Tag: lockdown

HFCs’ AUM to grow 8-10 per cent in FY22 against 6 per cent in FY21: ICRA

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Housing Finance Companies’ (HFCs) growth is expected to pick up in the rest of FY2022 despite headwinds in the first quarter (Q1) of FY2022, but weak asset quality is likely to keep their profitability subdued, according to ICRA.

The credit rating agency estimated that HFCs’ portfolio is likely to grow by 8-10 per cent in FY2022 against 6 per cent in FY2021.

ICRA expects gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) to improve marginally from June 2021 level (of 3.6 per cent), but to stay elevated and higher by 40-70 basis points as on March 31, 2022, as compared to March 31, 2021 (of 2.9 per cent).

The agency opined that though the portfolio growth is expected to drive an improvement in revenue, the expected elevated credit costs are likely to keep the profitability subdued in FY2022.

Growth agenda back on the table: Ravi Subramanian, MD and CEO of Shriram Housing

ICRA observed that healthy demand in the industry, increasing level of economic activity and increasing vaccination in the country are expected to result in a steady growth in disbursements and improvement in collection efficiency (CE) in FY2022.

Covid impact

Sachin Sachdeva, Vice-President and Sector Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, said: “Overall on-book portfolio of HFCs in India is estimated at ₹11.0 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, with exposures across home loans (HLs), loan against property (LAP), construction finance (CF), and lease rental discounting (LRD).

“The Covid-19-induced disruptions moderated the portfolio growth to 6 per cent in FY2021. Nevertheless, despite nil sequential growth in Q1 FY2022, aforementioned favourable factors provide hope for better growth prospects in FY2022 with an estimated growth rate of 8-10 per cent.”

FinMin allows small HFCs to take recourse to SARFAESI law

The agency noted that HFCs’ asset quality metrics weakened quite sharply in Q1 FY2022 because of the localised lockdowns imposed by various States/Union Territories (UTs) on account of the second wave, which impacted the borrowers’ cash flows and hence the CE.

“The jump in overdues was the sharpest in the recent past, as borrower-level liquidity got stretched in the absence of loan moratorium. The marginal borrowers, therefore, slipped into the NPA (non-performing asset)/overdue category in Q1 FY2022,” ICRA said.

Consequently, the Gross NPAs increased to 3.6 per cent as on June 30, 2021, from 2.9 per cent as on March 31, 2021 (2.3 per cent as on March 31, 2020).

Per the agency’s assessment, though the asset quality deteriorated across segments, CF was worst hit followed by LAP and HL. Thus, entities with high exposure to CF witnessed a higher impact than the industry average.

The headline asset quality numbers are expected to moderate slightly from current level as the trend in the CE continues to remain encouraging.

Nevertheless, ICRA expects a 40-70 basis points (bps) increase (net of recoveries and write-offs) in GNPAs by March 31, 2022, from GNPAs as on March 31, 2021, assuming there are no further Covid-19 induced lockdowns. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Sachdeva said the pre-tax return on average managed assets (profit before tax/PBT per cent) for FY2022 is likely to remain similar to FY2021 level (1.9-2.0 per cent). Optimistically, if the collection efficiency trends post a steady and healthy revival and if slippages remain contained, then PBT per cent may also benefit from reversals in provisions.

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Tamil Nadu FICCI Chairman, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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It is estimated that in the first phase of the lockdown, the revenue shortfall was over 44% in Tamil Nadu’s Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector and the extension of the lockdown could increase the revenue loss to 60%, said Dr. GSK Velu, Chairman FICCI TN State and Trivitron Healthcare Chairman & Managing Director.

He said the state has more than 6.89 lakh registered enterprises, accounting for 15% of the total MSMEs in the country and went on to add that the MSMEs in Tamil Nadu are caught in a peculiar situation.

“Apart from resulting in a severe shortage of working capital, the Covid-19 crisis had caused delays in payment, labour shortages, and disruptions in the supply chain,” he explained.

