RBI tweak will lead to more NPAs for non-banking lenders: ICRA

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The Reserve Bank of India’s modified norms on non-performing asset (NPA) recognition and upgration will lead to a spike in the NPAs of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), including housing finance companies (HFCs), in the near term, ICRA has cautioned.

The credit rating agency expected the stricter NPA recognition and upgradation requirement to push up the March 2022 NPAs of NBFCs and HFCs by 160-180 basis points (bps) and 60-80 bps, respectively, over the March 2021 level. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point.

ICRA observed that this will impact earnings over the next few quarters if the forward flows into the NPA category were not contained.

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“The increase in NPAs and corresponding increase in provisions as per IRAC (income recognition and asset classification), on account of the new RBI guidelines, is not expected to significantly impact earnings in the near term.

“However, it would be critical to contain the flow into the NPA category over the medium term,” the agency said in a report.

Internal controls

AM Karthik, Vice-President-Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, said the increase in NPAs factors in the expected slippages from the restructured book, slippages from the 31- to 90-day category (Stage-2), and the delay in upgradation to the standard category.

He felt that entities would have to tighten their internal controls and augment their MIS for timely recognition and updation of collections, especially cash collections.

NBFC regulation needs to be strengthened

ICRA estimates the restructured books of NBFCs and HFCs to have increased to 4.1-4.4 per cent and 1.8-2.2 per cent, respectively, as of September 2021, vis-à-vis 2.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively, in March 2021.

The agency estimated the slippage from the NBFC restructured book to be higher, at 20-25 per cent vis-a-vis 3-5 per cent for HFC, considering the prolonged stress witnessed in key NBFC segments, namely vehicle, business loans and so on.

Arrears

Referring to the norm for the upgrade of an NPA to standard category only after all arrears are cleared, the agency said the movement to standard category for NBFC NPAs would be impacted as their target borrowers generally have a limited ability to clear all dues.

Until now, NBFCs have been upgrading an NPA account even with a partial payment of the outstanding overdues, as long as the total overdues on the reporting date were for less than 90 days.

Tightening processes

Provisions made by NBFCs under IndAS are generally higher than the IRAC norms, and the provisions were further augmented because of the pandemic.

Thus, no significant incremental impact is envisaged on the near-term profitability, ICRA said, adding that pressure would be felt over the medium term if the forward flows into the NPA category is not contained.

“Entities would have to tighten their internal processes to capture their collections, especially cash collections by branches, agents etc. It is estimated that 40-45 per cent of NBFC and 5-10 per cent of HFC collections are in cash,” the agency said.

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Report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai, The domestic capital markets continue to remain on an upward trajectory after a strong performance in FY2021.

The average daily turnover (ADTO) increased to Rs 27.92 lakh crore in FY2021 from Rs 14.39 lakh crore in FY2020, registering an annual growth of 94 per cent. Transaction volumes remain strong in the current fiscal, with the markets clocking an ADTO of Rs 56.36 lakh crore in H1 FY2022.

As per ICRA, the market performance has been supported by favourable liquidity in both domestic and international markets, optimism related to a recovery after the graded reopening of the economy, progress on vaccination rollout and steady retail investor momentum.

Throwing more light, Samriddhi Chowdhary, Vice President & Sector Head – Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA says, “The pool of ICRA-rated bank brokerages reported a strong performance in FY2021 with the estimated average daily turnover (ADTO) increasing 28 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 1.51 lakh crore from Rs 1.18 lakh crore in FY2020, led by the healthy growth in the retail segment.

Despite the changes in the margin requirements, the performance remained healthy in Q1 FY2022 with an estimated ADTO of Rs 1.64 lakh crore, driven by favourable retail investor sentiment. However, the market share of the sample pool of ICRA-rated bank brokerages in terms of transaction volumes declined in FY2021 and moderated further in Q1 FY2022 as they continue to lose share to discount brokers.”

Bank-brokerages reported a strong uptick in earnings in FY2021 registering a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth of 40 per cent in total revenues and 80 per cent in profit after tax. The cost structure and operational efficiency of the bank brokerage companies also improved over the past few years with focus on the rationalisation of branches coupled with cautious efforts towards the transition to a digital business model, thereby improving the operational efficiency across brokerages.

