SBI Report, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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People may be holding as much as Rs. 3.3 lakh crores in cash for emergency purposes due to the Covid related dislocation in their income expectations, estimates SBI. The rise in cash to GDP ratio may be misleading due to this factor. If one adjusts for the emergency, the cash to GDP ratio may be lower than the pre-demonetisation level.

“Our estimate also shows that because of the pandemic people may have been holding as much as Rs 3.3 lakh crores in cash for precautionary motive beginning FY21″ said SBI Research team’s report titled “A Guide to Formalisation of Economy since FY18”.It adds that “If we adjust for such currency transactions, the currency to GDP ratio for pure payment purposes may have actually declined in FY21 compared to earlier years.”

The formalization efforts are bearing major fruit in terms of currency /GDP ratio. The research report by the country’s largest lender estimates that without pandemic GDP collapse, CIC/GDP ratio would have been 12.7% in FY21, as against 12.4% in FY11.

Indian consumers are migrating to high end technology platforms like UPI- Unified payments interface- that does not require the intervention of a POS or a point of sale machine and factor authentications: UPI transactions have jumped 70 times in last 4 years.

Latest currency in circulation data reveals that it has remained constant over the previous year even as record purchases happened during Diwali at Rs 1.25 lakh crores. The latest RBI data show that currency in circulation rose Rs 43,892 crore during the festival weekend, almost the same as the previous year’s Diwali week when the festival spends were lacklustre. “This happened for the first time since 2014” said S K Ghosh, SBI’s group chief economic advisor, who has authored the report.

“Indian consumers now prefer convenience in payments through the click of a button. The vast quantity of information that is produced as a passive by-product of the use of such UPI transactions holds a great promise as a transformative resource for real time policy and evidence based policy making” Ghosh said.

As this would need use of huge swaths of data and use of artificial intellegence by banks, the report recommends scaling up of large investment in cloud platforms by banks. “This might also necessitate regulatory interventions of both Central Banks and Government so that database can be harnessed and stored and also used for real time policy making” Ghosh said.



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Cash is still ‘King’ as digital divide between Bharat and India continues

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The demand for currency, which has seen a steady surge with the onset of festival season this month, has once again proved that cash is king as the digital divide between Bharat and India still remains startling.

Cash in circulation (CIC) increased by ₹11,115 crore in the week-ended October 15 to ₹29,25,263 crore against ₹29,14,148 crore logged on October 8, as per the latest RBI weekly statistics report.

The CIC is up nine per cent at ₹29,25,263 crore till October 15 this year compared to ₹26,79,937 crore logged in October 16, 2020.

In fact, currency with the public has increased by ₹63,103 crore to ₹28,14,931 crore as of September 24 against ₹27,51,828 crore as of March-end, as per RBI data.

Historically, the cash in circulation to GDP was between 10-12 per cent till FY20. However, post the Covid breakout and increase of cash in the ecosystem, CIC to GDP has inched up to 15 per cent in FY22 and is expected to remain elevated at 14 per cent by FY25.

Rise in cash requirement

The CMS Cash Index shows significant increases of cash requirement in the economy with the onset of festive season as has been happening in the past three years since 2018. CMS Cash Index shows a jump of 9-19 per cent in cash in the last three years. Rajiv Kaul, Chief Executive Officer, CMS Info Systems, one of the largest cash management companies said cash in India continues to be the dominant medium of transactions, across regions and income groups.

He said that in FY21, the CMS network moved over ₹9.15 lakh crore in currency through over 63,000 ATMs that the company replenishes and over 40,000 retail and enterprise chains, whose cash payments the company collects, processes and banks every day.

Demand for cash is expected to intensify in the coming weeks and during Diwali. Historically, during festival season, the cash demand remains high as large number of merchants still depend on cash payments for end-to-end transactions.

Cash remains a major mode of transaction with about 15 crore people yet to have a bank account. Moreover, 90 per cent of e-commerce transactions use cash as a mode of payment in tier four cities compared to 50 per cent in tier one cities.

Sanjay Mehta, CEO, Amol Readymade said though online payments at shops have increased, many customers shopping worth higher amounts still prefer to pay in cash for reasons best known to them.

