SBI Ecowrap: Private investment revival seems around the horizon

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New investment announcements in the current year look encouraging as around ₹8.6-lakh crore have been declared so far in the last seven months of FY22 (around ₹11 trillion reported last year).

With the private sector contributing around 67 per cent of this i.e., ₹5.80-lakh crore, it seems the private investment revival is on the horizon, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India (SBI), in the latest edition of SBI Ecowrap.

India’s GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in Q2 FY22 on the back of the double-digit growth in ‘mining & quarrying and public administration, defence and other services’. The real GVA increased by 8.5 per cent, a tad higher than the GDP growth.

Nominal GDP growth jumped by 17.5 per cent, driven in part by a GDP deflator at 8.4 per cent. For Q2, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth is 6.6 per cent q-o-q compared to 10.36 per cent q-o-q non-adjusted real GDP growth. Core GVA, a proxy of private sector growth, expanded by 7.5 per cent – the highest since Q1 FY19.

“In H1 FY21, the country exhibited real GDP loss of ₹11.4-lakh crore (on y-o-y basis) due to the complete lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in June-September. The situation has improved in FY22 and in H1 FY22, the real gain was around ₹8.2-lakh crore. This indicates that the real loss of ₹3.2-lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level,” Ghosh said.

Affected sectors

Sector-wise data indicates that ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting’ are still the most affected sectors and the real loss of ₹2.6-lakh crore is still needed to be recouped in this sector.

Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6 per cent of the pre-pandemic level (with the above-mentioned affected sectors still at 80 per cent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses.

In Q2 FY22, the FMCG sector reported a top-line y-o-y growth of 11 per cent while EBIDTA and PAT grew by 4 per cent each. However, the rural markets, which have shown good resilience thus far during the pandemic have slowed in the last couple of months as suggested by some of the industry majors.

However, the results of industry majors whose Q2 FY22 results have been declared (like Dabur) have still not shown a significant slowdown in the rural economy.

“The Q2 estimate of the GDP on the expenditure side largely retains the flavour of trends observed in Q1 FY22. Foremost in quarterly trends, the shares in real terms have decreased for private consumption, government consumption and exports, and have increased for imports and investments and valuables. The component which has also increased is the inventories which have surpassed the pre-Covid level of FY20,” SBI Ecowrap said.

Thus, accounting for the growth in production and concomitant accumulation of inventory, the demand side has not recovered even after the opening of the economy. The massive jump in valuables which implies savings to the tune of 2 per cent of the GDP has moved into precious metals given their inflation hedging property and postponement of marriage in FY21, it added.

“We now expect the GDP growth for FY22 to top 9.5 per cent of the RBI forecast. We believe that the real GDP growth would now be higher than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5 per cent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct,” Ghosh said.

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Non-food bank credit growth accelerates to 6.9% in October

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Non-food bank credit growth accelerated to 6.9 per cent in October 2021 as compared to 5.2 per cent in October 2020, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s data on sectoral deployment of bank credit.

Agri sector sees accelerated growth

Non-food bank credit growth was propelled by credit to agriculture and allied activities, industry and personal loans. A slowdown in credit growth to services continued.

RBI observed that credit to agriculture and allied activities continued to perform well, registering an accelerated growth of 10.2 per cent in October 2021 as compared to 7.2 per cent in October 2020.

Also see: Unwise to place a ban on private crypto assets: Report

Credit growth to industry picked up to 4.1 per cent in October 2021 from a contraction of 0.7 per cent in October 2020.

Credit to industries

Within industry, credit to medium industries registered a robust growth of 48.6 per cent in October 2021 as compared to 20.8 per cent last year. Credit to micro and small industries accelerated to 11.9 per cent in October 2021 from 0.7 per cent a year ago. Credit growth to large industries stood at 0.5 per cent in October 2021 as compared to a contraction of 1.8 per cent a year ago.

Credit growth of services decelerated to 2.9. per cent in October 2021 from 8.6 per cent a year ago.

Personal loans continued to grow at a robust rate of 11.7 per cent in October 2021 vis-a-vis 8.7 per cent in October 2020, primarily due to housing, vehicle loans and loans against gold jewellery.

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Retail advances will drive growth this fiscal: Axis Bank

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Retail lending, which has seen strong demand in recent months, is likely to continue driving growth this year for Axis Bank. The private-sector lender also expects unsecured lending to pick up pace in the second half of the fiscal.

