Rajat Sharma, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The only thing I have done for a few of my client portfolios is that we have not sold off a lot of equity positions, but we purchased put options for the month ending January, says Rajat Sharma, CEO, Sana Securities.

Whether it is Tata Group, Birla Group, Indiabulls, or Reliance, all have done a lot of deleveraging during the Covid period. They got plenty of cost savings, and that led to debt improvement. Do you think those are some companies, sectors, groups that you would look at?
What the smarter companies do when interest rates are low, there is so much liquidity, is that they would do more issues of paper and reduce the leverage on their books. Reliance has done that. I was reading about their treasury operations, where they have picked up money at very, very good rates at this time.

I am not worried about what happens to the balance sheets of some of these larger companies. Instead, financial services-particularly large banks is the sector I am worried about.

For the last two years, since there has been a lockdown, nobody has compelled or at least I have not read anything about the amount of loan restructured, how many people took advantage of the moratorium and did not pay interest. Everything keeps getting delayed.

Auditors are being pushed to increase the time to six months, eight months and give us more time to make provisions or declare NPAs. If interest rates were to go up even by 25-50 bps and the cost of capital becomes expensive, you will see a lot of pain in financial services.

It may not be hard to believe right now because everything is hunky-dory. There is so much liquidity around, but this cannot go on forever. There must be some pain somewhere for people not working, not getting salaries and businesses shut. How could that all disappear? So I am more worried about how they will perform over the next four-five quarters.

Have you been a buyer in the recent decline that we have seen from the October highs?
No, not at all. The only thing I have done for a few of my client portfolios is that we have not sold off a lot of equity positions, but we purchased put options for the month ending January. That is to disclose about 1% of the total portfolio size. For example, if somebody has a portfolio of Rs.20 lakhs, then 1% would be something like Rs. 20,000 and so on. So three lots of Nifty for every Rs.20 lakhs, so that is the only thing we have done for clients where portfolios are in equity, and we have not sold off anything, but other than that, we sold off stocks and are holding cash.



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Cautious banks drastically cut education loans as income, job losses rise, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The bank credit is ticking up for industry and allied sectors in line with the economic revival, but certain segments continue to stay in doldrums.

Credit to commercial real estate and education loans shrunk by 0.5% and 8.7% on year, respectively, in October.

According to RBI data on sectoral credit deployment, loans to the industry sector increased 4.1% on year to Rs 28,54,571 crore as on October 22. On the other hand, loans to commercial real estate fell 0.5% on year to Rs 2,53,582 crore while education loans credit deployment by banks by 8.7% to Rs 47,260 crore.

Experts say banks have sharply reduced exposure to unsecured credit and are focusing on secured home loans and working capital needs of high rated corporate borrowers. While they are focusing on growing the mortgage book, banks have reduced exposure to commercial real estate, given the uncertain times.

Education loan NPAs

Nearly 9.55% of education loans extended by PSU banks were labelled as non-performing assets (NPAs) as on December 31, 2020, with loans for engineering and nursing courses topping the chart.

Job and income loss and drop-out rates during the pandemic were key factors behind the surge in education loan NPAs.

Rising unemployment rate is posing major challenges to the banking system as the repayment ability of the borrowers are getting impacted accordingly.

About Rs 8,587 crore loans over 366,260 accounts have turned bad as of December 2020.

As on December 31, 2020, there are 24.84 lakh education loan accounts with an outstanding of Rs 89,883.57 crore across the country. Out of these, about 9.55% or 3.66 lakh accounts with an outstanding of Rs 8,587.10 crore have turned NPAs, the parliament was informed.

The highest defaults were in loans extended for engineering courses as Rs 4,041.68 crore spread over 176,256 accounts as on December 31, 2020.

COVID-led spike

Interestingly, the NPA rate has dropped to 7.61% in FY20 end from 8.11% in FY18. It stood at 8.29% in FY19. The category has witnessed higher NPAs than other categories of retail loans including housing, vehicle, that saw bad loans in the range of 1.52% and 6.91% in FY20 While NPAs in the housing, vehicle and other retail sector loans have remained below 2%, consumer durables NPAs have trebled to 6.91% as on March 2020 from 1.99% in March 2018.

Reserve Bank of India
Reserve Bank of India

Rising graph

Led by a rise in lending to micro and small, and medium industries, bank loans to the industry sector grew a 4.1% on year in October, sharply higher than 2.5% a month ago and contraction of 0.7% a year ago, according to the RBI data.

