El Salvador ‘bought the dip’ and purchased 100 extra bitcoins

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El Salvador President Nayib Bukele on Friday said his country had bought an additional 100 bitcoins after the digital currency declined in value, building on the country’s cryptocurrency stake despite vast criticism about the government’s strategy.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital currency, on Friday fell as much as 7.8 per cent to $54,377, its lowest since October 12. It was on track for its biggest one-day drop since September 20 and is now down more than 20 per cent since touching a record high of $69,000 earlier this month.

“El Salvador just bought the dip. 100 extra coins acquired with a discount. #Bitcoin,” Bukele tweeted on Friday.

As of October 28, the country had bought 1,120 bitcoins.

Also see: El Salvador sees greener cryptocurrency mining in its future

In September, El Salvador became the world’s first nation to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, a move that generated global media attention but also attracted criticism from the opposition and foreign financial institutions.

Bukele has championed the adoption of bitcoin, arguing it will help millions of Salvadorans living abroad send remittances back home. He has also said it will bring financial inclusion, investment, tourism, and development.

But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday said El Salvador should not use bitcoin as legal tender considering risks related to the cryptocurrency.

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Govt lists bill in winter session to ban all private cryptocurrency, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: The government on Tuesday listed the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill for introduction during the winter session of Parliament, which will seek to “prohibit all private cryptocurrencies” but provide for certain exceptions “to promote the underlying technology” and “its uses”.

The proposed bill — which will also put in place a framework for Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to create an official digital currency — comes amid a raging debate over whether the government should ban private cryptocash or regulate them like shares and bonds.

A very vocal lobby led by unregulated exchanges has been campaigning for their inclusion under a regulatory system, as opposed to an outright ban the government had earlier proposed.

RBI has been backing a ban on cryptocurrency, arguing it can be used for illegal purposes apart from limiting the central bank’s ability to manage inflation, foreign exchange and the overall economy.

It, however, sees no problems with the use of technology for managing logistic chains or land records but is opposed to its use as a financial instrument.

It cannot be called a currency since the sovereign only enjoys that right,” the apex bank has pointed out. The Centre, however, seems inclined to ban bitcoins, making it clear that dabbling in them carries a clear risk.

While there have been observations that a ban will be tough to enforce, or that it will only drive the entire growing trade underground, those supporting a prohibition have argued that even gambling or drug trafficking are illegal and those found violating the law face strict action.

The divergent views had prompted PM Narendra Modi to recently hold consultations and call for global cooperation on the issue. While China recently banned all cryptocurrencies, El Salvador is the sole country to permit them for official use.

Government sources said the bill has not been finalised yet and is unlikely to be introduced during the first week of the winter session that starts on Monday. But all eyes are on how the government defines the “uses” of cryptocurrency.

In case it allows it to be treated as an asset or a commodity, as a section within the government has argued, it will pave the way for their trading on exchanges. The fear is that trading would allow the instrument to be used as a store of value, although officially it will not be a medium of exchange. There are concerns that the moment trading is permitted, people may use cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins, for making part payment for purchase of property or for overseas transfer.

While the RBI had banned investments in cryptocurrencies, the Supreme Court had held the circular illegal. In the meantime, the government-appointed committee headed by SC Garg, the then economic affairs secretary, submitted its recommendations seeking a ban and the government had planned to introduce a legislation during the Budget session.

But with the session cut short, the bill “prohibiting” private cryptocurrencies could not be introduced, resulting in a fresh round of consultations.



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El Salvador to build cryptocurrency-fueled “Bitcoin City”, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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LA LIBERTAD, El Salvador – In a rock concert-like atmosphere, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that his government will build an oceanside “Bitcoin City” at the base of a volcano.

Bukele used a gathering of Bitcoin enthusiasts Saturday night to launch his latest idea, much as he used a an earlier Bitcoin conference in Miami to announce in a video message that El Salvador would be the first country to make the cryptocurrency legal tender,

A bond offering would happen in 2022 entirely in Bitcoin, Bukele said, wearing his signature backwards baseball cap. And 60 days after financing was ready, construction would begin.

