Nomura business index hits new high of 114

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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) has risen to yet another high of 114 for the week ending November 21 from 110.3 in the prior week, suggesting the business resumption index is 14 percentage points (pp) above pre-pandemic levels (i.e., 100).

Google workplace mobility rose sharply by 18.1 pp, while retail and recreation fell by 3.3 pp and the Apple driving index rose by 3.6 pp. The labour participation rate remained tepid at 39.8 per cent, while power demand rose by 0.2 per cent w-o-w, as payback from the 5.5 per cent rose in the prior week.

“A mix of supply-side headwinds and demand-side tailwinds continue to obscure the growth outlook. On the demand side, there is evidence of strong festival demand among consumers, an uptick in credit growth and robust core imports in October. Low infection rates and reopenings are also boosting mobility and services activity,” Nomura said.

“However, October auto sales have been lacklustre, reflecting not only semiconductor shortages but also the impact of weak rural demand on two-wheeler sales. The energy crunch seems to be easing, with a rise in coal stocks at power plants. Overall, we maintain our GDP growth outlook of 9.2 per cent for FY22, with a downside risk of ~1 pp due to supply issues,” Nomura added.

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With rise in hospital bills, demand for high-value cover goes up

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Worries over high medical costs for Covid-19 treatment are pushing a number of people to look at high-value health insurance covers of as much as ₹1 crore.

Insurers say that while the overall average sum insured for health insurance has increased to at least ₹5 lakh, many are even taking up policies of ₹1 crore.

“Of late, there is demand for ₹1 crore sum-insured health insurance covers. Earlier, there was not so much of demand. With the kind of expenditure incurred in Covid-19 treatment, many people are looking at such policies. Also, there isn’t a huge increase in premium if a person moves from a ₹20 lakh policy to ₹1 crore cover,” said Rakesh Goyal, Director at Probus Insurance. There are also additional features in such high net policies with global insurance cover. This is not a mass market product, he further said.

Also read: Insurers settle Covid claims worth over ₹15,000 cr

Vivek Gambhir, Senior Vice-President and Product Head – Accident and Health at Tata AIG General Insurance also said there is a move towards higher sum-insured with the average size being between ₹5 lakh and ₹10 lakh.

“Some companies are also offering ₹1 crore policies,” he said.

Higher medical inflation

Gambhir, however, attributed this high sum insured to not only Covid -19 but also to increased medical inflation over the last four to five years. “Covid has had an impact but in the last four to five years, the average room rent has increased significantly. So, average claim size also increases,” Gambhir added.

While many first-time customers are purchasing health covers of ₹1 crore, others with existing policies are also going for a top-up cover.

“In severe Covid cases, often long duration on a ventilator or even ECMO is needed. A high value policy can take care of such expenditure,” noted an executive with another insurance company, pointing out that many insurers were offering such covers even in the past.

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Bharti AXA Life Insurance expects 20% growth in business in current fiscal

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Bharti AXA Life Insurance expects 20 per cent growth in business during the current fiscal backed by higher demand for protection and guaranteed plans amid the Covid-19 induced pandemic. The company had witnessed a four per cent growth in business premium at ₹2,281 crore in FY21.

According to Parag Raja, MD & CEO, Bharti AXA Life, the life insurance industry is estimated to grow 12-15 per cent during the current fiscal, as against a single digit growth it had clocked in FY21.

“The current pandemic has forced consumers to shift their mindset when it comes to life insurance as a product category. Pre covid, people generally bought life insurance for tax saving or for some for sort of obligation, but the current humanitarian crisis has forced people to start thinking about this. Our estimate is that the life insurance industry should grow by 12-15 per cent during the current fiscal and we want to outperform the industry growth,” Raja told BusinessLine.

The company’s assets under management grew by 36 per cent and renewal premium grew by 10 per cent in FY-21, which indicates that customers have understood the need for staying invested in insurance products, he said. Close to ₹1,500 crore out of the total premium of ₹2,281 crore was renewal premium.

In FY21, Covid-related claims accounted for nearly 16 per cent of the total 2,874 claims registered. In value terms, Covid related claims accounted for nearly 21 per cent of the total payout of around ₹180 crore. However, in the second wave there has been a sharp rise in claims.

“In the second wave we have already received 60-70 per cent of last years’ Covid claims in the first two months,” he said.

Growing demand

The pandemic has led to a clear shift among consumers to protection products which has hospitalisation and critical illness built into it. Moreover, consumers are not looking for too long term product and instead are willing to pay for shorter duration because of the uncertainty around personal financial position beyond five years.