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Strengthen systems to monitor availability of cash, RBI to banks, White Label ATM operators

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The Reserve Bank of India has asked banks and White Label ATM Operators (WLAOs) to strengthen their systems to monitor availability of cash in ATMs and ensure timely replenishment to avoid cash-outs, failing which monetary penalty will be imposed on them.

‘Scheme of penalty’

In this regard, RBI has come out with a “Scheme of Penalty for non-replenishment of ATMs”, which will be effective from October 1, 2021. Cash-out (when the customer is not able to withdraw cash due to non-availability of cash in a particular ATM) at any ATM of more than ten hours in a month will attract a flat penalty of ₹10,000 per ATM.

In case of White Label ATMs (WLAs), the penalty would be charged to the bank which is meeting the cash requirement of that particular WLA. The bank may, at its discretion, recover the penalty from the WLA operator.

The scheme has been formulated following a review of downtime of ATMs due to cash-outs. RBI said it was observed that ATM operations affected by cash-outs lead to non-availability of cash and cause avoidable inconvenience to the members of the public. RBI said, Banks have to submit system generated statement on downtime of ATMs due to non-replenishment of cash to the Issue Department of RBI under whose jurisdiction these ATMs are located.

In the case of WLAOs, the banks which are meeting their cash requirement will furnish a separate statement on behalf of WLAOs on cash-out of such ATMs due to non-replenishment of cash.

As the intention of the Scheme is to ensure replenishment of ATMs in time, RBI said appeals would be considered only in cases of genuine reasons beyond the control of bank/ WLAOs such as, imposition of lockdown by the State/ Administrative authorities, strike, etc.

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ATM usage to cost more

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has accepted the long-standing demand of banks and White Label ATM operators (WLAO) for a hike in interchange fee in view of increasing cost of ATM deployment and maintenance.

This could encourage deployment of ATMs, which has hit the slow lane in the last one year amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The interchange fee (which is recovered by banks owning ATMs from card issuing banks for providing) has been upped from ₹15 to ₹17 per financial transaction and from ₹5 to ₹6 per non-financial transaction in all centres. The new fee will be effective from August 1.

Customer charges

Simultaneously, to compensate Banks for the higher interchange fee and given the general escalation in costs, they have been allowed to increase the customer charges for transactions beyond the stipulated free monthly ATM transactions to ₹21 per transaction from ₹20. This increase will be effective from January 1, 2022.

Customers are eligible for five free transactions (inclusive of financial and non-financial transactions) every month from their own bank ATMs. In other bank ATMs they are allowed three transactions in metro centres and five in non-metro centres.

RBI, in a circular, said applicable taxes, if any, will be additionally payable on the interchange fee and customer charges. The central bank added that its instructions also apply, mutatis mutandis (with the necessary changes having been made), to transactions done at Cash Recycler Machines (other than for cash deposit transactions).

ATM additions declined to 2,815 in FY21 against 8,564 in the previous year. The number of ATMs across the country is 2.13 lakh (2.10 lakh.)

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Indians prefer digital swipe, but keep cash handy amid Covid, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Digital modes of payment have soared manifold since the demonetisation in late 2016, but cash too has kept pace, more so during the Covid pandemic.

Digital transactions have grown at a CAGR of 66.4% to 40.1 billion transactions in FY20 from 3.1 billion transactions in FY15, as per the Reserve Bank of India data. The average daily digital transactions in India in January 2021 were at 142.6 million, up from 8.6 million in 2015.

Interestingly, the currency in circulation is also at its highest in a decade, as people prefer cash storage in anticipation of medical emergencies amid restrictions in movements.

Cash conundrum

From 12% of the GDP in FY16, currency usage slumped to 8% in FY17 following demonetisation and has been gradually rising since.

Currency in circulation rose 17% ( year-on-year) to Rs 28.6 lakh crore by end-March 2021, compared with 14% at the end of the previous fiscal year, the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed. Cash in the system further increased to Rs 29.4 lakh crore as of May 7.

Withdrawal of benefit payouts and subsidies from Jan Dhan accounts, better agriculture output and farm-gate receipts are among the various factors attributed for the cash shortage.

Digital transactions

Digital transactions have grown at a CAGR of 66.4% to 40.1 billion transactions in FY20 from 3.1 billion transactions in FY15, as per central bank data. The average daily digital transactions in India in January 2021 were at 142.6 million, up from 8.6 million in 2015.

