Bitcoin ruling roils crypto world seeking regulatory clarity, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Vildana Hajric and Yakob Peterseil

International banking regulators’ decision to classify Bitcoin as the riskiest of assets dragged cryptocurrencies further into the mainstream financial world.

It also made it extremely costly for banks to hold digital tokens on their balance sheets, potentially delaying crypto’s wider adoption.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed that a 1,250 per cent risk weight be applied to a bank’s exposure to Bitcoin and certain other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped on the announcement, then erased the gains. It was trading around $36,200 as of 10:30 a.m. in Hong Kong on Friday.

“The only consistency has been the volatility — it’s been big spikes, tons of enthusiasm, followed by big selloffs,” Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., said of Bitcoin’s moves. “If you believe in it you’re probably to stomach the volatility, but if you’re just in it because it seems like the hot way to get a quick buck, that volatility is going to be hard to deal with.”

The ruling sparked a bevy of reactions across Wall Street and other financial centers worldwide. Here’s a sampling:

Luke Sully, CEO at treasury technology specialist Ledgermatic:
“It’s a piece of news that both advocates and critics of Bitcoin will declare as a win. It demonstrates that Bitcoin is now a recognized asset class with risk management parameters for the banks, but these same parameters could be a potential deterrent given the onerous capital requirements that may make it an unpalatable business,” he said. “There are a few underlying assumptions in this risk weighting, the most obvious being that the price may go to zero and investors could lose their full allocation. The capital requirements don’t protect the banks clients from transaction, settlement and FX volatility either.”

David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital, a crypto hedge fund:
To me, this whole thing, along with the IMF, is just a way for those entities to get involved in the conversation. In terms of putting these requirements it’s going to go ahead, and at least for now, take traditional banks that are traditional regulated by these regulatory entities essentially out of this game and that will allow for more and more alternative players, who are not regulated, to go ahead and to pull further ahead,” he said. “A regulator has very little upside and enormous downside — it’s like being a policeman. You want to protect people. So the furthest you can go in terms of lodging measures that stop activity, the better. And so, I think that they are for the first time inserting themselves. This certainly does not mean the end of cryptocurrency, the end of Bitcoin.”

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex:
“I don’t think these things are good or bad themselves — it depends on what the objective is,” he said. “It’s not decentralized, it’s highly concentrated. Crypto was born in an age in which we had very extreme disparities of wealth and income — how can it not reflect that? The bulk of Bitcoin that’s owned by wallets have more than 100 Bitcoins, that’s more than $300,000 — how many Americans have $300,000 to put into crypto as opposed to retirement money?”

Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co.:
“Obviously tougher capital requirements cause banks to have more capital on hand — that can have an impact on their earnings. The committee is saying because of risks involved — cryptocurrencies are very volatile — you have to have more capital on hand to protect against declines,” he said. “If it’s going to cost banks more to hold these cryptocurrencies on their books, they’re theoretically going to be less likely to hold the same kind of size as they otherwise would.”

Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said in a Bloomberg TV interview with Matt Miller:
“It is getting hammered, but you know what? It’s getting treated like any other higher-risk asset like subprime loans, or CDOs, or derivatives, or structured products. And it is a new product. It’s untested through economic cycles. It’s untested through liquidity.”



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Beware! A bear market wave is about to hit Bitcoin, warns JPMorgan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Eric Lam and Joanna Ossinger

Bitcoin’s recent bounce has yet to dispel doubts about its vulnerability.

The cryptocurrency has jumped 10% over two days and was trading at $36,993 as of 9 a.m. in London on Thursday. While the momentum may cheer bulls, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team said backwardation in the futures market — where the spot price is above futures prices — is a reason for caution.

“We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market,” JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin’s relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break Bitcoin from a $30,000 to $40,000 range that’s been in place since a collapse from a record of almost $65,000 in April. Public criticism of the digital currency’s energy needs by tycoon Elon Musk and a Chinese regulatory crackdown are among obstacles. Bulls got a bit of a lift Wednesday after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender.

The virtual currency “needs to push into $39,460 and the top of the recent range to really attract, but we will need to see a break here for the bulls to feel we’re out of this period of vulnerability,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty, wrote in a note Thursday.