Velu said that the growth of healthcare manufacturing is very important for India’s economic development.He said the Indian healthcare sector is full of opportunities for medical devices and the diagnostic industry and Trivitron is one of the leading destinations that offer advanced healthcare devices, products, and facilities catering to a greater proportion of the population around the globe at the best cost without compromising the quality. The company focuses on “Make in India” which will accelerate the growth of the country’s manufacturing sector.

“Manufacturing will help in operational excellence, provide large-scale employment and this initiative will also enable a significant section of the population to get jobs and move out of poverty.

He said that through the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, some favourable domestic manufacturing encouragement policies of the government, the domestic manufacturers stepped forward to make India self-reliant on medical devices.

“Not only Trivitron, as a medical device manufacturer but the whole industry and customers will get more relaxation and it will surely give a boost to manufacture indigenous medical devices. GST exemption is nothing but an incentive and reward for Indian manufacturers/Importers.” Velu said.

While speaking about the impact that Covid-19 has had on the lab testing industry at large, he said that the pandemic threw up a host of challenges.

“In the first phase of Covid-19, the only way to fight it is via boosting the testing, whereas in the second phase we got the vaccine to fight the Covid-19, but still the labs were on the front foot to diagnose the disease through RT-PCR and Antibody tests. So, lab testing has become very essential as we have experienced the need for more labs during the two waves. Trivitron has sold 55+ million Covid tests in the country,” he said.

He went on to add that the company is looking to increase its product lines by adding more products and technologies and is facilitating the development of custom-tailored products for developed, developing, and underdeveloped economies. Further, he said talks are on to cover the entire MENA region, which shall establish Trivitron as the only Health technology organization of Indian origin to cater to every country in the Gulf and Africa.



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Gold loan demand is expected to spike after lockdown: Indel Money CEO

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Pledging of household gold is expected to go up across states with the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions, according to Umesh Mohanan, Executive Director and CEO, Indel Money, a Mumbai-based NBFC.

He says that customers are strapped for cash to honour committed outflows. The virus has been deadly this time with rising infection rate, caseloads and number of deaths, forcing people to borrow more. All these have added to the financial woes of the common people, he adds. Edited excerpts of an interview:

What is the outlook on gold loan for the current fiscal? And what will drive the growth of gold loans?

The outlook for gold loan demand is positive and the demand will be fuelled by healthcare requirements, pandemic-driven uncertainty, the limitations of the banking sector to serve gold loan demand at the earlier pace due to decreased gold prices and end of 90 per cent LTV lending on last March 2021, apart from increased credit crunch due to the prevailing policies.

Our gold loan book has registered around 40 per cent growth in FY20-21. We expect around 50 per cent plus growth in FY21-22, thanks to our expanded geographical presence.

Has there been growth in the gold loan business in April and May of FY22 compared to the same period last year?

The branches in locations with reduced restrictions on movements have witnessed larger pent-up demand in comparison to last year. The industry has been growing at over 25 per cent. Gold loan demand is expected to spike after the lockdown and the post-lockdown demand growth is expected to surpass growth registered during the post lockdown period last year.

Also read: Borrowers to get option to repay a part of the Gold (Metal) Loan in physical gold

Recently, gold loan NBFCs auctioned record tonnage of pledged gold through auctions. Does this point to the growing credit risks for firms offering short-term loans?

Truly, at this point when cash flow is constrained for the common consumer, the facility to keep their gold live by remitting interest and continuing at their original LTV would be a better option than the short-term loans. The consumers have to settle interest along with principal within a short period of time, and correspondingly re-pledge at relatively lower LTV. This will result in huge cash outflow for the customer, in comparison with the longer-tenure schemes.

What are your plans for the company?

