NPA position of Indian Banks indicates gradual improvement: CARE Ratings

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The non-performing assets (NPA) situation of the Indian banking system as represented by 23 banks — nine public sector banks (PSBs) and 14 private sector banks (PvBs) — that have declared results so far indicates a gradual improvement in the NPA ratio in September 2021, according to an assessment by CARE Ratings.

The Gross NPA (GNPA) ratio of the aforementioned banks has improved to 6.97 per cent as at September-end 2021 against 7.32 per cent as at June-end 2021 and 7.36 per cent as at September-end 2020, the credit rating agency said.

In absolute terms, the GNPA of the banks as at September-end 2021 was at ₹4,53,145 crore (₹4,40,124 crore as at September-end 2020) in a gross advance of ₹64,98,609 crore (₹59,82,606 crore).

Barring State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India, most of the other large banks have announced their second quarter financial results, CARE Ratings said.

Improving ratio

The Gross NPA (GNPA) ratio of PSBs has improved to 11.52 per cent as at September-end 2021 against 11.94 per cent as at June-end 2021 and 12.32 per cent as at September-end 2020, according to the agency.

The Gross NPA (GNPA) ratio of PvBs has improved to 3.94 per cent as at September-end 2021 against 4.16 per cent as at June-end 2021 and 3.82 per cent as at September-end 2020.

According to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest Financial Stability Report (July 2021), macro stress tests indicate that the GNPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may increase from 7.48 per cent in March 2021 to 9.80 per cent by March 2022 under the baseline scenario; and to 11.22 per cent under a severe stress scenario, although SCBs have sufficient capital, both at the aggregate and individual level, even under stress.

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How IndusInd Bank is ready for loan growth amid Covid onslaught, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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IndusInd Bank reported a stable fourth quarter with an in-line performance, making analysts bullish on it despite the Covid pandemic.

While the bank reported year-on-year net profit growth of 190% on low base effect, its deposits grew 7% quarter on quarter, while loan growth is seeing a revival.

Deposits

Its total deposits grew by 26.8% y-o-y and 7.1% q-o-q. The 10.5% q-o-q growth in current and savings account (Casa) has helped the bank to increase its Casa ratio to 42%, bringing down its costs of funds.

While IndusInd Bank reported muted loan growth of 2.8% y-o-y and 2.6% q-o-q during the fourth quarter, the management is now focused on the loan recovery and its collection efficiency has improved from 97% to 98% q-o-q.

Its high capital adequacy ratio (CAR), its Tier 1 CAR is placed now at 16.9%, could easily support the growth in several years. With a 2.6% q-o-q increase in loan book, loan growth has made a small come back in the fourth quarter and analysts believe that IndusInd will be able to deliver around 10% loan growth in 2021-22. IndusInd also plans to expand its geographic reach by opening around 250 branches each in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Asset quality

On the asset quality front, the Gross non-performing asset ratio improved sequentially and stood at 2.67%/0.69%, with the provision coverage ratio improving to 75% from 43% in March 2019. In addition to this, the bank holds a COVID-related provision buffer at 75 bp of loans. The restructured book stood at 2% of loans (slightly higher than the guided 1.8%), largely from the Vehicle portfolio.

IndusInd follows a conservative provisioning policy which has resulted in its provision coverage ratio (PCR) improving to 74% now from just 43% in March 20219. It has made 100% provisions for unsecured retail loans and MFI loans.

With large provisions to the tune of 3.3% of its total advances, it should be able to navigate the current turbulent times with this balance sheet cushion.

Business momentum

IndusInd reported a net profit of Rs 930 crore, in line with estimates, aided by an improvement in its core operating performance.

Net interest income grew 9% YoY to Rs 3,530 crore as the margins waere broadly stable at 4.13%. Fee income picked up sequentially and grew ~9%, while opex was broadly flat YoY.

Advances growth picked up sequentially to 2.6%, aided by improving demand. Among retail segments, the MFI/Tractor portfolio showed robust traction, while the credit card portfolio showed a declining trend. The wholesale portfolio grew 3% quarter on quarter while the retail to wholesale mix stood at 57:43.

Deposit traction remains strong at 7% QoQ to Rs 2.6 lakh crore.



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