers, or MFIs, the collection efficiencies are likely to be in the 90-100% range. After the high levels of restructuring witnessed in 1Q, a relatively lower incremental restructuring is likely in the second quarter.



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wgc: India’s gold demand could jump in Q4 on festivals, pent-up purchases

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MUMBAI – India‘s gold demand could strengthen significantly in the fourth quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday, with a drop in global prices and the release of pent-up demand expected to lift jewellery sales during the peak festive season.

Higher demand from the world’s second-biggest gold consumer could help support spot prices after a near 5% correction so far this year, but a rise in imports of the metal would widen India’s trade deficit and weigh on the rupee.

“The fourth quarter is likely to be one of the best quarters in recent years. Pent-up demand, softening of gold prices and weddings will drive the demand,” Somasundaram PR, regional chief executive officer of WGC’s Indian operations, told Reuters.

Demand for the precious metal usually spikes towards the end of the year in India, as buying gold for weddings and major festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra is considered auspicious.

Demand for the precious metal usually spikes towards the end of the year in India, as buying gold for weddings and major festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra is considered auspicious.

Indians celebrated Dussehra earlier this month and anecdotal feedback from manufacturers indicated strong sales, he said.

The pick-up in retail demand gave confidence to manufacturers, and imports in the September quarter jumped 187% from a year ago to 255.6 tonnes, he said.

In a report published on Thursday, the WGC said gold demand jumped 47% in the third quarter from a year earlier to 139.1 tonnes as jewellery demand surged 58% to 96.2 tonnes.

Demand for coins and bars – known as investment demand – rose 27% in the same period to 42.9 tonnes as investors increased hedging amid a stock market rally, the WGC said.
Somasundaram did not provide a demand estimate for 2021, but said demand could be better than 2019’s 690.4 tonnes and well above 2020’s 446.6 tonnes.

“With restrictions being gradually lifted across the country, retail demand is bouncing back to pre-Covid levels. With the upcoming festive and wedding season, there is all the more enthusiasm towards gold demand,” he said.



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‘In Q4, we are looking at growing the business, but methodically’

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The micro-finance sector is showing signs of improvement barring some lagging areas and customer sets. However, there is demand for credit, said Nitin Chugh, Managing Director and CEO, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. In an interview with BusinessLine, he also spoke on the new products the bank is working on and discussed the third quarter results. Excerpts:

How is the micro-finance sector doing now?

In general things have improved, which is coming up in the collection efficiency of 94 per cent to 95 per cent. We had reported in our second quarter results that we have problems in Maharashtra, Punjab, and West Bengal, and haven’t come back to the pre-Covid level. In Assam, while things were improving, we have had a setback in January due to the loan waiver announcement by political parties, and (that) has resulted in 9 per cent drop in collection efficiency (during the month).

Even in customer segments, there is some divergence. Customers with general stores, and dairy were able to come back rather quickly. Those in small-scale manufacturing are taking longer to come back. Customers like housemaids, drivers, restaurant staff and mall workers were impacted for a much longer time.

Also read: Ujjivan SFB reports net loss of ₹279 cr in Q3

How has the restructuring process been?

You can’t expect or even plan for such things. The moratorium got over on August 31, 2020. September was the first month when customers started making payments. We had a collection efficiency of 83 per cent for payments, which improved to 88 per cent in October. But there are customers who are finding it difficult to pay after the moratorium got over. The whole estimation process started from October; we started talking to customers and did a full detailed survey. We spent December holding individual conversations and completing the whole process.

How is credit demand? You have reported strong disbursement in the third quarter.

Credit demand has started to come back as people started going back to their livelihoods.

Disbursement is even stronger in January. Demand is from all across. We did our highest ever in January in the affordable housing business. In MSME also, we did our ever highest in January. In micro-banking, we are back to pre-Covid level and exactly what we were in January 2020. In fact, in December 2020, we did even better than December 2019 in micro-finance. Likewise in vehicle finance. In the fourth quarter, we are looking at growing the business now but doing it methodically with the appetite for risk that we have.

You are working on gold loans…?

We are still learning the business. We are in pilot stage right now. We started in October with five branches, all of them in Bangalore. The first two months were not very remarkable as we were trying to do this more through word of mouth. We will launch it at scale in the next fiscal year. It is an unmet demand of our customers.

Also read: Assam MFI Bill may hit collections in short term

Any other new areas of lending?

In vehicle finance, we are testing MMCV (micro and mini commercial vehicle) loans. We are likely to make an entry into that segment. We were also evaluating the used car segments but with the Budget announcements on voluntary scrapping policy, we need to do some rethink on that. The segment of customers we deal with, they usually buy five- to seven-year-old vehicles and they buy them for a long period of time.

We are also looking to introduce credit cards in the next financial year. We have a substantially large base of retail, non-micro-finance customers. We have a large base with close to a million customers and the demand for these products is coming from them. We will also look at any other relevant product. Also, maybe lockers in a few of our branches.

Are you worried about stress on your books?

Now, we are not. We have taken all provisions upfront in the third quarter. Stress is emerging right now, the NPAs are at a standstill. We already had a cover on our books of 4.1 per cent to 4.2 per cent in the last quarter. It wasn’t that we were not adequately covered, we had taken provisions in the last three quarters also. We took the decision to upfront everything. Let us not live with any uncertainty and not worry about future credit loss, so that we can focus on growth.

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