Hard choices loom for finance chiefs and their climate pledges, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Washington, Oct 15, 2021 -In speeches and communiques from top finance officials at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank this week, one word was ubiquitous: climate.

Leaders of the institutions and government ministers pledged action to meet the global climate goals of keeping warning below 1.5 degrees Celsius and reaching net zero emissions by 2050, with an eye towards next month’s COP26 climate change summit.

“I’m afraid it is time to roll up our sleeves and detail our plan of actions,” Britain’s Prince Charles said at a World Bank event Thursday.

“With action on climate change, biodiversity loss and a just transition more urgent than ever, I can only encourage us all to get to work and solve this problem.”

But behind the rhetoric lies the harsh reality of the extent of the work left to do to meet the goals, and the rancor around the issue.

Washington leaned on multilateral lenders worldwide to step up financing of climate friendly projects, even as activists launched a salvo at the World Bank president.

Meanwhile, the world’s largest asset manager warned that expensive investments are necessary to prevent catastrophe.

“Rich countries must put more taxpayer money to work in driving the net-zero transition abroad,” BlackRock chief Larry Fink wrote in The New York Times on Wednesday.

Reaching the net-zero emissions goal will require $1 trillion a year in investments aimed at poor countries, which Fink estimates would need $100 billion in yearly subsidies to be viable.

“While the figure seems daunting, especially as the world is recovering from the Covid pandemic, a failure to invest now will lead to greater costs later,” he said.

– ‘Personnel is policy’ – The meetings held semi-virtually in Washington came amid growing alarm over what unchecked climate change will do to the planet.

The World Bank last month in a disturbing report warned that reduced agricultural output, water scarcity, rising sea levels and other adverse effects of climate change could cause up to 216 million people to leave their homes and migrate within their own countries by 2050.

An IMF study estimated that direct and indirect subsidies of fossil fuels added up to $5.9 trillion or about 6.8 percent of global GDP in 2020, and helped undercut climate goals by keeping gas cheap.

While officials at the two Washington-based multilateral lenders insisted they are razor focused on climate change, not all were convinced.

On Thursday, 77 advocacy groups asked for World Bank President David Malpass to step aside.

Malpass has emphasized the World’s Bank’s climate investment and said it provides half of all multilateral lending towards such projects — a huge change from years past when the development lender financed controversial projects, criticized for their environmental impact.

But the groups said that since the 2015 Paris climate accord, the institution has steered $12 billion towards fossil fuel.

“Personnel is policy: The World Bank needs leadership that will support countries with real green and inclusive development pathways,” said Luisa Galvao of Friends of the Earth US, which signed the petition.

– Leaning on international banks – The actions of the United States during the meetings were closely watched, since Washington hold the most voting power at the organizations, but the world’s largest economy also is a major carbon emitter.

President Joe Biden however has promised a government-wide offensive to tackle climate change.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week convened leaders of several multilateral lenders — including the World Bank and developments banks in Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa — and pressed them to dedicate more capital towards projects intended to mitigate climate change.

She also announced that her department would study how climate change is affecting communities and households in the United States, which this year alone has seen deadly winter storms strike Texas and the Midwest, wildfires roast California and successive hurricanes pummel the East Coast.

But while the White House now has a greater emphasis on addressing what Yellen called an “existential threat,” agreement among the greater US political class on what to do about it remains elusive.

Biden has proposed two spending bills in Congress that could direct historic sums of money towards improving the country’s climate resiliency and cutting emissions, but they are mired in the rancorous and divided US Congress.

cs/hs



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Rupee slips by 2 paise to close at 74.20 against US dollar, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The rupee weakened by 2 paise to end at 74.20 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday as higher crude oil prices weighed on forex market sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 74.15 per dollar as against its previous close of 74.18.

It hovered in the range of 74.14 to 74.25 during the day before ending at 74.20 against the greenback.