Protection plans, which accounted for a meagre two-to-three per cent of the company’s total premiums, increased to five per cent by the end of last fiscal. This has further increased to around 10 per cent in the last two-to-three months.

Based on consumer insights, the company had modified seven existing products and launched three new products last year. This year again, it is looking to launch three new products one under guaranteed income platform, one on par platform and for the third one it is waiting for IRDAI’s final guidelines post which it plans to launch an index linked product subject to the regulator’s approval.

“Pure protection products are cheaper. In the new protection plans we launched we gave them option to pay for shorter period of time. We have also introduced some innovative features and giving benefits to clients who are practising healthy habits in the form of a discount,” he said.

Digital approach

According to Raja, nearly 60 per cent of consumers are researching online and purchasing offline and this trend is here to stay.

The pandemic has forced the entire industry to re-imagine business model, particularly the technology and digital solutions offered to both employees and customers. The company has launched a direct to consumer channel apart from its traditional proprietary and partnership channel. This apart, it has also launched WhatAapp servicing for customers to ensure that nearly 90 per cent of services including claims intimation can be done through the platform.

“Digital business, which currently accounts for nearly five per cent of our total sales, is expected to grow to 15-20 per cent in the next three-to-four years,” he said.

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RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai, As the severe Covid crisis and the resultant lockdowns have shut down economic activities to a great extent, the monthly RBI Bulletin has said that demand and employment have been among the most impacted economic aspects amid the second Covid wave.

The RBI Bulletin for May 2021 noted that the real economy indicators moderated through April-May 2021.

“The biggest toll of the second wave is in terms of a demand shock – loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment, besides inventory accumulation, while the aggregate supply is less impacted,” it said.

It, however, said that the resurgence of Covid-19 has dented, but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1 2021-22. Although extremely tentative at this stage, the central tendency of available diagnosis is that the loss of momentum is not as severe as at this time a year ago, it added.

On the NBFC segment, the report said that the consolidated balance sheet of NBFCs grew at a slower pace in Q2 and Q3 2020-21. However, NBFCs were able to continue credit intermediation, albeit at a lower rate, reflecting the resilience of the sector.

The Reserve Bank and the government undertook various liquidity augmenting measures to tackle Covid-19 disruptions, which facilitated favourable market conditions as indicated by the pick-up in debenture issuances.



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Banks demand deadline extension for Covid packages

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Banks have petitioned the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that the 180-day timeline for implementing resolution plans for borrower accounts under the August 6, 2020 circular on “Resolution Framework for Covid-19-related Stress” should be extended as few of them are facing headwinds due to second pandemic wave.

As per the circular, resolution of exposures (other than personal loans) must be implemented within 180 days from the date of invocation (not later than December 31, 2020). So, the resolution plan has to be implemented by June-end 2021. But in view of the adverse impact of Covid-19, banks want leeway of 90 more days in implementing the resolution plan.

Loan moratorium

Banks also want RBI to consider a three month loan moratorium for retail and micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) borrowers so that they can weather the Covid challenge without worrying about servicing loans.

Banks have also requested the Government to extend the emergency credit line guarantee scheme (ECLGS) for Business Enterprises/ MSMEs beyond the June 30, 2021 deadline. This scheme is aimed at helping Business Enterprises/ MSMEs meet their working capital needs. A banker observed that RBI is examining lenders’ pleas and is likely take a call by May-end.

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HDFC Bank’s Rahul Shukla confident about bank’s portfolio

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The country’s largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, is optimistic about credit demand from India Inc in the new fiscal and said there is already capex-led credit demand in mid-sized corporates and small and medium enterprises.

“The economy will show a synchronous recovery with a pick-up in domestic demand in consumption and investment and external demand in the following 12 months. There are strong expectations of private sector capex revival in the second half,” said Rahul Shukla, Group Head, Wholesale Banking, HDFC Bank.

In an interaction with BusinessLine, he said that even today, there is private sector capex leading to credit demand in sectors such as food processing, textiles, industrial chemicals, iron and steel in some parts of country, packaging, auto components and electrical appliances.

HDFC Bank registers double-digit growth in deposits and advances in Q3

Noting that the capital expenditure is front loaded by the government, Shukla said the infrastructure cycle is robust for banks to participate.

Upward trend

“Today, you can’t think of a central public sector enterprise that has not increased its capex plans significantly. This push is showing its impact on the economy,” he said.

Shukla also noted that various macro indicators, including PMI data, goods and services tax collections, e-way bills and passenger vehicle sales, are showing an upward trend.

