‘We believe liquidity scenario should change in next few months’

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That was the one-off which I believe should now start changing, and we should be getting back to normal operations in terms of how people behave, given their credit scores.

Bank of Baroda’s (BoB) decision to consciously run down some low-margin loans resulted in its loan book shrinking in Q1FY22, MD & CEO Sanjiv Chadha tells Shritama Bose. While retail repayments have been hit by the second wave of Covid, many small borrowers have a good track record and will soon resume good credit behaviour, he adds. Excerpts:

Your loan book has shrunk in Q1FY22. What is the outlook for the full year?

We have held a view that we would want to grow in areas which give us a positive risk-return. Given the fact that there’s abundance of liquidity and pricing is under pressure on the corporate side, we have focused on growth on the retail side. It is risk-mitigated to the extent possible in these uncertain times. So, we have had reasonably good credit growth in those areas. Our organic retail growth is about 12%. Within that, we have had about 25% growth in car loans.

Gold loans have done very well for us; they have grown 35%. The only reason that growth was subdued in this quarter was that we allowed some cheaply-priced corporate loans to run off because we believe that the liquidity scenario should start changing over the next few months. There is an opportunity to price corporate loans in a slightly better manner as compared to what was possible in the last 12 months. In the areas where we want to grow, we have grown at a reasonably good pace.

Where do you see credit growth for the rest of the year?

We have pretty much run down the loans where the margins were low. With that base, we should see corporate growth happening on a net basis from the next quarter onwards. We are seeing a fair bit of activity, particularly in the roads sector, on the corporate side as also in terms of city gas projects and renewable energy. Brownfield expansion is something we are seeing. On the retail side, we have some strong franchises, which should continue to grow, especially now that lockdowns are getting lifted. Our own sense is that we should see growth of about 7-10% for the industry this year, and our growth should pretty much be in line.

Most slippages for you have come from the MSME, retail and agri books. Was it a problem of collections or is there financial distress?

It was a bit of both. There is no argument that the retail segment and the MSME segment have been affected by the second wave in particular. The MSME sector was anyway under stress for the last one year, but the retail sector, which had still got through the first wave because there was a moratorium, was pretty badly impacted by the second wave. A lot of personal finances got upset by the second wave because I think there was hardly a family where there weren’t any Covid-related expenses amongst our borrowers.

Having said that, this was more of a one-off, you might argue. While the MSME challenge is a little more, because for the last one year, MSMEs have been impacted by lockdowns and demand disruption, for the retail sector it is more of a one-off. Last year, very few people looked at restructuring. This year, people have been impacted, loans have been restructured, some have slipped, but at the same time, in July, there is a fair bit of pullback that’s happening. My own sense is that both for MSME and retail, the kind of slippages we saw in the last quarter was peak distress, and that should start diminishing over the next few quarters, while the improvement we have seen in the credit cycle for corporates should continue. So for us, credit costs have come down as compared to last year simply because the corporate improvement has offset the challenges in retail and MSME.

Have you felt the need to tighten credit filters in the small loan segments?

Not really, for the reason that we actually have had fairly robust filters. In retail, our underwriting is mostly for borrowers who have credit scores of 700+. Seventy percent are 725+. But, in the last few months, even if you are somebody who has never defaulted on a loan and you have a 725+ credit score, the kind of health expenditure that happened was totally out of character and out of context, as compared to what your past credit record was. That was the one-off which I believe should now start changing, and we should be getting back to normal operations in terms of how people behave, given their credit scores.

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Bank of Baroda document shows stress may be higher than foreseen

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He added: “The kind of stress we are seeing now is something which is unprecedented and therefore it is likely there may be some slippages which you can’t anticipate.”

A placement document of Bank of Baroda (BoB), for an equity fundraise, shows the lender’s special mention accounts (SMA) ratio surged to 21.57% as on December 31, 2020, from 8% on March 31, 2020. This would suggest that lenders’ collection efficiencies do not adequately reflect the level of stress in the system.

To be fair, the BoB management has signalled that the restructuring scheme may have been unable to address stress in the retail and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) segments, and there may be pain ahead.

Bank of Baroda MD and CEO Sanjiv Chadha said in January, “In terms of the known unknowns, things which have not fully played out yet that is where the MSME and retail are…Particularly, retail is the kind of book which was not being stress-tested.”

He added: “The kind of stress we are seeing now is something which is unprecedented and therefore it is likely there may be some slippages which you can’t anticipate.”

The SMA ratio indicates the share of a bank’s loans that have been delinquent for between 1-90 days. BoB’s SMA-0 ratio, or accounts where repayments were delayed by 1-30 days, contributed to much of the surge, rising to 13.44% from 5.47% during the period under review. SMA-2 accounts, where the repayment delay ranges between 61 and 90 days, shot up to 5.52% from 1.41%.

Earlier, a high bounce rate on EMI transactions had raised an alarm about the degree of delinquencies in lenders’ retail books. The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has not yet released this data point for January or thereafter after the bounce rate was found to be persistently high at around 40% for months at a stretch.

There have been concerns, too, about the 90%-plus collection efficiency numbers being reported by banks and non-bank lenders. Analysts are now questioning the wisdom of conflating collection efficiencies with asset quality.

On Monday, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) said in a report that the data gives further credence to its view that there is a difference between collection efficiency and probable slippages that could be reported by lenders. “Information asymmetry is quite high and it would be useful for banks to report SMA and 90+DPD (days past due) as it provides a better understanding of the stress,” the report said.

The regulator is not particularly sanguine about bad assets staying under control, either. Loan losses in the banking sector, as measured by the gross non performing asset (GNPA) ratio, could nearly double to 13.5% by September 2021 in a baseline scenario, and to as high as 14.8% in a severe-stress scenario resulting from the pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had said in the December 2020 edition of its financial stability report (FSR).

The ratio of accounts in the SMA-2 category of the private-sector non-financial wholesale segment rose to 7.2% as on November 30, 2020 from 1.7% on September 30, 2020, according to the FSR. The sharp rise in SMA-2 loans coincided with the Supreme Court’s stay on recognition of bad assets after August 31.

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