“The Indian rupee remained under pressure on Friday on firm crude oil prices and as market participants remained vigilant ahead of US Core PCE Price Index data,” Saif Mukadam, Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.08 per cent to 91.74.

“Dollar is showing weakness amid Fed officials differing view on how long inflation is likely to stay high and when to tighten monetary policy. Market Sentiments improved on news that US President Joe Biden and a group of senators agreed on roughly USD 1 trillion infrastructure plan securing bipartisan deal,” he noted

The rupee may gain as number of COVID-19 cases in India continued to decline. Rupee may trade in the range of 73.55 to 74.50 in next couple of sessions, he added.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 226.04 points or 0.43 per cent higher at 52,925.04, while the broader NSE Nifty rose 72.55 points or 0.46 per cent to 15,863.00.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.34 per cent to USD 75.30 per barrel.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,890.94 crore, as per exchange data.



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Raghuram Rajan says privatisation is a blunder; Rajnish Kumar cites failures in private banks, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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As the government speeds up on privatisation of public sector entities, industry mavens are not sure about the move. Former RBI chairman Raghuram Rajan spoke against privatisation while Rajnish Kumar former chairman of SBI has said that there are failures in private banks as well.

The government has made it clear that it doesn’t want to have more than five entities in any business. That’s a strategic decision that the government has taken recently. But the government has been talking about reducing its stake in PSBs for a long time. It merged 10 PSBs into 4. There are many recommendations for the government to reduce its stake in banks to only 51%. The idea is this will give enough funds to the government and the banks will also become more professionalised. But while the government is thinking of divesting its stake, Raghuram Rajan believes that it has not benefited the developed countries like the US.

“Time has come to recognise the crucial sectors of the country to be preserved. The Indian government is trying hard to sell the public sector banks to corporate hands which is a grave concern for an economy like India. Time is to understand Privatization is a blunder,” Raghuram Rajan, former Governor RBI and IMF Chief Economist, tweeted.

Rajan was replying to US President Joe Biden’s tweet on the divestment of government companies.

The developed countries like the US too are finding it difficult to create jobs after disinvesting heavily. Biden tweeted about his focus on creating government jobs.

“After decades of disinvestment, our roads, bridges, and water systems are crumbling. We must pass the American Jobs Plan. Together, we will rebuild our country’s infrastructure and create millions of good-paying union jobs in the process,”

This is not the first time Rajan made his viewpoint clear on privatisation. In an interview with PTI in March, he said, “I think it would be a colossal mistake to sell the banks to industrial houses. It will also be politically infeasible to sell any decent-sized bank to foreign banks,”

Bank employees’ associations and federations are already opposing the bank privatisation decision and held the 3-4 day strike very recently.

In an interaction with ETBFSI, Rajnish Kumar, former Chairman of SBI presented a different view to this discussion. He said if the government’s agenda is to bring governance then the government should change the ownership. “If the government wants to improve only the governance they can shift the ownership of the PSBs to RBI. And the issue would have been resolved. RBI would become the sole regulator and banks would achieve similar results,” said Kumar.

He also added, “The major issue is how long should the government capitalise the PSBs. And the government’s policy is also that it doesn’t want more than four entities in non-strategic sectors. There can be a question whether private banks perform better? But there is not an easy answer to this because there are failures in private banks as well.”



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US ETFs see record money inflow this year, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Investment into US exchange traded funds (ETFs) has risen to record levels this year, driven by a rally in equities and investor preference for passive index-tracking funds over actively managed peers.

According to Refinitiv data, US ETFs attracted a record inflow of $324 billion in the first four months of this year, which was 180% higher than the same period of last year. At the same time, US mutual funds received an inflow of $318 billion, which was a 58% drop.

This surge in inflows is evidence of growing investor interest in ETFs, due to their lower fees and tax liabilities, and better returns compared with active funds in recent years.

