RBI warns of stress build-up in consumer credit, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The pandemic and its fallout on the economy has made consumer lending riskier for banks even as it has been the only sector to help banks keep their loan books afloat at such times.

The delinquency rates for such loans are going up particularly for private sector banks and NBFCs during the pandemic warned the Reserve Bank of India‘s latest financial stability report. At the same time the second wave has also affected demand for such loans with a steep fall in demand in April , it said.

The Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report notes that the delinquency rates for consumer credit in private sector banks doubled from 1.2 per cent in January 2020 to 2.4 per cent in January 2021. While for NBFCs it went up from 5.3 per cent to 6.7 per cent in the same period. Overall consumer credit deteriorated after the loan moratorium programme came to an end in September 2020.

“While banks and other financial institutions have resilient capital and liquidity buffers, and balance sheet stress remains moderate in spite of the pandemic, close monitoring of MSME and retail credit portfolios is warranted.” the report said.

Consumer credit includes home loans, loans against property, auto loans, two-wheeler loans, commercial vehicle loans, construction equipment loans, personal loans, credit cards, business loans, consumer durable loans, education loans and gold loans.

The overall demand for consumer credit in terms of inquiries had stabilised in Q4’2020-21 after a sharp rebound during the festive season in Q3’2020-21 after the first COVID-19 wave receded. But the second wave, however, has sharply affected credit demand, with a steep fall in inquiries across product categories in April 2021. Growth in credit-active consumers- consumers with at least one outstanding credit account- and, outstanding balances, however, remains sluggish compared to the previous comparable period. For unsecured loans, the fastest-growing category in this segment, for example, fell from 39.4 per cent in January’20 to 6.5 per cent in FY’21. For home, which accounts for a major chunk of this segment, the growth rate of credit-active consumers slowed from 12.03 per cent to 0.3 per cent during the period.

On a positive note, loan inquiries are more from better-rated borrowers. “Loan approval rates remain healthy as the risk tier composition of inquiries shows a distinct tilt towards better-rated customers.” the central bank‘s report said.



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India’s consumer credit market to grow at a higher rate than global economies: Report

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Driven by a shift in demography, a burgeoning affluent middle class ramping up private consumption and growth in rural population, India’s consumer credit market is projected to grow at a higher rate than most major global economies.

According to the Experian-Invest India Credit Ecosystem Review report, the factors supporting the consumer credit market would be all catalysed by technology.

Experian is a global information services company, and Invest India is an Indian agency for investment and facilitation.

V-shaped recovery

The report, which tracks India’s credit ecosystem from March 2017 to February 2021, highlights a ‘V’-shaped recovery across Indian markets, with a gradual and steady improvement in sourcing trends.

Neeraj Dhawan, Managing Director of Experian India, said: “The behavioural shift in Indian population has been tremendous just over the last five years. Consumerism has been growing in the previously untapped semi-urban and rural regions as millennials become the main driving force of the mass market. Technological adaption is steep which has, in turn, created acceptance for new financial tools”.

“The biggest beneficiary of this change is the credit market, which is evolving into a self-generating and self-sustaining one. In line with this trend, the risk appetite of traditionally conservative lenders is growing as the horizon of creditworthiness expands. With its array of innovative solutions that help businesses in credit evaluation, smarter lending decisions and safeguarding themselves and their customers from fraud, Experian is at the forefront and one of the main enablers of this shift,” he added.

Domestic credit growth

The country’s domestic credit growth has averaged 15.1 per cent from March 2000 to March 2021, primarily driven by retail loans and increasing penetration of credit cards. The consumer credit market continues to expand at a rate higher than most other major economies globally, with 22 million Indians applying for new credits every month.

The recovery of personal loans has been high in both low (less than Rs 1 lakh) and high (higher than Rs 5 lakh) ticket-size segments, while the recovery in higher ticket-size loans is also improving steadily.

The credit portfolio has been resilient in February 2021, and growth stood at 8 per cent year-on-year for the portfolio of key products, lower than the 13 per cent observed for March 2020. However, the pace of growth slowed down for all products with unsecured products experiencing a faster year-on-year growth rate compared to secured loans.

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