Loans to large corporates rose 0.5% (on a year-on-year basis) to Rs 22.7 lakh crore in October compared to a contraction of 1.8 % a year ago.

All major segments, except services including agriculture, industry and retail posted higher growth rates over the previous year. Overall bank credit rose 6.9% in October compared to 5.2% a year ago according to the latest data on sectoral deployment of bank credit released by the Reserve Bank of India.

Government schemes like emergency credit guarantee schemes targeted at such borrowers also seemed to have played a part in the pick-up in lending to these corporate borrowers during the festival season.

The 10.7% growth in gross capital formation in Q2’21-22 is driven primarily by public capital expenditure although there are also signs of a pickup in private capex in the current fiscal.



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Indian Bank reports fraud of over Rs 33cr to RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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State-owned Indian Bank has reported a fraud of more than Rs 33 crore to the Reserve Bank, involving two of its accounts that turned into NPAs.

Two non-performing loan accounts, Raj Events and Entertainment and Capricorn Food Products India, have been declared as fraud and reported to the RBI as per regulatory requirement, the bank said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday.

Both the companies caused fraud in the nature of ‘diversion of funds’.

In the case of Capricorn Food Products, the amount involved is of Rs 22.36 crore, while in the case of Raj Events and Entertainment, the fraud amount involved is of Rs 10.97 crore.

Provision held against Capricorn Food as of September 30, 2021 stood at Rs 8.54 crore and of Rs 1.65 crore in the case of Raj Events and Entertainment, the bank said.

Indian Bank shares closed at Rs 142.75 apiece on BSE, down 0.94 per cent from the previous close.



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Indian Bank reports fraud of over Rs 33cr to RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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State-owned Indian Bank has reported a fraud of more than Rs 33 crore to the Reserve Bank, involving two of its accounts that turned into NPAs.

Two non-performing loan accounts, Raj Events and Entertainment and Capricorn Food Products India, have been declared as fraud and reported to the RBI as per regulatory requirement, the bank said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday.

Both the companies caused fraud in the nature of ‘diversion of funds’.

In the case of Capricorn Food Products, the amount involved is of Rs 22.36 crore, while in the case of Raj Events and Entertainment, the fraud amount involved is of Rs 10.97 crore.

Provision held against Capricorn Food as of September 30, 2021 stood at Rs 8.54 crore and of Rs 1.65 crore in the case of Raj Events and Entertainment, the bank said.

Indian Bank shares closed at Rs 142.75 apiece on BSE, down 0.94 per cent from the previous close.



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S&P, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Earnings of Indian banks will get a boost from easing non-performing loans and the nation’s economic recovery that will drive demand for credit.

Many large banks saw their nonperforming loan ratios decline “as new NPA formation was more than offset by recoveries on retail loans,” said Nikita Anand, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings, after both private-sector and government-owned banks reported an improvement in overall asset quality in the fiscal second quarter that ended Sept. 30. “[The banks’] earnings have improved with credit costs moderating,” he said.

As on September 30, the weak loan ratio peaked close to 10 per cent. Credit costs, which reflect provisioning on bad loans, will also likely hit their lowest level in 7 years. This in turn should boost earnings, according to S&P.

State Bank of India, the country’s largest bank by assets, reported total NPAs of Rs 1.25 lakh crore for the quarter ended September 30, down from Rs 1.36 lakh crore in the previous quarter and Rs 1.27 lakh crore in the same period a year ago. Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank also saw quarter-over-quarter falls in NPAs.

Meanwhile, the ratings agency said that it is sceptical of allowing corporate ownership in banks, given India’s weak corporate governance. Corporate ownership of banks raises risks of intergroup lending, diversion of funds and reputational exposure, it said. Currently, the Reserve Bank of India refrained from allowing corporate ownership in banks.

Better asset quality, economic rebound brighten Indian banks' earnings outlook: S&P

Economy on mend

India’s economy grew 20.1% year over year in the April-to-June quarter, recovering from a 24.4% contraction in the same period of 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic forced a strict lockdown across the country. The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to grow about 9.5% in the fiscal year to March 2022, and Governor Shaktikanta Das on November 16 underscored the “need for sustained impetus so that growth could return to, or better still, exceed the pre-pandemic trend.”

The rating agency said that the economy’s expansion is expected to outpace that of developing market peers in the coming few years. “In comparison, some tourism-dependent countries, such as Thailand, are likely to see long-term scarring as we expect only a gradual resumption of travel-related industries,” they agency said.