Analysts said proposals by the Joe Biden administration to increase the US capital gains tax had also fuelled interest in ETFs.

“Over the last six months, flows have continued to be robust as the elevated savings pile of the private sector found its way into financial assets, benefitting ETFs,” said Komson Silapachai, vice president at investment management firm, Sage Advisory Services, based in Austin.

“The expected increase in capital gains tax later this year should result in a higher preference for ETFs versus mutual funds for the highest tax brackets.”

As most ETFs are passively managed, there is less amount of buying and selling taking place, which leads to lower capital gains and taxes.

Also, ETF redemptions take place through a mechanism called “in-kind transfer” in which ETFs have to deliver baskets of securities to authorized brokers instead of paying cash, which precludes them from being taxed.

According to Refinitiv data, U.S equity ETFs saw a cumulative inflow of $149.6 billion in the first four months of this year, while debt ETFs obtained $283.6 billion.

The Vanguard 500 index fund led this year’s inflows seeing net purchases of $20.7 billion, while iShares Core S&P 500 ETF and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund procured $11.8 billion and $9.6 billion respectively.

Analysts said the higher inflows were also due to the availability of a variety of ETFs which are focused on certain themes or sectors.

The surge in ETFs was prompted by an SEC rule in 2019 that eliminated some exemptive relief requirements that has made ETF launches expensive and time-consuming.

“The relaxation of the exemption rule requirements has allowed ETFs to be structured to cover narrower segments of the market such as marijuna stocks, ‘high conviction’ stocks, crypto-focused, etc.,” said Warren Ward, founder of financial planning firm, Warren Ward Associates in Houston.

“I suspect this is the main driver of the higher inflows, he said.

“Why choose a single stock if you can utilize a small basket of them instead?”



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Iran bans cryptocurrency mining for 4 months amid power cuts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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DUBAI: Iran has banned the energy-intensive mining of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin for nearly 4 months, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, as the country faces major power blackouts in many cities.

“The ban on the mining of cryptocurrencies is effective immediately until September 22 … Some 85% of the current mining in Iran is unlicensed,” Rouhani said in a televised speech at a cabinet meeting.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are created through a process known as mining, where powerful computers compete with each other to solve complex mathematical problems. The process is highly energy intensive, often relying on electricity generated by fossil fuels, which Iran is rich in.

As next month’s presidential election approaches, the blackouts have been widely criticised by Iranians. The government has blamed the power cuts on cryptocurrency mining, drought and surging electricity demand in summer.

According to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, around 4.5% of all Bitcoin mining takes place in Iran, allowing it to earn hundreds of millions of dollars from cryptocurrencies that can be used to lessen the impact of US sanctions.

Iran’s economy has been hit hard since 2018, when former President Donald Trump exited Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six powers and reimposed sanctions.

US President Joe Biden‘s administration and other global powers have been in talks with Iran to revive the deal.

Iran has accepted crypto mining in recent years, offering cheap power and requiring miners to sell their bitcoins to the central bank. Tehran allows cryptocurrencies mined in Iran to be used to pay for imports of authorised goods.

The prospect of cheap power has attracted miners, particularly from China, to Iran. Generating the electricity they use requires the equivalent of around 10 million barrels of crude oil a year, or 4% of total Iranian oil exports in 2020, according to Elliptic.



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Warren Buffett sees a ‘red hot’ economy with creeping inflation, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Katherine Chiglinsky

Warren Buffett delivered a clear verdict Saturday on the state of the U.S. economy as it emerges from the pandemic: red hot.

“It’s almost a buying frenzy,” the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chief executive officer said during the conglomerate’s annual meeting, which was held virtually from Los Angeles. “People have money in their pocket and they’re paying higher prices,” he said.

Buffett attributed the faster-than-expected recovery to swift and decisive rescue measures by the Federal Reserve and U.S. government, which helped kick 85% of the economy into “super high gear,” he said. But as growth roars back and interest rates remain low, many — including Berkshire — are raising prices and there is more inflation “than people would have anticipated six months ago,” he said.

