Banks may take up to $10-billion hit on Archegos loss: JPMorgan

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Banks roiled by the Archegos Capital fallout may see total losses in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion, according to JPMorgan.

Losses from trades unwinding related to Archegos will be “very material” in relation to lending exposure for a business that is mark-to-market and holds liquid collateral, analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note. They added that Nomura Holdings Inc’s indication of potentially losing $2 billion and press speculation of a $3 billion to $4 billion loss at Credit Suisse AG is “not an unlikely outcome.”

Analysts and investors are trying to figure out the final losses to banks exposed to the Archegos implosion, with the task made harder by the opaque nature of the leveraged trading involved. JPMorgan had previously estimated losses in the range of $2 billion to $5 billion.

“We are still puzzled why Credit Suisse and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point,” the analysts wrote, adding that they expect to see full disclosures from lenders by the end of this week.

Credit Suisse Girds for Billions in Losses From Archegos Hit

The analysts advised investors to keep an eye on credit agencies statements as they expect poor risk management to be an issue.

That’s an emerging theme at Credit Suisse, where executives are expecting the loss related to Archego to run into the billions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. March’s blowups may wipe out more than a year of profits for the bank and threaten its stock buyback plans, as well as adding to the reputational hit from other missteps.

The bank’s plans to buy back 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion) of shares are at risk, according to Berenberg analyst Eoin Mullany. He estimates the lender could face losses of $3 billion to $4 billion.

“The hits just keep coming for Credit Suisse,” he wrote in a note Mullany.

Preceding the Archegos losses were the liquidation of its supply-chain finance funds linked to collapsed financier Lex Greensill and a writedown on a stake in hedge fund York Capital Management taken in the fourth quarter.

The buyback programme resumed in January after having been suspended for nearly a year due to the pandemic.

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Global banks face Bear Stears, Lehman like impact in Archegos default, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The forced liquidation of more than $20 billion in holdings linked to Bill Hwang’s investment arm is drawing attention to the covert financial instruments he used to build large stakes in companies.

Much of the leverage used by Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management was provided by banks including Nomura Holdings and Credit Suisse Group through swaps or so-called contracts-fordierence (CFDs), according to people with direct knowledge of the deals. It means Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities — if any at all.

Archegos troubles

While investors who build a stake of more than 5 per cent in a US-listed company usually have to disclose their position and future transactions, that’s not the case with stakes built through the type of derivatives apparently used by Archegos. The products, which are made to exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings.

The swift unwinding of Archegos has reverberated across the globe, after banks such as Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley forced Hwang’s arm to sell billions of dollars in investments accumulated through highly leveraged bets. The selloff roiled stocks from Baidu to ViacomCBS, and prompted Nomura and Credit Suisse to disclose that they face potentially significant losses on their exposure. One reason for the widening fallout is the borrowed funds that investors use to magnify their bets: a margin call occurs when the market goes against a large, leveraged position, forcing the hedge fund to deposit more cash or securities with its broker to cover any losses. Archegos was probably required to deposit only a small percentage of the total value of trades.

Massive unwinding

The chain of events set off by this massive unwinding is yet another reminder of the role that hedge funds play in the global capital markets. A hedge fund short squeeze during a Reddit-fueled frenzy for Gamestop Corp. shares earlier this year spurred a $6 billion loss for Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital and sparked scrutiny from US regulators and politicians.

The idea that one firm can quietly amass outsized positions through the use of derivatives could set o another wave of criticism directed against loosely regulated firms that have the power to destabilize markets. While the margin calls on Friday triggered losses of as much as 40 per cent in some shares, there was no sign of contagion in markets broadly on Monday.

Rescues galore

Contrast that with 2008, when Ireland’s then-richest man used derivatives to build a position so large in Anglo Irish Bank it eventually contributed to the country’s international bailout. In 2015, New York-based FXCM Inc. needed rescuing because of losses at its UK ailiate resulting from the unexpected depegging of the Swiss franc. Much about Hwang’s trades remains unclear, but market participants estimate his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years and total positions may have topped $50 billion.

CFDs and swaps are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges. Such opacity helped to worsen the 2008 financial crisis and regulators have introduced a vast new body of rules governing the assets since then.



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Credit Suisse says it faces a ‘significant loss’

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Swiss bank Credit Suisse said Monday that it may face a “highly significant” loss resulting from a default by a US-based hedge fund on margin calls that it and other banks made last week.

In a brief statement, Credit Suisse didn’t identify the “significant” hedge fund or the other banks affected, or give other details of what happened.

“Following the failure of the fund to meet these margin commitments, Credit Suisse and a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions,” the company said.

“While at this time it is premature to quantify the exact size of the loss resulting from this exit, it could be highly significant and material to our first-quarter results, notwithstanding the positive trends announced in our trading statement earlier this month,” it added. Credit Suisse said that it plans to issue an update “in due course.” A margin call is triggered when investors borrow using their stock portfolio as collateral and have to make up the balance required by banks when the share prices fall and the collateral is worth less.

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