Gold inches lower on dollar uptick; focus on key central bank meetings, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, weighed down by an uptick in the dollar as investors eye upcoming key central bank meetings this week.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,805.96 per ounce by 0116 GMT. U.S. gold futures was flat at $1,806.60.

* On Monday, the metal rose nearly 1% to a high of $1,809.66, only about $4 shy of an over one-month peak scaled last week.

* The dollar rose 0.1% on Tuesday, recovering from a near one-month trough hit during the previous session. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. [USD/]

* Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were also a tad higher at 1.6431%, raising non-interest bearing gold’s opportunity cost. [US/]

* Market participants eye meetings from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. Neither of the central bank is likely to announce a change in policy, though the ECB might address how inflationary pressures could affect policy.

* The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are also set to meet next week.

* Bank of England interest rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro said she needed more time to judge how the end of the government’s job-saving furlough scheme was affecting the labour market, adding to signs that she sees no urgency to raise rates.

* Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, though reduced stimulus and interest rate hikes push government bond yields up, translating into a higher opportunity cost for holding bullion which pays no interest.

* Spot silver fell 0.1% to $24.53 per ounce. Platinum edged 0.1% down to $1,056.35 and palladium gained 0.2% to $2,055.16.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

1400 US Consumer Confidence Oct

1400 US New Home Sales-Units Sept

(Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)



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World shares dip as China growth disappoints, oil extends rally, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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World shares dipped on Monday after data showed slower-than-expected growth in China’s economy last quarter and surging oil prices fed inflation concerns.

Calls by China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday to make progress on a long-awaited property tax to help reduce wealth gaps also soured the mood.

An MSCI gauge of global stocks eased 0.2% by 1207 GMT as losses in Asia and Europe erased part of the gains seen last week on a strong start to the earnings season.

U.S. stock futures were also lower with S&P 500 and Nasdaq e-minis both down 0.3%.

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.9% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, its weakest pace since the third quarter of 2020.

The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with power shortages, supply bottlenecks, sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks and debt problems in its property sector.

Oil prices extended a recent rally amid a global energy shortage with U.S. crude touching a seven-year high and Brent a three-year peak.

Europe’s STOXX 600 equity benchmark index fell 0.7%, dragged by luxury stocks, which are heavily exposed to China, and some poor earning updates. [.EU]

Chinese blue chips fell 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.1%.

“The Chinese economy grew slower in the third quarter, mainly because of policy challenges and high base effects from last year,” said Iris Pang, economist at Dutch bank ING.

“We expect these two factors will continue to be in play for the fourth quarter, which means the slow growth of the Chinese economy will continue,” she added.

Investors also continued to worry about global inflation, which was being driven by the reopening of many economies after COVID-19 restrictions and supply chain issues, and prospects central banks will tighten policy sooner rather than later.

Kevin Boscher, CIO of Ravenscroft, said given the current climate they held more cash than usual in their portfolios.

“We remain optimistic on the longer-term outlook, but expect this volatility and uncertainty to persist for the next few weeks as we await more clarity on the outlook for global growth, inflation, China, U.S. policy and the Fed,” he said.

“For now, it makes sense to stay reasonably defensively positioned but I expect markets to eventually ‘climb the wall of worry’,” he added.

On Monday, data showed New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 2.2% in the third quarter, its biggest rise in over a decade, causing the local dollar to jump as much as 0.5% before changing course.

Some other currencies are also responding to rising inflation expectations, as investors increasingly bet central banks will have to raise rates.

The dollar rose 0.1% against a basket of peers to 94.04, in sight of a one-year high hit last Monday, as traders position themselves for a looming tapering of the Federal Reserve’s massive bond buying programme.

Sterling fell 0.1% against a stronger dollar but touched a 20-month high versus the euro after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey sent a fresh signal over the weekend that the central bank is gearing up to raise interest rates as inflation risks mount.

The yen meanwhile traded near its lowest in nearly three years against the dollar, as the Japanese central bank looked increasingly likely to trail behind other monetary authorities in terms of rate hikes.

On debt markets, global repricing of interest rate expectations pushed euro zone bond yields back towards recent multi-month highs. Germany’s 10-year Bund yields, the benchmark for the region, was up 3 basis points at -0.139%.

High energy costs are driving some of the inflation fears and Brent crude was last up 1% at $85.7 per barrel and U.S. crude up 1.3% to $83.6.

Gold fell 0.3% at $1,761 an ounce, after falling 1.5% on Friday as upbeat retail sales drove U.S. bond yields higher.

Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $60,747. It gained last week on hopes that U.S. regulators would allow a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund to trade.

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni and Alun John; editing by Jason Neely, William Maclean)



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Cryptocurrency crash ‘plausible’, rules needed, Bank of England’s Cunliffe says, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Huw Jones

LONDON -A collapse in cryptocurrencies is a “plausible scenario” and rules are needed to regulate the fast-growing sector as a “matter of urgency”, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said on Wednesday.

Risks to financial stability from the application of crypto technologies are currently limited, but there are a number of “very good reasons” to think that this might not be the case for very much longer, Cunliffe said.

“Regulators internationally and in many jurisdictions have begun the work. It needs to be pursued as a matter of urgency,” Cunliffe said in a speech to the SIBOS conference.

Largely unregulated cryptoassets have grown by 200% so far this year, from just under $800 billion to $2.3 trillion, with 95% of them, including bitcoin, unbacked by any asset or fiat currency, Cunliffe said.

“But as the financial crisis showed us, you don’t have to account for a large proportion of the financial sector to trigger financial stability problems – sub-prime was valued at around $1.2 trillion in 2008,” Cunliffe said, referring to a corner of the U.S. mortgage market whose collapse led to a global banking crisis.

“Such a collapse is certainly a plausible scenario, given the lack of intrinsic value and consequent price volatility, the probability of contagion between cryptoassets, the cyber and operational vulnerabilities, and of course, the power of herd behaviour,” Cunliffe said.

Connections between cryptocurrencies and the traditional financial system are also growing as big investors, hedge funds and banks become more involved, Cunliffe said.

Unregulated, decentralised finance or DeFi, which delivers financial services like credit on the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies, presents “pronounced” challenges given the absence of investor protection and the BoE has begun work on how such risks can be managed, he added.

Last week, global regulators proposed that the safeguards they apply to systemic clearing houses and payment systems should also be applied to stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency typically backed by an asset or fiat currency, but they only make up 5% of cryptoassets.

Cunliffe, who helped to lead the work on the safeguards, said it took two years to draft this measure, during which stablecoins have grown 16-fold.

“Indeed, bringing the crypto world effectively within the regulatory perimeter will help ensure that the potentially very large benefits of the application of this technology to finance can flourish in a sustainable way,” he added.

(Reporting by Huw JonesEditing by David Goodman, Gareth Jones and Nick Macfie)



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Bank of England targets ‘failures’ in banks’ trading books, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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By Huw Jones

Banks must show from 2025 how their trading operations could be shut down in a crisis without spreading contagion across markets, the Bank of England proposed on Friday.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008-09, banks must have plans vetted by regulators showing how collapsing operations could be shut down or transferred without destabilising markets or the need for taxpayer bail-outs.

The proposals set out on Friday go further with more granular demands regarding trading books loaded with stocks, bonds and derivatives worth billions of pounds.

Following a public consultation, the BoE will publish final policy changes in the first half of 2022 which banks will have to implement by January 2025.

The BoE said its Prudential Regulation Authority carried out exercises between 2014 and 2021 which demonstrated that firms lack the full capabilities required to carry out an orderly wind-down of their trading activities.

“The PRA considers this lack of capabilities to be a market failure, posing risks to the PRA’s safety and soundness objective, and has therefore decided to clarify its expectations in this area,” the BoE said.

“For the largest firms, the destruction of trading book asset value in a disorderly wind-down risks impacting UK financial stability, due to the scale and interconnectivity of their trading activities.”

Applying the proposed new rules would mean a one-off cost of 12 million pounds ($16.35 million) as banks may have to restructure operations to make the plans workable. Annual maintenance costs would be 2.5 million pounds, the BoE said.

Regulators are under pressure from industry and some lawmakers to ease rules on banks to maintain the City of London as a global financial centre after being cut off from the European Union by Brexit.

The BoE said its proposals were in line with a requirement to have regard to competitiveness as they reinforce market resilience.

“This would help to ensure that the UK remains an attractive domicile for internationally active financial institutions, and that London retains its position as a leading international financial centre,” the BoE said.

($1 = 0.7339 pounds) (Editing by Mark Heinrich)



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Bank of England urges banks to wait out EU pressure over euro clearing, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Banks should hold their nerve in the face of European Union pressure to shift euro derivatives clearing from London to the bloc, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday.

Since Britain fully left the EU last December, the bloc has asked banks to move euro clearing from London, which accounts for the bulk of activity, to Frankfurt.

So far, banks and their customers have put on a united front against relocating clearing, saying it would bump up costs by splitting markets.

