Economic recovery is underway but credit growth remains tepid: Deepak Parekh

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HDFC Ltd Chairman Deepak Parekh on Tuesday expressed confidence that the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are strong and recovery is underway.

“Owing to the second wave, the Indian economy is likely to mirror a similar trend seen in 2020-21, where the first half of the financial year is weaker and the second half is significantly stronger,” Parekh said at the annual general meeting of HDFC Ltd.

However, while parameters such as foreign exchange reserves and capital markets are strong, he underlined that key laggard remains overall credit growth which continues to remain tepid.

Parekh also said the inherent demand for home loans continues to be strong and even in commercial real estate, most companies have not given up on their office space in the pandemic.

He also noted that there are segments of real estate with immense potential to grow.

“With the e-commerce boom, demand for real estate is coming from warehousing and fulfilment centres,” he said, adding that with the build-up of digital infrastructure, demand for data centres have increased.

The demand for housing has also continued to be strong after the easing of the national lockdown and was for both affordable housing and high-end properties.

“Asset quality has been challenging for non-individual loans at a systemic level. the corporation has always been prudent in identifying loans where there could be stress and has adequately provided for such loans,” Parekh further said.

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About 96% of Rs 2.45 lakh crore recovered under IBC resolutions came from top 100 accounts, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Amid the rising furore over huge haircuts taken by lenders in high-value resolutions under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, the government has said that financial creditors, including banks, realised Rs 2.45 lakh crore from approved resolution plans for 394 corporate insolvency resolution cases under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code as on June 30.

Of which Rs 2.37 lakh crore came through approved resolution plans of top 100 CIRPs, which is over 36 per cent of the admitted claims.

About 4,540 cases were admitted for the corporate insolvency resolution process under IBC until June 30, 2021.

About 240 companies liquidated till December 2020 had outstanding claims of Rs 33,086 crore, while their assets were valued at Rs 1,099 crore.
Overall, banks recovered Rs 14.18 lakh crore during the last three fiscals, raising the percentage of recovery to their gross NPA from 13.1 per cent in FY18 to 15.1 per cent in FY19. However, the recovery ratio has dropped 12.8 per cent in FY21 from 15.8 per cent in FY20 in the backdrop of the pandemic.

Recovery rate

The recovery rate of IBC has fallen to 39.3% as of March 2021 from 46% as of March 2020. Of the total outstanding amount of Rs 1.32 lakh crore, only around Rs 25,944 crore was recovered in fiscal 2021, or a rate of 19.7%.

There has been a delay in the liquidation of companies. As of December 2020, around 69% of the liquidations were going on for more than one year, while in the case of 26% of companies the process was on for more than two years.

Economic downturn

With huge capacity unutilised in the economy, companies are not looking to add more capacity, which is impacting the sale process at IBC. Barring sectors like steel where the product cycle has seen a turnaround, assets in other sectors such as textiles are not seeing much interest. While steel assets such as Essar Steel and Bhushan Steel were snapped up, those such as Alok Textiles were sold for much less.

The pandemic has increased operational challenges for the various parties involved in a CIRP, which resulted in limited cases yielding a resolution plan. The suspension of new proceedings under the IBC for the entire FY21 resulted in a sharp slowdown in the resolution process.

The slow judicial process in India allows the resolution processes to drag on, this was the same reason for slow recovery under SICA or RBBD.

Litigations by promoters not wanting to let the company out of their hands is also delaying the IBC process.

Lenders wanting to avoid delay in the recovery process and erosion of value are striking settlement deals with promoters, which defeats the purpose of the legislation.

Fiscal 2022 hopes

Financial creditors could realise about Rs 55,000 crore to Rs 60,000 crore in FY2022 through successful resolution plans from the IBC, estimates rating agency Icra. The higher realisation by the financial creditors would depend on the successful resolution of 8-9 big-ticket accounts, with more than 20% of estimated realisation for the year could be from these alone.



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Gold loan defaults within permissible limits, says Thomas John Muthoot

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Gold auction notices by private lenders in regional dailies spread across more than one full page are becoming regular which, to the uninitiated, may point to the pandemic-induced financial stress among not just the economically weak sections but also the salaried class.

Leading NBFC Muthoot Fincorp recently ran a multi-page auction notice listing about 24,000 mortgage items for auctioning this July across its various branches since customers failed to pay up in time.

Statutory advertisements

But the lender would not attach significance to the advertisement and maintained that the “default cases continue to remain within acceptable limits”.

This is a statutory advertisement, he told BusinessLine. The actual auctions amount to just less than one per cent and is not a matter of concern since 99 per cent of customers redeem or renew their loans.

