Is the worst yet to over for Indian Banks?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Fitch Ratings expects a moderately worse sector outlook for Indian banks for the next fiscal based on muted expectations for new business and revenue generation, and deteriorating asset quality.

The disproportionate shock to India’s informal economy and small businesses, coupled with high unemployment and declining private consumption, have yet to fully manifest on bank balance sheets, it said.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to pose challenges to Indian banks‘ improving financial performance once asset-quality risks manifest in the financial year ending March 2022.

Forbearance help

Indian banks reported lower impaired loans and improved profitability for the nine months ended December 2020 due to various forbearance measures and continued large write-offs. Indian banks – particularly state banks – remained more risk-averse than in prior years, which was reflected in their weak credit growth.

The state’s less-than-adequate recapitalisation plans for its banks further underscores the risk, which will likely keep risk aversion high among banks amid continuing uncertainty about asset quality and an uneven economic recovery.

As the forbearance measures unwind, Fitch expects Indian banks to reverse the improvements in asset quality and profitability, with state banks more vulnerable to higher stress than private banks, which have better profitability and higher contingent reserves and capitalisation.

PSB hit

Public sector banks also have limited core capital buffers in the event of further asset stress, which is unlikely to be remediated solely via the state’s planned capital injections of USD 5.5 billion.

The plan is well below Fitch’s estimated capital requirement of USD 15 billion to USD 58 billion under varying stress scenarios.

“The strategy to either not lend or lend only to capital-efficient sectors is likely to continue as low market valuations leave state banks with limited scope to access fresh equity on their own,” Fitch added.

Shallow growth

It projects India’s GDP growth at 11 per cent in the next fiscal. The faster-than-expected GDP rebound in the December quarter is positive, but many sectors continue to operate well below capacity.

Besides, the decline in private consumption, and reports of rising urban utility-bill defaults and social security withdrawals point towards stress among retail customers.

“Fitch believes that the SME sector faces a litmus test in FY22 as short-term credit support extended in FY21, which, in our view, deferred the recognition of stress, comes up for refinancing,” Fitch added.



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Canara Bank, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Public sector lender Canara Bank on Thursday said that banking services may get affected later this month due to the proposed strike by several bank unions.

“We have been informed by the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) that the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) has given a call for strike in the banking industry on March 15 and March 16, for issues relating to industry level and not for any bank-level issues,” Canara Bank said in a regulatory filing.

Canara Bank said it is taking necessary steps for smooth functioning of bank branches and offices on the days of the proposed strike.

“However, in the event of strike materialising, the functioning of the branches/offices may be impacted,” said the lender.

A host of bank unions have given a call for strike on March 15-16.

AIBEA, AIBOC, NCBE, AIBOA, BEFI, INBEF, IBOC, NOBW, NOBO and AINBOF are the bank unions that have given a call for strike against the proposed privatization of two state-owned lenders by the government.



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IBA CEO, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Sunil Mehta, Chief Executive Officer of Indian Banks‘ Association believes the budget is an excellent budget especially looking at the present setup circumstances where everybody was looking at the funding of the revenue through increase in personal taxation, corporate taxation and wealth tax but nothing of that sort has been announced in the budget. The investment push that has been made in the infrastructure and health sector is something that is really going to help and was one of the major needs of the country and our finance ministry has very aptly completed this task.

Mehta said, “The impact of AMCs and ARC, let me tell you that this proposal was sent to the government by Indian Bank association so I can tell you the basis on which we have submitted the proposal and what we wanted out of this. The biggest challenge in the banking space is that if an Investor wants to invest in a particular fund or an asset then they’ll resort to 10-20 different banks who are part of that consortium and resolve that debt with them and onboard it. Sometimes when 20 banks sit together and they go into different mechanism, it gets difficult to reach a consensus for taking a proper treatment of the asset.”

He added, “The first and the foremost advantage that the national reconstruction company will provide is consolidation of the debt. The debt which is spread out in 10-20 different entities of the consortium or the multiple banking arrangement, it will be consolidated into one entity which will provide ease of resolution. In a multiple banking arrangement, there is always a difference of opinion which makes it difficult to reach a resolution plan. When a particular asset is transferred to an AMC, which has specialisation in the particular area and thus can take a more informed decision.”

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Concerns ahead despite good Q3 results

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Third quarter results of banks have indicated banks show a rise in net profit but concerns are evident ahead. Bank of Baroda reported a standalone net profit of ₹1,061 crore in the third quarter against a net loss of ₹1,407 crore in the year-ago quarter. Private sector lender ICICI Bank reported a 19.1 per cent increase in its standalone net profit in the third quarter of the fiscal at ₹4,939.59 crore.

The bank had a net profit of ₹4,146.46 crore in the same period last fiscal. However, Axis Bank reported a 36.4 per cent drop in its net profit in the third quarter this fiscal despite a robust rise in net interest income as provisions rose sharply. For the quarter ended December 31, 2020, Axis Bank’s standalone net profit stood at ₹1,116.60 crore as against ₹1,757 crore in the same period a year ago.

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RBI open to examining bad bank proposal, says Shaktikanta Das; wants lenders to identify risks early

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The RBI Governor said that the idea of a bad bank has been under discussion for a long time.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das today said that the central bank is open to looking at a proposal around setting up a bad bank. “Bad bank under discussion for a long time. We at RBI have regulatory guidelines for Asset reconstruction companies and are open to looking at any proposal to set up a bad bank,” Shaktikanta Das said while delivering the 39th Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture on Saturday. Das touched up on a range of issue during the event as he lauded the role played by the RBI during a pandemic.

Bad Bank for India?

The RBI Governor said that the idea of a bad bank has been under discussion for a long time now but added that the RBI tries to keep its regulatory framework in sync with the requirement of the times. “We are open (to look at bad bank proposal) in the sense, if any proposal comes we will examining it and issuing the regulatory guidelines. But, then it is for the government and the private players to plan for it,” Das said. He added that RBI will only take a view on any proposal only after examining it. 

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The Idea of setting up a bad bank to help the banking system of the country has picked up after Economic Affairs Secretary, Tarun Bajaj earlier last month, said that the government is exploring all options, including a bad bad, to help the health of the lenders in the country. However, earlier in June last year, Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian had opined that setting up a bad bank may not be a potent option to address the NPA woes in the banking sector.

Discussion the idea of bad banks, domestic brokerage and research firm Kotak Securities this week said that it may be an idea whose time has passed. “Today, the banking system is relatively more solid with slippages declining in the corporate segment for the past two years and high NPL coverage ratios, which enable faster resolution. Establishing a bad bank today would aggregate but not serve the purpose that we have observed in other markets,” a recent report by Kotak Securities said.

Banks, NBFCs need to identify risks early

Looking ahead, Shaktikanta Das said that integrity and quality of governance are key to good health and robustness of banks and NBFCs. “Some of the integral elements of the risk management framework of banks would include effective early warning systems and a forward-looking stress testing framework. Banks and NBFCs need to identify risks early, monitor them closely and manage them effectively,” he added.

Talking about recapitalising banks, the RBI governor said that financial institutions in India have to walk on a tight rope. The RBI has advised all lenders, to assess the impact of the pandemic on their balance sheets and work out possible mitigation measures including capital planning, capital raising, and contingency liquidity planning, among others. “Preliminary estimates suggest that potential recapitalisation requirements for meeting regulatory norms as well as for supporting growth capital may be to the extent of 150 bps of Common Equity Tier-I 10 capital ratio for the banking system,” Shaktikanta Das said.

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