Forex reserves cross $600 billion for first time on foreign flows, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The country’s forex reserves crossed the $600-billion mark for the first time on the back of continued foreign investment flow into the capital markets. According to the RBI, forex reserves increased by $6.8 billion in the week ended June 4 to $605 billion.

The current level of forex reserves is enough to cover nearly 16 months of imports. According to RBI governor Shaktikanta Das, the central bank has enough ammunition to meet challenges arising out of “global spillovers”, a reference to any sudden policy changes in the US or geopolitical shifts that could lead to funds exiting India.

India is now less than $200 million behind Russia, which has an almost identical level of reserves. The pile-up of foreign exchange reserves is an outcome of the RBI’s strategy of buying dollars when there is a sudden spurt of inflows, which causes volatility in the forex markets.

In FY20, the RBI added over $100 billion to the reserves. It has also sold dollars when the rupee came under pressure. In February and March, the central bank had depleted its stockpile by almost $10 billion by selling dollars.
Foreign fund buying of shares and debt in India also added to the reserves. According to the data from CDSL, in FY21, net inflows of about $37 billion came in through these routes and while another $400 million net flows were added to it.

According to a report by Brickworks Ratings, the exchange rate volatility demands more forex interventions by the RBI. Hence, the accumulation of forex reserves helps the RBI to maintain the exchange rate at a comfortable level.

The report points out that doubts over India’s economic recovery led to significant capital outflows in April and May. The RBI’s purchase of dollars also has a corollary impact on rupee liquidity. Every $1 billion that the RBI purchases results in around Rs 7,300 crore of rupee funds being released.



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China banks are flush with dollars, and that’s a worry

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A mountain of dollars on deposit in China has grown so large that banks are struggling to loan the currency and traders say it poses a risk to official efforts to control a fast-rising yuan.

Investment flows

Boosted by surging export receipts and investment flows, the value of foreign cash deposits in China’s banks leapt above $1trillion for the first time in April, official data show.

A previous jump, late in 2017, preceded heavy dollar selling, which turbo-charged a steep yuan rally in early 2018.

Market participants say the size of the even bigger hoard this time raises that risk, and leaves policymakers’ efforts to restrain the yuan vulnerable to the whims of the exporters and foreign investors who own the cash.

“This positioning in particular, in our view, is susceptible to a capitulation if the broad dollar downtrend were to continue,” said UBS’ Asia currency strategist Rohit Arora, especially if the yuan gains past 6.25 or 6.2 per dollar. “We think a break of these levels … has the ability to affect market psyche,” he said, since they represent, roughly,the yuan’s 2018 peak and its top before a devaluation in 2015, and trigger selling from local corporations in particular.

The heavily managed yuan is at three-year highs, havingr allied through major resistance at 6.4 per dollar, and it clocked its best month since November in May.

Also read: Govt blocks China’s bid to enter Indian ports sector

Concerned this rapid rise could unleash huge conversion of the deposits into yuan, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday that from mid-June, banks must set aside more reserves against them to discourage further accumulation.

State restraint

The central bank’s stance marked a shift towards confronting a trend that gathered steam while the bank had, publicly at least, kept to the sidelines.

Since 2017, the PBOC has largely left the yuan to marketforces, keeping its currency reserves just above the $3-trillion mark, while behind the scenes the state-bank andprivate sectors stepped in.

Over the 16 months to April, dollar deposits rose by $242.2 billion, PBOC data show, a rise equal to about 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product and bigger than the much-vaunted inflows into China’s bond market, which totalled about $220 billion for the period.

Even as the country’s trade surplus ballooned during the pandemic and the banking system converted $254 billion into yuan for clients, the People’s Bank of China drained just $90.2 billion from the financial system over those months.

“The private sector has overtaken the central bank to absorb excess US dollar liquidity generated by the corporates and foreign investment inflows,” said HSBC’s global FX strategists, led by Paul Mackel, in a note published on Monday.

That could also reflect the private sector’s view that theyuan is near a peak, or that it is preparing for future paymentssuch as dividends and overseas investment, they added.

Current account surplus

Raw economics can explain the accumulation: China is running the world’s largest current account surplus, and government data show about half the dollar deposits are held by local companies that have boomed with demand for their exports.