“We have to take these steps; otherwise, we would be breaching the NPA norms of the Reserve Bank which will not be seen good in the eyes of rating agencies, banks and the RBI as well.”

Extra time to pay up

On special request, the NBFC grants customers extra time to redeem their gold. “We would in fact want customers to save their gold. This is important for us, too. Because of Covid, we have a special scheme for customers to renew their loan at 11.99 per cent. Lot of these steps are being taken thoughtfully.”

In fact, John Muthoot noted that the gold loans portfolio witnessed healthy growth during FY 2020-21. Coupled with rescheduling of earlier auctions due to lockdowns, this had resulted in a higher number of loans going into auction.

Overall, this is a small percentage compared to the total disbursements of ₹39,500 crore during the period, he said. But John Muthoot did agree that the Covid-19 second wave and resultant lockdown did disrupt economic activities and compromised the financial position of customers.

Element of uncertainty

“But if we compare it with the first wave in March 2020, the element of uncertainty is evident. The community demonstrated resilience and preparedness to face the situation. The lockdown has been relaxed in most states. Normalcy will enable the common man to return to work and resume activities”.

According to him, gold loans continue to witness a healthy demand. “The common man is our customer and his financial needs continue to be our focal point. We are in constant touch with customers and our product research capabilities enable us to understand their needs. The demand for fresh loans is picking up post-relaxations in lockdown,” he added.

On business outlook for the next few quarters, Muthoot said: “We remain bullish on the growth story of Indian economy. The Centre as well as the Central bank has reiterated the commitment by announcing packages or capital investments to propel the growth. As businesses reopen and activities restart, we are sure that the economy will rebound. We expect to grow by 12-15 per cent as higher demand unfolds”.

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Pressure on risk currencies subside, US inflation in focus

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Risk currencies hovered above their recent lows against the dollar and the yen on Monday, as fears about slowdown in the global economic recovery appeared to have subsided for now.

The outlook for US inflation and the speed of the Federal Reserve‘s future policy tightening are back in focus ahead of Tuesday’s consumer price data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony from Wednesday.

“If we see strong data, the Fed could bring forward their projection for their first rate hike further from their current forecast of 2023. That would also mean they have to finish tapering earlier,” said Shinichiro Kadota, senior FX strategist at Barclays.

The euro traded at $1.1873, edging back from its three-month low of $1.17815 set on Wednesday while against the yen the common currency stood at ¥130.87, off Thursday’s 2-1/2-month low of ¥129.63.

Sterling also ticked up to $1.3900, while the Australian dollar bounced back to $0.7487 from Friday’s seven-month low of $0.7410.

ALSO READ Rupee slides toward year’s low as India’s trade deficit widens

Risk currencies slipped earlier last week as investors curtailed their bets on them, in part as economic data from many countries fell short of the market’s expectations.

Concerns about the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus also added to the cautious mood although few investors thought the economic recovery would be derailed.

Chinese eonomy

Selling in risk currencies subsided by Friday, however, and sentiment was bolstered further after China cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio across the board, to underpin its economic recovery that is starting to lose momentum.

On Monday, the Chinese yuan was flat at 6.4785 per dollar, off Friday’s 2-1/2-month low of 6.5005.

A recovery in risk sentiment hampered the safe-haven yen on Monday. The Japanese currency stood at 110.17 yen per dollar, off Thursday’s one-month high of 109.535.

With the data calendar on Monday relatively bare, many investors are looking to Tuesday’s US consumer price data for June.

Economists polled by Reuters expect core CPI to have risen 0.4 per cent from May and 4 per cent from a year earlier after two straight months of sharp gains in prices.

Any signs that inflation could be more persistent than previously thought could fan expectations the Fed may exit from current stimulus earlier, supporting the dollar against other major currencies.

Conversely, more benign data could lead investors to think the US central bank can afford to maintain an easy policy framework for longer, encouraging more bets on risk assets,including risk-sensitive currencies.

Cryptocurrencies were little moved, with bitcoin at $34,267and ether at $2,137.

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Amid worries over demand revival, Axis Bank sees 10 times growth in online shopping fest

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Even as policy makers grapple with ways to revive demand in the pandemic-hit economy, an online sale fest launched by Axis Bank offering 15 per cent discounts is witnessing a 10-times surge in daily volumes, a senior official has said.

The bank is giving its debit and credit card holders a flat 15 per cent cashback on partner e-commerce portals like Flipkart and Amazon as part of the ten-day ‘Grab Deals Fest’ which is on till July 4.