The June 9 analysis from JPMorgan looked at the 21-day rolling average of the 2nd Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices. The backwardation this showed is an “unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors” who use contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when the cryptocurrency fell 74% after a spectacular boom, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market value is 42% currently, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year, according to data from tracker CoinGecko. For some analysts, that’s in part a sign of retail-driven investor froth lifting other coins.

Bitcoin’s share may need to top 50% to make it easier to argue the current bear market is over, the JPMorgan strategists said.



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Industry watchers, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Samuel Shen & Andrew Galbraith

Shanghai: China‘s latest salvo against cryptocurrencies has driven a brutal selloff in bitcoin markets but retail traders, miners and even crypto finance firms reckon Beijing’s bark is louder than its bite.

China extending its crypto ban to include banks and payments companies offering crypto-related services furthered a selloff that briefly wiped $1 trillion off crypto market capitalisation.

But fears that the rules would cripple cryptocurrency markets and mining on the Chinese mainland appear baseless. Cryptocurrencies could still be bought from China on Thursday and investment schemes promising juicy returns for mining them remained operational.

Bobby Lee, founder and chief executive officer of Ballet, a cryptocurrency wallet app, said he thought the announcement was merely an attempt by regulators to protect retail investors from volatile markets, but that it would be a challenge for banks to identify crypto-related dealings.

“If you look at the banking activity in China, millions or maybe billions of transactions happen on a daily basis. From all that…how many are actually really crypto services versus dining or e-commerce? It’s almost unknowable,” said Lee, formerly CEO of BTC China, China’s first bitcoin exchange.

It’s not the first time China has banned crypto-related financial and payment services. Beijing issued similar bans in 2013, and in 2017, though the latest one has expanded the range of prohibited services. The repeated bans highlight the challenge of closing the loopholes.

On Thursday, Reuters found it was still possible for Chinese individuals to buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and trade them on overseas crypto exchanges such as Binance. Yuan payments for these purchases could be made via banks or commonly-used online payment platforms in over-the-counter (OTC) markets.

“If you have bitcoin or ethereum, and I want to buy some, I can just send money to you through banks. Just don’t write down anything like bitcoin or ethereum,” said Mr Li, who sells cryptocurrencies on behalf of miners.

“Of course, banks have internal risk-management. If the transaction volume is too big, you might be caught,” said Li, who was unwilling to give his full name because of the sensitivities of the issue.

Miners Undaunted

Players in China’s crypto mining industry were also broadly unfazed by the latest crackdown, again citing the difficulties regulators would have in identifying transactions.

China-based miners have the opposite problem to investors, as they already have bitcoin which they need to change for yuan to pay their electricity costs.

Mining is big business in China, which accounts for as much as 70% of the world’s crypto supply, according to some estimates, although others say that proportion has come down in recent years.

“The Chinese government does crack down from time to time, but currently it is not overly challenging to convert mined coins to RMB for Chinese miners,” said Thomas Heller, chief business officer of Compass Mining, using another word for China’s currency.

Although the new China crypto ban curtails cryptocurrency-related investment products, such schemes are still sold online. One platform offering retail investors a chance to quadruple their money over three years by buying computing power for miners of a smaller cryptocurrency, Filecoin, which has surged in popularity in China, still seemed to be accepting money on Thursday.

Flex Yang, chief executive officer of Babel Finance, a cryptocurrency financing firm, remained bullish. “Bitcoin prices dropped more than 50% last year in March but eventually rebounded back to a new record high,” Yang said. “In the long run, bitcoin still makes for an excellent asset class for portfolio managers seeking growth.”

Reuters’ Kevin Yao in Beijing contributed to this story.



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Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment, technicals show, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Vildana Hajric and Lu Wang

Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment following a recent bout of selling, according to technical analysis.
Though the cryptocurrency has rebounded above its average price over the past 100 days, it’s still trading below its 50-day moving average. Such a dynamic typically indicates an asset is nearing an inflection point.

If Bitcoin can’t overtake its 50-day mean — which currently sits at about $57,000 — then it might be in for a period of volatility as the gap between the two trend lines converges. Technical indicators suggest breaking out might not be an easy feat — Bitcoin failed to do so on several occasions last week.

