Predictions by Standard Chartered and Finder reveal the mercurial and beneficial futures of Ethereum and Bitcoin, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The fluctuations in the values of Bitcoin and Ethereum keep investors on edge. To address investor sentiments and anxiety, research website Finder and the UK-based multinational bank, Standard Chartered’s global research team, have conducted an exercise. They have made significant forecasts about the Bitcoin and Ethereum market tendencies based on the existing potential and investment reputation of the coins.

Here are some key takeaways from the forecasts.

Price predictions for Bitcoin:

  • According to Finder, Bitcoin would culminate at $107,484 in 2021, before capping off at $94,967. The Finder panel expects Bitcoin to jump to an average of $3, 60,179 by 2025.
  • The Standard Chartered research team’s prediction is that Bitcoin’s price would increase to thrice the current value, taking it to the range of $50, 000 – $1,75,000 per BTC.
  • About 49 percent of Finder’s panel think it’s the right time to buy BTC, while 39 percent plan to hold off, and 12 percent want to sell them.

Price predictions of Ethereum:

  • Finder panellists forecasted that the Ethereum price would peak at $4, 512 by the year end.
  • The panel expects Ethereum to reach $19,842 on average by 2025.
  • Panelists including Joseph Raczynski, technologist at Thomson Reuters and Joel Kruger of LMAX group, believe that the ongoing upgrades in Ethereum and its intrinsic potential will inevitably boost its valuation and innovations hosted on it’s network. Standard Chartered also believed that the ongoing upgrade would improve Ethereum’s functionality and efficiency.
  • 59 percent of the panel said it was the right time to buy Ethereum, while 28 percent advised investors to hold off their investments.
  • Standard Chartered prophesied that Ethereum will shoot up 10 times in a price range of $26, 000- $35,000 per ether.
  • The Standard Chartered team even expects Ether to outdo Bitcoin and its returns to overgrow Bitcoin with increased risks.

Further, 51 percent of the Finder research panel predicted that Ethereum would be the most transacted cryptocurrency in 2022, and 49 percent believed Bitcoin would lead. Moreover, 70 percent of panelists believed that Ethereum’s usage will grow owing to a spurt in the sale of DeFi and NFTs. Though the analysts believe that Ethereum can outshine Bitcoin, they pointed out two major threats to Ethereum.

  • A majority of the Finder panel, 55 percent to be precise, think that the ownership of the 70 percent ethers by whale investors is a moderate risk to the cryptocurrency, while 24 percent consider it a huge risk.
  • The emerging and growing smart contract blockchains are believed to be a risk to Ethereum according to 62 percent Finder panelists, while 32 percent consider those blockchains to succeed independently or growing as Ethereum’s complementary.

Top cryptocurrencies in long term and short term:

  • Long term -The top lucrative altcoins projected by the panellists were Polkadot (DOT); 7 percent said Bitcoin cash is a preferred choice for long-term purchase.
  • Short term – The most popular altcoins were Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT). The least popular ones were Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Klaytn (KLAY).

Commenting on the different capabilities of Ethereum, Geoffery Kendrick, Head crypto research at Standard Chartered, said that Ethereum works like a financial market that facilitates lending, insurance and exchanges, while Bitcoin is almost like a currency. Raczynski said that Ethereum is an ecosystem that has transforming perspectives for all the industries, whereas Bitcoin is now a household name.



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RBI ex-Guv Subbarao explains why RBI is anxious about cryptocurrency, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated multiple times that it has “serious” and “major” concerns about cryptocurrencies without ever explaining what those concerns could be. The central bank’s aversion to virtual currencies is seen as one of the primary motivations behind the government’s bill to ban all private cryptocurrencies.

The crypto industry believes the central bank is looking at cryptocurrencies through a narrow lens and is failing to appreciate the various use cases for such virtual currencies. The industry’s argument is that cryptocurrencies are a digital asset, and not a threat to the monetary sovereignty of the rupee.

While concerns that cryptocurrencies can facilitate money laundering and terror financing are being expressed globally, RBI, on its part, has shied away from explaining its key concerns in detail, leaving the crypto industry scratching its head.