“We are witnessing a 10x jump in overall spends by gross merchandise value (GMV) if I were to compare it with daily average in the month prior to launch and almost similar increase in the number of customers who are availing the offer,” its president and head of digital business and transformation, Sameer Shetty, told PTI.

 

It can be noted that the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has hit demand across the economy, with many analysts saying that private consumption has fallen in such a way that even staples have been hit. Even as the lockdown measures get eased, demand will take time to revive as income generation needs to come back first.

Usually, a lot of the e-commerce sales activity happens around the festive season towards the end of the year. There are reports saying the e-commerce players are expecting a subdued activity this year.

Shetty said the bank is witnessing a surge in ordering from urban areas where e-commerce ordering is active but stressed that the ordering is across income segments.

The products ordered can largely be called discretionary items, Shetty said, hinting that the bank’s experience cannot be exactly compared with the macro picture because of a slew of factors like a small set of people in the economy it serves and their background.

The bank launched the offer because it thought that the second wave is now receding and people are coming out of stressful times. The lender’s main focus is making as many customers avail of the offer rather than looking at the GMV, he said, adding that such schemes aim to deepen the connection with customers.

The discounts are shared between the bank and the e-commerce major, Shetty said, maintaining that the bank does not want to do big bang shopping festivals and will continue with such deals regularly.

The response to the current offer is “far beyond” expectations, Shetty said, exuding confidence that by the time the offer ends, the bank would have done significantly better than what it aimed for initially.

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SBI Chairman, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: Although the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic again brought businesses and economic activities to a standstill, Chairman of the State Bank of India (SBI), Dinesh Kumar Khara has expressed hope that the country’s economy would recover in the ongoing financial year.

The Chairman noted that the global economy contracted by 3.3 per cent in 2020 with the pandemic causing significant loss of lives and livelihood.

The GDP in India contracted by 7.3 per cent in FY2021 and the country experienced a second wave of infections with cases rising rapidly since March 2021, he said while addressing the 66th Annual General Meeting of the bank.

He, however, said that policy measures and the coordinated efforts of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Centre were directed towards enabling growth on a more durable basis during these difficult times.

“Notwithstanding the second wave of Covid-19, Indian economy, through its resilience, is poised for a recovery in FY2022,” the SBI chief told the shareholders of the bank.

Speaking on the performance of the bank in FY21, he said that although the last fiscal was an exceptionally challenging year for the entire world, the state-run bank was able to function against all odds with minimal disruption for the customers.

“The business continuity plans that were chalked out have worked well for the Bank and this is reflected in various parameters of the Bank’s performance in FY 2021.”

Notably the bank has achieved high level of digitization with share of Alternate Channels in total transactions increasing to 93 per cent in FY2021, thereby converting a challenging situation into an opportunity, the Chairman said.

He said that in the current financial year, SBI will continue to accelerate its digital agenda, adding that the scope and reach of YONO will be expanded further.

“With the rollout of pre-package insolvency for resolution, resumption of courts and formation of National Asset Reconstruction Company, efforts will be in full force to keep the momentum in stressed asset recovery in the current financial year.”

The bank is comfortably placed in terms of growth capital. Opportunities for lending in promising sectors will be explored to diversify the portfolio and contain risk.

“In conclusion, the bank adjusted to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and is better positioned to tackle any subsequent wave. I am cautiously optimistic that the performance trajectory of FY2021 will continue in FY2022 as well.”



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Public sector banks support for Covid-19 health infra gathers pace

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Public sector banks in the country appear to be supporting the government’s efforts to boost Covid-19 related healthcare infrastructure in the country by actively lending to the healthcare and associated segments that are in need of liquidity.

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a term liquidity facility of ₹50,000 crore for Covid-related healthcare infrastructure and services in the country. This was done for fresh lending support to a wide range of entities in the healthcare space.

Fresh lending provided under this facility will be classified as ‘Priority Sector Lending’ till the repayment or maturity of these loans. The RBI has also allowed on-lending to other financial entities that are regulated by the Central bank. Further, banks are eligible to park surplus liquidity equivalent to the loan amount in the reverse repo window at a rate that is 40 bps higher than the prevailing reverse repo rate.

After the RBI announcement, public sector banks are reported to be enthusiastically extending credit to healthcare sector players and entities. A couple of banks have already extended more than ₹500 crore worth of loans each under the Covid loan book.

‘Identifying customers’

Padmaja Chunduru, Managing Director & CEO of Indian Bank, said the bank had already identified many of its own customers to lend. She said the bank had fixed a target of ₹4,000 crore for its Covid loan book, while it had sanctioned more than ₹600 crore till a couple of weeks ago under this portfolio. “There is good traction and a lot of enthusiasm to do this business,” she said.

