Crisil Ratings revises India Inc’s credit quality outlook to ‘positive’

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Crisil Ratings has revised the credit quality outlook of India Inc for fiscal year 2022 to ‘positive’ from ‘cautiously optimistic’ earlier.

Subodh Rai, Chief Ratings Officer, Crisil Ratings said, “Our outlook factors-in strong economic growth, both domestic and global, and containment measures that are localised and less stringent compared with the first wave, which should keep domestic demand buoyant even if a third wave materialises. We believe India Inc is on higher and stronger footing.”

The credit ratio (upgrades to downgrades) in the first four months of this fiscal improved to more than 2.5 times. It had touched a decadal low of 0.54 time amid the first wave in the first half of fiscal 2021, before recovering to 1.33 times in the second half, buoyed by a rebound in demand.

Broad-based recovery

A Crisil Ratings study of 43 sectors (accounting for 75 per cent of the ₹36 lakh crore outstanding rated debt, excluding the financial sector) shows the current recovery is broad-based. As many as 28 sectors (85 per cent of outstanding corporate debt understudy) are on course to see a 100 per cent rebound in demand to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this fiscal, while six sectors will see upwards of 85 per cent.

Among sectors with the most rating upgrades, construction and engineering, and renewable energy benefited from the government’s thrust on infrastructure spending, while steel and other metals gained from higher price realisations and profitability. Pharmaceuticals and specialty chemicals continued to see buoyancy backed by both, domestic and export growth.

But contact-intensive sectors such as hospitality and education services continue to bear the brunt of the pandemic and have had more downgrades than upgrades.

To be sure, targeted relief measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government amid the second wave have cushioned credit profiles in some sectors.

Somasekhar Vemuri, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings said, “Besides regulatory relief measures, a secular deleveraging trend has provided India Inc the balance sheet strength to cushion impact on their credit profiles. The median gearing for the CRISIL Ratings portfolio (excluding the financial sector) declined to ~0.8 time at the end of fiscal 2020 and then to an estimated ~0.7 time in fiscal 2021, from ~1.1 times in fiscal 2016.”

That said, unsecured retail and micro, small and medium enterprise loan segments are likely to witness higher stress over the near term. “The key monitorables from here would be a fat tail in the second wave or an intense third wave. Other risks to the positive credit outlook include regional and temporal distribution of rainfall and its implications for sustained demand recovery. Small businesses, in particular, will be more vulnerable to any slack in demand,’ the ratings agency said.

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Will ensure there is no room for accidents in corporate loan book: Sanjiv Chadha, MD & CEO, Bank of Baroda

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Bank of Baroda (BoB) will ensure that there are no accidents in the corporate loan portfolio and at same time grow retail loans aggressively, without losing sight of the underlying credit quality, said Sanjiv Chadha, MD & CEO of the bank.

In an interaction with BusinessLine, Chadha emphasised that BoB’s credit quality, retail growth engine and Current Account, Savings Account deposits are resilient and capital position now is much stronger as compared to the beginning of FY21 despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Referring to the global markets being flush with liquidity, the chief of India’s third largest public sector bank said when it comes to wholesale loans, it is possible to move the capital from international operations to India and make more money.

Excerpts:

Your corporate advances have come down to 45.5 per cent of gross domestic credit in FY21 from 47.7 per cent. Do you see scope for further change in this proportion?

In FY21, overall credit growth (domestic) was about 5 per cent, with corporate loans growing 0.02 per cent year-on-year (this was partly due to the fact that there was excess liquidity and there was no growth in the economy) and retail loans growing about 14 per cent. Going ahead, I would believe that faster growth will come from retail as compared to the corporate segment because we would want to do two things. First, focus on credit quality in the corporate segment to take full advantage of the credit cycle so that we can bring down our credit cost. The single factor that changes the profit of a bank is the credit cost.

Now, because our credit cost came down by 67 basis points, our profit before tax in FY21 increased to ₹5,556 crore (from -₹1,802 crore in FY20). So, that is what we would want to focus on— making sure there is no room for accidents as far as the corporate book is concerned, but at the same time re-balance the portfolio by being aggressive to the extent possible by keeping the quality intact on retail loans.

So, will you step on the gas vis-a-vis retail loans?

The proportion of retail loans in overall domestic credit would have moved up by about a percentage point in FY21. Going ahead also we should see this kind of progressive movement where the retail loan share keeps on going up while corporate loans come down. But more than the proportion of corporate loans coming down, the credit cost should come down even more and at the same time our margins should improve. If we chase something desperately, our margins will come under pressure, and we will also end up with credit quality which is sub-optimal. We don’t want to get into that game.