The city will be built near the Conchagua volcano to take advantage of geothermal energy to power both the city and Bitcoin mining – the energy-intensive solving of complex mathematical calculations day and night to verify currency transactions.

The government is already running a pilot Bitcoin mining venture at another geothermal power plant beside the Tecapa volcano.

The oceanside Conchagua volcano sits in southeastern El Salvador on the Gulf of Fonseca.

The government will provide land and infrastructure and work to attract investors.

The only tax collected there will be the value-added tax, half of which will be used to pay the municipal bonds and the rest for municipal infrastructure and maintenance. Bukele said there would be no property, income or municipal taxes and the city would have zero carbon dioxide emissions.

The city would be built with attracting foreign investment in mind. There would be residential areas, malls, restaurants and a port, Bukele said. The president talked of digital education, technology and sustainable public transportation.

“Invest here and earn all the money you want,” Bukele told the cheering crowd in English at the closing of the Latin American Bitcoin and Blockchain Conference being held in El Salvador.

Bitcoin has been legal tender alongside the U.S. dollar since Sept. 7.

The government is backing Bitcoin with a $150 million fund. To incentivize Salvadorans to use it, the government offered $30 worth of credit to those using its digital wallet.

Critics have warned that the currency’s lack of transparency could attract increased criminal activity to the country and that the digital currency’s wild swings in value would pose a risk to those holding it.

Bitcoin was originally created to operate outside government controlled financial systems and Bukele says it will help attract foreign investment to El Salvador and make it cheaper for Salvadorans living abroad to send money home to their families.

Concern among the Salvadoran opposition and outside observers has grown this year as Bukele has moved to consolidate power.

Voters gave the highly popular president’s party control of the congress earlier this year. The new lawmakers immediately replaced the members of the constitutional chamber of the Supreme Court and the attorney general, leaving Bukele’s party firmly in control of the other branches of government.

The U.S. government in response said it would shift its aid away from government agencies to civil society organizations. This month, Bukele sent a proposal to congress that would require organizations receiving foreign funding to register as foreign agents.



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El Salvador explores bitcoin mining powered by volcanoes, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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At a geothermal power plant near El Salvador‘s Tecapa volcano, 300 computers whir inside a trailer as they make complex mathematical calculations day and night verifying transactions for the cryptocurrency bitcoin.

The pilot project has inspired a rash of volcano emojis from President Nayib Bukele, who made bitcoin legal tender in September, and promises of cheap, renewable energy for so-called bitcoin “mining.” Such operations, including ones industrial in scale, have been harshly criticized elsewhere in the world for the massive amounts of electricity they use and the resulting carbon footprint.

Bukele and others say El Salvador’s geothermal resources – generating electricity from high-pressure steam produced by the volcano’s subterranean heat – could be a solution. But the picture in the tiny Central American country is more complicated.

“We don’t spend resources that contaminate the environment, we don’t depend on oil, we don’t depend on natural gas, on any resource that isn’t renewable,” Daniel Alvarez, president of the Rio Lempa Hydroelectric Executive Commission, which oversees the plant, said during a tour Friday.

Cheap power and a supportive government are the two critical factors for attracting bitcoin mining operations, said Brandon Arvanaghi, a bitcoin mining consultant.

Two years ago, China provided about three-quarters of all the electricity used for crypto mining, with operations flocking to take advantage of its cheap hydroelectric power. But the government began restricting mining and in September declared all transactions involving bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies illegal.

That has led to a scramble to set up mining operations in other countries.

It would appear to be fortuitous for Bukele, who shocked the nation and many around the world with his announcement last summer that bitcoin would become legal tender beside the U.S. dollar in El Salvador. The president sold the plan in part as a way for Salvadorans living overseas – mostly in the U.S.- to send money home to their families more cheaply. It also made him a darling of the bitcoin world.

But the launch has been rocky. The digital wallet Salvadorans were expected to use to perform basic transactions had a glitchy rollout. Some users said they just wanted the $30 the government offered as an incentive. There continue to be concerns that the digital currency, which touts being controlled by no government, will invite criminal activity.