Trading in the world’s largest digital asset has been choppy in recent days after it hit a record high in mid-April above $64,000. It’s down more than 15% since then, though it rebounded earlier this week amid positive news, including comments from Tesla Inc.’s chief financial officer that reiterated the company’s commitment to the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment, technicals show
“The drastic — relative to what we’ve seen of late — pullback certainly was a point of eyebrows being raised, but at the end of the day, I think the fact that things were able to rebound and stabilize is a good thing,” said David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital. “It shows real power to the token, the staying power to the asset class.”

The coin fell 1.4% on Wednesday following an announcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will delay a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It was at about $54,586 as of 9:43 a.m. in Hong Kong Thursday.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that if the stock market continues its advance, he expected Bitcoin to follow.

Despite its recent turbulence, Bitcoin is still up 511% over the past year. Inflation and central bank policies have been its biggest drivers during the past 12 months, according to Quant Insight, a London-based analytics research firm that studies the relationship between assets and macro factors.

Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment, technicals show
While some dispute the idea that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge, the argument has been a key tenet for its bullish thesis and rings true for a lot of crypto fans. Proponents have seized on the money-printing narrative to promote the notion that Bitcoin is a store of wealth, an explanation that’s gained traction in recent months with economists expecting price pressures to pick up.

“No question about it — what drives a big chunk of the interest in Bitcoin has been just the tremendous amount of money that has been printed and will be printed and really the fundamental thought that you cannot have that much money in the system and not have it be inflationary,” said Chuck Cumello, president and chief executive officer of Essex Financial Services.



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Investors decode crypto’s massive slump, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Bitcoin has rewarded investors with massive gains all year, but now the cryptocurrency’s famous volatility is back.

The token plunged below $50,000 in Friday trading for its worst week in almost two months as a proposed tax hike for wealthy Americans intensifies an industry selloff.

While the digital token is known for its big price swings, this latest bout has been particularly head-spinning after the all-time high notched on April 14.

Still, talk to investors and analysts and many will say it was a long time coming — with last week’s rally in the satirical Dogecoin and the eye-watering valuation for Coinbase Global Inc. clear signs of market froth.

Here’s what market players are saying about the crypto slump. Comments have been edited and condensed.

Ulrik Lykke, executive director at crypto hedge fund ARK36
“Throughout April, the markets have been slightly overheated due to a large number of margin and leveraged traders. This caused a runup and the correction was only to be expected. In addition, traders’ anxiety and the overall emotional nature of the crypto markets also may have played a role.

“Notably, though, the price of Bitcoin fell only 25% from the recent all-time high and there are reasons to believe the overall trend will remain bullish unless the price drops below $40,000.”

Felix Dian, founder of crypto investment fund MVPQ Capital
“Looking at the previous bull cycle (2016/17), there have been quite a few occurrences when Bitcoin loses momentum and dips below the 100-day moving average. This one was overdue.

“We are actually seeing record subscriptions into our fund this month, from institutional family offices, with many willing to use this as an opportunity to add. Ultimately, strong hands buying will meet the lack of available liquid supply of Bitcoin, triggering a squeeze and further down the road a new retail FOMO wave.”

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA
“The threat of regulation, either directly in developed markets or indirectly via the taxman, has always been crypto’s Achilles’s heel.

“Hopefully, we will hear as many ‘experts’ saying this is a sign of Bitcoin becoming a ‘maturing mainstream asset’ if it falls 10% this weekend, as we do when it rises, or a crypto-exchange chooses to IPO. In the meantime, don’t hate me for being bearish Bitcoin in the near term.”

Nikolaos Panitgirtzoglou, strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co
“Institutional demand has indeed slowed. I’m not sure what could trigger a re-acceleration of institutional demand. You either need a big announcement like Tesla or simply a correction and clearing of retail froth to incentivise institutional investors to re-enter the market.”

Philip Gradwell, chief economist of Chainalysis, a crypto reasearch firm
“The Coinbase listing was the end of the beginning for crypto. So what do such price movements in the first week of a new phase mean? To be honest, I don’t think they mean that much.

“Prices are still historically high and the fall over the weekend appears to have been a fairly standard reversal after peak prices, which was magnified by three factors. First, the liquidation of a record number of leveraged bets. Second, there had been a build up of Bitcoin on exchanges, which is typical when people are waiting to see if the price will continue to rise or reverse. When it reversed these holders likely rapidly sold. Third, all of this happened in an illiquid weekend market that appeared to have relatively few buyers.”