Bank-brokerages have been increasingly looking at other non-broking sources of income, namely capital market lending business, distribution income and investment banking revenue. Bank-brokerages have significantly scaled up the margin funding business over the past fiscal, moving in line with the capital market rally, which has resulted in an increase in their borrowing level.

The retail broking segment has witnessed a significant disruption in the last few years due to the growing prominence of discount brokerages. The competitively priced offerings of discount brokers and the no-frill basic accounts and services have resulted in the realignment of the pricing strategy across the industry.

Adds Chowdhary, “apart from attracting clients from full-service providers, discount brokerage houses have helped expand the market by bringing on board a large number of first-time investors. While the market share for bank brokerages in terms of active clients moderated in FY2021, primarily owing to the faster scaling up of the discount brokerage houses, they reported a strong performance as reflected by the healthy operating metrics and surge in earnings.”

ICRA expects bank brokerages to continue to build their retail franchise and focus more on technology and digital models for customer acquisition. Supported by these factors, bank brokerages are expected to register a healthy growth in client addition as well as transaction volumes, though their share in total active clients would moderate owing to the rapid expansion of the discount broking model. The blended yields are expected to compress going forward, though the focus on fee and fund-based income would support the profitability.

Adds Chowdhary, “Bank brokerages are expected to continue to enjoy better brand recall, trust, higher credibility and financial flexibility by virtue of being a part of banking groups and would, therefore, remain a prominent part of the industry value chain. Bank brokerages are also increasingly looking at the emerging demographic opportunities and new geographical base, which is facilitated through online channels. Going forward, the ability of the bank brokers to effectively ramp up their digital initiatives, attract millennial clients and expand to a newer geographical base such as Tier II and Tier III cities would be critical.”

ICRA expects the net operating income (NOI) of bank brokerages to grow 20-25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in FY2022 supported by steady broking income along with an uptick in the margin funding and distribution businesses; the ramp-up of other capital markets related businesses could further support the earnings profile. The net profit for bank brokerages is expected to grow 17-20 per cent during the same period.

The borrowings levels of bank brokerages are expected to increase in the current fiscal to support their margin funding business. The gearing levels of bank brokerages are expected to be in the range of 1.5-2 times in FY2022 at an industry level while the gearing across entities would vary between 1 to 3 times based on the scale of margin funding operations.



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HFCs’ AUM to grow 8-10 per cent in FY22 against 6 per cent in FY21: ICRA

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Housing Finance Companies’ (HFCs) growth is expected to pick up in the rest of FY2022 despite headwinds in the first quarter (Q1) of FY2022, but weak asset quality is likely to keep their profitability subdued, according to ICRA.

The credit rating agency estimated that HFCs’ portfolio is likely to grow by 8-10 per cent in FY2022 against 6 per cent in FY2021.

ICRA expects gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) to improve marginally from June 2021 level (of 3.6 per cent), but to stay elevated and higher by 40-70 basis points as on March 31, 2022, as compared to March 31, 2021 (of 2.9 per cent).

The agency opined that though the portfolio growth is expected to drive an improvement in revenue, the expected elevated credit costs are likely to keep the profitability subdued in FY2022.

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ICRA observed that healthy demand in the industry, increasing level of economic activity and increasing vaccination in the country are expected to result in a steady growth in disbursements and improvement in collection efficiency (CE) in FY2022.

Covid impact

Sachin Sachdeva, Vice-President and Sector Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, said: “Overall on-book portfolio of HFCs in India is estimated at ₹11.0 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, with exposures across home loans (HLs), loan against property (LAP), construction finance (CF), and lease rental discounting (LRD).

“The Covid-19-induced disruptions moderated the portfolio growth to 6 per cent in FY2021. Nevertheless, despite nil sequential growth in Q1 FY2022, aforementioned favourable factors provide hope for better growth prospects in FY2022 with an estimated growth rate of 8-10 per cent.”

