World shares dip as China growth disappoints, oil extends rally, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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World shares dipped on Monday after data showed slower-than-expected growth in China’s economy last quarter and surging oil prices fed inflation concerns.

Calls by China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday to make progress on a long-awaited property tax to help reduce wealth gaps also soured the mood.

An MSCI gauge of global stocks eased 0.2% by 1207 GMT as losses in Asia and Europe erased part of the gains seen last week on a strong start to the earnings season.

U.S. stock futures were also lower with S&P 500 and Nasdaq e-minis both down 0.3%.

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.9% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, its weakest pace since the third quarter of 2020.

The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with power shortages, supply bottlenecks, sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks and debt problems in its property sector.

Oil prices extended a recent rally amid a global energy shortage with U.S. crude touching a seven-year high and Brent a three-year peak.

Europe’s STOXX 600 equity benchmark index fell 0.7%, dragged by luxury stocks, which are heavily exposed to China, and some poor earning updates. [.EU]

Chinese blue chips fell 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.1%.

“The Chinese economy grew slower in the third quarter, mainly because of policy challenges and high base effects from last year,” said Iris Pang, economist at Dutch bank ING.

“We expect these two factors will continue to be in play for the fourth quarter, which means the slow growth of the Chinese economy will continue,” she added.

Investors also continued to worry about global inflation, which was being driven by the reopening of many economies after COVID-19 restrictions and supply chain issues, and prospects central banks will tighten policy sooner rather than later.

Kevin Boscher, CIO of Ravenscroft, said given the current climate they held more cash than usual in their portfolios.

“We remain optimistic on the longer-term outlook, but expect this volatility and uncertainty to persist for the next few weeks as we await more clarity on the outlook for global growth, inflation, China, U.S. policy and the Fed,” he said.

“For now, it makes sense to stay reasonably defensively positioned but I expect markets to eventually ‘climb the wall of worry’,” he added.

On Monday, data showed New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 2.2% in the third quarter, its biggest rise in over a decade, causing the local dollar to jump as much as 0.5% before changing course.

Some other currencies are also responding to rising inflation expectations, as investors increasingly bet central banks will have to raise rates.

The dollar rose 0.1% against a basket of peers to 94.04, in sight of a one-year high hit last Monday, as traders position themselves for a looming tapering of the Federal Reserve’s massive bond buying programme.

Sterling fell 0.1% against a stronger dollar but touched a 20-month high versus the euro after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey sent a fresh signal over the weekend that the central bank is gearing up to raise interest rates as inflation risks mount.

The yen meanwhile traded near its lowest in nearly three years against the dollar, as the Japanese central bank looked increasingly likely to trail behind other monetary authorities in terms of rate hikes.

On debt markets, global repricing of interest rate expectations pushed euro zone bond yields back towards recent multi-month highs. Germany’s 10-year Bund yields, the benchmark for the region, was up 3 basis points at -0.139%.

High energy costs are driving some of the inflation fears and Brent crude was last up 1% at $85.7 per barrel and U.S. crude up 1.3% to $83.6.

Gold fell 0.3% at $1,761 an ounce, after falling 1.5% on Friday as upbeat retail sales drove U.S. bond yields higher.

Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $60,747. It gained last week on hopes that U.S. regulators would allow a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund to trade.

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni and Alun John; editing by Jason Neely, William Maclean)



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Why controlling inflation is not the job of the RBI Governor alone, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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In 2021, the focus of policymakers across the globe is to not just recover and sustain growth but also to ensure price stability. Not only emerging economies, but even developed economies are dealing with price pressure. The rising inflation rate has prevented many economies from announcing further stimulus measures. Central banks in some countries have gone for a rate hike even when their own economies have not fully recovered from the pandemic-induced economic crisis.

One of the major contributors for the overall rise in inflation is the surge in commodity prices. Within commodities, rising crude oil prices has burdened oil importing countries including India. In July, India imported $12.89 billion worth of petroleum crude & products (POL). And, in the same month, POL accounted for a share of 27.7 percent of the total imports to the country.

In India, inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is used as RBI’s monetary policy anchor. Within CPI, fuel and light account for a share of 6.84 per cent. Though the share of fuel in the CPI basket is less than 10 per cent, crude prices have a huge impact on the overall inflation rate. Higher fuel prices have a ripple effect on other commodities. Crude oil is used as a raw material in various sectors, with petrol/diesel used in transportation of goods. When the cost of production goes up, it will be passed on to consumers.

In the current situation, higher prices for goods and services is an additional burden on both the consumers and producers. The Indian economy is still in a nascent stage of recovery. An economy in the recovery stage won’t be able to tolerate a higher inflation rate. Inflation rate in July has cooled off to 5.59 per cent, within the upper tolerance band of 6 per cent. However, we need to closely watch how inflation figures would turn out in the coming months. The fall in the overall inflation rate has been mainly contributed by the decline in food prices. Food inflation declined to 3.96 per cent YoY in July’21 from 5.15 per cent in June’21. Yet, during the same period, fuel and light inflation registered only a marginal decline to 12.4 per cent from 12.6 per cent.

At this juncture, both the central and state governments should consider ways to reduce the burden arising from increasing fuel prices. The RBI Governor has explicitly stated on many occasions the need for coordinated action between the Centre and states on tax reduction on fuel prices. Presently, the central government levies an excise duty of Rs 32.9 per litre on petrol while the VAT levied by state governments vary. A reduction in the excise duty and VAT could lead to an increase in disposable income in the hands of the common man. This, in turn, could improve consumer sentiments and prevent the heating up of the economy.

In India, controlling the inflation rate is not just the RBI’s job. The factors contributing to rising inflation in the country calls for a concerted effort from the central bank and Centre/state governments.



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