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Days after a record high, bitcoin plunges in biggest intraday drop since February, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Bitcoin plunged the most in more than seven weeks, just days after reaching a record.

The biggest crypto coin fell 10.1% to $54,743.57 as of 7:30 a.m. in New York on Sunday, after declining as much as 15.1% to $51,707.51 in the Asian day. Ether, the second-largest token, dropped almost 18% before paring losses.

Several online reports attributed the plunge to speculation the U.S. Treasury may crack down on money laundering that’s carried out through digital assets.

Bitcoin hit a record high of $64,869.78 last week ahead of the debut trade for the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. on the Nasdaq exchange Wednesday. Coinbase ended its first trading week on a high note after bullish reviews from Wall Street analysts.

Dogecoin, a token created as a joke and which has been boosted by the likes of Elon Musk and Mark Cuban, rallied more than 110% Friday before dropping the next day. Demand was so brisk for the token that investors trying to trade it on Robinhood crashed the site, the online exchange said in a blog post Friday.

“The crypto world is waking up with a bit of a sore head today,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo. “Dogecoin’s 100% Friday rally was ‘peak party,’ after the Bitcoin record and Coinbase listing earlier in the week. Euphoria was in the air. And usually in the crypto world, there’s a price to pay when that happens.”

Besides the “unsubstantiated” report of a U.S. Treasury crackdown, Trenchev said factors for the declines may have included “excess leverage, Coinbase insiders dumping equity after the direct listing and a mass outage in China’s Xinjiang province hitting Bitcoin miners.”

Growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies has spurred Bitcoin’s rally, as well as lifted other tokens to record highs. Interest in crypto went on the rise again after companies from PayPal to Square started enabling transactions in Bitcoin on their systems, and Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley began providing access to the tokens to some of the wealthiest clients. That’s despite lingering concerns over their volatility and usefulness as a method of payment.

Governments are inspecting risks around the sector more closely as the investor base widens.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said Bitcoin “is a little bit like gold” in that it’s more a vehicle for speculation than making payments. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in January took aim at Bitcoin’s role in facilitating criminal activity, saying the cryptocurrency has been enabling “funny business.”

Turkey’s central bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies as a form of payment from April 30, saying the level of anonymity behind the digital tokens brings the risk of “non-recoverable” losses. India will propose a law that bans cryptocurrencies and fines anyone trading or holding such assets, Reuters reported in March, citing an unidentified senior government official with direct knowledge of the plan.

Crypto firms are beefing up their top ranks to shape the emerging regulatory environment and tackle lingering skepticism about digital tokens. Bitcoin’s most ardent proponents see it as a modern-day store of value and inflation hedge, while others fear a speculative bubble is building.



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Shaktikanta Das: No difference of opinion between RBI and government on cryptocurrencies

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RBI had virtually banned cryptos back in 2018. (File image)

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor ShaktiKanta Das on Thursday said that there is no difference of opinion between the central bank and the government on cryptocurrencies in India. Comments from the RBI Governor have come against the backdrop of prevailing uncertainty around the future of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin India. While the RBI has retained its tough stance on alleged cryptocurrencies or crypto-related risks to financial stability and the credit system so far and had, in fact, virtually banned cryptos back in 2018, the government has seemed to be open to experiments around cryptos instead of an outright ban.

“I do not think there is any difference of opinion between the RBI and the Central government on cryptocurrencies,” Shaktikanta Das said at the India Economic Conclave. The Governor also said that both the RBI and the government are committed to financial stability and that RBI has flagged some ‘major concerns’ to the government on cryptocurrencies. However, “it is still under examination, the government will come out with a decision on it.” In February this as well, Das had told CNBC-TV18 that “we have major concerns from the financial stability angle” even as the RBI has been looking to launch a digital currency.

Also read: Bitcoin ban might trigger crypto firms to shift abroad, investors to transact on foreign exchanges: Expert

While the government is likely to introduce the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021 in the ongoing Parliament session to ban all ‘private’ cryptocurrencies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s at the recently held India Today Conclave had said that “while the RBI may take a call on official cryptocurrency but from our side, we are very clear that we are not shutting off all options.” Even as crypto startups had welcomed Sitharaman’s statement, a Reuters report days later, citing a senior government official, said that India will propose a law to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets.