So far, the United States has been a big winner in attracting more bitcoin mining operations, especially the state of Texas, which has bountiful renewable energy and a de-regulated market.

Bitcoin mining in El Salvador would appear to have a supportive government in Bukele, but cheap electricity is so far just a promise.

El Salvador imports about one-fifth to one-quarter of its electricity. The rest of production is divided among hydroelectric, geothermal and plants fired by fossil fuels.

Geothermal accounts for about a quarter of the country’s energy. El Salvador has 23 volcanoes.

“When you add these renewable sources like these vast abundant areas, a ton of renewable sources and a friendly regime it can be very attractive and El Salvador may very well fit that model,” Arvanaghi said.

Right now, El Salvador’s electricity is not considered particularly cheap.

The website GlobalPetrolPrices.com, which publishes retail energy prices around the world, puts electric costs to households and businesses in El Salvador well above the global average.

Arvanaghi said that bitcoin mining incentivizes the expansion of renewable energy production by providing high demand for cheap power and that miners have shown themselves to be willing to pause a portion of their machines at times when there is less power available from the grid.

Bukele’s promise of cheap power for bitcoin mining then would have to involve a subsidy, at least until renewable capacity expanded and rates declined.

Luis Gonzalez, public policy director at the nongovernmental organization Salvadoran Ecological Unit (UNES), said if El Salvador can manage to provide cheaper, renewable power it should go to the country’s families, not cryptocurrency mining operations.

“The ideal would be that the cheapest, cleanest, most national energy would be for the people,” Gonzalez said.

He also warned that advertising geothermal as clean has caveats. It is cleaner than burning fossil fuels, he said, but comes with its own impacts. The sites where wells are dug to tap into the subterranean heat impact the local habitat. He also expressed concerns that aquifers could become contaminated at geothermal sites.

“We’re the country with the least access to water in Central America,” he said, noting that was the main reason El Salvador banned metals mining four years ago.

Many bitcoin mining operations have concentrated in cooler climates too, because beyond the electricity to power the machines more is the need to keep them cool, Gonzalez said. El Salvador has a tropical climate.

At the Berlin Geothermal plant, two hours drive east of the capital, Gustavo Cuellar, special projects adviser for the Rio Lempa Hydroelectric Executive Commission, is overseeing the mining operation. He said the specialized mining machines on the site are using 1.5 megawatts of the 102 megawatts the plant produces. El Salvador’s other geothermal plant in Ahuachapan produces another 95 megawatts.

Together the plants provide power to 1.5 million of El Salvador’s 6.5 million citizens.

Alvarez said that the project will grow over time “because we have the renewable energy resource, we have a lot of potential to continue producing energy to mine.”

__

Sherman reported from Mexico City.



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Bitcoin fever reaches Honduras with first cryptocurrency ATM, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The first cryptocurrency ATM in Honduras opened this week as bitcoin backers sought to spur demand for virtual assets after neighboring El Salvador became the first country to establish bitcoin as legal tender.

The machine, locally dubbed “la bitcoinera,” allows users to acquire bitcoin and ethereum using the local lempira currency and was installed in an office tower in the capital of Tegucigalpa by Honduran firm TGU Consulting Group.

Juan Mayen, 28, chief executive of TGU, led the effort to bring the ATM to Honduras in hopes of educating people about virtual assets through first-hand experience.

Until now, there was no automated way to buy crypto-currencies, he said.

“You had to do it peer-to-peer, look for someone who … was willing to do it, meet in person and carry X amount of cash, which is very inconvenient and dangerous given the environment in Honduras,” he said.

On Friday, one ethereum was trading at $3,237, and bitcoin; $48,140. If the service is popular, Mayen said he hoped to install more units.

To make a purchase, users have to scan official identification and input personal data such as a phone number.

Many software developers in Honduras are already paid in cryptocurrencies, Mayen said, adding that it will also be a cheaper option to send remittances.

In 2020, Hondurans living abroad – mainly the United States – sent $5.7 billion, about 20% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), in remittances.

The Congress of El Salvador approved in June a proposal by President Nayib Bukele to make the country the first in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.

