Tag: experts

As many states in India seem to be heading for a total lockdown, the World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart has opined that less extreme forms of lockdown can work in a country like India, sparking a debate on their efficacy.

While some favour total lockdown because it can protect lives, others think that a lockdown would destroy livelihoods and thus lives.

A lockdown was necessary to help India develop its healthcare infrastructure to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. Now that is in place along with treatment protocols, there is no need for another lockdown, opine many.

World Bank view

“I think in countries like India, a very big challenge to the lockdown approach has been the informal sector, she told ET.

There are ways of addressing, perhaps less extreme forms of lockdown that allow for some flexibility. But vaccines alone have to still be supplemented with health emergency measures, she said, adding “I have no doubt that that is still the case. And I do think the big challenge remains the tension between needing to work for survival and the tension of containing the pandemic.”

“The informal economy has been and continues to be a big challenge for India but I would say vaccines alone, at this stage, don’t do it. You still need the other protection mechanisms of social distancing and the like,” she said.

Lancet Commission

The Lancet Covid-19 Commission India Task Force has not recommended a blanket national or state lockdown, as opposed to localized, phased restrictions or closures.

Its report said the experience of the past year has shown that economic closures are most disruptive to the poorest sections of the society. In urban areas, daily wage earners, informal sector workers, and low-skill workers are the most likely to be impoverished from disruptions in economic activities.

Yet, experience from other countries has shown that lockdowns do assist in bringing down transmission rates.

Middle approach

A middle ground approach will be needed in India. “We recommend that in areas of high infection rates, the focus is on breaking the chain of transmission through local actions. We recommend that advisories be issued that strongly encourage anyone that can to remain at home (white collar workers, for example, who can work from home) to do so”, the report said.

“We also recommend that venues that host large congregations should be closed, and activities that encourage large gatherings should be banned”, it added. But restrictions on the movement or work of the working urban and rural poor should be minimized and locally determined through the creation of micro-containment zones in high case-load areas.

Localised trends

Decisions on local lockdowns or curfews are best left to local authorities and must be based on localised trends in epidemiological data (transmission, test positivity rates, hospitalisation, and mortality rates). These decisions should be made after in-depth consultations with local businesses, community leaders, and workers associations.

More importantly, extra care needs to be taken in terms of testing and vaccinations to ensure that workers are protected and are safe during this current phase of the pandemic, the report said.

The central government take

Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan had written to Maharashtra Chief Secretary Sitaram Kunte stating that the state’s focus should be on strict and effective containment, not the imposition of a lockdown.

“Measures such as night curfews, weekend lockdowns, have very limited impact on containing/ suppressing the transmission. Hence the district administration should focus on strict and effective containment strategy,” Bhushan wrote.