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Mumbai, The digitisation drive and pandemic-induced emergence of the gig economy have led to a faster formalisation of the economy, with the share of the informal sector shrinking to just 15-20 per cent in 2021 from 52.4 per cent in 2018, according to an SBI Research report. Share of the informal economy has fallen drastically to 15-20 per cent of the gross value added (GVA) or the formal GDP in 2020-21 from 52.4 per cent in 2017-18 due to digitisation and the rapidly expanding gig economy, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic advisor at SBI.

The share of the same had stood at 53.9 per cent in 2011-12.

According to Ghosh, many measures since the note-ban in November 2016 have accelerated digitisation of the economy, and the pandemic-induced emergence of the gig economy has facilitated higher formalisation of the economy, at rates possibly much faster than most other nations.

The note ban hit hardest the informal sector which then constituted 93 per cent of the workforce. The second blow to the informal economy was the GST and the final and the hardest hit came from the pandemic.

At least Rs 13 lakh crore has come under the formal economy through various channels over the past few years, including the recent scheme on the E-Shram portal, the report said.

Real GDP was estimated at Rs 135.13 lakh crore in FY21 but lost 7.3 per cent of that in FY22 after the worst economic contraction on record due to the pandemic.

The 2011 Census pegged the size of the informal sector in trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting at 40 per cent; in construction at around 34 per cent; 16 per cent of public administration; and 20 per cent of manufacturing and almost 100 per cent formalisation in finance, insurance and utilities, and to a large extent in real estate and agriculture.

The formal financial sector has even expanded by 10 per cent post-the pandemic, with the DBT transfers gaining traction and that of formalised utility services size expanded by 1 per cent during the pandemic, according to the report.

The report, quoting the monthly EPFO payroll data, said that since FY18, almost 36.6 lakh jobs have been formalised till July 2021 and the report expects that this fiscal formalisation rate will be higher than FY20 but lower than the FY19 level.

Since FY18, the agriculture sector has been formalised by 20-25 per cent due to the increasing penetration of KCC credit and now the informal agriculture sector is 70-75 per cent.

Over the years, usage of Kisan credit cards has also increased significantly as the per card outstanding has gone up from Rs 96,578 in FY18 to Rs 1,67,416 in FY22, an increase of Rs 70,838. And there are 6.5 crore such cards, the amount formalised is Rs 4.6 lakh crore, the report noted.

It also said payments worth Rs 1 lakh crore have been made at petrol pumps alone in the past five years.

A sizeable informal economy is not just an emerging and developing economy feature, and according to the IMF, 20 per cent of the European GDP is an informal economy.

On the impact of the just-launched E-Shram portal, a first-ever national database of unorganised workers, on the formalisation of the economy, the report said as much as 5.7 crore unorganised workers have registered in the first two months after its launch in August, with 62 per cent of workers belonging to the 18-40 age-group and 92 per cent of the registered workers having monthly income of under Rs 10,000.

Ghosh considers the E-Shram portal to be a big step towards employment formalisation as to date the rate of formalisation of unorganised labour due to E-Shram is around 17 per cent or Rs 6.8 lakh crore, which is 3 per cent of GDP in just two months.

He also called for more rationalisation of indirect taxes like GST and excise, saying just 11.4 crore tax-paying households or 8.5 per cent of the total population contribute Rs 75 lakh crore or 65 per cent of the private final consumption expenditure and cross-subsidies to 91.5 per cent of the population.

As of the 2014 NSSO survey, as much as 93 per cent of the workforce earned their livelihoods as informal workers, who were hit the hardest by the pandemic too.



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AMNS India executes paperless bill discounting transaction in partnership with ICICI Bank, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi: AMNS India on Sunday said its has executed “a paperless bill discounting transaction” in partnership with ICICI Bank. Gujarat-based ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) India said it is first such transaction in India.

The end-to-end electronic transaction, comprising digital issuance of letter of credit (LC), advisory and presentment of documents took place among AMNS India, its Baroda-based customer Vijay Tanks and ICICI Bank, the steel maker said in a statement.