“The contribution of retail has been inching up in the overall share of our book. My sense is that, given the kind of strong demand, we will see corporate demand return from the fourth quarter of the fiscal year; but retail will be pretty much the driver of growth this year,” said Sumit Bali, Group Executive and Head–Retail Lending, Axis Bank.

The bank reported a 10 per cent growth in advances on a year-on-year basis, as on September 30, 2021.

Banks see robust festival season credit growth

Bali noted that much of this was led by retail and agri lending.

Corporate advances increased by one per cent on an annual basis, as on September 30, 2021, compared to an 18 per cent growth in advances to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) and 16 per cent increase in retail lending. Retail advances accounted for 56 per cent of its net advances, as on September 30, 2021, with the share of secured retail loans at about 80 per cent.

“As part of our retail lending strategy, we were biased towards the secured side of the business for the first six months. From now on, the unsecured side would be growing faster. My sense is that, while secured will keep growing, the pace of growth for unsecured will be faster from here on,” Bali told BusinessLine.

October was a good month for the bank with record spends — almost 40-45 per cent higher than the level in March 2021.

Bank boards must diligently discharge oversight functions: RBI Governor

Segments like business instalment loans and personal loans are back to pre-Covid levels while credit card spending has also been increasing on a month-on-month basis.

“In small business banking — which is the secured side of business and [where] our exposure is upto ₹1 crore — utilisation, which had fallen to sub-50, got closer to 60 per cent. That is a good sign,” he said.

He also said stress in the retail book was moderating.

“Delinquencies are moderating. The spike was sharp in May and June, and the reduction is equally sharp. Month-on-month, we are seeing 25-40 basis points being shaved off from the delinquency level and the net GNPA [gross non-performing assets] flow is down to virtually nil,” he said.

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India IT services market grows by 7.3% in first half of 2021, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi, The Indian IT services market grew by 7.3 per cent in the first half of 2021, compared to the 5.7 per cent growth in the same period last year, as enterprises continued to invest in digital transformation initiatives, a new report showed on Wednesday.

Overall, the Indian IT and business services market was valued at $6.96 billion and recorded a 6.4 per cent year-over-year (YoY) growth in the January-June period, compared to 5.1 per cent in the first half of 2020, according to the International Data Corporation’s (IDC) worldwide semi-annual services tracker.

“Verticals like government and manufacturing, which delayed IT investments in 2020, hiked up their IT spend in H1 2021, and enterprises in the country continued to increasingly depend on IT service providers for solutions in areas like cloud, security, artificial intelligence, analytics, etc.,” said Harish Krishnakumar, senior market analyst, IT Services, IDC India.

The IT and business services market is projected to reach $19.93 billion by the end of 2025, growing at a CAGR of 8.2 per cent between 2020-2025, the report said.

“H1 2021 turned out to be the year that showcased enterprise resiliency strengthen at a remarkable pace. Most enterprises witnessed a bounce back with business reaching the pre-pandemic situation,” said Shweta Baidya, senior research manager, enterprise software and ICT services, IDC India.

While large enterprises continued to take long strides towards transformation initiatives, the mid-market segment adopted a cautious approach towards technology investments, with a focus on investments that provided quick returns in the form of customer acquisition, talent retention or financial returns, she added.



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CSB Bank Q2 net jumps 72% on income growth

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CSB Bank reported a 72 per cent year-on-year (yoy) jump in second quarter net profit at ₹119 crore due to healthy growth in net interest income and other income, and write-back in total provisions.

The Thrissur (Kerala)-headquartered bank had recorded a net profit of ₹69 crore in the year ago quarter.

Net interest income (the difference between interest earned and interest expended) was up 21 per cent yoy at ₹278 crore (₹229 crore in the year ago quarter).

Other income, including fees earned from providing services to customers, commission from non-fund based banking activities, earning from foreign exchange transactions, selling of third-party products, profit on sale of investments (net), etc., rose about 36 per cent yoy to ₹60 crore (₹44 crore).

The bank saw a write-back of ₹9.2 crore in total provisions, including towards non-perfoming assets (NPAs) in the reportng quarter. In the year ago quarter, it made provisions aggregating ₹26.90 crore in the year ago quarter.

As of September-end, total advances grew 12.57 per cent yoy to ₹15,097 crore.

Growth in advances

The growth was mainly on the back of increase in agriculture & microfinance industry loans, gold loans, corporate loans, two-wheeler loans, new MSME loans. However, retail loans, MSME general loans and assignment loans saw a decline.

