India’s bank privatisation may be delayed: Fitch

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Contrary to recent media reports that the authorities are inclined to privatise a larger mid-sized and one small state-owned bank, Fitch believes the government prefers to privatise larger banks to maximise divestment inflows.

Global rating agency Fitch said on Monday that India’s plan to privatise two public-sector banks (PSBs) in FY22 could be delayed, as the “bold move” faces risk from political opposition and structural challenges, including heightened balance-sheet stress in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak. The pandemic is likely to keep banks’ performance subdued for the next two to three years, it added.

The plan, announced in the Budget in February, is part of the government’s broader divestment goals for FY22, and includes privatisation of several other non-financial state-owned entities as well as listing of insurance behemoth LIC. The government has set its overall disinvestment target for FY22 at Rs 1.75 lakh crore, about three-and-a-half of times the actual realisation last fiscal.

“Fitch believes that political support in favour of legislative changes to the Act, which are required in order to go through with the sale, could be a significant hurdle for the government. There could also be more resistance from the trade unions this time around, who will be against the safety-net withdrawal of state ownership,” it said in a statement. Success of the privatisation move would also require sufficient interest from investors willing to acquire large stakes in PSBs and run them, it added.

Anticipating risks to the privatisation move, Fitch, however, acknowledged the plan as an extension of the government’s broader agenda to reform the banking sector and reduce the number of PSBs further, which have come down from 27 in 2017 to 12 in 2020 after three successive rounds of consolidation.

Contrary to recent media reports that the authorities are inclined to privatise a larger mid-sized and one small state-owned bank, Fitch believes the government prefers to privatise larger banks to maximise divestment inflows.

“However, this will be challenging, since banks in this category – despite their wide reach and substantial franchises – have generally compromised financials, with impaired-loan ratios ranging between 9.8% and 16.3% and common equity Tier I ratios between 8.8% and 10.3% in (nine months of FY21),” it said. Investor interest might be especially muted for banks which are currently under the Reserve Bank of India’s prompt corrective framework and restricted from pursuing loan growth to higher-yielding borrowers and branch expansion.

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NITI Aayog to finalise names of 2 public sector banks for privatisation soon, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Government think-tank NITI Aayog, in consultation with the Finance Ministry, has started deliberations to finalise the names of two public sector banks that will be privatised in the current fiscal as part of the disinvestment process. NITI Aayog has been entrusted with the task of selection of names of two public sector banks and one general insurance company for the privatisation as announced in the Budget 2021-22.

The work in this respect is going on, sources said, adding, a couple of meetings have been convened by the NITI Aayog on the subject.

There are various aspects that have to be looked into including regulatory issues, HR management, financial health etc before reaching a conclusion, sources added.

Once NITI Aayog makes its recommendations, it will be vetted by the Core Group of Secretaries on Disinvestment headed by Cabinet Secretary.

The other members of the high-level panel are Economic Affairs Secretary, Revenue Secretary, Expenditure Secretary, Corporate Affairs Secretary, Secretary Legal Affairs, Secretary Department of Public Enterprises, Secretary Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) and the Secretary of administrative department.

Following clearance from the Core Group of Secretaries, the finalised names will go to Alternative Mechanism (AM) for its approval and eventually to the Cabinet headed by the Prime Minister for the final nod.

Changes on the regulatory side to facilitate privatisation would start after the Cabinet approval.

Last month, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said “interests of workers of banks which are likely to be privatised will absolutely be protected whether their salaries or scale or pension all will be taken care of.”

Explaining the rationale behind the privatisation, Sitharaman had said that banks in the country needed to be bigger, just like the State Bank of India (SBI).

“We need banks which are going to be able to scale up… We want banks that are going to be able to meet the aspirational needs of this country,” Sitharaman had said, adding that a lot of thought had gone behind the intention to privatise some public sector banks.

Meanwhile, banking sector regulator RBI also said it is in discussion with the government over the privatisation of public sector banks.

The government has budgeted Rs 1.75 lakh crore from stake sale in public sector companies and financial institutions, including 2 PSU banks and one insurance company, during the current financial year. The amount is lower than the record budgeted Rs 2.10 lakh crore to be raised from CPSE disinvestment in the last fiscal.



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Punjab & Sind Bank, BoM and BoI are likely privatisation candidates

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Lack of interest among potential buyers remains a key concern given the structure of these banks.

The market is betting on Punjab & Sind Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Bank of India as the likely candidates for the finance minister’s ambitious bank privatisation plan. In her Budget speech, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government planned to privatise two sate-run banks, other than IDBI Bank. Analysts believe that the likely candidates will be from the pool of banks which were not part of the merger process. The government had earlier allowed merger of 13 banks into five banks.

Anil Gupta – vice-president and sector head, financial sector ratings, ICRA, said Punjab and Sind Bank and Bank of Maharashtra looked probable candidates for privitisation. Of the six banks kept out of merger, Indian Overseas Bank, Central Bank and UCO Bank are under PCA (prompt-corrective action), he explained. The Reserve Bank of India had kept the three banks in the PCA framework after a massive asset quality deterioration, losses in the books and lower capital levels. Gupta said PCA banks were unlikely to be offered for privatisation due to poor investor demand.

Leaving State Bank of India and five merged banks, there are six public sector banks in the banking system. The six banks include Bank of India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Indian Overseas Bank (IoB), Central Bank of India and Uco Bank. Gupta also said the government was unlikely to consider privitisation of Bank of India due its large size. “The government may want to test the water with smaller banks first,” he added.

According to JM Financial, “While the details are awaited, we believe the most likely candidates will be from the pool of banks which were not part of consolidation. While these candidates are small and are not expected to provide any material resources to the government, we believe that this is a step in the right direction and can act as a test case for privatisation of other major public sector banks in future.”

In a note to its clients, Kotak Institutional Equities said the task of privatising two PSU banks may be difficult to achieve but could result in more privatisations, if successful. Lack of interest among potential buyers remains a key concern given the structure of these banks, Kotak said.

In an interview with CNN News 18, Niramala Sitharaman said the government wanted more public sector banks which are functionally strong, professionally managed and can meet the demands of growing aspirational India. “If I am going to be sitting around with such public sector banks which are just not in a mood or a position to stand up, is it right to pour tax-payers money into such banks? When there may be buyers who can buy and run it efficiently,” she said.

The government has proposed to introduce required legislative amendments for privatisation of two PSBs in the Budget session itself.

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