In an interview with ETMarkets.com, former RBI Governor Dr D Subbarao said RBI’s concerns over cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are three-fold.

Monetary Stability
RBI is the sole manager of currency in the economy and is responsible for the upkeep of the monetary system. Subbarao believes if virtual currencies gained traction, then it could threaten the monetary stability, as “it is quite possible that domestic price formation could be set in that virtual currency.”

Financial Stability
For Subbarao, the threat to the financial stability of the Indian economy from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is simple. “If regulated institutions, banks for example, are exposed to virtual currencies and if that currency is very volatile, then there could be financial instability,” Subbarao said.

The former finance secretary believes the threat to financial stability is particularly large from virtual currencies that do not have an intrinsic value and are backed by just algorithms, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Capital Outflow
Interestingly, Subbarao sees virtual currencies such as Bitcoin as a threat to the stability of the external sector of India. “Cryptocurrencies could become a conduit for capital flight, especially in a country like India where there is still no full convertibility of capital,” the former governor said.

In that light, Subbarao sees the efforts of central banks to create their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC) as a defensive mechanism. A central bank digital currency is a virtual version of the sovereign currency of the country and is issued by the central bank. This is different from private cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which is issued by private citizens.

Subbarao, who helmed the central bank during Global Financial Crisis as well as the infamous ‘taper tantrum’ period of 2013-14, is of the view that Facebook’s plans to launch a stablecoin back in 2016 (Libra) was the turning from when central banks saw cryptocurrencies as an assault to their sovereignty.

The former governor, who currently resides in Singapore, believes RBI’s primary motivation to launch a central bank digital currency is to not be left behind. “Main motivation is to ensure that it is not left behind in a world where CBDCs might become very ubiquitous,” Subbarao said.

CBDCs could also help the central bank reduce the high costs that it bears in printing and maintaining currency in circulation. However, in an economy where payment systems have already become very penetrative and virtual wallets are growing every minute, Subbarao sees little incentive for individuals to move away from private cryptocurrencies.



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Crypto adoption goes up in tier-2 and tier-3 cities in India, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: According to the data from crypto exchanges including CoinDCX and Wazir X, tier-2 and tier-3 cities are adopting and acclimatizing to cryptocurrency trading faster than others, Economic Times reports.

The rise in cryptocurrency adoption is partly attributed to the work-from-home culture brought about by the pandemic as also to the positive response from the government, the report says The diverse profile of the Indian cryptocurrency users has caught as much attention.

Data from the crypto exchanges reveals the following findings:

* Majority of the new signups were reported from tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Wazir X had 55 percent users in 2021 from these small cities.

* Among small cities, Bhopal reported the highest growth at 100 percent, according to BuyUcoin exchange.

* Other leading exchanges also witnessed similar sign-up growth patterns from Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Patna, Vadodara, Kolkata and Bhopal.

* WazirX reported a 2,375 percent increase in sign-ups in 2021, from tier-2 and tier-3 cities.

* The following information came up about the profile of crypto users :

– The new crypto users are mostly under 35 years and possess some kind of degree.

– 90 per cent of these investors are IT professionals, MBA graduates, engineers and start-up owners.

– The local exchanges unanimously reported a remarkable rise in women investors at 30-40 per cent from last year’s 15 per cent.

– The young Indian investors are not only banking on Bitcoin, but are also interested in other forms of cryptocurrency assets like DeFi assets and NFTs.

The new cohort of young cryptocurrency investors who are keen towards all forms of virtual assets. This has led to diversification of the investment patterns in the Indian crypto markets.



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Over 60 South Korean crypto exchanges set to suspend services next week, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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SEOUL: More than 60 cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea must notify customers of a partial or full suspension of trading by Friday midnight, a week before a new regulation comes into effect.

To continue operating, exchanges must register with the Financial Intelligence Unit by Sept. 24, providing a security certificate from the internet security agency. They must also partner with banks to ensure real-name accounts.

Exchanges that have not registered must shut down services after Sept. 24, while those that have registered but failed to secure partnerships with banks will be prohibited from trading in won.

“Should some or all services need to be closed, (exchanges) should notify customers of the expected closing date and procedures to withdraw money by at least seven days before the closure,” the Financial Services Commision said earlier this week. It said this should be completed no later than Sept. 17.

