Auto debit bounce rates drop in Oct to pre-Covid levels, may fall further in festive season, BFSI News, ET BFSI
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Auto-debit payment bounce rates have dropped to near pre-Covid levels in October in tandem with the opening up of the economy as the pandemic retreated.Of the 86.6 million transactions initiated in October, 27 million transactions, or 31.24 per cent, failed, while 59.52 million were successful, according to the NACH data.
In value terms, 24.83 per cent of the transactions declined in October — the lowest since January 2020.
Volume-wise, the bounce rates were at similar levels seen during pre-Covid wave months of January and February of 2020, and by value, 260 basis points (bps) better than January-March 2021 period, which was the best quarter last year in terms of recovery for the economy.
Improvement over September
On a month-on-month basis, bounce rates have declined 50-60 bps by volume/value. Bounce rates were 31.7% and 25.4% by volume and value, respectively, for September. In August, these figures were at 33% and 26.8% by volume and value, respectively, while in July they were 33.2% and 27.4% by volume and value.
Despite the steady improvement, bounce rates continued to remain above the average levels of 2019. The current bounce rates by value are nearly 300 basis points higher than pre-Covid levels. Most banks and non-bank lenders have reported an increase in fresh disbursements and improvement in collections continues to remain their top priority.
Collection efficiencies
Collection efficiency improved in the September quarter, though slippages have been high in the retail and MSME segment the quantum is likely to have moderated sequentially, keeping asset quality in check, according to analysts.
Typically, auto-debit transactions are for recurring payments such as EMIs and insurance premiums although it does not capture intra-bank transactions. With the second wave of the pandemic leading to localised lockdowns and impacting economic activities, bounce rates had started to climb up from April 2021 after easing from December 2020.
In the last two months, as Covid cases have come down in most parts of the country and the economy has opened up again, bounce rates have started coming down again. Many lenders have reported that collection efficiencies have returned to normal and are at the pre-second wave levels.
Asset quality recovery
Non-bank lenders and housing finance companies, which suffered during the first quarter of this fiscal, are likely to report a steady recovery in asset quality and demand for fresh loans along with improved payment collections in the September quarter.
“The first quarter of fiscal 2022 was impacted by the second Covid wave. Relative to 1QFY22, we expect disbursement volumes of 170-230% for most Affordable Housing/Vehicle Financiers. Impact on AUM growth is likely to be higher for short duration products like Vehicle loans as collections held up well in 2QFY22,” Motilal Oswal Securities said in a note.
For vehicle financiers, or MFIs, the collection efficiencies are likely to be in the 90-100% range. After the high levels of restructuring witnessed in 1Q, a relatively lower incremental restructuring is likely in the second quarter.
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