‘Have a long-term view, nothing happens overnight’: Hiren Ved of Alchemy

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Born in a family with a very strong ‘equity culture’, it was but natural that Hiren Ved, CEO, Director, and CIO, Alchemy Capital Management would gravitate towards the stock market. Hiren started his equity market career in 1991. He joined Alchemy to spearhead its asset management business in 2000 as the 4th partner along with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Lashit Sanghvi and Ashwin Kedia. Today, he manages/advises funds worth nearly a billion dollars across domestic and offshore mandates. BL Portfolio caught up to understand his personal finance philosophies, investing journey highlights and crucial lessons over three decades.

What does money mean to you?

Money is just a means, not the end goal. You need a basic amount of money to take care of your needs and comforts and a little bit for luxury. Money is obviously one of the parameters that people use to determine how successful a person has been. Though, in my opinion it’s not the most important parameter for success. Fortunately, in my profession, money is the by product of doing what I do with passion, and it gives me happiness.

When did you start investing?

My dad has been investing now for decades together. When I was still in school, he would take me to these AGMs and make me listen to Rahul Bajaj, Dhirubhai Ambani or HT Parekh. In college, I actually carried forward that interest. We teamed up with accounting professors and ran a stock market game. We were given paper money basically. We all used to report our trades to our professor and he would keep a log of it. While I was in college, during the vacations, I worked with a market research firm called IMRB. That was the first time I earned my own money and then I started to invest that money in the market during college time.

Do you remember your first investments?

Yes. I bought a share of Ponds, which then became part of Hindustan Unilever. I had invested in ITC. I don’t remember but I also invested in one or two very small companies, which finally went bankrupt, or didn’t go anywhere. So, that’s how I learned slowly and steadily. Whatever savings that I could gather, I used to always invest. Because our family had a long history of investing, for us the only avenue to put all your savings was in the stock market. I understood the power of compounding money very early.

There is a custom in our family now that whenever a new baby is born, the standard operating procedure is that you deposit the money to be gifted to the child in some stocks. Even if they can afford to buy one share or two shares, they would buy them. My dad and my uncle started this practice where they would gift some shares to a newborn, instead of giving cash.

Tell us about your portfolio allocation.

I keep a very small amount of money in money bank for any exigencies. But otherwise, I have no fixed deposits. I have no other fixed income.

Don’t you feel afraid that all of your savings is in the stock market?

Yes, many ask me this. ‘It’s all paper money, one fine day it can go down to half. Like it happened in 2008?’ I say no. I was thrown into the proverbial water at a very small age. So, I learned how to swim and not to be afraid of the water. The very concept that one needs to understand is that prices can fluctuate, but value in a good company keeps increasing. Compounding, like any other skill, has to be learned and I grasped it much earlier in life.

How did Alchemy happen for you?

When I started, I wanted to understand how investing works, how to do research, how to pick companies etc. In those good old times, there were very few brokers who were actually doing fundamental research. Kisan Ratilal Choksey was one such firm. I worked there for four and a half years. Then, I got an opportunity to work with Prime Securities, it was a very different setting. After 8-9 years, I thought now I know quite a bit of how this is done. It’s now time to become an entrepreneur, and do it yourself. And, we got talking, and at that time, Lashit Sanghvi, Ashwin Kedia, who are also other co-founders. They were very good friends. And also, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

Start-ups are a big thing today but in those days weren’t you apprehensive?

At that time, again, there were not too many PMS houses, so there was not too many professional people who were managing money for other people. We always thought that there would be a need to do something. And it was also a passion for us to find stocks and invest. So we said, why not invest for other people who don’t know how to do it? Or for those who need professional help? It was a bold move at that time. There was no concept of start-ups at that time. But yes, it was a startup in many senses. We literally started in a small office with with just one back-office person and and myself. Obviously, we’ve grown significantly since day one when we had five crores and seven clients

What are the financial goals that drive you today as an individual?

Well, I don’t have a any particular number in mind. I think I have enough to live a decent life. But beyond the point, the goal is more about the fun in the process. I want to make as much money as I can in my lifetime. And the beauty of the investing business is that there is no age bar. And as long as you are sane in the head, conviction in your gut, you can just keep adding.

I just want to keep growing my investments and obviously, I will use a little bit of it for me and my family. I also give back to society. Some of the money will go to my son as inheritance. I will only give him that much that he doesn’t become too lazy. So, that he uses it more as a backup and, and takes risks, like I did at some point in time in my life, and build something on his own.

