Shiba Inu crypto falls from record after Musk damps speculation

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Elon Musk helped Shiba Inu vault up the ranks of the largest cryptocurrencies by market value by tweeting a photo of his puppy. Now the meme token is down after he said he doesn’t own any.

Musk, who has repeatedly touted Dogecoin on social media and frequently commented on cryptocurrencies more broadly, responded to a query from a Twitter user asking how much Shiba Inu he holds with, “None.” In a follow-up tweet, he said he has bought Bitcoin, Ether and Dogecoin, and “that’s it.”

As of 9.30 a.m. on Monday, SHIB, as the crypto is known, was down 15 per cent from its all-time high reached on Sunday Hong Kong time, according to pricing from CoinGecko.com. The token – centered around a breed of Japanese hunting dogs – has risen more than 400 per cent in the past 30 days to be the 11th-largest by value.

Also read: Bitcoin and why its value has rocketed once again

Dogecoin has climbed about 10 per cent in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Shiba Inu has rallied amid factors including a push to get it listed on Robinhood, its ecosystem’s foray into non-fungible tokens and general enthusiasm for meme assets.

However, many market observers say there’s often little reason for its movements and caution that the token may struggle to maintain its current momentum. It was founded in 2020 by an anonymous person going by the name Ryoshi.

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Is another bitcoin crash inevitable?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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There is one simple thumb rule to investing in assets, Bitcoin included, and it is – learning to take volatility in your stride. Given the fickle nature of the investment world where the graph swings wildly, it takes a strong heart to ride the wave. Trading in Bitcoins is no exception.

A lot has happened since the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto gave the first Bitcoin specification with proof of concept in 2009. Two years later, on February 9, 2011, the cryptocurrency (or crypto) reached parity with the US Dollar at a 1:1 ratio. This means you could buy a Bitcoin for just one dollar. Since then, Bitcoin has been on a roller coaster ride touching $62,006.92 on April 17, 2021. To put things into perspective, between Feb 9, 2011 and April 17, 2021, the value of the Bitcoin has gone up by nearly 62,00,600 percent. Yes, the figure could boggle your mind, but that’s what it is. As of August 29, the crypto was trading at $48,616.15. The $1,00,000 mark predicted by optimists is yet to happen though.

Nakamoto, in setting a 21 million cap, created a distinct identity for the world’s foremost cryptocurrency. With a circulating supply of around 18 million Bitcoins against the above maximum cap, the fluctuation is only expected to increase. Regulatory statements coming out from Russia and China and idiosyncrasies of investors such as Elon Musk and Michael Saylor only add to the edge-of-the-seat excitement in the Bitcoin world.

History of Bitcoin crash
Bitcoin has witnessed several small and big ‘Boom and Bust’ cycles ever since it arrived on the investment horizon. Here are two significant crashes that are still talked about.

  • Between April 10 and 12, 2013, the cryptocurrency shed more than 80 percent of its value.
  • In December 2017, the cryptocurrency’s value peaked at around $20,000, and after this high, it considerably collapsed.

When it comes to Bitcoins, everyone’s opinions stand divided. Warren Buffett had termed Bitcoin as a risky and speculative asset. On the other end of the trading spectrum, support from critic-turned-fan Saylor makes Bitcoin investors hum Yeh Dil Maange More.

The unpredictability notwithstanding, what makes investing in Bitcoins interesting is that, unlike the institutional investors who buy it in large numbers, individuals too can own a fraction of this crypto down to the eighth decimal point. It thus makes sense when Saylor tweeted last year that he holds 17,732 Bitcoins that he bought for $9,882 apiece. This declaration came much before the business analytics platform – MicroStrategy that he heads did so. More and more institutional investors are pouring money into Bitcoins as compared to retail ones.

Will we see another Bitcoin crash?
Any investment is done primarily for returns. The higher the returns, the higher would be the investment. Backing exactly this sentiment, Saylor and his ilk preferred Bitcoins over gold. In 2020, Bitcoin outdid every other asset to give 318 percent returns.