FinMin allows small HFCs to take recourse to SARFAESI law

The agency noted that HFCs’ asset quality metrics weakened quite sharply in Q1 FY2022 because of the localised lockdowns imposed by various States/Union Territories (UTs) on account of the second wave, which impacted the borrowers’ cash flows and hence the CE.

“The jump in overdues was the sharpest in the recent past, as borrower-level liquidity got stretched in the absence of loan moratorium. The marginal borrowers, therefore, slipped into the NPA (non-performing asset)/overdue category in Q1 FY2022,” ICRA said.

Consequently, the Gross NPAs increased to 3.6 per cent as on June 30, 2021, from 2.9 per cent as on March 31, 2021 (2.3 per cent as on March 31, 2020).

Per the agency’s assessment, though the asset quality deteriorated across segments, CF was worst hit followed by LAP and HL. Thus, entities with high exposure to CF witnessed a higher impact than the industry average.

The headline asset quality numbers are expected to moderate slightly from current level as the trend in the CE continues to remain encouraging.

Nevertheless, ICRA expects a 40-70 basis points (bps) increase (net of recoveries and write-offs) in GNPAs by March 31, 2022, from GNPAs as on March 31, 2021, assuming there are no further Covid-19 induced lockdowns. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Sachdeva said the pre-tax return on average managed assets (profit before tax/PBT per cent) for FY2022 is likely to remain similar to FY2021 level (1.9-2.0 per cent). Optimistically, if the collection efficiency trends post a steady and healthy revival and if slippages remain contained, then PBT per cent may also benefit from reversals in provisions.

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HFCs’ portfolio to grow by 8-10% this fiscal: ICRA

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Housing finance companies are expected to register a growth of eight to 10 per cent in their portfolio this fiscal, ratings agency ICRA said on Monday.

Noting that the second wave of Covid-19 infections impacted business sentiments in the first quarter of the fiscal, ICRA said growth is expected to pick up in the rest of 2021-22.

“The healthy demand in the industry, increasing level of economic activity and increasing vaccination in the country are expected to result in a steady growth in disbursements and improvement in collection efficiency in 2021-22,” it said.

However, while the portfolio growth is expected to drive an improvement in revenue, the expected elevated credit costs are likely to keep the profitability subdued in the fiscal, it cautioned.

Asset quality metrics

Asset quality metrics weakened quite sharply in the first quarter of the fiscal but the headline asset quality numbers are expected to moderate slightly from current level as the trend in the collection efficiency continues to remain encouraging, the agency further said.

ICRA expects a 40to 70 basis points increase (net of recoveries and write-offs) in the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) by March 31, 2022 from GNPAs as on March 31, 2021, assuming there are no further Covid-19 induced lockdowns.

“Overall, on-book portfolio of HFCs in India is estimated at ₹11 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, with exposures across home loans, loan against property, construction finance, and lease rental discounting. The Covid-19-induced disruptions moderated the portfolio growth to 6 per cent in 2020-21,” noted Sachin Sachdeva, Vice-President and Sector Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA.

The pre-tax return on average managed assets (PBT per cent) for the fiscal is likely to remain similar to levels of last fiscal at 1.9 to 2 per cent, he further said, adding that if the collection efficiency trends post a steady and healthy revival and if slippages remain contained, then PBT per cent may also benefit from reversals in provisions.

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High interest rates make Bajaj Finance FD the ideal investment avenue for one’s Diwali bonus, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Pune (Maharashtra) [India], November 3: The commencement of Diwali is accompanied by the joy of receiving one’s Diwali bonus. With the much-awaited Diwali bonuses being credited widely, it can be tempting to splurge and treat oneself to some extravagance. Still, it would be a more prudent choice to invest a portion of one’s hard-earned income.

For working professionals, saving and investing should be the top priorities for budgeting their earnings. This is one reason why one must actively seek out better ways of investing their money. Amidst the sea of uncertainties and volatile market movements, the fixed deposit has proved to be a safe harbour for investors. Bajaj Finance is one such financier that offers investors the dual benefit of high FD interest rates along with deposit safety.
Here’s why one should invest in this instrument to yield high risk-free returns this Diwali:
Benefit from high FD interest rates

Bajaj Finance offers one of the highest FD interest rates, up to 6.50%, along with an extra rate benefit of 0.10% p.a. for online investors. Senior citizens get an additional rate benefit of 0.25% p.a. irrespective of the mode of investment.