Of all exchanges, nearly 40 are set to suspend all services. A further 28 have security certificates but have not secured bank partnerships.

Just four – Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone and Korbit – have registered and secured partnerships and so will be allowed to make won settlements.

Some smaller exchanges including ProBit, Cashierest and Flybit have already said they will end won trading, and that they will continue operations involving only digital coin trading until securing partnerships with banks.



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Why you should pay attention, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Football superstar Lionel Messi recently launched his own collection of NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, that were created using his image by an Australia-based digital designer and are expected to make billions of dollars.

In India too, Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan has launched his own NFTs, which are themed around his life. Before him, Sunny Leone became the first Bollywood actress to launch her own NFT collection of unique, hand-animated art.

Messi, Big B and Leone are not alone in this business. The popularity of NFT, a type of digital asset, has exploded beyond anyone’s imagination in recent years. NFT artworks have been selling for millions and attracting the attention of big brands, celebrities and icons.

What are NFTs?
In simple terms, NFTs are digital assets that exist on a public blockchain that serves as a record of ownership. While anyone can view the items, only the buyer of an NFT has the ‘official’ status of being its owner.

Unlike digital items that can be endlessly modified and reproduced, each NFT has its own digital footprint, which makes it one of a kind. All kinds of digital objects such as images, text, videos, music and even tweets can be converted into NFTs and that process is called “minting” (Yes, like in the cryptocurrency world).

Growing Popularity
The fact that NFTs can give buyers a sense of “unique ownership” and “Digital Immortality” has unlocked exciting opportunities for digital commerce and engagement.

Despite being in existence since 2017, the popularity of NFTs surged only in 2021. According to DappRadar, a Lithuania-based data tracking company, trading volumes of top NFT collections such as Axie Infinity, CryptoPunks and ArtBlocks increased 300% and generated more than $1.5 billion in sales.

Another report published in Forbes pegged NFT sales at over $1.2 billion – almost half of the $2.5 billion cumulative sales volume in the first two quarters of 2021 – while the dapp (decentralised applications) industry as a whole registered more than 1.4 million daily unique users, a 23.72% increase from the previous month.

Future Possibilities
In the crypto world, the idea of integrating NFTs and e-commerce platforms has been making headlines for a while now. Experts believe due to its digital nature and long shelf life, NFTs can play a significant role in the world of e-commerce and market with high-end goods.

“As mixed reality technologies mature, regular people are going to spend more and more of their time — and therefore money — in virtual environments,” a research associate affiliated with a French international banking group told a Business channel.

Since NFTs are digital in nature, they do not involve the hassles or cost of shipping products (even though there is a certain minting and hosting fee that needs to be paid to the marketplace showcasing the NFTs as collections).

Big opportunities await luxury brands that can potentially offer exclusive and limited NFTs without having to worry about counterfeits since the metadata on the token cannot be changed by users.

Need for Precaution
However, all good things come with certain challenges. And in the case of NFTs, the issue of copyright is one. As the market for NFT grows, cases of digital art being copied on the NFT platforms have surfaced, calling for a strict recourse on digital theft and modification.

Though some platforms such as OpenSea and Nifty Gateway provide users with the option to report or appeal copyright infringement in their terms of service, the absence of any official trademark makes it harder for the creators to lay a claim in the world of the internet.

The issue of cyber-security also looms, as several users have reported about accounts being hacked and NFTs worth thousands of dollars getting stolen.

Crypto could be a threat to brokers, exchanges

OTHER BIG STORIES FROM THE CRYPTO WORLD



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Risks & Regulatory Imperatives, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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In today’s age of the Internet, fiat and account-based electronic money are in a state of flux. A decade after Bitcoin was introduced to the world by Satoshi Nakamoto, token-based digital currencies have proliferated to include a wide variety of private cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies and stablecoins. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are a direct liability of the central banks. Stablecoins, on the other hand, are fiat collateralised (linked to fiat currencies such as the US dollar or euro.) or collateralised as per the value of the underlying asset or reserve.