Over the last year or so, there has been a steady influx of positive stories on the Bitcoin front:

  • In September 2020, MicroStrategy acquired a total of 38,250 bitcoins valued at $425 million and subsequently announced its intentions to raise another $537.2 million to buy even more bitcoin
  • In October 2020, PayPal allowed their customers to buy, sell, and hold bitcoin using their online wallets.
  • In February this year, electric car manufacturer Tesla announced that they had bought $1.5 billion in Bitcoins. The company added that they are also likely to accept the cryptocurrency as payments.
  • Recently, El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and the Argentinian President also said that he is open to the idea of treating cryptos as legal currency.

These stories have boosted the sentiment around Bitcoins.
However, going back to what we mentioned at the start of the story. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Their prices will touch highs and lows all the time, so it’s tough to predict a rise or crash. Nobody can say that with any guarantee or certainty. But what you can do as an investor is be prudent when it comes to investing in Bitcoins.

One approach that you can follow is rupee-cost averaging. Instead of buying Bitcoins for a lump sum amount in one go, what you can do is spread your investment over a period of time. This will shield you from Bitcoin’s volatility upto a certain extent and also give you better returns.

The best time to buy Bitcoin was 2009 and the next best time is today. Helping you invest in Bitcoins in a safe, secure and simple manner is ZebPay. With ZebPay, you can begin your cryptocurrency journey for as little as Rs 100. Start now and get ready to ride the crypto wave!

Bitcoin’s recent report card

  • December 16, 2020: Bitcoin touches $20,000/coin for the first time ever
  • April 13, 2021: Bitcoin touches a record high of $63,375
  • June 22, 2021: Bitcoin slips under $30,000 for the first time in five months
  • August 2, 2021: Bitcoin rally takes it to the highest level since May at $40,000
  • August 23, 2021: Bitcoin returns to above the $50,000 mark

Disclaimer: The above content is non-editorial, and TIL hereby disclaims any and all warranties, expressed or implied, relating to the same. The article does not constitute investment advice. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated and verified.



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Bitcoin rallies past $40,000 level to highest since mid-May, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The largest cryptocurrency gained Sunday for an 11th day in the past 12 and traded up to $42,606, its highest since May 18. Market watchers have pointed to $40,000 as an important inflection point. It was up about 0.5% at $41,739 as of 6:13 a.m. New York time on Sunday.

“A run like this certainly suggests some flow backing,” said Jonathan Cheesman, head of over-the-counter and institutional sales at crypto derivatives exchange FTX, in a note Saturday. “Of course, it now needs to stabilize here — and above the high from May 20 would be further confirmation.” Bitcoin traded as high as $42,541 on May 20.

Bitcoin, which for weeks trended downward from its mid-April record near $65,000, has now spent more than a week building back as supportive comments from Elon Musk and Cathie Wood helped bump it out of a declining trend. Digital-asset-related job postings by Amazon.com Inc. and resulting speculation helped as well.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst for North America at Oanda Corp., a offered a note of caution about the recent run.

“Retail interest is strong, while institutional interest is somewhat lagging and needing fresh endorsements,” he said in a note on Friday. “Bitcoin volatility might remain elevated over the weekend and traders should not be surprised if a spike occurs toward the $42,000 level during some illiquid times.”

Still, the cryptocurrency has risen over the past week back above its 50- and 100-day moving averages, with the 200-day at about $44,700 in sight.

“It won’t be surprising to see Bitcoin expand the $30,000 to $42,000 trading range on the upside and attempt $45,000,” Pankaj Balani, chief executive officer of crypto derivatives exchange Delta Exchange, said in a note July 27.

“However, breaking above $50,000 will take some doing for Bitcoin. Only a conclusive break above $50,000 would attract fresh flows and signal a change in the broader direction for the market.”



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Dogecoin, Polkadot, Cardano shed up to 12%, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi: Major cryptocurrencies took a brief pause on Tuesday, thanks to profit booking. Barring dollar-pegged tokens, top crypto tokens were trading lower at 9:30 hours IST. Musk’s favorite Dogecoin declined over 12 per cent, leading the pack of losers.

The global crypto market cap jumped to $1.45 trillion, a 4.26 per cent increase over the last day. However, the total crypto market volume gained 26 per cent to $113.12 billion.