Elsewhere in the region, lawmakers presented draft bills in Panama that regulate the use of bitcoin and its status as a legal tender.



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Bitcoin fever reaches Honduras with first cryptocurrency ATM, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The first cryptocurrency ATM in Honduras opened this week as bitcoin backers sought to spur demand for virtual assets after neighboring El Salvador became the first country to establish bitcoin as legal tender.

The machine, locally dubbed “la bitcoinera,” allows users to acquire bitcoin and ethereum using the local lempira currency and was installed in an office tower in the capital of Tegucigalpa by Honduran firm TGU Consulting Group.

Juan Mayen, 28, chief executive of TGU, led the effort to bring the ATM to Honduras in hopes of educating people about virtual assets through first-hand experience.

Until now, there was no automated way to buy crypto-currencies, he said.

“You had to do it peer-to-peer, look for someone who … was willing to do it, meet in person and carry X amount of cash, which is very inconvenient and dangerous given the environment in Honduras,” he said.

On Friday, one ethereum was trading at $3,237, and bitcoin; $48,140. If the service is popular, Mayen said he hoped to install more units.

To make a purchase, users have to scan official identification and input personal data such as a phone number.

Many software developers in Honduras are already paid in cryptocurrencies, Mayen said, adding that it will also be a cheaper option to send remittances.

In 2020, Hondurans living abroad – mainly the United States – sent $5.7 billion, about 20% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), in remittances.

The Congress of El Salvador approved in June a proposal by President Nayib Bukele to make the country the first in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.

Elsewhere in the region, lawmakers presented draft bills in Panama that regulate the use of bitcoin and its status as a legal tender.

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Will El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender be a turning point for cryptocurrencies?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Recently, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, throwing a googly at central bankers across the globe. So far, the US dollar was the only legal tender in that country.

Bitcoin is legal in several countries but nowhere else is it legal tender. The difference is significant.

In countries where Bitcoin is legal, it can be bought, sold or otherwise exchanged. It may even be regulated and taxed. But it is primarily looked upon as another asset class – but not as equivalent to a fiat or government/central bank-issued currency per se.

A legal tender is something which the law of the country recognises as something with which you can settle public or private debt, buy goods and services or meet any financial obligation in that country.

In general, central bankers do not like Bitcoin for exactly the same reasons its fans love it. Fans of Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies love them simply because they do not like the thought of central bankers and governments regulating their currency.

Bitcoin was immediately adopted by people who wanted to bypass the system altogether: they included those who wanted to trade in the deep web, the dark web and in general by anyone who liked the anonymity and the lack of central oversight that it promised.

Central bankers hate it because they cannot exercise any control over it and nor can they regulate transactions using it. Money can be moved across borders with no oversight by the banking regulators and bypassing the conventional financial systems.

In fact, there are a lot of reports of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies being accumulated by people who can afford them in Afghanistan.

After Bitcoins and other similar cryptocurrencies became extremely popular, governments and banking regulators have long been trying very hard to figure out how to bring them under some modicum of government control.

Some nations have taken the pragmatic approach and started treating them as a distinct asset class with proper regulations and tax on buying and selling them. Others have tried to ban them without much success. India has done neither – it is not legal but neither is it explicitly illegal to hold cryptocurrency in our country either.

Of late, multiple central bankers have toyed with the idea of killing off cryptocurrencies – or essentially rendering them worthless – by issuing their own official digital tokens. China is the first one to actually do something, though the US and India and others are also studying the ways and means.

The problem they refuse to recognise is that Bitcoins cannot be killed by digital coins or tokens issued officially by a banking regulator. The appeal of Bitcoins is that they are free from regulation of central bankers and governments and to a large extent anonymous.

Of late, the anonymity has created its own set of problems. News of hacking of cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges and stealing of cryptocurrencies have cropped up from time to time, causing major issues of trust and the crypto currency communities are trying to find solutions to these.

If there is no central oversight, there is no way to get back your stolen Bitcoins or other altcoins unless the hacker is identified or decides to return them on his or her own.