Regulators across the globe are concerned about the unprecedented growth of tokenized money, stablecoins in particular, and its potential to disintermediate incumbent financial institutions , create volatility and financial stability risks.

Let’s Decrypt Stablecoins
Are the concerns over stablecoins legitimate? Let’s understand this token and its various types in detail to make an informed opinion.

So, what are stablecoins? Unlike Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies, known for wild volatility, stablecoins are blockchain-based cryptocurrencies backed by safe reserves.

But, are stablecoins really stable?

Let’s have a look at different types of stablecoins classified solely on the basis of the value that underpins them.

Types of Stablecoins
● Fiat-collateralized stablecoins: These stablecoins are collateralized by fiat money, such as US dollar, euro or the pound, on a 1:1 ratio. Common examples are Tether (2014), Gemini Dollar(2018) and TrueSD.

● Stablecoins backed by other asset classes: There are a few stablecoins, which are backed by a basket of multiple assets (commercial papers, bonds, real estate, precious metals, etc). The value of these stablecoins can fluctuate over time subject to movement in commodity and precious metal prices. Digix Gold, backed by

physical gold, was introduced in 2018. SwissRealCoin, launched in 2018, had a Swiss real estate portfolio.

● Crypto-collateralized stablecoins: Crypto-collateralized stablecoins are more decentralised than their peers and are backed by cryptocurrencies. The flipside is price volatility. To address the risk of price volatility, these stablecoins are over-collateralised. Dai (launched in 2017) is the most popular crypto-collateralized stablecoin.

● Non-collateralized stablecoins: These stablecoins do not have any backing and are decentralized in the true sense. The supply of non-collateralized stablecoins is governed by algorithms. Basis, introduced in 2018, is the most common stablecoin in this category.

Risks from Stablecoins
Tether, arguably the largest stablecoin issuer, disclosed in March that it held over 75% of its reserves in cash and cash equivalents, most of which are in the form of commercial paper. The remaining assets include loans to unaffiliated entities (12.55%), corporate bonds, funds & precious metals (9.96%), and additional investments which include Bitcoin and other digital tokens (1.64%).

The commercial paper holdings of Tether outnumbered leading money market funds (MMF) in the US and Europe.

In the event of a mass selloff of Tether coins along with other stablecoins, short-term credit markets will have to bear the brunt. In June this year, the crash of Iron, an algorithmic stablecoin, gave us a glimpse of the risk they run. That made Mark Cuban, an America’s billionaire entrepreneur and a victim of Iron collapse, to raise his voice for regulating stablecoins.

Fitch Ratings has rightly cautioned that potential asset contagion risks linked to the liquidation of stablecoin reserve holdings could increase pressure for tighter regulation of the nascent sector.

Clarion Call for Regulation
US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L Yellen has underscored the need to act quickly to ensure there is an appropriate US regulatory framework in place.

“You wouldn’t need stablecoins; you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies, if you had a digital US currency,” US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Congressional hearing this July.

He made it clear that the Fed is done letting stablecoins run amok. “We have a tradition in this country where the public’s money is held in what is supposed to be a very safe asset,” Powell said. “That doesn’t exist for stablecoins, and if they’re going to be a significant part of the payments universe… then we need an appropriate framework, which frankly we don’t have.”

Last year, European Commission came out with a regulatory framework proposal for crypto assets and stablecoins. The Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international body that monitors and makes recommendations about the global financial system, has highlighted the potential of global stablecoins (GSCs). FSB says, “A widely-adopted stablecoin with a potential reach and use across multiple jurisdictions (so-called ‘global stablecoins’ or GSCs) could become systemically important in and across one or many jurisdictions, including as a means of making payments.

But those who back stablecoins say with the established use cases in cross-border payments, settlements and financial inclusion, a global regulatory framework is all that is needed to harness the full potential of stablecoins.



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China’s Bitcoin crackdown sparks fears of dirtier cryptomining, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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TBILISI/KUALA LUMPUR: China‘s sweeping ban on cryptocurrency mining delivered a blow to an industry criticised for its environmental impact, but emissions from the sector could grow as a result unless other countries follow China’s lead, climate and tech experts said.

