‘Have a long-term view, nothing happens overnight’: Hiren Ved of Alchemy

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Born in a family with a very strong ‘equity culture’, it was but natural that Hiren Ved, CEO, Director, and CIO, Alchemy Capital Management would gravitate towards the stock market. Hiren started his equity market career in 1991. He joined Alchemy to spearhead its asset management business in 2000 as the 4th partner along with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Lashit Sanghvi and Ashwin Kedia. Today, he manages/advises funds worth nearly a billion dollars across domestic and offshore mandates. BL Portfolio caught up to understand his personal finance philosophies, investing journey highlights and crucial lessons over three decades.

What does money mean to you?

Money is just a means, not the end goal. You need a basic amount of money to take care of your needs and comforts and a little bit for luxury. Money is obviously one of the parameters that people use to determine how successful a person has been. Though, in my opinion it’s not the most important parameter for success. Fortunately, in my profession, money is the by product of doing what I do with passion, and it gives me happiness.

When did you start investing?

My dad has been investing now for decades together. When I was still in school, he would take me to these AGMs and make me listen to Rahul Bajaj, Dhirubhai Ambani or HT Parekh. In college, I actually carried forward that interest. We teamed up with accounting professors and ran a stock market game. We were given paper money basically. We all used to report our trades to our professor and he would keep a log of it. While I was in college, during the vacations, I worked with a market research firm called IMRB. That was the first time I earned my own money and then I started to invest that money in the market during college time.

Do you remember your first investments?

Yes. I bought a share of Ponds, which then became part of Hindustan Unilever. I had invested in ITC. I don’t remember but I also invested in one or two very small companies, which finally went bankrupt, or didn’t go anywhere. So, that’s how I learned slowly and steadily. Whatever savings that I could gather, I used to always invest. Because our family had a long history of investing, for us the only avenue to put all your savings was in the stock market. I understood the power of compounding money very early.

There is a custom in our family now that whenever a new baby is born, the standard operating procedure is that you deposit the money to be gifted to the child in some stocks. Even if they can afford to buy one share or two shares, they would buy them. My dad and my uncle started this practice where they would gift some shares to a newborn, instead of giving cash.

Tell us about your portfolio allocation.

I keep a very small amount of money in money bank for any exigencies. But otherwise, I have no fixed deposits. I have no other fixed income.

Don’t you feel afraid that all of your savings is in the stock market?

Yes, many ask me this. ‘It’s all paper money, one fine day it can go down to half. Like it happened in 2008?’ I say no. I was thrown into the proverbial water at a very small age. So, I learned how to swim and not to be afraid of the water. The very concept that one needs to understand is that prices can fluctuate, but value in a good company keeps increasing. Compounding, like any other skill, has to be learned and I grasped it much earlier in life.

How did Alchemy happen for you?

When I started, I wanted to understand how investing works, how to do research, how to pick companies etc. In those good old times, there were very few brokers who were actually doing fundamental research. Kisan Ratilal Choksey was one such firm. I worked there for four and a half years. Then, I got an opportunity to work with Prime Securities, it was a very different setting. After 8-9 years, I thought now I know quite a bit of how this is done. It’s now time to become an entrepreneur, and do it yourself. And, we got talking, and at that time, Lashit Sanghvi, Ashwin Kedia, who are also other co-founders. They were very good friends. And also, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

Start-ups are a big thing today but in those days weren’t you apprehensive?

At that time, again, there were not too many PMS houses, so there was not too many professional people who were managing money for other people. We always thought that there would be a need to do something. And it was also a passion for us to find stocks and invest. So we said, why not invest for other people who don’t know how to do it? Or for those who need professional help? It was a bold move at that time. There was no concept of start-ups at that time. But yes, it was a startup in many senses. We literally started in a small office with with just one back-office person and and myself. Obviously, we’ve grown significantly since day one when we had five crores and seven clients

What are the financial goals that drive you today as an individual?

Well, I don’t have a any particular number in mind. I think I have enough to live a decent life. But beyond the point, the goal is more about the fun in the process. I want to make as much money as I can in my lifetime. And the beauty of the investing business is that there is no age bar. And as long as you are sane in the head, conviction in your gut, you can just keep adding.

I just want to keep growing my investments and obviously, I will use a little bit of it for me and my family. I also give back to society. Some of the money will go to my son as inheritance. I will only give him that much that he doesn’t become too lazy. So, that he uses it more as a backup and, and takes risks, like I did at some point in time in my life, and build something on his own.

You are fully invested into equities, but many are afraid to get into stocks now due to valuation concerns. Is that fear justified?

Many investors have this feeling that the markets are too high and they are trying to correlate what is happening on the ground because of Covid. They think markets are in their own world. But, the reality is something different.

There is this constant fear, because there is something which is called as the recency bias. Because you saw the Nifty at 7500 and in a year’s time plus you’re seeing it at 16,000 it’s not something that people can digest very easily. These valuations are not very excessive, if you look at where we are in the long-term profit cycle.

These days all the conventional valuation metrics seem to be out of sync when it comes to IPO valuations. How do you view new-age IPOs?

It’s good that the IPO market is doing well. A thriving IPO market always gets new investors to the market who then stay back as they then graduate from being pure IPO investors to secondary market investors. So, it increases the pool of participants. Start-ups and high growth businesses such as Zomato need to be valued differently as their current profitability may not be optimal because they are sacrificing near term profits for achieving rapid scale in a very short period of time. Having said that the end goal after a few years for these companies will also be the same as any healthy enterprise. They will have to improve their unit economics and generate sustainable cashflows and generate a decent return on capital invested. So, valuing these businesses require more ingenuity, vision and insight into how these businesses will unfold.