You are fully invested into equities, but many are afraid to get into stocks now due to valuation concerns. Is that fear justified?

Many investors have this feeling that the markets are too high and they are trying to correlate what is happening on the ground because of Covid. They think markets are in their own world. But, the reality is something different.

There is this constant fear, because there is something which is called as the recency bias. Because you saw the Nifty at 7500 and in a year’s time plus you’re seeing it at 16,000 it’s not something that people can digest very easily. These valuations are not very excessive, if you look at where we are in the long-term profit cycle.

These days all the conventional valuation metrics seem to be out of sync when it comes to IPO valuations. How do you view new-age IPOs?

It’s good that the IPO market is doing well. A thriving IPO market always gets new investors to the market who then stay back as they then graduate from being pure IPO investors to secondary market investors. So, it increases the pool of participants. Start-ups and high growth businesses such as Zomato need to be valued differently as their current profitability may not be optimal because they are sacrificing near term profits for achieving rapid scale in a very short period of time. Having said that the end goal after a few years for these companies will also be the same as any healthy enterprise. They will have to improve their unit economics and generate sustainable cashflows and generate a decent return on capital invested. So, valuing these businesses require more ingenuity, vision and insight into how these businesses will unfold.

How can investors keep a level head be it bull markets or bear markets?

One, have a long term view. Nothing happens overnight.

Two, understand well what you own. If you understand what you own you will have the conviction to hold it.

Three, do what makes you comfortable. Don’t try to emulate others, no matter how great or successful the investor. You need to come to terms with your own personality and obviously work on building an aptitude for investing.

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Equity investing: Paytm Money app gaining traction

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Paytm Money, a subsidiary of IPO-bound Paytm, has 2,08,000 equity trading accounts as of March 31, 2021. This has been disclosed in the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) that the financial services major One 97 Communications (Paytm) filed with SEBI recently for its proposed ₹ 16,600 crore initial public offering (IPO).

This performance of having over two lakh equity trading accounts may be noteworthy as Paytm Money had started providing stock broking services only in 2020, capital market observers said.

Although the total number of users availing Paytm Money’s stock broking services has increased and continues to grow, it is still less than one per cent of Paytm’s monthly active customer base. On an overall basis, there are over 33 crore users in the country who are availing various payment and other financial services offered by Paytm.

Rise in demat accounts

Post the first wave of Covid-19 and pandemic induced lockdown, there has been a sharp rise in the number of new demat account sign-ups in the country. There has been an increase of 70 lakh new demat accounts in 2020-21, taking the overall number of demat accounts as of end March 2021 to 6.2 crore. The rise in new age digital-only platforms in recent years has only brought in new investors and accelerated the opening of demat accounts, reflecting growing participation in equity markets.

Also read: Paytm files for biggest Indian IPO

Several investors in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities and beyond are now able to access the equity markets directly on the back of technology leap and digital offerings by online broking companies. Also the fact that millennials have taken to equity trading in a big way out of their apps has also helped push this trend, say capital market observers.

As of end March 2020, India had 5.5 crore demat accounts, more than double the level of 2.5 crore accounts in end March 2016.

Paytm Money’s equity investing and trading platform is helping make direct equity investing accessible across India, including the under penetrated segments.

Paytm Money has achieved a combined assets under management (AUM) of ₹ 5,200 crore in mutual funds, gold and stock trading as on March 31,2021, the IPO prospectus showed.

Digital gold

Users have taken to purchasing digital gold from Paytm Gold in a big way going by the number of investors who had used this service. Since the launch of the digital gold service in 2017, as many as 7.4 crore investors have used the Paytm Gold’s digital gold services, according to the IPO prospectus filed with regulator. Many investors had also opted for the systematic gold withdrawal savings plan.

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Why betting on stocks based on big-picture themes doesn’t work

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No one can resist the onward march of an idea whose time has come, Victor Hugo said. In bull markets, there are many who apply this to stock investing as well. While conventional investors run screeners, scan company filings and analyse quarterly numbers to identify buys, idea investors believe that to find multi-baggers, all they need to do is latch on to a powerful idea.

So, the moment the Centre announces an Atmanirbhar Bharat push, they’re buying chemical or pharma intermediate companies. In a Digital India push, they’re buying fibre-optic cable makers. When it announces higher FDI in insurance or defense, they’re buying up listed insurers or PSU defense equipment makers. If e-commerce is taking off, they buy logistics stocks and if States are ramping up Covid testing, they bet on diagnostic labs.