HDFC Bank, CSC partner to launch EMI collection service for business correspondents

“Due to a normal revival of nominal GDP growth in 2021-22, along with a strong push to infrastructure and industrial growth (through PLI and rising commodity prices), loan growth could rise,” he said, adding that a revival of growth through capex, strong balance sheets of the largest banks, creation of a bad bank and low interest-rate environment could lead to a secular revival of loan growth.

Data released by the Reserve Bank of India revealed that bank credit rose by 6.63 per cent to ₹107.75 lakh crore in the fortnight ended February 26, 2021.

Balanced advances

Meanwhile, when asked about HDFC Bank’s wholesale strategy going forward, Shukla said the lender has largely maintained balanced advances of 50:50 retail and wholesale.

“That is our model. It is balanced. There are times when retail is slow and wholesale picks up and there are times when wholesale will be slow and retail picks up,” he said.

Shukla also expressed confidence about the bank’s portfolio and said it will continue to perform well during the current phase.

“It has been tested through the pandemic and has given us greater confidence in our approach to doing business,” he stressed.

As on December 31, 2020, HDFC Bank had reported a 5.2 per cent growth in domestic retail loans and 25.5 per cent increase in domestic wholesale loans. The domestic loan mix as per Basel 2 classification between retail:wholesale was 48:52.

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RBI’s norms will enhance stability of NBFC sector: Fitch Ratings

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The proposed changes to India’s regulatory framework for non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) recently unveiled in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) discussion paper are likely to enhance the sector’s stability, according to Fitch Ratings.

The credit rating agency believes that the reforms would preserve NBFIs’ niche business models, and could improve the funding environment for some entities by strengthening investor confidence in the sector.

”For the sector as a whole, the proposed measures should strengthen governance and risk management, although we do not view these areas as major credit weaknesses for Fitch-rated Indian NBFIs. The longer-term impact of such reform would also depend on its implementation, and robust regulatory and market scrutiny will be key in holding entities to higher standards,” the agency said in a note.

Scale-based regulations

ICRA observed that larger entities face enhanced disclosure requirements, and tighter risk and capital management requirements, which would likely be credit positive, it added.

It opined that the scale-based regulations reflect calls for closer supervision of large NBFIs that have grown more systemically significant.

“We believe the moves to strengthen risk controls and frameworks should be manageable for Fitch-rated NBFIs. For example, they should already comfortably meet the suggested requirement for “Upper Layer” NBFIs, expected to include 25-30 of the largest entities including Fitch-rated names, to maintain a minimum common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9 per cent,” the agency said.

Fitch views proposals to appoint auditors by rotation, as well as requirements to disclose information such as the incidence of covenant breaches and asset quality divergence as credit positive.

Unlike banks, many NBFIs have appointed the same auditors for many years. In addition, lending to directors and senior employees would be restricted, reducing governance risks.

Core banking solution

Requirements to implement a core banking solution (credited for improving efficiency and reducing operational risks in banks) and introduce an internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) could further strengthen the framework for monitoring and managing risks.

Most large NBFIs’ systems are already integrated with banks and payment portals, and Fitch believes additional costs to meet the core banking solution requirement would be manageable. However, the measure could pose a more significant expense for mid-sized NBFIs.

For NBFIs in the Upper Layer, listing may be made mandatory. The agency opined that this would affect only a few corporate-backed NBFIs, and should not present a challenge given their parents’ experience in capital markets.

 

Real estate lending

In general, business models should not be significantly affected, but some lending activities could be curtailed by the suggested changes, especially in real estate, ICRA said.

The agency observed that the RBI is looking to restrain lending to early-stage development projects that have not yet received regulatory approval, and has proposed added internal controls for lending against land acquisition.

“Some entities have built up exposures to these risky areas in recent years, which have become a point of vulnerability for the sector. The suggested new rules could curb a further run-up in such exposures in the longer term,” the agency said.

Provisioning

Fitch is of the view that the suggested reform would also raise NBFIs’ standard provisioning requirements on commercial real estate lending, to be in line with those for banks.

Fitch-rated Indian NBFIs do not engage in real estate lending, other than IIFL Finance. However, if IIFL is placed in the Upper Layer, any added provisioning from this proposal is unlikely to be significant relative to the firm’s broader provisioning needs in light of the pandemic, the agency said.

Fitch noted that NBFIs with assets below ₹1,000 crore (around $130 million) would continue to operate under current frameworks, but additional rules aligning non-performing loan recognition and a new leverage cap of seven times would add to regulatory robustness.

The central bank further highlighted the need for a resolution framework for failing NBFIs. This would be another important element in the regulator’s financial stability toolkit.

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