Consider an example where an individual invests Rs. 2,00,000 choosing a 5-year tenor in a Bajaj Finance online FD, the table shows the expected returns at maturity.

Loan against fixed deposit for cash crunches

Bajaj Finance Fixed Deposit offers a loan against the FD facility to address emergencies. This way, investors will not have to break their FD and thus, benefit from accumulated interest. The maximum loan amount one can avail of is 75% of the FD value.

Online FD calculator to estimate returns

To make financial planning simple, Bajaj Finserv gives free access to an online fixed deposit calculator. With it, investors can determine the returns they’ll earn at maturity. One needs to select the investment amount and tenor to get the results.

Easy online application process

Amidst all the celebrations, investors can kick-start their investment journey from the comfort of their homes. Booking an FD with Bajaj Finance is now easier than ever with an end-to-end paperless and digital process. One has to fill an online form and submit a few essential documents to start investing. Investing online can fetch investors aged below 60 years an additional rate benefit of 0.10% p.a.

Highest safety and credibility

Market-linked investments may offer high returns, but one must keep a close eye on them to shield them from fluctuations and capital loss. Fixed deposits, in this case, are incredibly safe, owing to their non-equity-linked nature as opposed to mutual funds and stocks. Moreover, Bajaj Finance FDs come with the highest ratings of MAAA and FAAA from ICRA and CRISIL, ensuring that their savings grow safely. This way, investors can be confident that their earnings are in safe hands.

Investors can consider investing their bonuses in a Bajaj Finance Fixed Deposit to grow their savings without worrying about market uncertainties.



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Despite high EMI moratoriums, loan recasts by banks stay low, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The pandemic has hit individual borrowers more than industries and businesses, going by the recast of loans announced under the government’s one-time restructuring scheme.

The eight banks that have declared second-quarter results have announced reast of Rs 27,708 crore worth of loans under the One-Time Restructurig 2.0, of which 80% recasts are personal loans and the rest 20% availed for business and by MSMEs.

The highest loan recasts were at HDFC Bank at Rs 17,395 crore, followed by another private lender ICICI Bank at Rs 4,156 crore.

The recasts by MSMEs was smaller, possibly due to other forms of emergency credit available to them.

What Icra says

Of the total restructured loan book of Rs 2 lakh crore for the banks as on June 30, 2021, the restructuring under the first coronavirus wave is estimated at 51 per cent of the total restructuring of Rs 1 lakh crore, while restructuring under the second wave is estimated at 31 per cent of the total restructuring or Rs 0.6 lakh crore, it said.

Considering that 30-40 per cent of the loan book was under moratorium during Q1 FY2020 across most banks, the loan restructuring at two per cent of advances after the second wave is a positive surprise and much lower than its earlier estimates, rating agency Icra said.

Resolution Framework 2.0

Despite high EMI moratoriums, loan recasts by banks stay low

In May this year, the Reserve Bank announced a slew of measures including loan restructuring for individual and small businesses hit hard second Covid wave.

This recast was for those who had not availed restructuring under any of the earlier frameworks, including the Resolution Framework 1.0 of RBI dated August 6, 2020, and who are classified as standard as on March 31, 2021, shall be eligible for the Resolution Framework 2.0.



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Will profitable PSUs need capital support from govt this year?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The government is likely to pump capital in public sector banks during the last quarter of the current financial year to meet regulatory requirements.

The government in Budget 2021-22 made an allocation of Rs 20,000 crore for capital infusion in the state-owned banks.The capital position of banks would be reviewed in the next quarter, and depending on the requirement, infusion will be made to meet the regulatory needs.

In the current fiscal so far, all 12 public sector banks have posted a profit, which is being ploughed back to bolster the balance sheet of the banks.

Going forward, the rise in stressed assets would determine capital requirement. If numbers are anything to go by, the financial health of public sector banks are showing gradual signs of improvement across the spectrum.