The growth of digital payments slowed in April 2021 over March, remained higher than in February, according to a report.

The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions dropped from the Rs 5­ lakh crore peak in March to Rs 4.93 lakh crore via 264 crore transactions.

The Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) saw 32.29 crore transactions worth Rs 2.99­lakh crore in April as against 36.31 crore transactions of Rs 3.27 lakh crore in March.

Bharat Bill pay platform processed 3.51 crore transactions worth ₹Rs 5,201.92 crore in April as against 3.52 crore payments amounting to Rs 5,195.76 crore in March.

As the movement of people and goods slowed, the FASTags, AePS transactions through the NETC saw a sharp decline in April at 16.43 crore transactions worth Rs 2,776.9 crore. It was 19.32 crore transactions worth Rs 3,086.32 crore in March.

The Aadhaar enabled Payment System saw 7.42 crore transactions valued at Rs 22,139.05 crore in April as against 7.78 crore payments worth Rs 22,697.82 crore in March.



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Fintech will be the silver bullet for growth in 2021

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The fintech sector has facilitated business growth during the pandemic. What seemed like an option in 2019, has become an imperative.

There has been a clear shift of digital payments from a nice idea to an essential service. Consumers started using digital payments for groceries, utility payments, etc and now it has become a preferred mode for all their transactions.

This has been propelled by two factors — convenience and the fear of infection which comes with managing cash. Our conversations with consumers indicate that this trend will continue in the post-Covid world as well. Another interesting trend that we have seen is the use of digital payments by what we call the Silver Tech generation — people in the age group of 50-70 years.

Exediting the adoption

According to IBM’s US Retail Index, the pandemic has accelerated the move from storefronts to e-commerce by five years. The ripple effect of e-commerce has fuelled fintech adoption rates. The mobile payments in India are said to grow by ~ 60 per cent by FY 2022.

As nations plan for the next normal, what should businesses be thinking about to succeed in 2021?

Although consumption continues to be low across economies, consumer spending on e-commerce platforms tell a different story. In October, e-commerce sales in India jumped to $ 4.1 billion – across the sale and festive days announced by e-commerce majors – up by $ 2.7 billion a year ago. This indicates green shoots of recovery in consumption.

Livestreaming

The new record set can be attributed to the convenience and safety of shopping from home. Another driver could be that brands and retailers who livestream or use modern technologies such as augmented reality (AI), appear to have a competitive edge, resonating strongly with their customers.

The hesitancy to handle cash will force the adoption of contactless and digital payments as the preferred transaction method both offline and online. In Q3, we saw 15.2 million new active accounts – our second highest quarter in organic user growth, coupled with 1.5 million new merchants come onboard – twice our usual rate in a quarter.

Consumer trust in e-commerce intensifies amidst pandemic

Salesforce’s State of the Connected Customer research report also found that consumers now spend 60 per cent of their time interacting with companies online compared to 42 per cent before the pandemic. By incorporating the Online to Offline (O2O) model, which refers to services such as online information, discounts or services, member rebates, in-store pick-up of items purchased online, or the allowing of online purchases to be returned to physical stores, to their business strategies, companies can improve customer experience, service and loyalty. On the O2O model, we also expect consumers to opt for payment methods that act as a bridge between online and offline, such as digital wallets offering QR codes.

On an average, 88 per cent of shopping carts globally are abandoned, with one of the most common reasons attributed to complex checkout processes.

For businesses looking to keep and grow their customer base in this competitive environment, a simpler, faster, more intuitive checkout process with seamless and safe payment options is critical.

India attracted $2.7 billion in fintech investment in 2020: KPMG

Building trust

This accelerated digital and e-commerce growth, unfortunately, has drawn unwanted attention from bad actors exploiting vulnerabilities for nefarious purposes. Email scams related to Covid-19 have surged in recent times. They will probably continue as scammers push our psychological buttons to acquire our personal and financial information.

With the changing times, consumer preferences have evolved. Retailers now need to review their business models to align to a new normal, where digital DNA will drive growth.

The author is Senior Vice-President, Europe and Australia Enterprise and Growth Markets, Paypal

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