Digital payments to skyrocket 3X to over Rs 7,000 lakh cr by FY25; mobile payments to see highest growth

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The maximum growth is likely to be witnessed in the mobile payments segment at 58 per cent from Rs 25 lakh crore to Rs 245 lakh crore.

The nascent yet fast-evolving digital payments industry in India, propelled by policy framework and technology penetration, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27 per cent during the FY20-25 period. The growth in retail electronic payment systems including National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT), mobile banking, and development of payment acceptance infrastructure is likely to boost digital payment transactions from Rs 2,153 lakh crore in FY20 to Rs 7,092 lakh crore in FY25, according to the India Trend Book Report 2021 by the Indian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (IVCA) and Ernst & Young.

The digital payments market, which has been led by companies such as Paytm, PhonePe, Pine Labs, Razorpay, BharatPe, and others on the B2C and B2B sides, has surged expeditiously with businesses offering cash backs, rewards, and offers to woo customers. Moreover, the recent pandemic has stimulated the demand for digital wallets as contactless payment is reckoned as the new normal protocol. Policy frameworks, on the other hand, such as Pre-Paid Instruments (PPI), Universal Payment Interface (UPI) by the NPCI apart from Aadhar, and the launch of BHIM-app have driven the financial inclusion and improved the payment acceptance infrastructure in the country.

In terms of segment-wise growth, the payment gateway aggregator market is expected to grow at around 19 per cent CAGR from Rs 9.5 lakh crore in FY20 to Rs 22.6 lakh crore in FY25 while the merchant payments segment is likely to see 52 per cent growth from Rs 4.7 lakh crore to Rs 33 lakh crore during the said period. The maximum growth is likely to be witnessed in the mobile payments segment at 58 per cent from Rs 25 lakh crore to Rs 245 lakh crore.

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Meanwhile, the overall fintech market, which also catered to online lending, wealth management, insurance technology, etc., is likely to grow from Rs 1.9 lakh crore in 2019 at a CAGR of 22.7 per cent during the period 2020-25. While some fintech subsectors such as MSME digital lending have been facing temporary downturn, others including digital payments and insurtech have benefitted from Covid-induced digital adoption among consumers. According to the IVCA report, India has emerged as Asia’s biggest destination for fintech deals, leaving behind China in the quarter ended June 2020. Amid COVID-19, India saw a 60 per cent YoY increase in fintech investments to $1.5 billion in 1H20.

“Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward a more digital world. It has changed the ways businesses were done and technology is at the forefront of these changes. Opportunities for internet and tech companies have increased multifold in the last one year. Wide penetration of internet and lower internet cost has complemented the digital and technology trend for consumers and have changed the ways of shopping, education, agriculture, retail, logistics, finance, health, etc. businesses,” said Ankur Bansal, Co-founder and Director, BlackSoil.

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Fin-techs see spike in delinquent accounts after Covid-19 pandemic

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“They require policies to implement loan restructuring for consumers based on certain criteria — encouraging consumers to at least partially repay their debts,” the report said.

With a huge spike in delinquent accounts after the pandemic, fin-techs have seen a sharp deterioration in their portfolios. At 43%, fin-techs had eight times more delinquent accounts than private banks for whom the comparable figure was 5% for August 2020, TransUnion Cibil said in a joint report with the Digital Lenders’ Association of India (DLAI).

There is a need for fin-techs to place greater focus on collections in the light of heightened delinquencies and a riskier customer base, the report said. “Compared to peer members, the huge volumes sourced by fin-techs were largely small-ticket loans and from riskier segments,” the report said.

It added that in contrast, banks have generally been lending to consumers in prime and above risk tiers and those with a relatively stable flow of income, while also leveraging their liability base to acquire personal loans. “At the same time, fin-techs have onboarded consumers with low credit scores and leveraged more alternative data.”

The rise in delinquent accounts calls for a closer look at portfolios and emphasises the need for better collection strategies, the report said. It also observed that the upsurge in delinquent accounts after February 2020 is attributable to accounts flowing to a higher delinquency bucket each month — bloating the 90+ days past due (DPD) bucket. To avoid high non-performing assets (NPAs), fin-techs need to manage delinquent accounts in early collections buckets, the report said.

In the current situation, as the moratorium has ended, more consumers will enter delinquency buckets and make the collection process even more challenging, the report said. Traditional collection strategies work well for banks due to their superior physical reach, larger team sizes, and multitude and size of loans. Fin-tech lenders need a different approach.

“They require policies to implement loan restructuring for consumers based on certain criteria — encouraging consumers to at least partially repay their debts,” the report said.

With credit for demand expected to climb during and after the festive season, partial repayments will help lenders manage their balance sheets. There is a pressing need for a robust and cost-effective collection mechanism to maintain overall profitability, according to the report.

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