The same outperformance has attracted global capital, which has poured into a stockmarket riding on the pandemic recovery and credit markets paying better yields than other big economies because policy settings have begun to tighten.

Little guarantee

Yet these factors provide little guarantee of the cashpile’s longevity, especially as they meet with a fearsome shif tin the dollar/yuan exchange rate, which has fallen 11 per cent in a year.

To be sure, plenty of currency traders think that makes sustained further dollar drops unlikely.

UBS’ Arora and HSBC’s Mackel both reckon a drop to 6.25 per dollar is possible, but that a recovery follows – to around current levels of 6.38 by year’s end for Arora and for Mackel to around 6.60 by end 2021.

Most also reckon the central bank will not tolerate further gains and cite jaw boning from officials to cool the rally and the move to tamp down on dollar liquidity, by raising banks’ reserves ratio, as evidence of its resolve.

Onshore banking sources said that demand for new dollarloans was dire, even at rock-bottom rates – and data shows thevalue of deposits overhauling loans in December.

“How this has changed over the past few years has been quite phenomenal,” said Patrick Law, head of north Asia local markets and Asia non-deliverable forwards at Bank of America in Hong Kong.

“Last year was the first in over a decade or more, that there were more foreign currency deposits than foreign currency loans and that imbalance has grown in 2021,” he said.

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China banks are flush with dollars, and that’s a worry

[ad_1]

Read More/Less


A mountain of dollars on deposit in China has grown so large that banks are struggling to loan the currency and traders say it poses a risk to official efforts to control a fast-rising yuan.

Investment flows

Boosted by surging export receipts and investment flows, the value of foreign cash deposits in China’s banks leapt above $1trillion for the first time in April, official data show.

A previous jump, late in 2017, preceded heavy dollar selling, which turbo-charged a steep yuan rally in early 2018.

Market participants say the size of the even bigger hoard this time raises that risk, and leaves policymakers’ efforts to restrain the yuan vulnerable to the whims of the exporters and foreign investors who own the cash.

“This positioning in particular, in our view, is susceptible to a capitulation if the broad dollar downtrend were to continue,” said UBS’ Asia currency strategist Rohit Arora, especially if the yuan gains past 6.25 or 6.2 per dollar. “We think a break of these levels … has the ability to affect market psyche,” he said, since they represent, roughly,the yuan’s 2018 peak and its top before a devaluation in 2015, and trigger selling from local corporations in particular.

Also read: Govt blocks China’s bid to enter Indian ports sector

The heavily managed yuan is at three-year highs, having rallied through major resistance at 6.4 per dollar, and it clocked its best month since November in May.

Concerned this rapid rise could unleash huge conversion of the deposits into yuan, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday that from mid-June, banks must set aside more reserves against them to discourage further accumulation.

State restraint

The central bank’s stance marked a shift towards confronting a trend that gathered steam while the bank had, publicly at least, kept to the sidelines.

Since 2017, the PBOC has largely left the yuan to market forces, keeping its currency reserves just above the $3-trillion mark, while behind the scenes the state-bank and private sectors stepped in.

Over the 16 months to April, dollar deposits rose by $242.2 billion, PBOC data show, a rise equal to about 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product and bigger than the much-vaunted inflows into China’s bond market, which totalled about $220 billion for the period.

Even as the country’s trade surplus ballooned during the pandemic and the banking system converted $254 billion into yuan for clients, the People’s Bank of China drained just $90.2 billion from the financial system over those months.

“The private sector has overtaken the central bank to absorb excess US dollar liquidity generated by the corporates and foreign investment inflows,” said HSBC’s global FX strategists, led by Paul Mackel, in a note published on Monday.

That could also reflect the private sector’s view that the yuan is near a peak, or that it is preparing for future payments such as dividends and overseas investment, they added.

Current account surplus

Raw economics can explain the accumulation: China is running the world’s largest current account surplus, and government data show about half the dollar deposits are held by local companies that have boomed with demand for their exports.

The same outperformance has attracted global capital, which has poured into a stock market riding on the pandemic recovery and credit markets paying better yields than other big economies because policy settings have begun to tighten.