Ahead of the Diwali festive season, gross bank credit grew 6.7% year over year in both August and September, reversing a contraction earlier in the year, central bank data show.

“With cash flows improving for underlying borrowers due to easing of the pandemic and lockdowns, most banks have reported an improvement in asset quality and reduction in nonperforming assets,” said Krishnan Sitaraman, senior director at Crisil, a unit of S&P Global Inc.

“It is also a reflection of the clear improvement in economic fundamentals for the country” after the economy contracted 7.3% in the year that ended March 31, 2021, Sitaraman said.

Banks are likely to sustain their earnings improvement in 2022 if credit costs continue to moderate, though Sitaraman flagged the risk of a possible fresh wave of Covid infections and its potential impact on economic activity.

Better asset quality, economic rebound brighten Indian banks' earnings outlook: S&P

Better earnings

The net profit of State Bank of India in the second quarter rose to Rs 8,890 crore from Rs 5,246 crore in the prior-year period. ICICI Bank Ltd’s net profit increased to Rs 6,092 crore from Rs 4,882 crore in the prior-year period.

SBI’s credit cost and net interest margin profile were better than expectations, ICICI Securities said in a note after the lender reported its earnings. SBI’s management expects an opportunity to grow its corporate and small business portfolios as economic activity picks up, the merchant banking and retail broking arm of India’s second-biggest private-sector lender by assets said in a note. “SBI also has sufficient capital and liquidity on balance sheet to support growth.”

HDFC Bank, the country’s largest private-sector bank, saw its NPLs ease to Rs 21,000 crore from Rs 23,000 crore in the first quarter. The lender said its bad loans from small-and-medium scale businesses declined over the previous quarter and the corporate book is resilient, suggesting that a bigger part of incremental delinquency is flowing from the retail and agriculture segments, ICICI Securities said in a note after HDFC reported its earnings.

“Further curtailment of slippages, better recoveries and improved collections will support asset quality trends in coming quarters [for HDFC Bank],” according to ICICI Securities.



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CAG flags treatment of bank recap expenditure in FY18-19, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Comptroller and Audit General (CAG) has raised its concerns over treatment of expenditure of bank recapitalisation during 2017-18 and 2018-19, stating that it was against the provisions of the fiscal responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act.

For recapitalisation of state-run banks, the government provided ₹80,000 crore in 2017-18 and of ₹1.06 lakh crore in 2018-19 respectively.

The CAG has flagged in the expenditure budget the above mentioned expenditure on recapitalisation of the PSBs, had been netted against receipts from issue of special securities, while in the receipt budget, receipts from the securities have been netted against expenditure on recapitalisation.

It said that during the two financial years, funds for these investments were raised by the government through issue of non-transferable special securities to the same PSBs.

According to CAG, the finance ministry had stated that bank recapitalisation was not fiscally neutral but cash neutral, as issue of securities would get reflected in the total government debt and coupon payments for the special securities when made would be reflected in the deficit of the relevant year.

The concept of recapitalisation bonds was first introduced in 2017. Earlier, the capital infusion was to done by the government to a bank through cash outgo from the Consolidated Fund of India led to fiscal pressure.In 2017, the government had introduced recap bonds.

Under this, the government issues recapitalisation bonds to a public sector bank which needs capital. In turn, banks subscribe to the bond against which the government receives the money. Now the money received goes as equity capital of the bank. So the government doesn’t have to pay anything from its pocket.

The national auditor also pointed out the deficit in operation of the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), which comprises all collections of small saving schemes.

“The balances under NSSF do not explicitly disclose the substantial accumulated deficit in the fund, which would have to be made good by the government in the future. There is also inadequate disclosure that significant amounts were being provided from NSSF for funding revenue expenditure of the government which would have to be serviced through budgetary support. It also raised concerns over inadequacies in disclosure under the FRBM rules.

The CAG pulled up the union government for adopting an erroneous process of devolution of Integrated Goods and Services Tax to states and short-transfer of cesses to reserve funds, which resulted in under-reporting of deficit figures for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 fiscals. The IGST, which is levied on inter-state sale of goods and services, is shared between the Centre and states in the 50:50 ratio.

In its report on the union government accounts tabled in Parliament, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) found that ₹13,944 crore was left unapportioned and retained in the Consolidated Fund of India (CFI) in 2018-19, even though the amended IGST Act now provides for a process for ad-hoc apportionment of IGST.



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Security receipts for past NPAs appear as lenders seek to avoid provisioning

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“Time is not the essence for transfer of SRs. In the event of non-realisation of amount out of SRs, the bank is not liable to refund anything in part or full,” SBI said in the notice.