That is why many countries and regulators think that recognising bitcoins and ensuring they follow some regulations in the country is the lesser of the two evils. That is a view that many bitcoin investors are also gravitating to – some oversight and transactions via a government recognised cryptocurrency exchange is better than a more risky and unregulated exchange. But another group feels that any attempt by governments to regulate them would come with too many riders.

For many economists, especially monetary economists, Bitcoins and other altcoins are simply another financial bubble because they have no intrinsic value and their prices fluctuate massively, on a daily basis and sometimes even hourly, because of demand, supply and sentiment.

Many people ask why that is a problem, given that even stocks can fluctuate depending on sentiment. The difference is that stocks are valued based on a registered company doing some real businesses and with some oversight. They have to report their profits, losses, assets and liabilities regularly. There is, hence, at least the illusion of assets backing a stock’s current value. (Of course, as frauds and sudden bankruptcies have shown, many of the assets exist only on paper or are overvalued).

Bitcoins and altcoins often have no intrinsic value and their price depends on what anyone is willing to buy them for at a given time.

There is another class of cryptocurrencies called stable coins, which have values linked to specific commodities like gold and silver and fluctuate far less. But they are less popular for precisely that reason. If one were to invest in gold, why would one buy a cryptocurrency linked to it.

But given the fluctuations in the value of Bitcoin, why did El Salvador decide to recognise it as legal tender? One reason is that a lot of the country’s economy depends on remittances from abroad by citizens working in other countries. These remittances, when sent by conventional banking channels, pay a huge transaction fee or commission.

According to some estimates, $400 million was the transaction charges last year alone of the remittances sent via conventional money service providers like Moneygram or Western Union. With bitcoins, transfer charges would be minuscule. Of course, the risk of fluctuations remain – the money transmitted as Bitcoins can become far more but also far less if the value drops overnight.

Meanwhile, the initial days of El Salvador and its Bitcoin experiment has been rocky and full of teething troubles. These may settle down over time. Central bankers across the world are watching the country’s experiment keenly to see how it plays out. It may give ideas on how to actually regulate crypto currencies better – but that might also lead to them losing some of their current appeal.

(For the latest crypto news, investment tips and real-time price updates, follow our Cryptocurrency page.)



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President, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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SAN SALVADOR: Facing resistance from the World Bank, IMF and opposition parties to his move to make bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has promised $30 for each citizen who adopts the cryptocurrency.

Initiated by Bukele, El Salvador’s parliament approved a law this month to allow the crypto money to be accepted as tender for all goods and services in the small Central American nation, along with the US dollar, its national currency.

The crypto money will become legal tender in September.

Bukele said that in a bid to boost its wide adoption, each citizen who opens an electronic bitcoin “wallet” named Chivo will have the equivalent of $30 uploaded to their account.

“It will be a gift,” Bukele told national television late Thursday. “Just download and register and you will receive the bitcoin equivalent of $30 to use.”

Bukele did not specify where the money would come from.

He said more than 50,000 people in the country of 6.5 million were already using bitcoin.

On Twitter, the president also accused the opposition of trying to “sow fear” among Salvadorans about the bitcoin law.

He gave an assurance that use of the cryptocurrency will be optional, and wages and pensions in the country will continue to be paid in US dollars.

Bukele has touted the move as a way to make it cheaper and easier for Salvadorans abroad — some 1.5 million, mainly in the United States — to send money back home in the form of remittances, which represent almost a quarter of the country’s GDP.

According to World Bank data, El Salvador received more than $5.9 billion in 2020 from nationals living abroad.

But opposition parties have said the plan is “unworkable” and experts and regulators have highlighted concerns about the currency’s notorious volatility and the lack of protections for its users.

On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency fell beneath $30,000 for the first time in five months. At its highest, bitcoin was worth more than $63,000 in April.

Last week, the World Bank rejected a request from El Salvador for assistance in its bid to adopt bitcoin as a currency, citing “environmental and transparency shortcomings”.

The IMF has also flagged concerns, with spokesman Gerry Rice telling reporters El Salvador’s move “raises a number of macroeconomic, financial and legal issues that require careful analysis.”

The Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) has said it will provide technical assistance for El Salvador to regulate the use of bitcoin.