How can investors keep a level head be it bull markets or bear markets?

One, have a long term view. Nothing happens overnight.

Two, understand well what you own. If you understand what you own you will have the conviction to hold it.

Three, do what makes you comfortable. Don’t try to emulate others, no matter how great or successful the investor. You need to come to terms with your own personality and obviously work on building an aptitude for investing.

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Bajaj Finance | ICICI Bank: Hiren Ved is betting on Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank. Here’s why, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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We continue to be extremely bullish on the opening up trade. Whether it is hospitality, retail, consumer banks or real estate, there are a slew of sectors that can be played, says Hiren Ved, Co-Founder, CEO, Director, and CIO of Alchemy Capital Management.

You have been tracking very closely the ethanol opportunity. What kind of opportunity do you see for sugar companies, for players like Praj? Or is the best behind us given how steep the move has been in some of these stocks?
It is just beginning, it is not behind us. We are still seeing the early stages of adoption of ethanol in this country. We have accelerated the pace, very clearly the government is clear that they want to accelerate this space. The prime minister also mentioned about the focus that he wants to give hydrogen as a clean fuel.

In India, sugar companies are likely to turn into energy companies. Sugar is more likely to become a by-product and ethanol is likely to become a big product. But there are several layers of opportunity. What we are currently seeing is just a momentum in 1G ethanol which is the traditional sugar based ethanol. Where we see opportunities going ahead is when ethanol starts getting made out of food grains. As you know, we have a huge stock of foodgrains lying in our godowns and that is the next big opportunity that we see in terms of converting this extra food grain into ethanol and then biomass into ethanol.

Then there is a large opportunity for CBG. It is a medium term opportunity and still a little bit away but we are already starting to see the early signs of that and then there is hydrogen. The entire move to cleaner fuels, bio-fuels is a reality. The kind of climate change issues that we have seen around the world — the temperatures in Canada, the floods all around the world including Europe. The world is waking up to the fact that they need to move to greener fuels. The best is not behind us; it is just starting in my view.

How would you approach a stock like Bajaj Finance? It is at an all time high. The stock in a sense has been a great wealth creator for shareholders in the last 20 years. Do you think in the next three years, Bajaj Finance can give double digit returns and outperform the Nifty?
I think that the opportunity is significantly big and they have shown that they have been able to execute on that opportunity very well over the last few years. Financial services is undergoing a very silent revolution. It is one sector which is likely to be impacted by technology the most and if you look at the kind of soft infrastructure or digital infrastructure that India has laid out in terms of the UPI, payment companies etc. there is likely to be competition from all sides in financial services.

Apart from looking at a bank or an NBFC in a very traditional sense, like we used to evaluate them in the past when you look at if they are very strong on the liability side, asset side, credit underwriting standards, the most relevant is going to be all these trends plus digital capabilities. Amongst all the financial services companies that are listed today, in my opinion Bajaj Finance is way ahead of everybody. We saw what happened to the HDFC Bank stock price when they encountered digital issues and there was a moratorium by the RBI on issuing new credit cards. The stock underperformed for a long period of time. Now at least that part of the problem is over but going forward, we want to be invested in financial services companies which are ahead of the curve when it comes to digital adoption. Two companies make the cut — one is Bajaj Finance and the other is ICICI Bank, The rest follow.

How would you play the recovery and business normalcy? Would it be via the consumption facing names in retail, the entertainment and multiplexes stocks or through the construction industrial materials and metals and even real estate?
We firmly believe that there is significant upside in the so called opening up trade or consumer discretionary stocks and there are several ways to play that. One can play it through banks because in general, banks have been underperforming through the Covid period. So one of the opening up trade is banks. You mentioned real estate. We do not have a very significant exposure there but we are very closely looking at the opportunity in real estate. We believe that it is not just an opening up trade. After a long consolidation in that sector, we are seeing a significant uptick and that is the other way to play.

Thirdly, where we have exposure in a lot of big grocery retailers like Avenue Supermart, Trent, V-Mart. We are also very bullish on the QSR opportunity. We believe that all these opening up opportunities are significant. Many of these businesses have gotten more agile on the cost side; they have become more digital and their economics will only improve as things open up.

While incomes in the lower middle class and the rural areas have been hit, there has also been savings and as things open up, there will be a lot of pent up demand and spending is likely to come back with vengeance once we are through with the large part of the vaccination. So whether it is hospitality, retail, consumer banks or real estate, there are a slew of sectors that can be played. We continue to be extremely bullish on the opening up trade.

There is one more sector and one more stock which is in trouble and that is nothing to do with demand, it has got to do with availability. The semiconductor shortage has affected Tata Motors and now Maruti. Should one be a buyer in Tata Motors or Maruti?
Thus is a genuine constraint. Unfortunately it has come at a time when demand is so robust. Had there not been this issue, the sector would have been off the rockers but having said that, this may persist for maybe a quarter or two. Even OEMs are looking at alternative strategies.

We have to watch the situation. If the semiconductor issue gets resolved in a matter of few months, then there is a huge pent up demand in automotives and we believe that Tata Motors has done some phenomenal restructuring of the business both at the JLR end as well as on the domestic piece as well and today they are not only perceived but are actual leaders in the EV race in their passenger vehicle segment. A significant value creation can happen over the long run but investors will have to possibly live with some uncertainty in the short to medium term because of the semiconductor issue. But in the long run, we see a significant potential for rerating.



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