We are planning to explore various options such as capital injection by the group holding company, raising funds through public NCDs and PE/VC placement for our expansion. We have recently opened 25 branches across Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. We also have plans to enter Maharashtra and Gujarat with our conventional brick-and-mortar format by Q4 FY21-22. We are also planning to set up a support hub in all major cities to spread our doorstep gold loan facility which functions through the network of virtual branches.

We are planning to launch pre-paid cards. Our disbursals are fully automated because of our tie-ups with banks through our app. Existing customers can use our portal or mobile app to extend the exposure of the gold pledged with us on the basis of the prevailing LTV.

We will set up an automated process in which customers can manage the credit line according to their preferences. We are also planning to expand our online gold loan facility to take the branches to the homes of customers as the upper segments of MSMEs are not comfortable visit gold loan company branches during the gold appraisal process.

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City Union Bank hopes to maintain better asset quality in FY22 amid second wave blues

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Leading old private sector lender City Union Bank hopes that FY22 will not be as bad as FY21 and credit growth this fiscal for the bank could be in the mid- to high-single digit if the economic environment and Covid second wave behaved like last year.

“Though the impact of the second wave is much higher in terms of infection and mortality, its impact on bank’s growth and other parameters may not be as bad as it saw in the first wave. I do not say that we will be seeing milk and honey flowing, but it looks like now things are not as bad as the same time last year,” N Kamakodi, Managing Director & CEO, told the Q4FY21 earnings conference call.

The bank’s credit growth in first wave hit-FY21 was 7 per cent and the slippage ratio to closing advances was at 3.01%.

He said the adverse impact of the second wave on the growth and slippages would definitely be there, but it may not be as bad as the first wave. FY21 almost ended like what we thought during the beginning of the year, and we hope FY22 will not be as bad FY21. It should be slightly better, he added.

At the same time, the total lockdown in three States particularly in Tamil Nadu where CUB has the bulk of its operations, the collection efforts are dampened and some impact on the collections are there. There are no property sale transactions as government registration departments are closed. Hence, the bank expects to see some spike, but overall slippages will be slightly better than FY21.

“We expect even though for the year as a whole the slippage may be slightly lower than whatever we saw in FY21, the slippages could be front loaded may be in the first one or two quarters and we will be seeing things getting eased up once the lockdown is removed,” Kamakodi said.

The bank expects its gross and net NPA to be lower than FY21 amid some quarterly spikes.

ECLGS scheme

In FY21, the major credit growth came from jewel loan and extension of facility to ECLGS scheme. Of the ECLGS scheme under ECLGS 1, 2, and 3, it disbursed ₹2,096 crore for an exposure of about ₹10,445 crore constituting about 5.63 per cent of the advances.

“We expect a further sanction of about ₹200 crore from ECLGS 3.0 scheme. The government guaranteed ECLGS scheme 1, 2 and 3, in fact most of the credit of MSMEs and also non-MSME sector and businesses have started generating surplus. This has also resulted in improving capital adequacy ratio as the disbursement to the ECLGS scheme attracts no risk weight and is guaranteed by the government,” said Kamakodi.

The total restructured portfolio for MSME account on March 31, 2021 stood at ₹1,849 crore and overall percentage restructured account constituted about 4.99 per cent.

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Dollar fights for footing as Fed minutes eyed

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The US dollar found pockets of support in Asia on Monday, but struggled to post gains, as investors are heavily positioned for it to fall further while the US Federal Reserve holds interest rates low and US trade and current account deficits grow.

Easing commodity prices and virus outbreaks in Singapore and Taiwan — where Covid-19 had been contained — helped modest dollar gains of 0.2 per cent against the Australian and New Zealand dollars in the early part of the Asia session. The greenback also rose 0.1 per cent against the euro and the yen. But it remains close to testing major support levels, which if broken could see a return to a downtrend that pressed it lower through April.

Also read: Rupee rises 13 paise to settle at 73.29 against US dollar

A dollar bounce that followed higher-than-expected inflation data last week has also faded as traders figure the Fed will keep rates low. The dollar last traded at $1.2134 per euro and has support around $1.2179. The dollar index is likewise, at 90.389, just above key supports at 89.677 and 89.206. It bought 109.45 yen and traded at $0.7758 per Aussie and $0.7228 per kiwi.