Buffett reunited with his long-time friend and business partner Charlie Munger for this year’s meeting. Munger didn’t make it to last year’s meeting in Omaha, Nebraska — Buffett’s hometown — due to the shutdowns across the country. Some shareholders were relieved to see the duo fielding questions together again.

“I really feel that both Charlie and Warren displayed their usual and amazing level of acuity and intellectual energy,” said James Armstrong, who manages assets including Berkshire shares as president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates.

Buffett and Munger spent hours fielding questions, from the economy, to climate and diversity, the SPAC boom, taxes and succession. Here’s the lowdown:

Climate Pressure:
Berkshire faced pressure from two shareholders proposals, one to improve transparency related to its efforts on climate change. The topic was bound to be a feature at the meeting — and it was.

When asked about the proposals, Buffett stuck to his previous stance. Measures to produce big reports on diversity and climate for his business lines spanning energy to railroads were, he said, “asinine.” The proposals were later voted down.

Buffett was also asked about Berkshire’s stake in oil and gas producer Chevron Corp., which it disclosed earlier this year. Buffett said he felt “no compunction” in the least about its ownership in the company, which he said had benefited society in many ways. While he acknowledged the world is shifting away from hydrocarbons, people on the extreme sides of either argument are “a little nuts,” he said.

Greg Abel, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, called climate change a “material risk.” He added that they’re setting targets and spending $18 billion over 10 years on transmission infrastructure.

Killer SPACs:
Buffett warned investors that Berkshire might not have much luck striking deals amid the boom in special purpose acquisition companies that gripped the market over the past year.

“It’s a killer,” Buffett said about the influence of SPAC companies on Berkshire’s ability to find businesses to buy. “That won’t go on forever, but it’s where the money is now, and Wall Street goes where the money is.”

Buffett, 90, also spent part of Berkshire’s annual meeting Saturday addressing the recent boom in retail and day trading. A lot of people have entered the stock market “casino” over the past year, he said.

Tax:
Buffett said President Joe Biden’s proposals for a corporate tax hike would hurt Berkshire shareholders. He added that antitrust laws and tax policy could change things for the company but new tax laws wouldn’t alter its no-dividend policy.

Succession:

Buffett and Munger, 97, fielded the majority of questions at Saturday’s meeting, but their two top deputies Abel and Ajit Jain, who runs the insurers, also shared the stage. Investors were able to get a closer look at the pair who are considered the top candidates for the job.

Munger dropped a little mention of the post-Buffett years that drew speculation on social media about the most likely candidate to succeed Buffett. The CEO was pointing out that decentralization doesn’t work everywhere because it requires a certain type of culture that businesses need to have.

“Yeah, but we do,” Munger insisted. “And Greg will keep the culture.”

Abel has long been considered the top candidate to replace Buffett, especially when he was promoted to a vice chairman role overseeing all non-insurance operations, which gives him a wide array of responsibilities, including oversight of the railroad BNSF and the energy business.

Errors:
Buffett offered a few mea culpas during Saturday’s meeting. He noted that selling some Apple Inc. stock last year was a mistake and even said that Haven, the health care venture with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Amazon.com Inc., thought it could fight the “tape worm” of American health care costs but the worm won.

“That was probably a mistake,” Buffett said of those Apple stock sales last year. Berkshire still owned a roughly $110 billion stake in the iPhone maker at the end of March. “In fact, Charlie, in his usual low-key way, let me know that you thought it was a mistake too,” he said to Munger, who shared the stage with him.

Cash Pile:
Before the annual meeting started, the company released its first-quarter earnings, giving investors a dive into the 19.5% operating profit gain during the period.