The euphoria over a major push by Elon Musk and speculation over Amazon’s involvement in the crypto industry fizzled out and investors decided to take some profit off the table.

Chartists see the overall outlook as still bearish. The next few days remain very crucial, they said.

“Bitcoin broke free after months, skyrocketed to $39,400 mark, before investors booked some profits. Buyers were quite active over the weekend and it is trending towards the $40,000 mark,” said ZebPay Trade Desk.

“BTC has had a spillover effect on some altcoins too, as Aave, Bitcoin Cash and Chainlink have also witnessed significant double-digit growth in the last two days. Ethereum, too, has seen a decent appreciation, which can fuel a rally in other assets too,” it added.

South Korea will look to tighten a crackdown on tax evasion by cryptocurrency investors and high-income earners as it seeks fresh revenue to cover rising welfare costs, its finance ministry said. The regulation may come next year.


Tech View by Giottus Cryptocurrency Exchange
Ethereum Classic (ETC) is the soft fork of the Ethereum network. Its prices have multiplied throughout its lifecycle and is currently among top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Many investors are bullish on ETC with considerable buying during the consolidation phase in recent weeks.

ETC enjoys high volumes right now as it trades in the $46-$50 range. ETC has been in an ascending channel for more than a week now. An ascending channel is a temporary bullish pattern, but the price action in the ascending channel usually breaks down.

Hence, investors can probably find better entries than current prices. Grayscale Investments has recently offloaded more than 28,000 ETC from its portfolio, signaling a bearish sentiment.

On the longer timeframe, ETC is making a wedge and should follow pivot support and resistance.

Major Levels:
Support: $38, $41
Resistance: $55.8, $61

Time is in UTC and the daily time frame is 12:00 AM – 12: 00 PM UTC

(Views and recommendations given in this section are the analysts’ own and do not represent those of ETMarkets.com. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any position in the asset/s mentioned.)



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Bitcoin leaps 12% to test recent peaks, ether hits 3-week high, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Cryptocurrencies popped to the top of recent ranges on Monday as short sellers bailed out in the wake of a strong week and while traders hoped a handful of positive comments from influential investors might signal a turnaround in fragile sentiment.

Bitcoin rose as far as 12.5% to hit $39,850, its highest since mid-June during the Asia session, while ether hit a three-week peak of $2,344. On the heels of bitcoin’s best week in almost three months, the move put the squeeze on short sellers.

Last week, cryptocurrency enthusiast and Tesla boss Elon Musk said the carmarker would likely resume accepting bitcoin once it conducts due diligence on its energy use. It had suspended such payments in May, contributing to a sharp crypto selloff.

Twitter boss Jack Dorsey also said last week that the digital currency is a “big part” of the social media firm’s future and, on Sunday, London’s City A.M. newspaper reported – citing an un-named “insider” – that Amazon is looking to accept bitcoin payments by year’s end.

Brokers said that taken together the remarks were enough to finally lift the market from the floor of support where it has held steady since a May plunge, while data also pointed to heavy short-seller liquidations – suggesting many might have given up.

“Over the last five trading sessions we’ve seen general near-term bullishness in the market, driven by key technicals, as well as recent positive comments,” said Ryan Rabaglia, global head of trading at digital asset platform OSL.

“With a record $1.2 billion in shorts liquidated over the past 24 hours, the outlook and momentum for the week ahead is positive,” he said.

Bitcoin was last up 8% at $38,064, putting it within sight of resistance around June’s $41,341.57 peak just a week after it was testing support at $29,500.

Ether was last up 5% at $2,304.



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Desi startup starts taking Bitcoin in payments despite govt warnings, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: Till now, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are seen largely as an asset class to invest in to gain from price appreciation.

In the US, some businesses have also started accepting them as currencies for payments. Tesla famously started accepting it and then stopped it a few months back, citing environmental concerns. But CEO Elon Musk now says they may accept it again soon.

Microsoft, Coca Cola and AXA Insurance have also shown willingness to accept cryptocurrency as payment for select services and products in some territories.

In India, amid heavy resistance from the government and the Reserve Bank of India, cryptocurrencies are yet to gain a broader acceptance.