So, we would want to grow retail aggressively but without losing sight of the underlying quality (it is possible to do both; I think we have done that —for example we can have low delinquencies in auto loans and make money) and in corporate loans make sure we grow but bring in efficiencies. We have a large corporate book. We will try to see how we can get other income from corporates. Our fee income from cash management was up 75 per cent yoy. And this is what we want to focus on, making sure that while we are lending, we also get our due share of business from corporates.

Why are you betting big on unsecured loans when there are Covid-19 pandemic related salary cuts and job losses?

If we were sitting on an unsecured loan book which was, say, 10-15 per cent of our loan book, I would say “hang on, let’s be very, very careful”. But our base is very small and because of this, any growth shows up as a large percentage of growth. So, I believe, we can be careful. We can have a reasonable growth, which will show up as a higher percentage of growth. But this need not necessarily mean that we are exposing ourselves disproportionately in terms of credit risk.

When it comes to our current delinquencies in the unsecured retail book, they are lower compared to home and car loans. This is simply because of the fact that we are lending only to our existing customers. So, that again gives us a very good handle in terms of quality. These loans are very short tenure, normally a year/year-and-a-half. So, if we believe there any issues, we can quickly re-calibrate in terms of our risk appetite.

What steps are you taking to cut down risk-weighted assets?

I think, the fact is that in FY21 also, we were able to fund our growth entirely through internal accruals —whatever money we earned was enough to take care of our incremental growth. I think, going ahead also, we would want to do that. This means keeping a very tight lid in terms of risk-weighted assets. Now, this will come in two ways. One, where the risk-weight is high in large corporate exposures, we can bring it down. In the international book also, there are asset categories where the risk-weight is high and net interest margins are low. So, I would believe, we would be looking at moving capital, in comparative terms, from the international book to the domestic book because interest margins are higher in the latter.

So, for us, capital management is going to be very important. And we believe that it is possible for the bank in a moderate credit growth scenario (which is what we are likely to see this year and may be the next) to be able to fund the growth precisely by doing what I just mentioned —make sure that we keep our focus on the risk-weight of the assets and also grow in the categories of assets where the risk-weights are low. The moment we move to retail, we are also making sure that the risk-weights come down.

How will you tamp down corporate risk-weights?

It is really a question of the choices we make. When we are saying that we would want to make sure there are no future accidents, this can happen in terms of growing loans in the higher-rated categories. In terms of incremental growth in FY21, nearly 70 per cent growth came from ‘A’ and above rated accounts where risk weights are obviously low. In retail, a large proportion of the growth has come from home loans where risk weights are low. So, I think, it is possible to have a reasonable growth ambition but at the same time, we make sure that we control the risks as well as utilise the capital efficiently.

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ICRA: Negative rating actions in Mar-Dec ’20 exceeded historical 5-year average

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Rating agency ICRA on Wednesday said negative rating actions undertaken by it in the March to December 2020 period exceeded the historical five-year average.

About 13 per cent of the portfolio experienced a rating downgrade compared to the previous five-year average of 9 per cent, it said. Further, as many as 15 sectors, including aviation, hospitality, residential real estate, retail, and commercial vehicles, have a negative outlook in the near to medium term.

“The credit quality of India Inc has experienced rapid changes since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of the nationwide lockdown in March 2020. Business health has been bruised in general and some entities in select sectors have been badly hurt, even though the effects have not been apocalyptic, and the worst-case scenarios have not played out,” ICRA said in a statement.

Also read: PSBs may require up to ₹43,000 cr in FY22: ICRA

According to K Ravichandran, Deputy Chief Rating Officer, ICRA, another 9 per cent of the rated entities witnessed a change in outlook — from Stable to Negative or from Positive to Stable.

“Without the various fiscal and monetary interventions which provided a liquidity relief to the borrowers, the negative rating actions could have been higher,” he said, adding that textiles, real estate and construction were the top three sectors in terms of the count of downgrades.

Besides, aviation and hospitality sectors too witnessed a number of negative rating actions.

In terms of upgrades, only 3 per cent of the rated entities were upgraded in the past 10-month period, compared to the previous five-year average of 9 per cent.

The outlook on sectors including ferrous and non-ferrous metals and textiles has been revised from Negative to Stable following the uptrend in prices and expectations of healthy revenue and profit over the medium term, it said, adding that the outlook on cement, passenger vehicles and auto ancillaries has been revised from Negative to Stable.

“ICRA expects the credit quality pressures to remain elevated in general over the near to medium term; however, the intensity is likely to remain quite varied across sectors,” said Ravichandran.

Also read: ICRA Ratings expects pressure on logistics sector in near term

The instances of defaults have been much lower in the past 10 months due to the benefit of the loan moratorium, the agency said, adding that there were only 30 defaults across the rating spectrum compared with 81 in the corresponding previous period.

It also noted that compared to its earlier expectations of about 6-8 per cent of the borrowers at the system-level to get their loans restructured, only a handful of entities in ICRA’s portfolio had applied for loan restructuring.

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