But exciting as it may seem, selecting stocks based on such big-picture themes seldom adds durable wealth to one’s portfolio. If you’re itching to try it out, watch out for these pitfalls.

Skipped homework

Most long-term winners in one’s stock portfolio come from understanding a company’s business better than others in the market, spotting a sector trend early or buying a business when the market is under-estimating its potential. But when you’re chasing hot new ideas, there’s often no room for deep study of a company or a sector. Being in a hurry to ride a wave before it fizzles out, can force you to skip necessary homework, leading you to buy lemons.

A recent and somewhat extreme example of an idea stock that proved to be full of hot air is Bombay Oxygen Investments. As the media filled with reports of oxygen shortages during the second wave of Covid, thematic investors scrambled for companies that would gain from this theme. Bombay Oxygen Investments, thanks to the keyword in its name, shot up by 140 per cent between end-March and mid-April from ₹10,000 to over ₹24,000. But after little digging revealed that the ‘oxygen’ in the company’s name was a legacy of the past, the stock crashed 40 per cent.

The company, earlier in the business of manufacturing industrial gases, had discontinued this activity in August 2019 to secure a NBFC license from RBI. Since December 2019, it has been engaged in investment operations that have nothing to do with oxygen.

Shifting focus

While Bombay Oxygen may not have set out to deliberately mislead investors, there are many companies in the Indian market that are ever willing to oblige fickle markets by entering any business that seems to be the current flavour of the season. Scores of obscure firms attached ‘cyber’ to their names during the dotcom boom, construction companies transformed into ‘infra’ firms in the 2007-08 bull market and several new ‘logistics’ companies cropped up in the e-commerce boom. Owning such companies can be quite a roller-coaster, because you may find that instead of sticking to and scaling up in the business you bet on, they are constantly shifting shape to cater to market preferences.

Investors in Vakrangee Software have seen it morph from a company focussed on last-mile financial inclusion, to a play on e-governance and Digital India, to a retailer for Bharat in a short five-year span. Originally a franchisee for the Aadhar UID project in 2010, Vakrangee pivoted to being an e-governance firm that helped folks in tier-3 towns and villages perform internet-related tasks through an extensive network of over 40,000 Vakrangee Kendras in 2016-17. It then made unrelated forays, through subsidiaries into providing logistics for e-commerce giants and retailing gold. Even as the company’s revenues have taken a sharp tumble, it is readying yet another pivot, from e-governance to setting up a pan-India ATM network. While the stock has crashed over 90 per cent from its peak of ₹500, the company has run into governance issues as well after scotching a ₹1000 crore buyback plan, abrupt resignation of its auditor and penalties from SEBI for fraudulent trading in the stock.

To avoid betting on such wrong horses, run a check on the company’s annual reports and management commentary over the years. Frequent business pivots are a sign that the management is more focused on managing its stock price than on building a scalable business.

Execution woes

Idea investors focus a lot on big-picture trends that will play out in future. In the process, they may forget to check if the company they’re betting on has the execution capability to translate its larger-than-life vision into reality.

A good example of a great-sounding idea turning out to be a pipe dream is Educomp Solutions, a favourite stock with idea investors between 2008 and 2010. Listed in 2006, the company’s management successfully marketed the idea that Indian schools mostly using old-world methods of chalk-and-board teaching, were ripe for digital transformation pan-India. The hardware company, engaged in the computerization of schools pan-India, showcased itself as a high-growth play on ed-tech solutions for K-12 education. Within three years of listing, it was reporting 100 per cent revenue growth with operating profit margins of 48 per cent. Having installed its Smartclass solutions in about 2500 schools, it set itself a target of expanding to 15,000 schools and a ₹1000 crore revenue. It later transpired that in its aggressive bid to sign on more schools, Educomp didn’t pay attention to whether these school tie-ups actually translated into revenues. After many delayed or skipped payments, the company faced mounting receivables and debt, defaulted on bank loans and turned an NPA in 2016. It was later subject to CBI raids. The stock which hit dizzying heights of over ₹1000 in its heydays is currently at ₹3.

Educomp’s story is a lesson that captivating big-picture ideas need not translate into profits on the ground. It pays to be particularly wary of managements who set order-of-magnitude targets and sell you big dreams.

Not all idea-based stocks turn out to be lemons on the scale of a Bombay Oxygen or an Educomp or a Vakrangee. Investors in the stocks of diagnostic chains or pharma API companies have for instance, made significant gains in the last one year. But this is more because such companies already had established business models that had evolved over many years and had operating metrics, even before the Covid opportunity came by. Even in such cases, long-term investors may need to ask two questions – whether the big pop in earnings from the opportunity will sustain and whether stock valuations already factor in a best-case scenario.