But one Indian startup has ventured out to start accepting cryptocurrencies for payments. The Rug Republic – a homegrown décor brand – is one. The Okhla, Delhi-based firm said it would accept top 20 cryptocurrencies for payments, but only from Indian customers.

Cryptocurrencies are neither legal, nor illegal in India. Lately, banks, likely on the insistence of RBI, have started disassociating from cryptocurrency exchanges. Other government agencies have also started tightening their noose against these tokens.

Their major concern is the anonymity that the blockchain network — the technology on which cryptocurrencies are based on — will lead to tax evasion, terror funding or any other nefarious activity. However, businesses are taking additional measures to track where the money is coming from.

“It is a misconception that crypto transactions cannot be tracked. It is easily verifiable on the blockchain, as opposed to the incredibly difficult ways money can be hidden in the real world. As we have seen with so many people during the Panama Papers episodes. Our invoices clearly mention that money was taken in certain currency on this date and at this price. Everything is absolutely above board,” said Raghav Gupta, Director at The Rug Republic.

Some sovereign countries such as Nicaragua and El Salvador have embraced cryptocurrencies, with the latter becoming the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.

Gupta, who exports his products outside India as well, said his firm will not accept crypto payments outside India, as such transactions could be in violation of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), as they constitute cross-border payments in a currency not recognised by RBI.

Is it a publicity stunt? Why else is he taking such a risk when the rules regarding cryptocurrencies are not clear? The promoter says he believes these tokens will eventually gain prominence in India. And, it will form a good asset base for him in some years.

“It is clear that not even 5 per cent of my revenue will come from it. I am extremely bullish on it in a 5-10 year scale. I am very happy to take this risk. Ethereum will be much more valuable by then,” said Gupta.



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Finding Sustainable Coins, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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These are uncertain times for cryptocurrencies. The asset class experienced major volatility over the second week of May, with Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, losing almost 50% of its total value in the meltdown. June has been equally tumultuous for the cryptocurrency, with prices falling below the $30,000 level for the first time since the year began.

One of the reasons attributed to the spectacular fall in the price of cryptocurrencies is tech- entrepreneur Elon Musk’s decision to suspend the acceptance of Bitcoin as a form of payment at his electric vehicle and clean energy company, Tesla Inc. Musk’s decision came in the wake of concerns surrounding the environmental impact of mining Bitcoins, with the one-time enthusiast suggesting that his company will look for sustainable alternatives.

The general scepticism surrounding cryptocurrencies’ status as an unsustainable asset comes at an interesting time for India. Reports suggest that the Indian government intends to set up a panel of experts that will study the prospect of regulating cryptocurrencies, with the Reserve Bank of India recently clarifying the possibility of crypto transactions being scrutinized under extant money laundering and foreign exchange laws. Amid the speculation surrounding the enactment of an enabling regulatory framework for dealing in cryptocurrencies in India, this article will argue that such regulation must account for mechanisms that monitor their environmental impact.

Cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency that largely allows users to perform the same functions as paper money. Transactions involving cryptocurrencies are usually peer-to-peer, with details of each transaction recorded on a public ledger known as blockchain. The process of verifying and adding such transactions to the blockchain is known as mining. Simply put, mining involves solving a series of increasingly complex math problems using highly specialized equipment, to add and modify the existing ledger of transactions available to a cryptocurrency network.

Finding Sustainable Coins

The concerns shared by Musk and other sustainability scholars revolve around the energy- intensive nature of cryptocurrency mining. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance estimates that, at 93.92 TWh, the Bitcoin network annually consumes more electricity than the countries of Kazakhstan and the Philippines. Research has also cautioned against the substantial e-waste generated in the process of mining Bitcoin, with one estimate indicating that each transaction on the Bitcoin network generates an average e-waste footprint of 134.5g. To put that in perspective – one burns through four 60W bulbs before they generate as much e-waste as a single Bitcoin transaction.

In India, the onerous ecological effects of cryptocurrency mining were first highlighted by an inter-ministerial committee report focused on developing a framework to regulate cryptocurrencies. The Report of the Committee to propose specific actions to be taken in relation to Virtual Currencies would caution against diverting resources to mine virtual currencies in India, observing that such mining may incur unfavourable economic costs. The report would further link cryptocurrency mining to the developing regulatory consensus on the mandatory storage of certain kinds of personal data in India, noting that the coupling of crypto-mining and mandatory data storage could exacerbate energy scarcity in a “power- starved” India.