Fed minutes, from an April meeting that predated the data surprise on inflation last week, are due on Wednesday and are the next market focus for clues on the Fed’s thinking.

“We expect the minutes … to reiterate that policymakers consider the pick up in inflation to be transitory,” said Kim Mundy, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The upshot is that we do not expect the (Fed) to consider tapering its asset purchases soon,” she said. “The dollar is expected to resume its downtrend this week after last week’s CPI-inspired boost.”

Speculators increased their bets against the dollar last week, mostly by adding to bets on the euro and to a lesser extent sterling as Britain and Europe head toward recovery. Sterling was perched near a two-and-a-half-month high on Monday, at $1.4085, as Britain reopens its economy after a four-month Covid-19 lockdown.

Things are travelling in the opposite direction in Asia where some early leaders in taming the pandemic are now dealing with new outbreaks. Singapore and Taiwan have both tightened curbs as cases rise and the Taiwan dollar fell to a three-week low on Monday. The dollar crept up 0.1 per cent against the Chinese yuan to trade at 6.4424 ahead of industrial output and retail sales figures due mid-morning on Monday. Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies traded under pressure after another weekend bouncing around following tweets from Tesla boss Elon Musk. Bitcoin hit its lowest since February on Sunday after Musk hinted at Tesla possibly selling its holdings. Bitcoin last traded 2 per cent weaker at $45,302 and ether was 4 per cent lower at $3,421.

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Second Covid wave to hit banks’ growth harder than asset quality: Analysts

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The extent and nature of lockdowns across states will impact credit growth for banks and non-banks by about 140-160 bps, analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services have said

The second wave of surging Covid cases in India could pose a greater risk to banks’ loan growth than to their asset quality, analysts said. The extent and nature of lockdowns across states will impact credit growth for banks and non-banks by about 140-160 basis points (bps), analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services have said. Industry experts expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest round of relief measures to support asset quality.

According to Emkay’s estimates, the severely affected states account for about 48% of retail credit and 56% of overall credit. The self-employed categories will bear much of the brunt of localised lockdowns. “We estimate that within retail assets (~31% of overall credit), the self-employed category accounts for nearly a third – though the impact will largely be restricted to BL (business loan)/LAP (loans against property) and MFI (microfinance) portfolio,” the report said.

Commercial vehicles (CV) loans are likely to hold up well as goods transport remains unrestricted. Most banks continue to stay invested in the secured lending categories, especially mortgages. Shanti Ekambaram, group president – consumer banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank, told analysts last week that home loans will continue to be a big area of focus for the lender. “February and March were our best ever months in LAP, too. This has traditionally been an area where we have done well, both in terms of market share and credit quality and we will continue to consolidate and grow our share,” she said.

Small and medium enterprise (SME) loans face the biggest risk of credit crunch, according to Emkay. The brokerage assumes about 50-70% demand destruction for self-employed focused products and 25% for the salaried class-oriented products during the lockdown.

In the small enterprises and retail segments, experts anticipate a spike in restructuring in the absence of a moratorium like in FY21. India Ratings and Research said in a recent report, “In the wake of these (RBI) measures along with the Emergency Credit Linked Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), borrowers could tide over temporary liquidity challenges, though slippages in unviable assets could spread over FY22-FY25.”

By end-February 2021, India Ratings estimates banks had sanctioned recasts worth Rs 2.46 lakh crore to beneficiaries. Also, Rs 45,000 crore of advances were restructured by end-March 2021. Non-banks, especially those in the vehicle finance, mid – large ticket LAP and unsecured business loan segments would make substantial use of the new restructuring framework, India Ratings said.

