‘Focus on growth will continue’

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The six-member monetary policy committee decided to maintain status quo on the policy repo rate to support growth, which has been laid low by the second Covid-19 wave , and to tackle inflationary pressures arising from rising global commodity prices, especially crude oil, and logistics costs.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and Deputy Governors MK Jain, MD Patra, M Rajeshwar Rao, and T Rabi Sankar fielded questions from the media. Excerpts:

Why is RBI focussed only on supporting the 10-year benchmark Government Securities (G-Secs) in its market interventions?

Das: We focus on the entire yield curve, across maturities, and not just the 10-year G-Secs. Somehow there is a perception about the RBI being focussed only on 10-year G-Sec. For example, in the last G-SAP (G-Sec Acquisition Programme) auction, we had G-Secs across the maturity profile for purchase. The bond yields look inverted because there is abundant liquidity. So, naturally, the short-end (G-Secs) rates fall more than 10-year or 14-year rates. Therefore, the curve looks steep. But it is not so. If you look at the 10-year or the 14-year segments, the rates haven’t really gone up.

Whether 6 per cent yield on the 10-year G-Secs is sacrosanct, there is nothing like that. We have talked about an orderly evolution of the yield curve and we are focussed on that.

How will lower inflation print for April give you more elbow room?

Das: The inflation print for April at 4.3 per cent gives us elbow room. And elbow room means, it gives us space with regard to liquidity operations, enables us to step up liquidity infusion into the system.

With inflation being revised up, does it mean that policy normalisation will start?

Das: With regard to normalising the policy stance, there is no thinking at the moment. Our earlier CPI inflation projection was 5 per cent and now we have revised it to 5.1 per cent. This is not a significant upward revision.

What is your assessment of the impact of the second wave?

Das: Rural and urban demand was dented in the first wave. But the expectation is that the second wave has moderated (in terms of number of fresh cases)….Our assessment is that the impact of the second wave will be confined within the first quarter.…Our expectation is that from the second quarter, the overall demand position also will improve.

How long can you look through incipient inflationary pressures?

Patra: In several MPC statements, the analysis of inflation has been done. And the view of the MPC is that at this time the inflation is not persistent. It will turn persistent when it is backed by demand pull. At the current stage, we find the demand very weak and there is no demand pull in the inflation formation. It is mostly on the supply side and therefore we have chosen to look through. But we are very, very vigilant about demand pressures and we will keep on monitoring as and when demand pressures start feeding into the inflationary process.

How concerned are you about the pass through of WPI inflation into CPI?

Das: We are monitoring the the revival of growth — how growth is taking roots. We are monitoring the inflation dynamics…So, the MPC has consciously decided to focus on growth and give forward guidance in terms of the accommodative stance, spelling out what is meant by accommodative. So, the focus on growth will continue. The inflation, according to the MPC’s assessment, during the current year, is 5.1 per cent, which is well within the 2-6 per cent band.

Corporate loan book has not picked up and private capex revival has not started. What is your assessment and, based on the announcements today, is there no need for a stimulus package?

Das: We have not told banks to push credit. We discussed the credit flow in the earlier meeting…We have requested banks to implement the resolution framework. The RBI never tells banks to push credit. Credit flow depends on market demand and borrower profile and borrowing proposal. The dent on the economy is in the first quarter. From the second quarter, overall economic activity will pick up.

NPAs of banks will remain within the stress test of Financial Stability Report ?

Das: On NPAs, the projection (FSR said GNPA ratio may rise from 7.5 per cent in September 2020 to 13.5 per cent by September 2021 under the baseline scenario; the ratio may escalate to 14.8 per cent under the severe stress scenario) we gave in the last FSR will be within that. The figures are manageable. We will spell out the details in the FSR.

Do you see a risk to the general government’s debt sustainability over the medium term?