Little guarantee

Yet these factors provide little guarantee of the cash pile’s longevity, especially as they meet with a fearsome shift in the dollar/yuan exchange rate, which has fallen 11 per cent in a year.

To be sure, plenty of currency traders think that makes sustained further dollar drops unlikely.

UBS’ Arora and HSBC’s Mackel both reckon a drop to 6.25 per dollar is possible, but that a recovery follows – to around current levels of 6.38 by year’s end for Arora and for Mackel to around 6.60 by end 2021.

Most also reckon the central bank will not tolerate further gains and cite jaw boning from officials to cool the rally and the move to tamp down on dollar liquidity, by raising banks’ reserves ratio, as evidence of its resolve.

Onshore banking sources said that demand for new dollar loans was dire, even at rock-bottom rates – and data shows the value of deposits overhauling loans in December.

“How this has changed over the past few years has been quite phenomenal,” said Patrick Law, head of north Asia local markets and Asia non-deliverable forwards at Bank of America in Hong Kong.

“Last year was the first in over a decade or more, that there were more foreign currency deposits than foreign currency loans and that imbalance has grown in 2021,” he said.

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Why is it so annoying to send money abroad?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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If you’ve ever spent significant time abroad, or tried supporting family overseas, you know that the process of sending money internationally can be stressful. It costs time and money — often too much of both. There’s hope that global crypto currencies will make this process easier, but until those become more accepted, you’ll have to find other ways to save.

I remember returning to New Delhi after a semester at Yale University in Connecticut some years back and trying to move what I had in U.S. dollars to my bank account in India. The process of remitting these savings was so clunky – involving applications in banks in both countries — that I just used my U.S. debit card until the account ran dry. I’m sure I paid a bunch of fees and got short-changed on currency conversion costs, but I found it easier to spend this money rather than spending time trying to find a cheaper way.

Although the costs of remitting have fallen in recent years, they’re still above the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal of 3% per transaction by 2030. A world bank study shows that the overall average costs of transmission were 6.5% in 2020, with sending money digitally costing slightly less and sending via bank transfer slightly more.

That means for every $100 you want to remit abroad, you really only send around $93 on average. This varies depending on how you move your money and by where you’re sending money to and from. For example, remitting from a Group of Twenty (G20) country will on average cost just more than 3% if it’s going to India, but more than 6% if it’s going to South Africa. When money is sent within Sub-Saharan Africa, fees can into as much as 20% of the amount.

That’s a heavy cost for what should be a simple transaction. According to the World Bank, global citizens sent and received more than $650 billion in personal remittances in 2019. That means we lost around $45 billion to costs alone.

Fortunately, there are a few things you can do to lower your own costs when trundling money around the world. But keep in mind that exact costs will depend on where you are and where you’re remitting to.

First, it helps to know that there are two main components of the cost in sending money abroad: the fees of the bank or transmitting entity you use, and the foreign exchange margin they make when they buy at the lower end of the currency exchange rate and sell at the higher end. You should check both before you move any money. You’re getting a good deal if your total cost — fees plus the currency exchange margin — is lower than 5% of the transaction amount. If you’re being offered 8% of the amount, that’s generally too much.

You should also consider where you go. There are four entities that will do the job: banks, credit and debit cards, traditional money transfer firms and fintechs. No surprises here that the banks and cash transfers cost the most and fintech firms the least.

If the country you’re remitting to allows for exchanging mobile money through e-wallets, then that’s likely to be the cheapest way to send and receive money. Find a licensed, regulated entity that works between the geographies you want to move money between, and check if the total cost is less than 5%. But keep in mind that certain places don’t have wallets that work with each other, and that there may be country specific rules around the movement of money.

Cost isn’t the only consideration either. Perhaps it’s worth paying the higher bank transfer fees because you get the greatest sense of security from going through that institution. It usually helps to find others you who have made similar payments and see what worked best for them.

Of course, what you decide to use will ultimately depend on your goals. Are you trying to set up a child who’s just moved abroad? If so, going through a bank is still your best bet. And you’ll want to make sure they have at least two months of rent, food and other expenses in cash since setting up cross-border bank accounts takes time.