“In a step forward for digitising trade payments, AMNS India today (Sunday) announced it has executed the country’s first domestic paperless bill discounting transaction in partnership with ICICI Bank,” it said.

ICICI Bank was the intermediary between the buyer and seller, the statement said.

The bank’s branch in Baroda, Gujarat, issued an LC for the buyer Vijay Tanks, while its branch at Hazira advised and negotiated for the seller AMNS India, it said.

The terms of the LC required AMNS India to digitally present the documents to ICICI Bank evidencing the transaction flow.

In the statement, AMNS India Deputy Chief Financial Officer Amit Harlalka said it is a positive step towards enabling the digitisation of trade payments and provides for better working capital efficiency for the company and trade partners.

“This transaction is seen by many in banking and business as a prelude to the blockchain, a technology even more robust in security, identity and transparency, and which is now being widely studied for possible adoption by Indian banks,” he said.

ICICI Bank Head (Transaction Banking and SME Group) Ajay Gupta said, “We are glad to have partnered with AMNS India to execute India’s first paperless bill discounting transaction. The bank continues to play a pioneering role in re-imagining digital and cashless payments in India.”

This innovative solution has the potential to enable greater velocity of trades at lower cost for customers, AMNS India said.

In paper-based trades, physical goods at times arrive before their supporting documents, leading to corporates incurring demurrage charges. This will be a thing of the past with such digital developments, it said.

AMNS India further said it actively encourages the digitisation of processes across all its work streams from finance to sales to operations.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced companies in steel sector and beyond to manage their manufacturing and administration in different ways, and accelerated the adoption of digital technology, the statement said.



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US banks are expected to cut 200,000 jobs over the next decade as they strive to improve productivity and efficiency amid rising competition from fintech and non-bank financial institutions, according to a Well Fargo analyst.

Mike Mayo has predicted that US banks would cut 200,000 jobs, or 10% of employees, over the next decade, according to a report.

The Wells Fargo analyst has given a similar call in 2019 saying that technological efficiencies will result in the biggest reduction in headcount across the US banking industry in its history, with an estimated 200,000 job cuts over the next decade.

In the fresh call, he said, this will be the biggest reduction in U.S. bank headcount in history.

Low paying jobs at risk

Mayo said that low-paying jobs are most at risk, such as those in branches and call centres as banks adapt to the new realities following the coronavirus pandemic. He added that job cuts have been necessary as technology companies and non-bank lenders increasingly gained market share in the payment and lending business over the past years.

The analyst said, “If I was giving advice to my kids, I’d say you probably don’t want to go into the financial industry.” He noted that technology and customer or client-facing roles are probably the only areas that will see growth, emphasizing that “It’s likely to be a shrinking industry.”

Digitisation accelerated and that played to the strength of some fintech and other tech providers,” Mayo said. Banks must become more productive to remain relevant. And that means more computers and less people, he said.

2019 report

The Wells Fargo study in 2019 has said that the $150 billion annually that the country’s finance firms are spending on tech — more than any other industry — will lead to lower costs, with employee compensation accounting for half of all bank expenses.

Back office, bank branch, call centre and corporate employees are being cut by about a fifth to a third, with jobs related to tech, sales, advising and consulting less affected, according to the study.

“It will be a dramatic change in contact centres, and these are both internal and external,” Michael Tang, a Deloitte partner who leads the consulting firm’s global financial-services innovation practice, said in an interview in the Wells Fargo report. “We’re already seeing signs of it with chatbots, and some people don’t even know that they’re chatting with an AI engine because they’re just answering questions.”

Wells Fargo’s Mayo joins bank executives, consulting firms and others in predicting huge cuts to the banking workforce amid the push toward automation. McKinsey & Co. said in May that it expects the headcount for front-office workers — the bankers and traders historically seen as among nance firms’ most valuable assets — to drop by almost a third with the rise of robots.

Front-office headcount for investment banking and trading fell for a fifth year in 2018, according to Coalition Development Ltd. data. R. Martin Chavez, an architect of Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s effort to transform itself with tech, had said last month that all traders will soon need coding skills to succeed on Wall Street.



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