Overall, even if idea-based investing excites you, it may be best allocate only a fixed portion of your portfolio to such opportunistic bets.

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New investor? Here are 3 mutual fund categories for you to invest in

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If you are a new investor seeking to make a foray into equity investing, it may be better to start the journey with equity mutual funds and not jump straight away into direct equity investing and trading. Many investors who start investing in high-risk investment avenues such as direct equities often get carried away by the rush and make mistakes which put their investments and sometimes, the journey itself, at risk. With direct equity stocks, you have to do extensive research before investing and track the investment closely, while in mutual funds, there are experts who make the investing decisions and do the tracking. These professionals understand the stock and market dynamics more closely and manage your money with measured risk. Your first brush with mutual funds carries less risk of leaving you with a bad experience than the first brush with direct equity investing.

Among the wide variety of equity-oriented funds available in the market, you can look at three categories — large-cap equity funds, equity index funds and aggressive hybrid funds — that can help you to participate in the equity market with relatively moderate risk compared with many other equity fund categories.

You can consider investing in these funds through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route that are better equipped to absorb market shocks. SIPs also help inculcate the habit of saving and building wealth for the future. The ideal investment horizon should be long-term — at least 5 years or more.

Large-cap funds

As required by the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), large-cap funds invest at least 80 per cent in companies ranked 1st-100th in terms of full market capitalisation. These funds invest in stocks that are primarily included in the Nifty 50, Nifty 100 or BSE 100 indices. These are often stocks of blue-chip companies — large well-established organisations, often in sound financial shape with relatively good earnings potential. They generally have lower volatility and are less vulnerable to adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment compared to smaller companies.

The large-cap category can weather market downturns better during bear and corrective phases compared to other equity-oriented categories such as mid-cap and multi-cap categories. On the other hand, large-cap funds tend to underperform the smaller counterparts during equity market rallies. However, they often generate better risk adjusted returns over the long run.

Axis Bluechip, Mirae Asset Large Cap and Canara Robeco Bluechip Equity are some of the top-performing schemes in the large-cap category. These funds are rated five-star by BusinessLine Portfolio Star Track MF Ratings.

 

 

Index funds

Index funds are passively managed mutual funds seeking to replicate the performance of the underlying benchmark without active management by fund managers. They imitate the portfolio of an index (say, Nifty 50) by investing in stocks that are part of the index in the same proportion as in the index. On the other hand, actively managed funds aim to outperform their benchmarks with the help of fund managers. With no active management, index funds have much lower charges (expense ratios) than actively managed funds.

Index funds are a good option for investors seeking index-linked returns. There are currently 35 index funds in the market tracking various indices. From among these, you can consider index funds tracking the Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50 and Nifty 500 indices. The Nifty 50 is one of the most traded indices in the world and the top-traded derivative index in India. The Nifty Next 50 enables you to invest in stocks that have the potential to become part of the Nifty 50 Index in the future. The Nifty 500 index covers more than 95 per cent of the listed universe on the NSE in terms of full-market capitalisation.

Index funds that have lower expense ratio and less tracking error (deviation in returns from the benchmark) are preferred. UTI Nifty Index Fund, ICICI Prudential Nifty Next 50 Index Fund and Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 index funds are good choices.

Aggressive hybrid funds

As mandated by SEBI, aggressive hybrid funds allocate 65-80 per cent of their corpus to equity investments, while the rest is invested in debt instruments. The higher allocation to equity can help deliver good returns in the long run. Debt exposure helps cap losses in market downturns. These funds are treated like equity funds for taxation purposes.

The schemes under the aggressive hybrid fund category depreciate less during market corrections and appreciate less during rallies compared with other equity-oriented categories. Lower volatility can result in superior risk-adjusted returns compared with many other equity-oriented categories over the long term.

SBI Equity Hybrid, Canara Robeco Equity Hybrid and ICICI Pru Equity & Debt are some of the better performing funds under the aggressive hybrid category.

While the equity portion of these funds is often managed with multi-cap approach, the debt portion is deployed in fixed income instruments with varying maturities, depending on the interest-rate movement in the economy.

Safer start

It’s safer to start equity investing with mutual funds that are managed by investment professionals than with direct equity investing that involves investing and tracking on one’s own. There is a higher risk of burning your fingers in the latter.

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