Bailey said banks were waiting rather than shifting euro positions as a June 2022 deadline looms when temporary permission for London clearers to serve EU customers ends.

“The right thing to do is to wait for the moment. The cost of moving and fragmenting are too large,” Bailey told a Bloomberg event.

“While waiting is sensible from the point of view of the banks, it puts the responsibility on the authorities to sort the thing out,” Bailey said.

However, negotiations with the EU at the present time have not been particularly intense, but the BoE was happy to give EU regulators the assurances they need, he said.

“If they want to take a decision to break the system up, then it’s important to consider the risks to financial stability that come with fragmentation.”

Clearers in the United States already have EU permission to serve customers in the bloc.

“We could see some clearing of euro instruments switch to New York from London if this does not get sorted out,” NatWest bank chairman Howard Davies told the same event.



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Survey, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Banks are taking steps to mitigate risks from their increasing use of external cloud computing services, a survey by Harris Poll and Google Cloud said on Thursday.

The Bank of England and the Bank of France have expressed concerns about a lack of transparency in how banks rely on a “concentrated” number of outside cloud computing providers like Google, Microsoft and Amazon which are beyond the arm of the regulators.

Regulators are worried that reliance by many banks on the same providers could create systemic risk if one of the cloud companies were to go down.

The survey of 1,300 leaders in financial services from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Britain, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Australia showed that 83% were using the cloud as part of their primary computing infrastructure.

The bulk of the companies are also considering adopting a multicloud strategy, the survey said, which would allow a bank to switch to an alternative provider if there is an outage to avoid an interruption of services for customers.

“Based on the Harris survey, it is clear that financial institutions are taking actions to solve concentration or vendor lock-in concerns with 88% of respondents not currently using a multicloud strategy considering doing so in the next 12 months,” Adrian Poole, director for financial services in Britain and Ireland for Google Cloud, said.



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RBI, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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MUMBAI: The country’s foreign exchange reserves surged to $576.98 billion as on March 31, 2021 from $544.69 billion at September-end last year, an RBI report said.

Foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, increased to $536.693 billion as at March-end 2021 from $502.162 billion, the report noted.

On balance of payments basis (excluding valuation changes), foreign exchange reserves increased by $83.9 billion during April-December 2020 as compared with $40.7 billion in the year-ago period, it said.

Foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms (including valuation changes) increased by $108 billion during April-December 2020 as against $47 billion in the corresponding period of 2019-20.

At the end of December 2020, the foreign exchange reserves cover of imports increased to 18.6 months from 17.1 months at September-end 2020, RBI said in its report on management of foreign exchange reserves — October 2020-March 2021, released on Wednesday.

The net forward asset (receivable) of the Reserve Bank in the domestic foreign exchange market stood at $68.2 billion as at March-end 2021.

As on March 31, 2021, the Reserve Bank held 695.31 metric tonnes of gold.

“While 403.01 metric tonnes of gold is held overseas in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), 292.30 tonnes of gold is held domestically,” the report said.

In value terms (USD), the share of gold in the total foreign exchange reserves decreased from about 6.69 per cent as at September-end 2020 to about 5.87 per cent as on March 31, 2021. Gold reserves stood at $33.88 billion at end-March 2021 as against $36.429 billion by September 2020, the report said.



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US dollar rises as caution reigns ahead of key central bank meetings, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW YORK: The dollar gained for a third straight session on Monday, as traders cut their bearish bets on the greenback to four-month lows amid the recent rise in US Treasury yields and grew cautious ahead of key global central bank meetings.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all set to meet this week and will likely set the tone as to where global rates are headed.

US Treasury yields, however, were lower on Monday in line with Europe, ahead of these central bank gatherings. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields traded as high at 1.639% on Monday, close to Friday’s top of 1.6420%, a level last seen in February 2020.

Gains in the greenback were more pronounced against low-yielding currencies such as the euro and the British pound while high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar fared relatively better.

“The US dollar has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in recent weeks reflecting a shift in expectations regarding Fed interest rate policy,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist, at Rabobank in a research note.

“Since the reflation trade is centered around US fiscal policy and growth expectations, the US dollar could prove to be more resilient than the consensus had been expecting at the start of the year.”

Rising US yields have lifted the greenback 2% so far this year thanks to widening interest rate differentials relative to other major bond markets. The dollar declined more than 4% in the last quarter of 2020.

In mid-morning trading, the dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, was up 0.2% at 91.68 . It hit a late November 2020 high of 92.51 last week.

The US currency has been supported by declining bets for its decline, with speculators cutting net short positions to the lowest since mid-November in the week ended March 9.