Finding Sustainable Coins

The concerns highlighted by the Report merit renewed scrutiny in light of India’s perceptive policy shift on cryptocurrencies. As ideation begins on a possible framework for ‘regulating’ cryptocurrencies, regulators must look to not only mitigate the adverse environmental impact of cryptocurrencies but also understand how decision-making surrounding sustainability rendered the market for cryptocurrencies extremely vulnerable. The presence of regulatory mechanisms to monitor cryptocurrencies for environmental impact can guard against such vulnerabilities, ensuring that influential investors like Musk may not pull out of crypto- commitments citing sustainability as a reason.

In essence, effective monitoring mechanisms can prioritize long-term sustainability for cryptocurrencies and minimize disruption caused by speculation on the same.

Designing the ideal monitoring mechanism is a secondary concern. For this, regulation may commit to adapting the environmental principles outlined in the National Guidelines on Responsible Business Conduct, 2018 (‘Guidelines’) to cryptocurrencies. The Guidelines embrace organizational openness – laying down a business responsibility reporting framework focused on resource use, resource minimization and adherence to extant standards on sustainability. Further, regulators may look at the Business Responsibility and Sustainability Report framework issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, for guidance on operationalizing the principles contained in the Guidelines.

Finding Sustainable Coins

Admittedly, the framework may be difficult to enforce on participants that escape the scrutiny of regulators, but a sustained effort towards adapting it to cryptocurrencies at the point-of-sale may illuminate pathways for assessing their environmental impact.

The primary concern remains the creation of a regulatory framework that envisages instituting mechanisms to monitor the environmental credentials of cryptocurrencies and devises strategies to communicate such information to investors. It is hoped that greater eco- transparency will nudge players into designing greener cryptocurrencies, built on sustainable transaction-validation mechanisms and environment-friendly operating practices.

The blog has been authored by KS Roshan Menon, Research Scholar, Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co.

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed are solely of the author and ETBFSI.com does not necessarily subscribe to it. ETBFSI.com shall not be responsible for any damage caused to any person/organisation directly or indirectly.



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What Robinhood’s IPO filing says about the Reddit army, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The typical soldier in the army of retail traders upending Wall Street is a 31-year old who grabs their smartphone seven times a day to check the assets in their first-ever brokerage account, which may well hold a good chunk of cryptocurrencies in addition to stocks.

Those broad strokes describing retail traders are among the nuggets found in the July 1 filing by online brokerage firm Robinhood Markets, which is aiming for an initial public offering worth over $40 billion.

In its filing, the firm includes facts about its more than 18 million customers and describes some of the potential risks of investing in the company, which increased its headcount from 289 in December, 2018 to more than 2,100 in March of this year as retail trading took off.

The detailed breakdown of Robinhood‘s user base offers a glimpse at the individual traders gathering in online forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets, whose activity has helped fuel wild rides in shares of video game retailer GameStop, movie theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings and a slew of other so-called meme stocks.

Here are a few highlights from the filing:

— As of March 31, 2021, the median age of customers on the company’s platform was 31.

— From January 1, 2015 to March 31, 2021, over half of the customers funding accounts on the platform said Robinhood was their first brokerage account.

— Customers visited the app an average of nearly seven times a day in 2020, a year that saw wild swings in markets in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

— The firm believes that close to 50% of all new retail funded accounts opened in the United States from 2016 to 2021 were new accounts created on Robinhood.

— Robinhood’s assets under custody at the end of 2021’s first quarter include roughly $65 billion in equities, $2 billion in options, $11.6 billion in cryptocurrencies and $7.6 billion in cash.

— Cryptocurrencies have been huge for the company. In the first quarter, Robinhood saw over 9.5 million customers trade about $88 billion of cryptocurrency on the platform. Crypto assets have grown 23-fold between March 31, 2020 and the end of this year’s first quarter.

— A substantial portion of the recent growth in Robinhood’s net revenue is earned from transactions attributable to Dogecoin, the company said. The price of Dogecoin, which has been touted by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, has surged by more than 10,000% in the past year, according to Coingecko.com.