Patra: Public debt will be about 90 per cent of GDP at the end of March 2022. Our assessment is based on the Domar condition of (public debt) sustainability, which requires that the growth rate of the economy should be higher than the interest rate at which the government services the debt, that condition is fulfilled as of now. The level of debt-to-GDP is set to decline over the next six years. So public debt is sustainable.

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Shriram Life Insurance eyes 15-20% growth

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Private sector Shriram Life Insurance, which has been focussing on rural markets, is hoping to grow by 15-20 per cent on an annual basis.

“The expectation is that the life insurance industry will grow by about 15 per cent or so for the next number of years. So we hope to grow slightly faster than that — maybe between 15 per cent and 20 per cent per year,” said Casparus Kromhout, Managing Director and CEO, Shriram Life Insurance.

While the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has raised further uncertainties on the economic outlook, Kromhout said the life insurer has been putting a lot of things in place for supporting its existing channels. It has also been working on innovation and creating new business models.

Net profit

The life insurer registered a threefold increase in its net profit to ₹106 crore in 2020-21.

“The first quarter of last fiscal was very difficult for everyone. But we ended the year with new business premium growth of 25 per cent,” he told BusinessLine in an interaction, pointing out that a large part of the company’s customer base is from rural areas and was impacted by the pandemic.

“When the first lockdown came last year, we were very worried because our customer base was impacted by both the medical emergency and loss of income. We thought that the business would really suffer and customers wouldn’t be able to pay their premiums or buy insurance. Fortunately, we were able to come back in the second half of the year,” he said.

In 2020-21, about 47 per cent of its new business and 54 per cent of claims came from the rural segment.

Its average premium size is about ₹17,400 while the average industry premium size is around ₹50,000.

The rural areas have been quite severely impacted in the second wave of the pandemic, he said adding there has been an uptick in Covid related claims in April and May this year. He, however, said the company is well prepared to meet the rising claims.

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ICRA: Uncertainties with rising Covid cases could compound NBFCs woes

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The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to impact the performance of assets under management of retail NBFCs in 2021-22, rating agency ICRA said on Wednesday.

“Domestic Retail-NBFC AUM are facing asset quality headwinds which will moderate growth in 2020-21 and is also likely to affect their performance in 2021-22, following resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic,” it said in a statement.

Higher loan losses seen

Asset quality pressures would play out fully in this fiscal as the level of economic activities are yet to substantially pick up over the pre-Covid levels, with risks further compounded by recent rise in infection rate, it further said.

While NBFCs can proceed with the overdue recoveries post lifting of the Supreme Court order on the NPA classification in March 2021, ICRA notes that performance of most of the key target asset and borrower segments continues to be sub-optimal, which would impact realisations leading to higher loan losses.

“Entities have augmented their provisions steadily since the fourth quarter of 2019-20 and are currently carrying provisions of more than 50 per cent of the pre-Covid levels, the same is expected to be maintained at least for a few more quarters in view of the current uncertainties,” it said.

AM Karthik, Vice President, Sector-Head Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, said, “Restructuring expectation averages around 2.6 per cent (ICRA sample of large NBFCs) presently and we expect reported Gross Stage 3 to increase steadily by about 50-100 basis points (over December 2020 levels) by March 2022, as a base case; and could inch-up further if the impact of the pandemic continues for longer period leading to lockdowns or other tighter restrictions.”

Revival in growth

ICRA expects the Retail-NBFC AUM, which is estimated to be about ₹10-lakh crore as of December 2020, to have grown by three to five per cent in 2020-21 as pent-up demand, post the lockdown, led to some revival in segments such as namely gold, microfinance, two-wheelers, and tractors.

In 2021-22, growth is expected to revive to about eight per cent to 10 per cent driven by improvement in demand from all key target segments compared to last fiscal.

Growth, however, would be contingent upon access to adequate funding lines, it further said, adding that the capital structure is expected to remain adequate.