Security receipts (SRs) issued against bad-loan sales from seven-eight years ago are set to enter the stressed assets market as lenders seek to avoid provisioning against them. Both banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are likely to start hunting for buyers for SRs, with State Bank of India taking the lead, industry executives told FE.

The country’s largest lender by assets has issued a notice seeking bids for SRs with a face value of Rs 38 crore issued against its exposure to CM Smith and Sons by Invent Assets Securitisation & Reconstruction. The securities were assigned in January 2015.

“Time is not the essence for transfer of SRs. In the event of non-realisation of amount out of SRs, the bank is not liable to refund anything in part or full,” SBI said in the notice.

Executives from the stressed assets industry said SRs issued during non-performing asset (NPA) sales are now expected to be put up for sale, as for many of them, recoveries have not happened and erosion in the net asset value (NAV) may demand additional provisioning.

“Until a few years ago, there used to be structured deals in ARC sales – first under 5:95 and then under the 15:85 structure. SRs from these years are going to enter the market now as NAVs for many of them have depleted and that means the purpose of selling them to ARCs hasn’t fructified. So, to avoid providing against them, banks and NBFCs will both come to the market,” said a senior executive from the industry.

Most NPAs sold to ARCs since 2018 have been assigned through full-cash deals, which means that there were no SRs issued during the sale. In SRs, underlying cash flows are dependent on realisation from NPAs. Reserve Bank of India guidelines say investments in SRs may be aggregated to arrive at net depreciation or appreciation of investments under the category. Net depreciation, if any, must be provided for.

Prospective buyers for SRs are also mostly ARCs. According to industry executives, the quality of underlying assets for each set of SRs and their vintage are the two important factors that will determine the terms of sale. The most coveted SRs will have residential properties as the underlying, followed by commercial properties, office properties and industrial properties.

Lenders may have to take substantial haircuts as these assets are old. “Most of these sales are likely to be priced at 25-30 cents to the dollar because of the vintage of the asset,” the person quoted above said.

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NPAs of NBFCs, HFCs may rise for 3-4 quarters due to tweak in norms

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Non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), including housing finance companies (HFCs), may see an increase in non-performing assets (NPAs) for three-four quarters due to the tweak in norms relating to when a borrower account can be flagged as overdue and tightening of rules relating to upgradation of NPA accounts.

However, NPAs are expected to stablise a couple of quarters after the Reserve Bank of India’s modified “Prudential norms on Income Recognition, Asset Classification and Provisioning (IRACP) pertaining to Advances” take effect, say industry experts.

The RBI has asked lending institutions to comply with the aforementioned prudential norms at the earliest, but not later than March 31, 2022.

Limited economic impact

Experts assessed that the impact of the modified norms could only be an accounting one and not so much economic as many NBFCs are not only holding more than required provisions under the expected credit loss (ECL) framework but also Covid-related provisioning buffer.

“Many NBFCs are following monthly tagging of NPAs but RBI has proposed NPA tagging as part of day-end process for the relevant date. So, due to the changed norm, assets in the special mention account/SMA-2 category (when principal or interest payment in a loan account is overdue for more than 60 days and up to 90 days) could migrate to the NPA category,” said a senior NBFC official.

Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director and Deputy Chief Ratings Officer, CRISIL Ratings, assessed that the RBI’s clarifications to the ‘Prudential norms on IRACP pertaining to Advances’, which now ask the NBFCs to recognise NPAs on a daily due date basis as part of their day-end process, will lead to higher gross NPAs (GNPAs).

No more flexibility

Referring to most NBFCs following month-end NPA recognition, he noted that typically, they ramp up collection activity on overdue accounts between the due date and the month end, which is why overdues reduce towards the month-ends. Now, this flexibility is no longer available.

“Bounce rates in the 60-90 days bucket are estimated at 25-35 per cent. Consequently, a significant proportion of the loans in the 60-90 days bucket may slip into the more than 90 days overdue bucket and will have to be recognised as NPA,” Sitaraman said.

On RBI stipulation that loan accounts classified as NPAs can be upgraded as ‘standard’ asset only if entire arrears of interest and principal are paid by the borrower, he opined that typically, it has been difficult for retail borrowers classified as NPAs to fully clear their three or more overdue instalments quickly.

Data shows these borrowers clear only one or two additional instalments typically, so their accounts remain overdue even when it’s for less than 90 days.