Are you sending money back to your family on a regular basis? Then you’ll want a cheaper fintech solution if possible, otherwise a bank will remain your friend. If you’re just traveling for a short period (once we’re traveling again), you can simply use your debit or credit cards to get access to your own money — check with your card company, though, about any foreign transaction fees — or you can use mobile money in the form of e-wallets.

No, these solutions aren’t perfect, and yes, the remittance system remains a headache. We can only hope that as crypto currencies gain acceptance, moving money across countries will become as fast, easy and cheap as moving money within them.



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Why is it so annoying to send money abroad?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

[ad_1]

Read More/Less


If you’ve ever spent significant time abroad, or tried supporting family overseas, you know that the process of sending money internationally can be stressful. It costs time and money — often too much of both. There’s hope that global crypto currencies will make this process easier, but until those become more accepted, you’ll have to find other ways to save.

I remember returning to New Delhi after a semester at Yale University in Connecticut some years back and trying to move what I had in U.S. dollars to my bank account in India. The process of remitting these savings was so clunky – involving applications in banks in both countries — that I just used my U.S. debit card until the account ran dry. I’m sure I paid a bunch of fees and got short-changed on currency conversion costs, but I found it easier to spend this money rather than spending time trying to find a cheaper way.

Although the costs of remitting have fallen in recent years, they’re still above the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal of 3% per transaction by 2030. A world bank study shows that the overall average costs of transmission were 6.5% in 2020, with sending money digitally costing slightly less and sending via bank transfer slightly more.

That means for every $100 you want to remit abroad, you really only send around $93 on average. This varies depending on how you move your money and by where you’re sending money to and from. For example, remitting from a Group of Twenty (G20) country will on average cost just more than 3% if it’s going to India, but more than 6% if it’s going to South Africa. When money is sent within Sub-Saharan Africa, fees can into as much as 20% of the amount.

That’s a heavy cost for what should be a simple transaction. According to the World Bank, global citizens sent and received more than $650 billion in personal remittances in 2019. That means we lost around $45 billion to costs alone.

Fortunately, there are a few things you can do to lower your own costs when trundling money around the world. But keep in mind that exact costs will depend on where you are and where you’re remitting to.

First, it helps to know that there are two main components of the cost in sending money abroad: the fees of the bank or transmitting entity you use, and the foreign exchange margin they make when they buy at the lower end of the currency exchange rate and sell at the higher end. You should check both before you move any money. You’re getting a good deal if your total cost — fees plus the currency exchange margin — is lower than 5% of the transaction amount. If you’re being offered 8% of the amount, that’s generally too much.

You should also consider where you go. There are four entities that will do the job: banks, credit and debit cards, traditional money transfer firms and fintechs. No surprises here that the banks and cash transfers cost the most and fintech firms the least.

If the country you’re remitting to allows for exchanging mobile money through e-wallets, then that’s likely to be the cheapest way to send and receive money. Find a licensed, regulated entity that works between the geographies you want to move money between, and check if the total cost is less than 5%. But keep in mind that certain places don’t have wallets that work with each other, and that there may be country specific rules around the movement of money.

Cost isn’t the only consideration either. Perhaps it’s worth paying the higher bank transfer fees because you get the greatest sense of security from going through that institution. It usually helps to find others you who have made similar payments and see what worked best for them.

Of course, what you decide to use will ultimately depend on your goals. Are you trying to set up a child who’s just moved abroad? If so, going through a bank is still your best bet. And you’ll want to make sure they have at least two months of rent, food and other expenses in cash since setting up cross-border bank accounts takes time.

Are you sending money back to your family on a regular basis? Then you’ll want a cheaper fintech solution if possible, otherwise a bank will remain your friend. If you’re just traveling for a short period (once we’re traveling again), you can simply use your debit or credit cards to get access to your own money — check with your card company, though, about any foreign transaction fees — or you can use mobile money in the form of e-wallets.

No, these solutions aren’t perfect, and yes, the remittance system remains a headache. We can only hope that as crypto currencies gain acceptance, moving money across countries will become as fast, easy and cheap as moving money within them.



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