What Icra says

As per Icra’s estimates, public sector banks (PSBs) may not need the capital budgeted by the government for FY22, even with enhanced capital requirements.

However, banks are advised to keep provisions for any unforeseen events as it would provide confidence to banks, investors and credit growth. Icra said that large private sector banks (PVBs) also remain well-capitalised though few mid-sized ones could need to raise capital.

“We continue to maintain our credit growth estimate of 7.3-8.3 per cent for banks for FY2022 compared to 5.5 per cent for FY2021,” Icra said.

Despite expectations of moderation in gains on bond portfolios because of expectations of rising bond yields in FY22, the return on equity for banks is likely to remain steady at 4.4-7.6 per cent for PSBs (5.1 per cent in FY21) and 9.5-9.9 per cent for PVBs (10.5 per cent in FY2021), the report said.

PCA framework

Will profitable PSUs need capital support from govt this year?

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India removed UCO Bank and Indian Overseas Bank from its prompt corrective action framework, following improvement in various parameters and written commitment from them that would comply with the minimum capital norms.

The only public sector lender left under the PCA framework is Central Bank of India.

PCA is triggered when banks breach certain regulatory requirements such as return on asset, minimum capital, and quantum of the non-performing asset. These restrictions disable the bank in several ways to lend freely and force it to operate under a restrictive environment that turns out to be a hurdle to growth.

Last financial year, the government infused Rs 20,000 crore in the five public sector banks. Out of this, Rs 11,500 crore had gone to three banks under PCA — UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, and Central Bank of India.

The government infused Rs 4,800 crore in Central Bank of India, Rs 4,100 crore in Indian Overseas Bank and Kolkata-based UCO Bank got Rs 2,600 crore. The government has infused over Rs 3.15 lakh crore into public sector banks (PSBs) in the 11 years through 2018-19.

In 2019-20, the government infused a capital of Rs 70,000 crore into PSBs to boost credit for a strong impetus to the economy.



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ICRA, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) and net NPAs of banks are likely to decline to 6.9-7 per cent and 2.2-2.3 per cent, respectively, by the end of March 2022 as compared to 7.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, as of March 31, 2021, according to a report by rating agency ICRA.

GNPAs and NNPAs stood at 8.6 per cent and three per cent, respectively, as on March 31, 2020. “The GNPAs and NNPAs are expected to further decline to 6.9-7 per cent and 2.2-2.3 per cent by March 2022, which will continue to be a relief for the bottom-line (profit) of lenders,” the credit rating agency said in the report.

The fresh NPA generation rate (or slippages) remained elevated during the second wave in absence of regulatory relief such as moratorium, it said.

The gross fresh slippages during the April-June 2021 quarter stood at Rs 1 lakh crore (annualised slippage rate of 4.1 per cent) compared with Rs 2.5 lakh crore or 2.7 per cent during FY2021.

Fresh bank NPAs to stay elevated in Q2, but fall in second half: ICRA

Fresh NPAs

The agency expects this to remain elevated at Rs 0.7-0.8 lakh crore (2.8-3.2 per cent) during Q2 FY2022 but moderate to Rs 1.1-1.2 lakh crore (2-2.4 per cent) during H2 of this fiscal as the impact of the second wave wanes.

Of the total restructured loan book of Rs 2 lakh crore for the banks as on June 30, 2021, the restructuring under the first coronavirus wave is estimated at 51 per cent of the total restructuring of Rs 1 lakh crore, while restructuring under the second wave is estimated at 31 per cent of the total restructuring or Rs 0.6 lakh crore, it said.

Considering that 30-40 per cent of the loan book was under moratorium during Q1 FY2020 across most banks, the loan restructuring at two per cent of advances after the second wave is a positive surprise and much lower than our earlier estimates.

Bank capitalisation

As per ICRA’s estimates, the public sector banks (PSBs) may not need the capital budgeted by the government for FY2022 even with enhanced capital requirements. However, it provisions for any unforeseen events and shall provide confidence to banks as well as investors and credit growth.

It said large private sector banks (PVBs) also remain well-capitalised though few mid-sized PVBs could need to raise capital.“We continue to maintain our credit growth estimate of 7.3-8.3 per cent for banks for FY2022 compared to 5.5 per cent for FY2021,” it said.