Total deposits were up 9.09 per cent to ₹19,055 crore. The proportion of low-cost current account, savings account (CASA) deposits in total deposits improved to 32.60 per cent (29.39 per cent as at September-end 2020). During the reporting quarter, fresh slippages were lower at ₹205 crore (of which ₹170 crore is on account of gold loans) against ₹435 crore in the first quarter.

Non-performing asset (NPA) reduction, including via upgradation and recoveries, was higher at ₹305 crore (₹142 crore in the preceding quarter).

CVR Rajendran, Managing Director & CEO, said: “…in terms of profitability, Q2 is a much better quarter than Q1FY22…Lot of good work has gone in managing the portfolio stress both in gold and non- gold portfolios and SMA (special mention accounts)/NPA levels were kept under control.”

He observed that CSB Bank saw return of demand in Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME), SME and Whole Sale Banking segments during the last part of the quarter. Further, visible growth is also happening in Gold loan portfolio.

As the impact of Covid is not fully ascertained, the bank decided to continue with the accelerated provisioning policy for stressed and NPA accounts, Rajendran said.

BK Divakara, CFO, emphasised that this is the first time that the bank has posted over ₹100 crore profit in a quarter. Net interest margin improved to 5.22 per cent, from 4.48 per cent in the year ago quarter.

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‘Accounting background made me a better investor’

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After a long stint of 24 years at Reliance MF, Sunil Singhania, in 2018, joined the start-up bandwagon. Thus was born Abakkus, which offers various products for HNIs across its AIF and PMS platforms. Having dabbled in markets for close to three decades now, Singhania, a CA rankholder and a CFA charterholder, has a vantage point that very few market gurus offer today. In an interview with BL Portfolio, he shares his personal finance philosophies, investment approach and experience, for the benefit of readers.

What does money mean to you?

‘Money is not everything’ is a cliched statement and may be, to an extent, it is true. However, we are in a materialistic world and for our needs and comforts, we do need to have adequate money. It is also a reflection, to some extent, of the fact that you are professionally doing things right. While making it is a satisfaction, bigger satisfaction should also come from utilising it aptly.

Looking back, you completed CA when you were 20 years old and were a top rankholder then. But instead of taking up job offers, you practised CA. Did being a CA make you take investing more seriously?

Having got an All-India rank, I did receive a lot of job offers from prominent corporates. However, I wanted to pursue my passion of being away from routine auditing, accounts, etc, that large companies were offering. Having my own practice enabled me to learn about entrepreneurship early in my career and it also made my foundation on accounting principles, taxation and balance sheet reading very strong. These surely aroused my interest in equity investing and also helped me to be a better investor.

At the beginning of your investing experience, you were known to have made a big profit in IPO investment of Gujarat Godrej Innovative Chemicals. For the retail investor, how is the IPO market of 80-90s different from today?

Rules have changed a lot. In earlier days, there was CCI that used to determine the premium a company could charge at the time of IPOs. Thus, they were offered at a big discount to their intrinsic value. Also, size of the IPOs should be smaller. Now, it’s a free market and companies can determine themselves the price at which they want to raise funds during an IPO. There are many interesting companies that are tapping the markets via IPOs, but my view is that there is definitely exuberance in this segment of the markets and one surely has to be careful about many of these IPOs, not because of quality or fundamentals, but purely based on the price that they are being offered at.

Being a fund manager, do you follow the same guiding principles when you invest for yourself as well as for your clients?

Investing is the same and the principles an investor follows are the same. While managing money for others, one is in a role of trusteeship and therefore it is more difficult. One has to be careful about risks as well as perception and also has to take care of near-term performance while investing for longer term.

What are the goals that drive you today?

An important aspect of equity investing is “Being Positive”. Our investment decisions are based on the optimism that India will continue to grow rapidly and therefore, returns will be good. At the same time, one has to be realistic about return expectations. From our side, the thought is that we should, on a risk return basis, do better than the benchmark indices.

Also, India is a country that thrives and grows because of entrepreneurship. we have thousands of passionate promoters and businessmen and new segments and businesses coming up. These offer investment opportunities as also creating alpha. In-house and extensive research is our mantra and long-term wealth creation for all involved is our goal.

What does your personal portfolio look like? What are the lessons you have learnt from the way you have handled it?

Ever since I turned an entrepreneur with the setting up of Abakkus, a large part of my investments is in Abakkus and its funds. I have some direct equity, predominantly in very small market cap companies as well as some in private companies. I do have some exposure to debt. I have realised that I end up ignoring my personal investments as full attention is in excelling while managing client investments at Abakkus. The biggest lesson is to let investments grow in a country like India that is visibly growing the fastest in the world.