Rising bond yields will continue to focus minds this week before a Fed meeting at which some analysts expect policymakers to strike an optimistic tone on the US economy.

While there are some expectations that the Fed might try to calm bond markets – yields have risen some 60 basis points since the last Fed meeting – the consensus view is Fed Chief Jerome Powell will not make changes to policy.

“The Fed is not expected to tinker with its monetary policy but instead communicate via forecasts that the situation is under control and that markets are running way ahead of themselves,” SEB analysts said in a note.

The greenback rose 0.2% against the yen to 109.19, after earlier climbing to 109.36 yen, the highest since June 2020.

The euro weakened 0.3% to $1.1920 after rising last week for the first time in three weeks as latest data showed hedge funds slashed their net euro positions.

The Australian dollar – viewed widely as a liquid proxy for risk appetite – fell 0.4% to US$0.7725, extending Friday’s Loss.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, weakened 3.3% after surging to a record high of $61,781.83 over the weekend.



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Five things shaping Britain’s financial rulebooks after Brexit, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Britain is conducting a review of its financial rulebooks and policies to see how it can keep its 130 billion pound ($184 billion) finance sector competitive after Brexit left it largely cut off from the European Union.

The government is due to issue papers in the coming days outlining its approach to financial technology (fintech) and capital markets, while further down the line it’s expected to propose changes to the funds and insurance sectors.

Here are five things set to shape the City of London financial hub following its loss of access to the EU:

BIG BANG DEBATE
Britain’s finance ministry is reviewing financial regulation and insurance capital rules, with minister Rishi Sunak raising the prospect of a “Big Bang 2.0” to maintain the City’s competitiveness, a reference to liberalisation of trading in the 1980s.

But it’s unclear how far any deregulation could go given that Britain says it won’t undermine global standards.

UK Finance, a banking body, wants a formal remit for regulators to ditch rules that put them at a competitive disadvantage globally. Insurers want cuts in capital requirements to free up cash for green and long term investments.

But the Bank of England says the City must not become an “anything goes” financial centre, and that insurers hold the right amount of capital.

Cross-border firms want to avoid Britain diverging from international norms as this would add to compliance costs.

City veterans say Britain should focus on allowing firms to hire globally, and ensuring that regulators respond nimbly and proportionately to crypto-assets, sustainable finance, long-term investing and restructurings after COVID-19.

COPYING NEW YORK
London has fallen behind New York in attracting company flotations and a government-backed review of listing rules is likely to recommend allowing “dual class” shares and a lower “free float”, perhaps for a limited period.

Dual class shares are stocks in the same company with different voting rights, while “free float” refers to the proportion of a company’s shares that are publicly available.

The potential changes could attract more tech and fintech companies whose founders typically want to retain a large degree of control.

It could also recommend making it easier for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) – businesses that raise money on stock markets to buy other companies – an area in which New York has also dominated, with Amsterdam catching up fast.

UK asset managers warn that strong corporate governance standards could be diluted by tinkering with listing rules.

BEYOND SANDBOXES
Britain is home to one of the world’s biggest innovative fintech sectors, its “sandboxes” – which allow fintech firms to test new products on real consumers under regulatory supervision – copied across the world. But Brexit means Britain has to work harder to attract and retain fintechs as they will no longer have direct access to the world’s biggest trading area.

A government-backed review to buttress the sector is due to report back on Friday with recommendations that could include cutting red tape for fintechs that want to recruit staff from across the world, and make listing in Britain more attractive.

Other ideas could include helping fledgling fintech navigate government departments and regulators more easily, along with ways of boosting funding for start-ups.

FUNDS ARE THE FUTURE
Britain is reviewing how to make itself a more competitive place for listing investment funds, a core tool for bringing fresh capital into markets.

UK-based asset managers run many funds listed in the EU, but this global system of cross-border management known as delegation could be tightened up by the bloc.

Having more funds listed in Britain would also mean that the shares they hold would be traded in London. Billions of euros in trading euro shares have left the UK for Amsterdam since Brexit due to the bloc’s restrictions on where funds can trade shares.

THINK GLOBAL
As the City will get only limited access at best to the EU, industry officials say it makes more sense to focus on getting better access to other markets like Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and the United States, while at the same time keeping the UK financial market open to the world, including the EU.

Negotiations between Britain and Switzerland for a “mutual recognition” deal in financial rules is the way to go, industry officials say. Better global access would also keep the City ahead of EU centres like Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt.

($1 = 0.7056 pounds)

(Reporting by Huw Jones. Editing by Mark Potter)



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