BusinessLine Portfolio 2021: What’s coming up

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Another year is coming to a close for ‘Portfolio’, and we look back at our work with both a sense of accomplishment as well as humility. Needless to say, 2020 has been an unprecedented year in many ways. We put our best foot forward in guiding investors through these challenging times.

Lest covid ruin finances

The pandemic brought to light lacunae in planning our finances for a rainy day – be it having contingency funds to tide over pay cuts and job losses, ensuring adequate insurance cover, borrowing judiciously or investing so as to optimise returns, without taking on too much risk. A lot also happened in terms of EMI moratorium announcements, introduction of Covid-specific insurance covers, allowing withdrawals from EPF or in terms of the impact of various sops for industry, on listed stocks.

Issues such failure of private banks (YES Bank, Lakshmi Vilas Bank) and co-operative banks as also closing down of six debt schemes of Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund came as a shocker for investors.

At ‘Portfolio’, we ensured that we wrote on all these developments as they unfurled and continued to take twists and turns, striving to give readers a sense of direction at each blind spot.

Stocks and mutual funds

Stocks ideas have been the cornerstone of ‘Portfolio’ since the ‘Investment World’ days. Among our stock picks since July 2019, our buy calls in the defensive IT and pharma space, that investors flocked to, amid the uncertainty created by the pandemic have worked well. ‘Buy’ calls on Granules India (up 112 per cent), Dr Reddy’s Labs (up 82 per cent) , Alkem Labs up (65 per cent), Infosys (up 57 per cent) and HCL Technologies (up 67 per cent) are instances. The returns of these stocks have outperformed the Nifty 50 as well as Nifty 500 indices for the same time period since the ‘Buy’ call. Other market outperformers include Amber Enterprises (up 153 per cent) and India Energy Exchange (up 75 per cent).

IPO calls such as the one to invest in Route Mobile and CAMS or to avoid Spandhana Sphoorthy, CSB Bank and Chemcon Speciality Chemicals, have also worked well so far.

Where we could have done better is by probably sticking our neck out more (never easy!) in the early days of the market rally.

In hindsight, more calls on fundamentally sound stocks that had corrected sharply during the market fall in February – March 2020 might probably have helped identify some good bets. In future, we will also strive to give more ‘Sell’ or ‘Book Profit’ calls, wherever warranted. A call to sell Punjab National Bank in June 2020 has worked well, with the stock losing 15 per cent since.

In mutual funds, catering to the rising interest in international funds as well as passive investing, we covered these segments more discerningly in our fund calls section, in the ‘Your Money’ and ‘Big story’ pages as well as through the ‘Your Fund Portfolio’ (now ‘Fund Query’) column.

Given the many novel themes in NFOs this year, we also extensively gave our take on the strategies of new funds and suitability for investment.

Fixed income and gold

Our forecast for gold in the January 6, 2020, wherein we expected the yellow metal to touch ₹50,000 per 10 gm over the long-term, came true much earlier, thanks to gold’s safe haven status in the Covid-induced global slowdown. In 2020, we have actively covered gold, writing every week for traders in the derivatives segment, analysing sovereign gold bond issues in both the primary and secondary markets as well as recommending gold ETFs for investors. We wrote on digital gold and jewellers’ schemes too, presenting their pros and cons.

Even as interest rates were on a downward slope, we consciously identified investment ideas offering reasonably good fixed returns, for risk averse investors. We recommended investing in the RBI Floating rate savings bonds when it was launched in July this year. The product stands out even today in terms of offering attractive interest rates with maximum safety.

In March 2020, we urged readers to make haste and lock into higher rates offered by small post office savings schemes. As expected, rates were slashed in April. Our calls earlier this year to invest in the 1-2 year deposits of Sundaram Finance and Equitas Small Finance Bank, for instance, worked out well, with both entities slashing rates since our call. Their financials also remain relatively less impacted due to the pandemic, ensuring stability to investors.

New beginnings

This year, we furthered our multimedia presence by adding videos and podcasts to many of our stories. We also launched our exclusive ‘Portfolio Podcasts’ recently, wherein, as a first in the series, analysts in the Research Bureau busted tax jargons. Aired twice a week, 15 episodes of ‘Tax Jargon Busters’ over seven to eight weeks received an encouraging response.

On December 6, 2020, we relaunched ‘Portfolio’, overhauling the content, design and colour scheme. Most importantly, we shifted the edition to Sundays to give readers enough time to absorb the ideas and strategies laid out in our pages. Reader engagement through query corners on various aspects of finance, sections for first time investors, columns on ‘Do-it-yourself’ investing, a dedicated page on derivatives, and various useful market data tables are some of the key features of the relaunched edition.

Among the plans for the New Year is regular coverage of international markets/investing and wider offering in the ‘Fund Insight’ page to include NPS products. We also plan to take ‘Portfolio Podcasts’ ahead in 2021.

Keep reading and writing to us, on what you think of Portfolio and how we can help you manage your finances better. Happy New Year!

 

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How yield on deposits is calculated

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Angry bird Bulbul gets some ‘interesting’ gyaan from agony uncle Babaji who revels in rhyme and reason

Bulbul: Businessmen always get what they want. Cheaper loans they asked for – and now they have it, with interest rates at multi-year lows. But in the bargain, savers and depositors like me are getting squeezed – most banks and companies now offer just about 5-7 per cent on fixed deposits. Not fair!

Babaji: Fret not so much, Bul. What goes up comes down and what goes down comes up. So will interest rates. It’s all temporary.