Bitcoin‘s value tumbled last week after China’s central bank urged banks and payment firms in the country to crack down harder on cryptocurrency trading, in the latest tightening of restrictions on the sector by Beijing.

This was good news for climate activists, who have voiced concerns over the potential for the energy-hungry cryptocurrency mining industry to disrupt international efforts to rein in global warming.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are created or “mined” by high-powered computers competing to solve complex mathematical puzzles, which guzzle energy and fuel planet-warming emissions unless they consume electricity from renewable sources.

Beijing’s recent move has paralysed the Chinese industry – accounting for more than half of global cryptocurrency production – making it far more difficult for individuals in China to trade the digital coins.

But by cutting off access to China’s power grid, with its plentiful supply of affordable renewable energy, the new restrictions could push miners towards dirtier sources of electricity, warned Pete Howson, a senior lecturer in international development at Northumbria University in Britain.

“China produces enormous amounts of cheap hydroelectricity, especially in Sichuan province – all of which is now pretty much off limits to bitcoin miners,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Industry experts predict cryptocurrency production will pick up elsewhere as Chinese miners sell off their machines or seek refuge abroad – often in countries with less renewable energy.

“In both the short and medium term, (the crackdown) will likely increase the emissions related to bitcoin mining,” said Alex de Vries, founder of research platform Digiconomist, which publishes estimates of bitcoin’s climate impact.

“Without China, which is the world’s largest market for renewable energy in absolute terms, it seems unlikely miners have many opportunities to turn greener,” he added.

Shota Siradze, who runs a cryptocurrency business in Tbilisi that helps would-be miners set up shop in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, said his phone started buzzing again last week after months of silence, as China’s announcement prompted a rush of enquiries from foreign investors.

“People are writing and calling me, asking to find space to install huge quantities of processors,” he said, adding he assumed most prospective clients had just bought servers from China.

Earlier cryptocurrency booms in Georgia, which uses mostly hydroelectric power, caused a spike in energy demand and rolling power outages in the breakaway region of Abkhazia, where mining was recently banned.

While some Chinese miners are selling up, others are moving out, reportedly heading to Kazakhstan, which relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity, or Texas, where they could push up utility bills and worsen pre-existing power woes in the southern U.S. state, researchers said.

“The state is in bad shape to welcome bitcoiners,” said Howson at Northumbria University.

“A few months ago, we saw outages there that left millions of people without power. Hundreds of people lost their lives. They froze to death. Bitcoin will make things a lot worse.”

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts say a decentralised digital currency is worth the energy cost, which they say is relatively low, compared to other key sectors of the economy.

Bitcoin mining is currently estimated to account for about 0.3% of global electricity consumption – more than Austria on an annual basis, but about a third of that used by idle household electronics in the United States each year, according to an index compiled by Cambridge University.

Still, industry critics hope China’s action will spark a global crackdown.

“It’s really important now that governments take steps to ban the import of bitcoin mining machines,” said Howson.

“Just like the global trade in Chinese tiger parts, bitcoin mining needs to be managed as an environmental crime.”

Price Volatility
More countries might indeed follow China’s lead, as concerns about cryptocurrencies are not limited to the environment, said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University in New York.

Chinese authorities say cryptocurrencies disrupt economic order, and facilitate illegal asset transfers and money laundering. Analysts say Beijing is also worried about potential competition for the digital yuan.

Last week, the Bank for International Settlements, an umbrella organisation dubbed “the central bank of central banks”, said cryptocurrencies were used for ransomware attacks and financial crimes, adding bitcoin in particular had “few redeeming public interest attributes”.

The coin can still count on influential supporters: Also last week, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele said a law that makes the country the first to adopt bitcoin as legal tender will take effect in September.

But more broadly, China’s actions are likely to be seen as a blow to the legitimisation of decentralised cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, which could further hurt the viability of the digital currencies, said Prasad.

“The key challenge that decentralised cryptocurrencies face is that they have proven to be inefficient and costly mediums of exchange and have, instead, become speculative assets,” he said by email.

“Their lack of intrinsic value will leave them susceptible to enormous price volatility, making it harder still for them to fulfil their ostensible roles as mediums of exchange that are more efficient than existing payment technologies.”



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