Berkshire ended the quarter with a near-record $145.4 billion of cash on hand as it continued to generate funds faster than Buffett could deploy them. But Buffett also ended pulling back on some capital deployment levers during the period. He bought back just $6.6 billion of Berkshire’s own stock, short of the record $9 billion set in prior quarters, and ended up with the second-highest level of net stock sales in the first quarter in almost five years.



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Gold surpasses 45,000 mark today while silver struggles, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gold prices today rose in India as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased, while President Joe Biden‘s $2 trillion-plus jobs plan supported the yellow metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. The dollar index pulled back after hitting a five-month high on Wednesday, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

On MCX Gold May futures rose 0.23% to trade at Rs 45,040 per 10 gram, while Silver May futures traded 0.29% lower at Rs 63,630 per kg. Spot gold fell 0.16% to $1,713.20 per ounce, after touching its lowest since March 8 at $1,677.61 on Wednesday. In India, spot gold plunged by Rs 49 to Rs 43,925 per 10 gram on Wednesday reflecting overnight selling in global precious metal prices.

Gold is having support at $1700-1688 per troy ounce and resistance at $1724-1738 per troy ounce. Silver is having support at $24.20-23.80 per troy ounce and resistance at $24.88-25.20 per troy ounce

In the first three months of this year, gold is down about ₹5,000 per 10 gram in Indian markets and as compared to all-time high of ₹56,200, hit in August last year, the precious metal has corrected ₹11,000 from those levels.

According to Good Returns, the price of 10 grams of 22-carat-gold declined by Rs 250 to stand at Rs 43,370 from the earlier rate of Rs 43,620. Similar to the rates of 22-carat yellow metal, a fall of Rs 250 was witnessed in the prices of 10 grams of 24-carat gold which stood at Rs 44,370 compared to the previous day rate of Rs 44,620.



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Celebrations at Dalal Street; Sensex crosses 50k mark for the first time, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The BSE barometer of top 30 firms, S&P BSE Sensex, reached the 50,000-mark for the first time on Thursday, hitting a record high of 50,140 in opening deals. The market capitalisation of listed firms on the BSE, too, touched a record high of Rs 199 trillion.

Sensex’s journey from 45,000 to 50,000 currently is the fastest 5,000-point rally in the history of Dalal Street’s oldest equities index and was completed in just 48 days. It’s run from 40,000 to 45,000 levels took 561 days to accomplish.

According to experts, Foreign Portfolio Investors have been the main driver behind the market rally in India. After the initial bout of selling in the earlier part of 2020, FPIs have been consistently buying Indian equities so far. As per the data available with the NSE, In the year 2020, FPI made a net equity investment of Rs 1.5 lakh crore into the Indian market.

Vijay Chandok – MD & CEO, ICICI Securities said- “Sensex crossing the important milestone of 50,000 is a telling sign of economy and markets shifting orbits on broad-based recovery and better days ahead. The combination of strong capital inflows, low interest rates and leaner balance sheet of India corporates along with government measures for growth is expected to lift the economic growth ahead. The same is likely to resonate in capital markets, thereby keeping the markets buoyant in the long term.”

Global markets have remained supportive so far. Yesterday Wall Street hit new records and stock markets across the globe climbed after US President Joe Biden took office on Wednesday as traders were joyful over his plan to inject even more stimulus into the world’s largest economy

Investors’ sentiment turned positive after the government managed to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Fresh Covid cases have fallen from a peak of more than 1 lakh daily cases to around 15,000 per day now, which boosted hopes of faster economic recovery and further opening of the economy.

Gaurav Awasthi, Senior Partner – IIFL Wealth Management said- “Sensex at 50K is a psychological feel good factor and has no significance on the decision to invest or exit from equity markets. The relevant yardsticks to look at for investing include the current valuations and future earnings trajectory of underlying companies. The longer term view remains positive given the strong tailwinds in a host of industries including IT, pharma and manufacturing. However, the current valuations do warrant some caution with likelihood of increased volatility in the short term.”