What has been your most successful investment till date? What are the contributing factors?

Very tough to pinpoint. I have had multiple successes and many that have lost money. Of late, we were early to see the digital trend and some of our bets on the listed side in this space has done very well and contributed to very good returns for our investors. I believe that some of the new trends like digital, efficiency, renewables, environment, etc have huge multi-year potential. However, its not easy to find many stocks that are exactly under priced here.

You have seen an era when getting balance sheets was tough to today when a lot of the financial information about companies is easily available. There is an overload of information as well. How do you sift the wheat from the chaff today?

Data is available easily in this digital world. This has led to more transparency and many more analysts are now seriously analysing companies more extensively. Time commitment has surely increased. From our side, a combination of a large analyst team, multiple company meetings, interaction with sell-side analysts and being passionate and charged up every single day, is what helps. I personally read a lot, including balance sheets and this history of past meetings and company behaviour in different cycles also helps.

What are the all-season investing lessons that investors should remember?

A bull market is followed by a bear market which is followed by a bull market — this is what Sir John Templeton said. If you are an investor in a growing country like India, decent returns and wealth will surely be made over a period of time.

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Sundaram Finance eyes ‘decent’ growth in FY22 amid limited stress

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Sundaram Finance Ltd, a leading NBFC in the country, said it continues to see accounts from a few segments seeking restructuring and delinquency rates move northwards amid improving business.

Though business is returning to pre-second wave levels, there are still accounts up for restructuring, especially in the education and school bus segment, which is a fairly big portfolio for the company. Tourist buses have been impacted, as have inter-State buses.

In the car segment, tourist taxis have been impacted. In pockets, market load operators on haulage have been affected, said Rajiv Lochan, Managing Director, Sundaram Finance, in an exclusive interaction with BusinessLine.

As of March 31, the company had restructured 4.2 per cent of its portfolio, and this financial year it has further restructured 2.6 per cent. That is higher than industry. Delinquency rates increased to 4.2 per cent by the end of June.

“We are still quite good compared to the industry,” he added.

Growth complications

The first round of restructuring last year was in the commercial vehicle (CV) and bus segments.

Many who expected recovery in Q4 did not opt for it. Some school bus operators, inter-State bus operators and tourist buses expected recovery this year, but the second wave hit them hard and they have come for restructuring now.

The other complication is that viability of operators has been impacted. Freight rate has not increased in the last six months, there has been excess capacity in the system, return trips have been empty, and diesel prices have gone up. There are also Covid-related temporary issues.

Rallying business

Nevertheless, business has been picking up and getting better every succeeding month. September is also trending well.

“Compared to FY20, we will still do decent, especially if the third wave does not hit us too badly. We have to go granular. In terms of growth, that’s the thrust. We are seeing steady progress,” Lochan said.

There are a few segments that promise a favourable growth outlook for the company in the coming years. The tipper and construction equipment (CE) segments have picked up on the back of infrastructure activities.

Also see: Sundaram Finance presents favourable near-term outlook amid caution

“I expect a secular positive growth in the next three years in CE, which constitutes over 10 per cent of our business. It has gained momentum in the last three years and I see it gaining even more traction going forward. The agri-related segment (tractors or farm equipment) that constitutes about 7-8 per cent is doing well. Going forward, we expect to see double digit growth in this segment,” said Lochan.

Within the CV segment, the company has diversified into the intermediate CV, used CV, light CV and small CV segments over the last decade, and these are witnessing growth driven by e-commerce.

“We are seeing a nice momentum in this space. There is real action for us in these three asset classes. In the passenger vehicle segment, which constitutes 25 per cent of the business, we will ride with the wave,” Lochan added.

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IDFC First Bank aims retail loan book growth of 25 per cent on long-term basis, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Private sector IDFC First Bank is aiming its retail loan book to grow by 25 per cent on a long-term basis and expects the mortgage lending to account for 40 per cent of its loan book going forward. Bank’s profits before provisioning are low currently because of the DFI (development financial institution) background with higher cost of legacy liabilities, and due to the set-up cost of a new bank, V Vaidyanathan, Managing Director and CEO, IDFC First Bank, said in bank’s Annual Report 2020-21.

“This is getting fixed at a quick pace because of our strong profitability on an incremental basis…the underlying quality of the bank we are building is not entirely visible at this stage to you,” he said in his message to the bank shareholders.