State Bank of India has indicated that it could create a Covid loan book to the tune of about ₹10,000 crore. The bank is keen on supporting the hospitals and nursing homes in augmentation of their oxygen facilities and other requirements.

LV Prabhakar, Managing Director & CEO, Canara Bank, had indicated that the Bank had done a lot of homework as far as medical services financing is concerned, under this Covid loan book. It had sanctioned more than ₹1,200 crore worth of loans under this medical loan book till a few weeks ago and said it could comfortably sanction and disburse about ₹4,000 crore to ₹4,500 crore.

G Rajkiran Rai, Managing Director & CEO, Union Bank of India, said the bank is very positive about building a good Covid-19 loan book. It has products for this category and the branches are already canvassing and reaching out to potential borrowers.

While the pandemic has created a lot of challenges across sectors, it has also thrown up some new opportunities. Banking sector is also expected to be one of the beneficiaries.

With a greater focus by Central and State governments, the healthcare segment offers potential opportunities for the banks to build a good portfolio over the short and medium terms at a time many other segments are grappling with slowdown.

Several private sector lenders, both old and new, are also actively looking at lending opportunities in the healthcare infra space.

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YES Bank receives board approval to raise ₹10,000 crore through debt securities

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Private sector lender Yes Bank has received approval from its board of directors to raise ₹10,000 crore through debt securities.

“The board of directors of the bank, in its meeting held on June 10, 2021, have considered and approved seeking shareholders’ approval for borrowing or raising funds in Indian or foreign currency up to an amount of ₹10,000 crore by issue of debt securities including but not limited to non-convertible debentures, bonds, Medium Term Note (MTN),” it said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.

The bank’s capital adequacy ratio was 17.5 per cent as on March 31, 2021, while its CET1 ratio was 17.5 per cent.

Prashant Kumar, Managing Director and CEO, Yes Bank had told BusinessLine that the lender may consider fund raising if there is a lot of improvement in the economy, and credit growth takes place.

“All approvals are in place. Depending on the situation, we will take a call. We had taken an overarching approval of ₹10,000 crore but the requirement will not be so much,” he had said after the fourth quarter results of the bank.

Shifting its registered office

Meanwhile, the board also approved a proposal to move the bank’s registered office to Santacruz (East), Mumbai from ONE International Centre, Elphinstone (W), Mumbai. “This is with effect from June 14,” it said in a separate filing.

Significantly, its new office is the old headquarters of Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. The erstwhile Reliance Centre is spread over a 21,432.28 square metre plot.

Reliance Infrastructure Limited had sold off the property to Yes Bank for ₹1,200 crore in April this year. “Entire proceeds from sale of Reliance Centre, Santacruz is utilised only to repay the debt of YES Bank,” Reliance Infra had said in a statement.

Last year, Yes Bank had said that it was taking possession of the properties under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act, and comes for non-payment of loans amounting to ₹2,892 crore.

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We are well prepared compared to the first wave: South Indian Bank CEO

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The Thrissur-based South Indian Bank is looking at a credit growth of about 10 per cent in FY22, assuming the economy revives in the second half of the current fiscal. We have laid down plans for the growth of about 18-20 per cent in the coming years, says Murali Ramakrishnan, Managing Director and CEO. We are continuously monitoring the impact of Covid and recovery of the economy and will keep on calibrating our growth plans accordingly, he adds. Excerpts:

What are the plans for the current fiscal year?

It is the decision of the bank to rejig the existing portfolio, with the focus to diversify the risk both in assets and liabilities. We are replacing the bulk deposit with retail deposit and the lumpy corporate exposures with diversified retail exposures.

The bank has been following a branch structure where asset and liability business were managed by branches. To facilitate this, we had a closer look at the structure of the bank. Post our assessment, a dedicated vertical asset structure was formed for all retail assets in businesses, in which the branches would act as one more channel for sourcing new leads from the existing customers and walk-in potential customers.

Similarly, MSME and the corporate banking vertical has been formed with a dedicated sales structure across the country.

I am happy to share that the new vertical structure is in place with dedicated teams. Wherever we felt that the internal talents are not available, especially in the retail asset vertical, we have recruited a few experts laterally to drive those businesses.

Apart from this, we have set up a separate data science division tohelp us do analytics in the area of assets, liability, collection. We have also set up separate operations divisions to take care of back-end fulfillment of asset and liabilities transactions.

What would be the impact of Covid-19 on the business?

Compared to the first wave we are well prepared, and the government has also not resorted to the complete lockdown. Also, we now have vaccines. We are closely assessing the impact of the second wave on our borrowers and wherever we feel there is a genuine need, we are extending full support with restructuring as per regulation.