“If demand for transactions in Dogecoin declines and is not replaced by new demand for other cryptocurrencies available for trading on our platform, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected,” the filing said.

— Most Robinhood customers are primarily buy-and-hold investors, the company said, echoing a refrain often heard on WallStreetBets, where users exhort each other to hold onto their favorite meme stocks in the face of eye-popping volatility.



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Bitcoin tops $40,000 after Musk says Tesla could use it again, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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LONDON/SINGAPORE: Bitcoin climbed above $40,000 on Monday, after yet another weekend of price swings following tweets from Tesla boss Elon Musk, who fended off criticism over his market influence and said Tesla sold bitcoin but may resume transactions using it.

Bitcoin has gyrated to Musk‘s views for months since Tesla announced a $1.5 billion bitcoin purchase in February and said it would take the cryptocurrency in payment. He later said the electric car maker would not accept bitcoin due to concerns over how mining the currency requires high energy use and contributes to climate change.

“When there’s confirmation of reasonable (~50%) clean energy usage by miners with positive future trend, Tesla will resume allowing Bitcoin transactions,” Musk said on Twitter on Sunday.

Bitcoin, which jumped nearly 10% on Sunday, breaking above its 20-day moving average, was up 4.3% on Monday at 40,692.27, its first foray above $40,000 in more than two weeks.

“Musk’s words caused bitcoin to surge,” said Simon Peters, market analyst at eToro.

Bitcoin was also supported Monday after billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday that bitcoin is a great way to protect his wealth over the long run and is part of his portfolio just like gold.

Bitcoin prices were also helped by software company and major bitcoin-backer MicroStrategy raising half a billion dollars to buy bitcoin, said Bobby Ong, co-founder of crypto analytics website CoinGecko.

Bitcoin is up about 40% this year but has collapsed from a record peak above $60,000 amid a regulatory crackdown in China and Musk’s apparently wavering enthusiasm for it. Tesla stock is down about 30% since the company’s bitcoin purchase.

Musk’s tweet was made in response to an article based on remarks from Magda Wierzycka, head of cybersecurity firm Syngia , who in a radio interview last week accused him of “price manipulation” and selling a “big part” of his exposure.

“This is inaccurate,” Musk said. “Tesla only sold ~10% of holdings to confirm BTC could be liquidated easily without moving market.”

Musk had tweeted in May that Tesla “will not be selling any bitcoin” and “has not sold any bitcoin” but investors are keenly awaiting Tesla’s next earnings update – due next month – for any disclosure of changes to its position.

Musk has taken issue with the vast computing power required to process bitcoin transactions and in early June posted messages appearing to lament a breakup with bitcoin.



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Beware! A bear market wave is about to hit Bitcoin, warns JPMorgan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Eric Lam and Joanna Ossinger

Bitcoin’s recent bounce has yet to dispel doubts about its vulnerability.

The cryptocurrency has jumped 10% over two days and was trading at $36,993 as of 9 a.m. in London on Thursday. While the momentum may cheer bulls, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team said backwardation in the futures market — where the spot price is above futures prices — is a reason for caution.

“We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market,” JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin’s relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break Bitcoin from a $30,000 to $40,000 range that’s been in place since a collapse from a record of almost $65,000 in April. Public criticism of the digital currency’s energy needs by tycoon Elon Musk and a Chinese regulatory crackdown are among obstacles. Bulls got a bit of a lift Wednesday after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender.

The virtual currency “needs to push into $39,460 and the top of the recent range to really attract, but we will need to see a break here for the bulls to feel we’re out of this period of vulnerability,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty, wrote in a note Thursday.

The June 9 analysis from JPMorgan looked at the 21-day rolling average of the 2nd Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices. The backwardation this showed is an “unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors” who use contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when the cryptocurrency fell 74% after a spectacular boom, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market value is 42% currently, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year, according to data from tracker CoinGecko. For some analysts, that’s in part a sign of retail-driven investor froth lifting other coins.

Bitcoin’s share may need to top 50% to make it easier to argue the current bear market is over, the JPMorgan strategists said.



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