Sitaraman said:“The combination of day-end recognition and tighter upgradation criteria means such accounts are likely to remain classified as NPAs for a longer period.

“Consequently, the headline reported GNPAs will rise and stay elevated for some time. This will also increase the operational intensity for NBFCs as they align their systems for daily stamping of NPAs.”

RBI tweaked the criteria for upgradation of accounts classified as NPAs as it found some lending institutions upgrading accounts classified as NPAs to ‘standard’ asset category upon payment of only interest overdues, partial overdues, etc. To avoid any ambiguity in this regard, the central bank clarified that loan accounts classified as NPAs may be upgraded as ‘standard’ asset only if entire arrears of interest and principal are paid by borrower.

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RBI governor to banks, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday asked lenders to proactively identify loans to firms that have turned non-viable but not yet recognised as a non-performing asset (NPA) due to the special dispensation during Covid. The governor also asked banks to review the usability of capital for absorbing losses during a crisis.

Pointing out that numerous high-frequency indicators are showing that economic recovery is taking hold, Das said that there have been several resolution frameworks announced in the wake of the pandemic. “As the support measures start unwinding, some of these restructured accounts might face solvency issues over the coming quarters. Prudence would warrant proactive recognition of such non-viable firms for pragmatic resolution measures,” said Das.

Speaking at an economic conclave organised by the State Bank of India, Das noted that banks have weathered the Covid shock better than expected and, according to early trends, their bad loans and capital position has improved in September 2021 from their levels in June 2021. He said that the profitability metrics of banks were highest in several years. However, the improved parameters partly reflect regulatory relief provided to banks during Covid as well as fiscal guarantees and financial support given by the government, he said.

“Certain concerns have re-emerged from the crisis which warrant our attention. Most importantly, we are faced with the question of capital and provisioning buffers of banks, their adequacy and resultant usability during a crisis,” said Das. He urged banks to focus and further improve their capital management processes to envisage the capacity for loss absorption as an ongoing responsibility of the lending institutions.

In his speech, the governor also cautioned banks on the “technological invasion” that they face. “A word of caution is in order: Globally, the ‘phygital’ revolution has played out into several collaborative models between banks, NBFCs and fintech players such as incubation, capital investment, co-creation, distribution and integration… it must be recognised that the risks ultimately lie in the books of banks and NBFCs and hence the collaboration should be appropriately strategised,” Das said.



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RBI Committee, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Multiple factors have led to sub-optimal performance of the asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) in the country, said the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) Committee.

The ARC framework was designed to allow originators to focus on their core function of lending, by removing sticky stressed financial assets from their books.

It was also designed to help borrowers revive their businesses, which protects the viable and productive assets of the economy and often ensures a better return to banks and financial institutions (FIs).

Accordingly, the Committee constituted to “Review the working of ARCs said multiple factors behind the sub-optimal performance of the sector such as vintage NPAs being passed on to ARCs, lack of debt aggregation, non-availability of additional funding for stressed borrowers, difficulty in raising of funds by the ARCs on their balance sheet, among others.”

“Also, ARCs have lacked focus on both recovery and acquiring necessary skill sets for holistic resolution of distressed borrowers.”

The RBI Committee cited data which showed that the performance of the ARCs has been lacklustre, both in terms of ensuring recovery and revival of businesses.

“Banks and other investors could recover only about 14.29 per cent of the amount owed by borrowers in respect of stressed assets sold to ARCs during the FY 2004-2013 period.”

“Similarly, data shows that approximately 80 per cent of the recovery made by ARCs has come through deployment of measures of reconstruction that do not necessarily lead to revival of businesses.”

Considering the challenges impacting the performance of the ARC sector, the Committee recommended sale of stressed assets by lenders at an earlier stage to allow for optimal recovery by ARCs.

“In this respect, the Committee highlights the need for regulatory clarification on sale of all categories of special mention accounts (SMAs) to ARCs.”

“Further, as a measure to incentivise lenders to sell their financial assets to ARCs at an early stage of stress, the committee recommends a dispensation to lenders, on an ongoing basis, to amortise the loss on sale, if any, over a period of two years.”

Besides, it called for a higher threshold of investment in SRs by lenders below which provisioning on SRs held by them may be done on the basis of Net Asset Value (NAV) declared by the ARC instead of the IRACP norms.

In addition, the Committee among other measures, recommended the creation of an online platform for sale of stressed assets.

“Infrastructure created by the Secondary Loan Market Association (SLMA) may be utilised for this purpose.”

–IANS

rv/khz/



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