We had extended moratorium benefits to all borrowers, in line with other banks. We were witnessing improvement in business activities till March, which was impacted by the second wave.

What has been its impact on NRI remittances?

Owing to the pandemic, most people, including NRIs, keep a buffer in their bank accounts for emergencies. Further, there are several restrictions placed in many countries, which have resulted in increased remittances for meeting the financial needs back at home.

South Indian Bank posts net profit of nearly ₹7 crore in Q4

The rupee had appreciated against the dollar in FY21, which has led to an increase in remittances. Overall, we experience moderate growth in remittances during FY21.

Can you specify your plans in raising equity capital?

As part of the Vision 2024 strategy, the bank has worked out the equity capital requirement, based on the business projections for the next three years. The recent equity capital raising of ₹240 crore through marquee domestic institutional investors was in line with our stated strategy.

The envisaged equity capital will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and build a buffer against the pandemic. We intend to raise the balance tranche of equity capital of ₹510 crore by December 2021.

The bank’s share price is low, which is not giving much gain to investors. Will they reflect deeper troubles?

We are completely cognizant of the pain our existing loyal investors have suffered over the past few years in terms of subdued share price performance. However, with key initiatives by new management, the market has appreciated the efforts, which are reflected in the share price performance of the bank in the last six months.

South Indian Bank mulls multi-pronged approach to return to profitability

We are happy to say that even after fresh equity capital, our overall market capitalisation has improved without an impact of revised valuation multiple. Further, given the revised book value of ₹27.7 per share against the market price of about ₹10, we believe there is inherent value in the stock and it deserves timely appreciation.

How are you preparing to tackle the Covid-19 virus? Are your employees fully vaccinated?

With the outbreak of the pandemic, the bank had, from the beginning of the calendar year 2020, initiated several proactive measures to safeguard the safety and security of employees. Through periodic instructions and continuous monitoring, it was ensured that all offices of the bank funtion strictly following Covid protocols.

The bank has initiated a few new employee benefits such as medical insurance for treatment of Covid and life insurance in the unfortunate event of the death of an employee. Further, the bank will be reimbursing the vaccination cost for all employees and their dependent family members.

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RBI policy will help revive growth amidst second wave of Covid, say Bankers

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The status quo on rates and the accommodative stance of the Reserve Bank of India will help revive growth amidst the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, bankers said.

“The RBI approach to continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis is quite encouraging. Given the challenging situation, the status quo on signal rates is on the expected line,” said Raj Kiran Rai, Chairman, Indian Banks’ Association and Managing Director and CEO, Union Bank of India.

Dinesh Khara, Chairman, State Bank of India, said the coordinated and active efforts of the RBI and government will support growth on a more durable basis during these difficult times

“The policy announcements of the RBI are clearly focused on extending liquidity support to stressed sectors by a more equitable distribution. The growth and inflation numbers have been revised looking at the current uncertain environment. The policy announcements are unequivocal in supporting growth through liquidity and market interventions through Regional Rural Banks and also by fast tracking resolution of stressed MSME sector,” he said.

“The decision of keeping the repo rate unchanged along with maintenance of accommodative stance is on expected lines and necessary to mitigate the growth uncertainty and inflation concerns,” said SS Mallikarjuna Rao, Managing Director and CEO, Punjab National Bank.

Zarin Daruwala, Cluster CEO, India and South Asia markets (Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka), Standard Chartered Bank, said, RBI’s reiteration of its accommodative stance till economic growth recovers, should help ease financial conditions and cap interest rates.

“RBI continued its focus on targeted credit delivery to sectors in need of liquidity by augmenting the special liquidity window to SIDBI for on-lending to MSMEs and by providing Banks with subsidised on-tap liquidity for on-lending to COVID intensive sectors,” she further noted.

Economists said a further downward revision in the RBI’s growth projection of 9.5 per cent for 2021-22 is possible while inflation may be higher than the estimated 5.1 per cent.

“The second wave of the pandemic, apart from immediate loss of economic activity, will likely also result in medium-term headwinds in recovery in business and consumer confidence. While the RBI has lowered their 2021-22 growth forecasts today by 1 percentage point, one feels further material downside to the same remains a possibility,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist and Head – Research, Bandhan Bank.

“We think a critical mass of the population will be vaccinated by December, and the rise in activity and demand will give producers the confidence to pass on higher input costs to consumers, putting upward pressure on core inflation,” said a note by HSBC Global Research.

However, as long as CPI inflation remains under 6%, we are not expecting a repo rate hike in the foreseeable future, or for as long as private investment remains subdued, it further said.

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