On Thursday, the first bitcoin teller machine was opened in the capital San Salvador, where people can deposit dollars in cash into their bitcoin wallet.

The country’s only other bitcoin machine is in the coastal town of El Zonte, where hundreds of businesses and individuals use the cryptocurrency for everything from paying utilities bills to haircuts or buying a can of soda.



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World Bank rejects El Salvador request for help on Bitcoin implementation, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The World Bank said on Wednesday it could not assist El Salvador‘s bitcoin implementation given environmental and transparency drawbacks.

“We are committed to helping El Salvador in numerous ways including for currency transparency and regulatory processes,” said a World Bank spokesperson via email.

“While the government did approach us for assistance on bitcoin, this is not something the World Bank can support given the environmental and transparency shortcomings.”

Earlier on Wednesday, Salvadoran Finance Minister Alejandro Zelaya said the Central America country had sought technical assistance from the Bank as it seeks to use bitcoin as a parallel legal tender alongside the U.S. dollar.

El Salvador’s government did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters regarding the World Bank’s decision.

The minister also said ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund had been successful, although the IMF said last week it saw “macroeconomic, financial and legal issues” with the country’s adoption of bitcoin.

Zelaya said on Wednesday the IMF was “not against” the bitcoin implementation. The IMF did not respond to a request for comment.

Investors have recently demanded higher premiums to hold Salvadoran debt, on growing concerns over the completion of the IMF deal, key to patching budget gaps through 2023.

On Wednesday, bonds sold off across the curve, with the 2032 issue down more than 2 cents at 96.25 cents on the dollar. The spread of Salvadoran debt to U.S. Treasuries dipped to 705 basis points after hitting on Tuesday a four-month high of 725 bps.

“There is no fast track for a solution on an IMF program and even uncertainty on whether the bitcoin proposal is compatible with diplomatic U.S. (or) multilateral relations,” said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed-income strategy at Amherst Pierpont Securities in New York.

El Salvador this month became the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, with President Nayib Bukele touting the cryptocurrency’s potential as a remittance currency for Salvadorans overseas.

This month, Bukele also pulled out of an anticorruption accord with the Organization of American States, which dismayed the U.S. government, as Washington looks to stem corruption in Central America as part of its immigration policy.

“The recognition of a ‘Bukele’ risk premium has probably done some permanent damage to investor sentiment,” Morden said in her client note.

The market may be focusing too much on the news headlines, however, and not enough on the possibility of a deal with the IMF, said Shamaila Khan, head of EM debt strategies at AllianceBernstein in New York.

“It is important for El Salvador to get the IMF program done. If it was lost on them, they wouldn’t have the conversations,” she said.

“Our view is too much risk is priced in at these levels.”



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Beware! A bear market wave is about to hit Bitcoin, warns JPMorgan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Eric Lam and Joanna Ossinger

Bitcoin’s recent bounce has yet to dispel doubts about its vulnerability.

The cryptocurrency has jumped 10% over two days and was trading at $36,993 as of 9 a.m. in London on Thursday. While the momentum may cheer bulls, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team said backwardation in the futures market — where the spot price is above futures prices — is a reason for caution.

“We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market,” JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin’s relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break Bitcoin from a $30,000 to $40,000 range that’s been in place since a collapse from a record of almost $65,000 in April. Public criticism of the digital currency’s energy needs by tycoon Elon Musk and a Chinese regulatory crackdown are among obstacles. Bulls got a bit of a lift Wednesday after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender.

The virtual currency “needs to push into $39,460 and the top of the recent range to really attract, but we will need to see a break here for the bulls to feel we’re out of this period of vulnerability,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty, wrote in a note Thursday.

The June 9 analysis from JPMorgan looked at the 21-day rolling average of the 2nd Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices. The backwardation this showed is an “unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors” who use contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when the cryptocurrency fell 74% after a spectacular boom, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market value is 42% currently, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year, according to data from tracker CoinGecko. For some analysts, that’s in part a sign of retail-driven investor froth lifting other coins.

Bitcoin’s share may need to top 50% to make it easier to argue the current bear market is over, the JPMorgan strategists said.



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