Experts also believe that the forthcoming Budget, just 10 days away from now, will also prove to be critical for the markets, as it may showcase the government’s agenda for reforms and growth of the economy going forward. Many also believe that as Sensex crosses 50k, valuations look stretched. Valuations are a function of earnings, and earnings are not coming through making it a key risk at the current juncture.

“I don’t think the market is overvalued by a big margin. It is just that it is looking at the future with a lot of positivity. Now, if those corporate earnings materialise, those growth materialises then Sensex will continue to rise. But please remember, Sensex will go up and down. From its fair value, it can become cheaper and more expensive. Very few people will be able to predict how Sensex will move in the short term”- said Motilal Oswal, MD and CEO, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.



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Nifty ends below 14,450 dragged by financials, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Sensex managed to hold on to the 49,000 mark despite falling 550 points. Nifty fell 1.11% at 14,433. All sectoral indices were in the negative zone, with banks, IT and pharma worst hit. At close, Nifty bank index traded lower at Rs 32,246 down by -0.84%, while BSE Bankex ended at 36,540 down by -0.99%.

Amongst the top losers were- PNB at Rs 35 (-2.85), followed by ICICI bank at Rs 543 (-1.86), Kotak Mahindra at Rs 1863 (-1.52), Bank of Baroda at Rs (-1.38%), SBI at Rs 303 (-1.11%), Induslnd Bank at Rs 965 (-0.38%), Axis bank at Rs 674 (-0.17%). IDFC first Bank traded in the green adding 4.76% at Rs 48.

Nifty Financial Services ended at 15,453 down by 1%. Amongst the top losers were HDFC at Rs 2,632 down by -1.91% followed by Indiabulls hsg at Rs 230 (-1.03%), Cholamandalam at Rs 424 (-0.48%). Bajaj Finance and Power Finance traded green adding 0.13% and 0.41% respectively.

Other key takeaways

Economic recovery likely to boost gold demand in India this year: WGC
Gold demand appears to be positive in India as the consumer sentiment is likely to recover in 2021, from its dismal performance due to the coronavirus pandemic-related disruptions and volatile price movement, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC).

Initial data about the Dhanteras festival in November suggest that while jewellery demand was still below average, it had substantially recovered from the lows seen in the second quarter (April-June 2020) of last year, according to the report.

Budget session to begin from Jan 29, Budget on Feb 1:
The Union Budget 2021-22 would be presented on February 1, confirmed the Lok Sabha Secretariat. The Parliament session would be starting from January 29, and would be held in two phases.

“The fifth session of 17th Lok Sabha will commence on Friday, the 29th January, 2021. Subject to exigencies of government business, the session is likely to conclude on Thursday, the 8th April, 2021,” said an official press release by the Lok Sabha Secretariat.

Indian bond yields rise:
India’s benchmark bond yield rose on Friday to a three-week high as a lack of an open market operation announcement disappointed investors ahead of a debt sale and variable rate reverse repo auction later in the day.

The Reserve Bank of India last week said it would conduct a variable rate reverse repo auction for 2 trillion rupees ($27 billion) on Jan. 15 on review of the evolving liquidity and financial conditions.

Rupee ends at days high
The movement in USDINR spot is in tandem with other Asian peers and going ahead the optimism over US stimulus package will keep it lower. Indian rupee ended marginally lower at 73.12, amid selling saw in the domestic equity market. It opened lower at 73.08 per dollar versus Thursday’s close of 73.04 and traded in the range of 72.99-73.17.

Wall Street ends lower:
Wall Street closed lower on Thursday after making a u-turn toward the end of the session as reports emerged about U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s pandemic aid proposal following earlier data that showed a weakening labor market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 68.95 points, or 0.22%, at 30,991.52 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 16.31 points, or 0.12%, to 13,112.64. The S&P 500 lost 14.3 points, or 0.38%, to close at 3,795.54.



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