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Will try to keep soft interest rate regime as long as possible: SBI chief

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State Bank of India will try to keep the interest rates benign as long as possible with a view to supporting the economic growth, its chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara has said.

On the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on non-performing assets of the bank, the SBI chief said that as the lockdown was not pan-India, one will have to wait and watch to assess its impact on the banking sector.

Impact of local restrictions

Observing that multiple variables including inflation have a bearing on the interest rates, he said, “our effort is to support the growth initiatives. To really ensure that happens, we will try to keep the soft interest rate regime for as long as possible.” In an interview to PTI, Khara said it is too early to give any colour to likely scenario of NPAs because of local restrictions.

Also read: SBI’s Business Activity Index dips to a new low

The impact of lockdown differ from State to State as it is not uniform, he said, adding, “so, probably we can wait and watch for some more time before making any comment on impact on economy and NPA situation.” Speaking about various initiatives of the country’s largest lender, Khara said, SBI has decided to set up makeshift hospitals with ICU facilities for Covid-19 patients in some of the worst affected States.

Fighting the pandemic

The bank has already earmarked ₹30 crore and is engaging with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and hospital management for setting up medical facilities on an emergency basis for the treatment of Covid-19 patients.

He said the bank intends to put in place 1,000 beds with 50 ICU facilities in the States that are the worst affected.

SBI is also collaborating with hospitals and NGOs to provide oxygen concentrators for patients.

“We have put in place an action plan. We have earmarked ₹70 crore-plus out of which we are giving ₹21 crore to 17 circles for Covid-19 related initiatives,” he said.

For the safety of employees and their families, he said, the bank has tied up with hospitals across the country to facilitate treatment of those who have fallen sick on a priority basis.

Also read: Banks roll out special schemes to protect, treat employees amidst Covid surge

About 70,000 employees out of 2.5 lakh strong staff strength have already got vaccinated. The bank has decided to bear the cost of vaccination for its employees and their dependent family members.

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Cannot afford lockdown, take precautions: Canara Bank ED

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Karnataka’s annual credit plan (ACP) outlay has been increased by 35.78 percent at ₹4.96-lakh crore for financial year (FY) 2021-22, as compared with ₹3.65-lakh crore in FY 2020-21.

Total priority sector credit is fixed at ₹2.92-lakh crore, an increase of 14.24 percent over the previous year’s ₹2.55-lakh crore. Share of agriculture credit is fixed at ₹1.25 lakh crore, constituting 43.09 percent of total priority sector credit. Crop production credit is ₹71,923.31 crore comprising 57.09 percent of total agriculture credit. The share of MSME is ₹1.11-lakh crore, education loan is ₹5,969.86 crore, housing loan ₹30,164.89 crore and other sectors ₹9,498.22 crore.

Speaking after launching the State’s ACP 2021-22, Manimekhalai, Executive Director of Canara Bank said “ The country is on the verge of one more uncertainty but cannot afford one more lockdown, we have to be more careful, should take all precautionary measures and continue to observe all Covid protocols.”

“All stakeholders have to put in efforts for survival and revival of the economy,” she added.

Talking about providing immediate relief to the vulnerable and affected segments, Manimekhalai, said “Central government has come out with many schemes to rebuild economy with the help of State government, RBI and NABARD through schemes like agriculture infrastructure fund, coverage of 10,000 FPOs, formalisation of micro food processing enterprises (FME) with ODOP (One District One Product) concept etc.”

The State as a whole has achieved 80.62 percent of ACP under MSME, 77.97 percent under agriculture and 102.27 percent under total credit at the end of the third quarter of FY 2020-21.

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SBI research dept cuts FY22 real GDP forecast to 10.4% from 11%

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State Bank of India’ Economic Research Department has revised its real GDP growth forecast downwards to 10.4 per cent from 11 per cent in FY22 in view of the Covid-19 pandemic related partial/ local/ weekend lockdown in almost all the states.