Amid the confusion over the crypto ban, Aadhaar architect Nandan Nilekani on Monday had backed the use of crypto among people. “We should think of crypto as an asset class and allow people to have some crypto. Crypto as a transaction medium will not work as fast as UPI, which is targeting a billion transactions a day. However, crypto has enormous capital,” Nilekani had said in a Clubhouse session on Monday with Silicon Valley angel investor Balaji Srinivasan and Blume Ventures’ Managing Partner Karthik Reddy.

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Bitcoin snaps slide while leaving everyone in dark on true worth, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Eric Lam

Bitcoin steadied Tuesday after flirting with a bear market in a plunge that left investors grasping for clues about what lies ahead for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

The digital coin rose as much as 8% to about $36,600, but the move higher pales compared to the gyrations that took Bitcoin to an all-time high of nearly $42,000 on Jan. 8 before a precipitous slump over Sunday and Monday.

The latest bout of roller-coaster volatility recalls past boom and bust cycles including the 2017 bubble, and has investors debating whether this is a healthy correction or the end of the latest bull run for cryptocurrencies.

“We think a pull back is healthy,” said David Grider, lead digital strategist with Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, who added he doesn’t think the recent price action indicates that Bitcoin has already topped out.

Investors who bought the digital coin a year ago are still sitting on gains exceeding 300%. Pinpointing who is mainly responsible for the rally is one of the many crypto mysteries — Bitcoin funds, momentum chasers, billionaires, day traders, companies and even institutional investors have all been cited.
Just as hard is working out what caused the recent two-day drop of as much as 26%. For some, a bounce in the dollar may be among the reasons. The greenback has snapped a prolonged losing streak after rising U.S. government bond yields bolstered its allure.

“The dollar is showing strength,” said Vijay Ayyar, head of business development with crypto exchange Luno in Singapore.

Ayyar is monitoring what happens if the U.S. Dollar Index climbs to 92 from the current level of about 90. “If the dollar powers through that level then we may have seen a Bitcoin top at $40,000,” he said.

At the same time, the world remains awash with monetary and fiscal stimulus, and some of that wall of money could yet gravitate to crypto assets.

Bitcoin believers continue to tout the digital currency as a viable hedge for inflation risk and the potential debasement of fiat currencies. Some forecasts for its long-term price range from $146,000 to $400,000.

“As long as the world is flooded with money and safe assets offer poor compensation, Bitcoin will be relevant,” Howard Wang, co-founder of Convoy Investments LLC, wrote in a Jan. 10 note. “Volatility and asset bubbles will be a fact of life.”



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Bitcoin trades near Sunday record of $34,800 following 800% surge, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO: Bitcoin traded at $33,365 in Asia on Monday, after soaring to a record high of $34,800 on Sunday as investors continue to bet the digital currency is on its way to becoming a mainstream asset.

The latest milestone for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency came less than three weeks after it crossed $20,000 for the first time, on Dec. 16, and bitcoin has now surged some 800 per cent since mid-March.

With bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million, some see it as a hedge against the risk of inflation as governments and central banks turn on the stimulus taps in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Some also view it as a safe-haven play during the Covid-19 pandemic, akin to gold.

“Some of it is reflecting the fear of a weaker dollar,” Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim said of the most recent rally.

“It seems like people are preferring bitcoin as an expression of concern over currency debasement, relative to gold.”

Bitcoin’s advance also reflects increasing expectations it will become a mainstream payment method, with PayPal opening its network to cryptocurrencies.

The potential for quick gains has also attracted demand from larger US investors, as well as from traders who normally stick to equities.

“The rally gained even more momentum as insatiable investors continued trading from home” during the New Year holidays, said Dave Chapman, Executive Director at Hong Kong based digital asset company BC Group.

Institutional investors see the potential for greater risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional investments, he said.

Bitcoin trades on numerous exchanges, one of the largest of which is Coinbase, itself preparing to go public to become the first major US cryptocurrency exchange to list on Wall Street.

Multiple competitor cryptocurrencies use similar blockchain, or electronic ledger, technology. Ethereum, the second biggest, shot to a record $1,014 on Sunday.



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