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Indian Bank-Allahabad Bank amalgamation most challenging, yet most satisfying: Indian Bank MD and CEO

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Chennai-headquartered Indian Bank has been reporting better performance than its peers amid the pandemic situation. Growth is steady and its asset quality improving. The amalgamation of Indian Bank and Allahabad Bank has progressed well. The bank on Thursday announced its ‘vision and mission statement’ with primary focus on customer service and customer satisfaction. Padmaja Chunduru, Managing Director and CEO of Indian Bank, spoke to BusinessLine on the merger journey, MSME challenges, and bank’s preparedness for the next growth curve. Excerpts:

How smooth was the amalgamation process of Allahabad Bank with Indian Bank?

The amalgamation exercise ‘Project Sangam’ had a three-pronged approach on product/process, employee-customer communication and IT integration. HR integration was an area of concern, but steps were taken even before amalgamation to encourage more engagement and interaction between the staff of both banks through common training programmes, common portal to give suggestions/air grievances. In handling employee issues such as transfer and promotions, we have ensured fairness and transparency in the whole exercise.

The hallmark of this amalgamation is transparency. All stakeholders, including customers, were informed regularly, despite the challenges posed by Covid-19. This has played a big role. While there was participation from all levels in the amalgamation process, the attitude of the staff from both banks in welcoming the amalgamation and adjusting to the new system, was impressive.

Even in an environment of uncertainty, fear and anxiety, the process was quite smooth, thanks to the support from employees of both banks.

Are you in a position to say amalgamation is complete in all respects?

In the last leg of amalgamation, the bank successfully completed the integration of CBS of both banks on February 14, with minimal downtime to customer banking operations. All 3,000-plus branches of the erstwhile Allahabad Bank are seamlessly integrated on Indian Bank’s CBS platform in one go as a ‘big bang’ approach.

Rationalisation of 200 branches has been completed against our target of 100 branches in the first year of operations. The bank is realising savings in administrative costs such as rent, while significant savings are also coming from other areas.

Initially, it was thought that our merger would be one of the toughest as different geographic areas were served and both banks were of almost equal size. However, the last 15 months have been a very valuable and interesting experience to all of us, proving how meticulous planning and attention to detail in execution can win the day.

The amalgamation is the most challenging phase in my career, but it is also the most satisfying one. If I look back, Further, we have invested a lot in IT and digital during this phase, and benefits of the same will start flowing in to make us much more competitive in the banking sector.

Which are some of the sectors that are still under stress?

Hospitality, travel, tourism, educational institutions are yet to pick up. In Indian Bank, given the diversification of exposure, we do not have large exposures to these sectors. Sector-wise analysis shows more stress in MSME.

Being a big lender to the MSME segment, how do you view the stress and recovery levels in MSMEs?

Our MSME book size is about ₹70,000 crore and we have sanctioned about ₹5,106 crore to the MSME sector under GECLS, covering about 2 lakh borrowers. Of this, more than 90 per cent has been disbursed. There is still a need to offer much more support to MSME sector as it is one of the crucial sectors in the growth of our economy. While the services segment in MSME category has seen some recovery, manufacturing MSMEs are still facing cash flow challenges as some money is stuck with public sector corporations and large corporates in the form of receivables.

Some of the additional measures that can support MSMEs include routing of payments to MSMEs by corporates / PSUs / government through TReDS platform; facility of reassessing the finance to MSMEs by taking into account revised working capital cycle, and relaxing the margin requirements to be extended till March 31, 2022 (it was permitted up to August 31, 2020, with a condition to restoring to normal margin by March 31, 2021) and extending restructuring facility for further period of at least six months.

In terms of restructuring what is the likely number as a percentage of overall book for FY21, and could you provide a mix on the sectors?

Overall, there was no big demand for restructuring in the retail segment. The reasons that can be attributed to it being the impact on their credit history and also that the disruption due to pandemic was manageable for most of the salaried class, which is 65 per cent of our retail borrowers. Sector-wise, corporate segment responded to the restructuring, with 1.13 per cent of the total standard advance getting invoked. The overall book under restructuring is 1.48 per cent to the total Standard Advance as on February 2021.