The ERD estimated the total monetary impact (total loss) of the current lockdown in various States at Rs 1.5 lakh crores. Of this, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account for 80 per cent.

“Maharashtra has put up a stringent lockdown. Being the economically biggest and most industrialised state in India, this lockdown will have a huge impact on growth.

“Currently, we estimate loss of around Rs 82,000 crore for Maharashtra (which accounts for 54 per cent of the total loss) which will definitely increase if restrictions are further tightened,” Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, said.

 

Migration of labour

The ERD’s presentation titled ‘Thwarting the Second Wave: Rapid Vaccination should be the primary tool and not Lockdown,’ said migration of labour is continuing unabated.

According to data provided by Western Railways (Headquarters: Mumbai; for the period of April 1-12), almost 4.32 lakh people have returned to states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP), West Bengal (WB), Bihar, Assam and Odisha from Maharashtra.

“Of the 4.32 lakh, around 3.23 lakh reverse migrated to UP and Bihar alone. From Central Railways our estimate indicates that around 4.7 lakh reverse migrated to northern and eastern states from Maharashtra,” the presentation said.

 

SBI’s Business Activity Index is now at a five-month low (at 86.3 in the week ended April 19, 2021). All the indicators have shown a dip with maximum decline in Apple mobility, weekly food arrival at Mandis and RTO revenue collection, according to SBI’s ERD.

Referring to the April-May 2020 period witnessing huge monthly incremental increase in deposits (particularly time deposits) as people had fewer options to spend due to the nationwide lockdown, Ghosh observed that this time also large traction in time deposits can be expected as most of the states have imposed a partial lockdown.

 

All Scheduled Commercial Banks’ credit growth declined to a 59-year-low of 5.6 per cent in 2020-21, compared to 6.1 per cent growth in 2019-20, the presentation said. On the other hand, deposits have increased to 11.4 per cent in FY21, compared to 7.9 per cent growth in FY20.

Peak time

The ERD’s model suggests that the estimated peak time is 96 days from February 15, indicating the peak happening in the third week of May.

“It may be noted that we are incrementally adding around 15,000 cases over the peak of the previous day as of today, though such numbers are difficult to predict.

“Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra achieved a peak before the national peak in the first wave. Now new cases in Maharashtra seem to be stabilising but the share of cases in total of various other states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat) has increased in the current second wave and these are showing an increase in daily new cases,” Ghosh said.

So, if other states also implement strict actions and control the spread, then the national peak may come within the weeks after the Maharashtra peak, he added.

Vaccine update

The presentation said: “Spanish Flu in 1918 shows more deaths in later waves, thus vaccination is a must to avoid larger fatalities later.

“Injection to infection ratio shows that India made rapid improvement this year, but it is still below Israel, Chile and UK…Only 2.6 per cent of the population in the world is fully vaccinated, and in India only 1.2 per cent of population is fully vaccinated till now.”

The experience of other countries shows infections stabilise after 15 per cent of the population receives a second dose, it added.

Now that States are free to buy vaccines from manufacturers from May 1, ERD’s estimate for 13 States shows that the cost of vaccines at almost 15-20 per cent of States’ health expenditure budget (assuming half of the population in these states will get vaccinated by the Central Government), still it will be only 0.1 per cent of GDP.

This is significantly lower than the economic loss in GDP due to lockdown, which is already at 0.7 per cent of GDP, it added.

Vaccine Hesitancy Index

The ERD observed that the state-wise performance in case of vaccination is quite uneven.

“Our ‘Vaccine Hesitancy Index’ calculated as doses administered per 100 available shows that all N-E states and in states like Goa, Jharkhand, Assam, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh there is a vaccine hesitancy,” Ghosh said.

Give ambulance status to oxygen tankers

The ERD said all states should allow ambulance status to oxygen tankers so that they move faster, which will certainly help and reduce the transit time.

“Government of India should analyse the oxygen data on a daily basis and direct supply. This is purely a supply chain optimisation problem,” Ghosh said.

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