Contending that it was not right to compare IDFC First Bank with the already established 20-30 years old banks or with entities who were profitable when they converted to banks, he said “the power of incremental profitability is lost in the noise”.

IDFC First Bank reported a net profit of Rs 452 crore in 2020-21. There was a net loss of Rs 2,864 crore in FY20.

The erstwhile IDFC Bank had merged non-banking finance company Capital First with itself in December 2018, post which Vaidyanathan took over as the managing director and CEO of IDFC First Bank.

He said IDFC First Bank has strong incremental profitability of retail lending as well as corporate lending business.

In retail, the incremental borrowing cost is less than 5 per cent, the lending rate is over 14 per cent, thus the incremental spreads on retail is over 9 per cent.

“We have specialisation in these segments and our credit costs (provisioning) are expected to be about 2 per cent based on the combination of products we finance. Thus our incremental ROE (return on equity) in the retail lending business is estimated at 18-20 per cent,” Vaidyanathan added.

There is strong incremental profitability of corporate lending business with estimated incremental business ROE at 14-15 per cent. However, he said that this is not visible on the bank’s books because of the higher cost of Rs 1,000 crore from legacy liabilities and set up costs in retail business as it is a new bank.

It is carrying Rs 27,936 crore of fixed rated liabilities at 8.66 per cent, as it converted from a DFI to a bank.

“When our bank will replace this let’s say 5 per cent, we would save about Rs 1,000 crore per year on an annuity basis compared to today. This is a legacy issue on the liability side and will go away with time,” he noted.

On set up cost since merger, IDFC First Bank has invested in 390 branches, 565 ATMs, added over 12,000 employees, boosted technology and scaled up many new businesses like credit cards, wealth management, gold loans, prime home loans among others.

These investments are giving us a negative drag today but this will become profitable with scale, Vaidyanathan said.

“The negative drag because of high cost liabilities will go away as the bank will repay these liabilities on maturity. And the negative drag because of investments will go away with scale,” IDFC First Bank said.

Thus the highly profitable retail and wholesale businesses will shine the results. “Our lending business is immensely profitable. We expect to grow the retail book by nearly 25 per cent on a compounded basis for a long period of time.”

“This is already playing out over the last two-and-a-half years, as the NIM (net interest margin) has already expanded from 1.84 per cent pre-merger to 5.09 per cent in Q4 FY 21 and further to 5.51 per cent in Q1FY22. We expect profitability to increase as we expand the loan book,” Vaidyanathan added.

The lender is also expanding customer segments to cover prime home loans and has lowered interest rates.

“We can sustainably pursue prime home loans, the safest category of loans. We expect mortgage backed loans to form 40 per cent of our loan book in due course,” said the official.

He said the bank is also targeting a 2-1-2 formula to keep its gross non-performing assets (NPAs or bad loans) at 2 per cent, net NPAs at 1 per cent and provisions at 2 per cent on a steady basis. In FY21, its gross NPAs were over 4.15 per cent and net NPAs stood at 1.86 per cent.

Speaking about bank’s exposure to cash-strapped telecom player Vodafone Idea, the MD told the shareholders that he expects the government to support the industry, as out of the total dues of the telecom player, as high as Rs 1.5 lakh crore are owed to the government only.

“…hence they will be keen to solve this issue. In any case, we have a lot of growth capital by our side. We will peruse the matter through law of the land.”

He said a “one-off incident does not dent the long-term story”.

Bank’s exposure to Vodafone Idea stood at Rs 3,244 crore as of June 30, 2021. Among others, the bank said it plans to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore debt capital and will seek shareholders’ approval in the annual general meeting (AGM) next month.

After assessing its fund requirements, the board of directors of the bank in July 2021 have proposed to obtain consent of the members of the bank for borrowing funds from time to time, in Indian or foreign currency by issue of debt securities on private placement basis, up to an amount not exceeding Rs 5,000 crore, it said.

Bank’s 7th AGM is on September 15, 2021.

The bank will also seek their consent to re-appoint Vaidyanathan as the MD&CEO for a period of three years from December 19, 2021.

He was appointed to head the bank for a period of three years from December 19, 2018.

His term would conclude on December 18, 2021 and the board of the bank had approved his appointment for another three years in June 2021, subject to approval of shareholders and RBI.

“Accordingly, the bank has filed an application with the RBI for re-appointment of V Vaidyanathan as the MD & CEO of the Bank. The approval of RBI is awaited.”

The approval of the members is now sought for his reappointment for a period of three consecutive years commencing from December 19, 2021 up to December 18, 2024 (both days inclusive), it added.