Bulbul: Whatever, Baba. But for now, I am on a hunt – for the best yields to shore up my already modest interest income.

Babaji: Hunt if you must, but don’t fall for illusions. ‘Cos what you see may not be what you get – especially when it comes to yield in this fickle financial field.

Bulbul: Another rhyming riddle and your fate is sealed! See this baton that I wield?

Babaji: Calm down, Bul. Let me make the complex simple, and see your smiling dimple. You see, when it comes to interest and yields, the simple can compound your problems. It gives you an illusion of more, and you could end up feeling sore.

Bulbul: Now, do you really want a gash and a gore?

Babaji: Nope, here’s the crux to the fore. When it comes to advertised yields, what you see is often an exaggerated number meant to entice you, dear depositor. That’s because many companies that accept deposits do not follow the correct definition of yield.

Bulbul: Pray, explain what you say.

Babaji: Yield, as per finance terminology, should ideally be calculated using the formula for compound interest, that is, Amount = Principal*(1 + Rate)^Period. But several deposit-takers calculate yield applying the simple interest equation, that is, Simple interest = (Principal*Period*Rate)/100. Re-arranging the formulae, the Rate in both the equations gives you the annual yield. Turns out, the simple interest formula churns out a much higher yield than the compound interest formula.

Bulbul: Oh my! Tell me why.

Babaji: Sure, let me try. In a cumulative deposit, the interest earned is reinvested and, in turn, earns interest in the subsequent period. These periodic additions to the capital need to be considered while calculating yield. The compound interest formula does that, the simple interest one does not.

Bulbul: Yelp! An example will help.

Babaji: Say, a company offers annual interest rate of 6.7 per cent on its cumulative deposits for a tenure of 5 years; the interest is compounded annually and Rs 5,000 will grow to Rs 6,915 in 5 years. The company advertises that the yield is 7.66 per cent, using the simple interest formula – while actually, the yield is only 6.7 per cent using the compound interest formula. If you get enamoured by the higher advertised yield, you could end up making a wrong choice. Greed often comes with misery, you know.

Bulbul: Enlightened, thanks. But how do I calculate the correct yield without getting into knots with complex formulae?

Babaji: Simple. Invoke the ‘Rate’ function in Microsoft Excel. It can do the job in a jiffy. Before you take the bait, wait and calculate.

Bulbul: That’s Simply Put.

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Here are the latest FD Interest rates offered by top banks, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Fixed deposits (FDs) are financial instruments provided by banks or NBFCs that offer investors better interest rates than the regular savings accounts. FDs are considered one of the safest investment options and are also called term deposits as they are booked for a fixed term that may range from 7 days to up to 10 years.

Given below are the latest interest rates offered by top banks for tenures ranging from 7 days to 10 years as of December 2020.

State Bank Of India
On FDs between 7 days and 45 days, SBI gives 2.9% interest. Between 46 days and 179 days, the interest is 3.9%. FDs of 180 days to less than one year will get you an interest of 4.4%. For deposits with maturity between 1 year and up to 2 years fetch 4.9% interest. FDs with tenor 3 years to less than 5 years give 5.3%, while those maturing in 5 years and up to 10 years give 5.4 percent.

HDFC Bank
On FDs between 7 and 29 days, HDFC Bank gives 2.50% interest. For 30 to 90 days, it is 3.00%. For 91 days to 6 months, the interest rate will be 3.50%. For FDs of 6 months 1 days to 1 day less than a year, the interest is 4.40%. For 1 year it is 4.90%. For 1 year 1 day to 2 years, you can get an interest of 4.90%. For 2 years 1 day to 3 years, the rate is 5.15%. On FDs between 3 year 1 day and 5 years, you can enjoy an interest rate of 5.30%. And FDs maturing between 5 years 1 day and 10 years will fetch you 5.50%.

ICICI Bank
On FDs between 7 and 29 days, ICICI Bank gives 2.50% interest. From 30 to 90 days, it is 3.00%. From 91 days to 184 days, the interest rate will be 3.50%. For FDs of 185 to 290 days to less than 1 year, you can get interest of 4.40%. For 1 year to 389 days to 390 days upto 18 months, the rate is 4.90%. On FDs between 18 months upto 2 years, you can enjoy interest rate of 5%. From 2 years 1 day upto 3 years, the interest rate is 5.15%, whereas for 3 years 1 day upto 5 years it is 5.35%. For 5 years 1 day to 10 years, the interest rate is 5.50%.

Axis Bank
For Axis Bank, the FDs between 7 and 29 days is 2.50% and 30 days to 3 months is 3.0%. From 3 months upto 6 months, the interest rate will be 3.50%, and from 6 months upto 11 months and 25 days it will be 4.40%. For FDs from 11 months and 25 days upto 1 year 5 days it is 5.15%. On FDs between 1 year 5 days and upto 18 months the interest rate will be 5.10% whereas from 18 months upto 2 years it will be 5.25%.

Senior citizen FD rates
FD interest rates vary from bank to bank depending on their tenure, amount, and type of depositor. Senior citizens, who are above 60 years, get special interest rates on their fixed deposits, which are often 0.5% above the prevailing interest rates.

Timely closure
Timely closure refers to closing the fixed deposit account at the time of its maturity only. When closed upon maturity date, the bank pays back the principal amount with the interest accrued over the tenure chosen.

Premature withdrawal
Premature withdrawal or breaking of FD is usually discouraged by lenders, and in such a case they levy a penalty along with paying back the principal amount and interest at a lower rate. However, in case of emergencies, certain banks do waive off the penalty.



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