Despite expectations of moderation in gains on bond portfolios because of expectations of rising bond yields in FY2022, the return on equity for banks is likely to remain steady at 4.4-7.6 per cent for PSBs (5.1 per cent in FY2021) and 9.5-9.9 per cent for PVBs (10.5 per cent in FY2021), the report said.



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Timely recoveries crucial for profitability of sale-bound IDBI Bank, says Icra, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Timely recoveries will be a key driver of net profitability for IDBI Bank, in the absence of which it may remain at sub-optimal levels in the near to medium term, rating agency Icra has said.

“IDBI Bank’s profitability includes one-time income driven by recoveries from fully-provided legacy stressed assets, and it has utilised the same for accelerated provisioning on other stressed assets and potential asset quality stress in future. Incremental slippages could remain high, given the reasonably large overdue book amid the weak operating environment and certain other vulnerable exposures, the rating agency said in a note while upgrading the rating for the Mumbai-based private lender’s bonds, debentures and tier-II capital instruments from “A” to “A+”

While the bank maintains one of the highest provision coverage ratios on its stressed assets, the timing of recoveries from these could remain uncertain, it said.

The rating upgrade

The rating upgrade factors in the sustained improvement in the credit profile of IDBI Bank Limited with expectations that the internal capital generation is likely to be sufficient for growth as well as for maintaining sufficient cushion over the regulatory capital requirements.

Due to the weak asset quality and capitalisation levels in the past, IDBI Bank was placed under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework, thereby placing curbs on fresh wholesale lending. This, coupled with increased provision levels on NPAs, resulted in a sustained decline in the net advances to Rs. 1.23 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021 from the peak level of Rs. 2.19 lakh crore as on September 30, 2016. In contrast, the bank’s deposit base moderated less sharply to Rs. 2.23 lakh crore as on June 30, 2021, from Rs. 2.66 lakh crore as on September 30, 2016, that too driven by bulk deposits.

NPA generation

The bank has guided towards the normalisation of NPA generation at 2.0-2.5% in FY2022. However, this will remain contingent on its ability to contain incremental slippages, even as the overdue book, as indicated by the special mention account (SMA)-1 and SMA-2 book (corporate book and retail book combined), remained high at 3.6% of standard advances as on June 30, 2021 (3.3% as on March 31, 2021 and 3.4% as on March 31, 2020).

On a forward-looking basis, normalised operating profitability is expected to remain better compared to past levels although elevated operational costs on a reduced scale along with the continued impact of the high share of low/non-yielding assets on profitability will continue to weigh down the operating profitability, the rating agency said.



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HDFC plans to raise Rs 6,000 crore via bonds, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The country’s largest mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) will raise up to Rs 6,000 crore by issuing bonds on a private placement basis to augment its long term resources. The bonds in the nature of secured redeemable non-convertible debentures (NCDs) have a base issue size of Rs 3,000 crore with the option to retain oversubscription up to Rs 3,000 crore, HDFC said in a regulatory filing on Monday.

“The object of the issue is to augment the long-term resources of the Corporation. The proceeds of the present issue would be utilised for financing/refinancing the housing finance business requirements of the Corporation,” it said.

The three-year tenor bonds rated ‘AAA‘ by Crisil and Icra will be up for redemption on September 30, 2024.

The bids for subscription will open on September 29, 2021, and close on the same day.

HDFC said the coupon rate on the bonds would be payable at a fixed spread of 80 basis points (0.80 per cent) over the benchmark that will be reset on a quarterly basis.

The benchmark will be a three-month T-bill (treasury bill) as published by FBIL and sourced from Bloomberg, it added. If Bloomberg data is not available, the simple average of FBIL 3-months T-bills closing rate, as published by Financial Benchmarks India Pvt Ltd (FBIL) may be recognised with certain parameters.

The first such quarterly setting of the coupon rate for September 30, 2021, would be 4.13 per cent per annum, HDFC said. Shares of HDFC closed flat at Rs 2841.10 apiece on BSE. PTI KPM BAL BAL



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