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Net profit rises 94% YoY, misses estimate; NII rises 11%, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: Axis Bank today reported a 94 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit to Rs. 2,160 crore for the quarter ended June, which was above analysts’ estimate.

The lender reported a 11 per cent on-year growth in net interest income to Rs. 7,760 crore in the reported quarter, which was also below Street’s estimate.

The lender saw a marked deterioration in its asset quality in the quarter likely due to the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The gross non-performing assets ratio stood at 3.85 per cent in the June quarter as against 3.7 per cent in the previous quarter.

Similarly, the net NPA ratio rose to 1.2 per cent in the quarter from 1.05 per cent in the previous quarter. The lender’s gross slippages in the quarter jumped 23 per cent sequentially to Rs. 6,518 crore and was nearly three times from the year-ago quarter.

As on June 30, the bank’s provision coverage, as a proportion of gross NPAs stood at 70 per cent, as compared to 75 per cent in the year-ago quarter and 72 per cent in the previous quarter.



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AMC space will see innovation and growth: Satish Ramanathan from JM Financial Asset Management

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Asset Management Companies (AMCs) will continue to grow regardless of the blip in the economy as they offer a variety of products for savers and are economical with high governance standards. With interest rates at record low, investors will have to re-deploy savings in other products such as equities, international equities, multi-asset products and precious metals, among others.

Mutual funds will remain the first port of call for investors for diversifying their portfolios, according to Satish Ramanathan, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer–Equity at JM Financial Asset Management. Excerpts:

How did the second wave of Covid-19 impact Indian economy and financial markets?

We believe that the second wave would have had a higher impact in rural India and consumption recovery may not be as quick as last year. Manufacturing sector was less impacted in the first wave as compared to now. Also, many States have developed their own protocols, delaying the recovery process.

Textiles, auto-ancillary and some of the export-oriented industries have been affected, while the IT sector has been less impacted. IIP has declined sequentially by 13 per cent in April 2021. We expect sequential contraction to continue into May as well, and some stabilisation in June. Similarly, diesel sales—a barometer of economic activity— has also declined by 20 per cent sequentially in May 2021.

Given the unevenness in recovery, which are the sectors that you expect to jump back to normalcy?

In calendar year 2020, it was consumption that rebounded and this time we expect US-based export businesses to pick-up. The US and Europe are likely to enjoy the benefits of a recovery due to mass vaccination drives. Consequently, we expect industries such as IT to do well and manufacturing in segments such as home textiles among others to pick up. Agriculture is also doing well and will continue to do so on the back of a good monsoon expected this year.

Do you see a churn in the AMC space?

The AMC space will see innovation and growth. Individual participants may have their own reasons to enter or exit the space. The penetration of mutual funds is still limited and it will take time as a new set of investors (younger entrants into the workforce) start deploying their savings.

With bank deposit rates at levels below inflation, investors will accept more risk for additional return and we sense mutual funds with a professional management at the helm could fill in the gap. There may be shifts within the mutual fund space – exchange traded funds (ETFs) and offshore funds among others, but all in all, we remain optimistic about this category of savings.

We (JM Financial Asset Management) are exploring several innovative strategies for investors in both equity and debt formats. Some of the options include sectoral funds and global funds.

Which strategy would you suggest — ‘chasing a winning stock’ or ‘building a winning portfolio’?

Our stock-picking strategy is to look at the fundamentals of a business and determine the suitability of the company in our portfolio. The business should be sustainable, grow organically, generate adequate cash flows to repay debt, pay dividends, grow the business and also be fairly valued.

We do not really bind ourselves to whether the stock has performed earlier when it comes to our decision to buy or not. From our point of view, we focus on building a winning portfolio. Focussing on the basics really helps in filtering the noise so prevalent in the market.

We have noticed that there are several new businesses which have grown in the past decade. Some of them have had staggering profit growth –be they in water pipes or NBFCs. Our focus has always been to identify these businesses early and grow with them.

Will the ESG concept have an increasing role in the investment decisions of fund managers in times to come as is seen in the developed markets?

We believe that ESG will become intrinsic to our stock-selection process. We need to bear in mind that India does not have the luxury of the developed world when it comes to the environment aspect. We need hard commodities to build our infrastructure which may not be environment-friendly. So, do we stop building our infrastructure? This is a question that we need to answer along the way.

Fortunately, as investors, we have the choice to move to the services sector which is highly compliant as regards ESG. Over the medium term, ESG-compliant companies are more sustainable and also result in superior performance.

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