Indian Bank undertook rejig of business model for RAM category. Could you explain the objectives and outcomes?

The bank has introduced retail, agriculture and MSME processing centres, pan India, where all loan proposals sourced from the branches are processed. The main objective of this model is to improve the quality and reduce the turnaround time (TAT) in sanctioning of loans. This will enable us to utilise the manpower at branches for extending wholesome service to customers and to bring in new customers to our fold. We initiated this in August 2020 and the results have been rewarding. For example, in home loans, TAT has come down to 1 week-10 days from 1 month earlier.

What are your focus areas for loan growth in FY22?

We are better prepared to give good results, possibly with a low double-digit growth in FY22, despite the prevailing environment. With government accelerating vaccination, we hope things should get back to normal soon. We propose to concentrate on industries with low/moderate risk. We are entering into working capital consortium pact in many corporate accounts to further strengthen the relationship. Housing and vehicle loans will continue to be our core area of operations in the retail segment. Also, we will target loans to salaried, pensioners and other mortgage loans while making corporate salary package and educational loans more attractive. Digital banking will receive a thrust in the coming year.

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Gold loans: A place to be in, for banks

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Gold loans stood out in banks’ loan portfolio in the first nine months of the current financial year, both in terms of growth and asset quality.

Banks aggressively expanded their loan against pledge of gold ornaments and jewellery (jewel loans) portfolio in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gold loans shine as small businesses, borrowers look for ready cash

During the first nine months of FY2021, banks preferred to lend either against highly liquid collateral such as gold or Government guarantee as they feared the economic downturn would affect customers’ ability to repay loans.

State Bank of India’s (SBI) personal gold loan book jumped four times in six months (up to December-end 2020) to stand at ₹17,492 crore.

Mobile app for gold loan launched in Kochi

Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of India’s largest bank was only at 0.04 per cent of its gold loan portfolio, per the bank’s analyst presentation. The bank, however, did not disclose the size of its agriculture gold loan in the presentation.

Bank of Baroda’s (BoB) agriculture gold loan portfolio was up 29 per cent year-on-year (yoy) to ₹21,116 crore as at December-end 2020 (₹16,325 crore as at December-end 2019).

“When we look at the agriculture side, nearly 40 per cent of the growth that we see in agriculture has come from gold loans. Gold loans are 20-21 per cent of our total agriculture book.

“…And we do hope that going ahead, 40-50 per cent of agricultural growth will come from gold loans,” Sanjiv Chadha, MD & CEO, BoB, told analysts last month.

Risk-averse market

The gold loan portfolio of Thrissur (Kerala) headquartered CSB Bank jumped about 60 per cent yoy to ₹5,644 crore as at December-end 2020 (₹3,523 crore).

Gold loans accounted for 40 per cent of the private sector bank’s total advances against 30 per cent in the year-ago quarter.

“We will not slow down the gold loan growth. We will increase the growth of the other products so that as a proportion (of total advances), gold loan will go down. I think, this (gold loan portfolio) is only about ₹6,000 crore. There is a big public sector bank, which has ₹70,000 crore of gold loans, so gold loan is a place to be in today,” C VR Rajendran, MD & CEO, CSB Bank, told analysts last month.

Federal Bank’s gold loan portfolio registered a y-o-y growth of 67 per cent and crossed ₹14,000 crore in the third quarter of FY2021, per its third quarter analyst presentation.

The proportion of gold loans in total advances in the case of Karur Vysya Bank (KVB) increased to 23 per cent as at December-end 2020 as against 17 per cent as at December-end 2019.

As at December-end 2020, KVB’s gold loan portfolio stood at ₹12,069 crore (₹8,580 crore)

Karthik Srinivasan, Group Head — Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, observed that gold prices have been going up and this has been providing comfort to both lenders and borrowers.

“The market is still risk-averse. And banks, especially public sector banks, have been offering gold loans at relatively finer rates. So, that is an option that many people are availing,” he said.

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