Bank deposits contract in the post Diwali fortnight, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Banks deposits contracted by over a lakh crore in the post Diwali fortnight as investors applied in huge amounts for the big ticket IPOs lined up during the fortnight ended November 19

Aggregate deposits in the banking system dipped Rs 2.67 lakh crore during the fortnight ended November 19 to Rs 157.8 lakh crore, latest RBI data indicates. Both demand and term deposits contracted sharply during the fortnight by Rs 1.52 lakh crore and Rs 2.67 crore respectively.

Analysts attribute this largely to investors using the money parked in banks to apply for many big ticket IPOs during the fortnight. These included PayTM, Sapphire Foods and paisabazar.com among others. “The sharp contraction in deposits during the fortnight is probably driven by withdrawal for IPOs ” said an economist with a foreign bank. “There was a big jump in deposits in the previous fortnight.”

But on a long-term basis deposits continue to post a strong growth despite banks lowering interest rates earned on them. Weighted average term deposit rates have fallen by over 50 basis points-bps over the last one year. Yet, the year-on-year deposit growth is 9.8 per cent as of November 19, as bank deposits continue to be a risk free avenue of investment for savers. It is reckoned that bank deposits account for nearly half of household financial savings in India as they have been typically risk averse. But this mind-set is slowly changing, experts say.

As for credit, there was a modest pick-up of Rs 1,158 core during the fortnight. But on a long-term basis, banks are seeing a pick-up in loan demand as economic activity picks up following easing of lockdown induced restrictions. On a year-on-year basis, credit growth worked out to 6.9 per cent as of November 19, compared to less than 6 per cent a few years ago.

As per the latest data on sectoral deployment of bank credit, loans to large corporates rose 0.5 per cent (on a year-on-year basis) to Rs 22.7 lakh crore in October compared to a contraction of 1.8 per cent a year ago. All major segments except services including agriculture, industry and retail posted higher growth rates over previous year.



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November post-Diwali was sluggish for banks, says Kotak Institutional Equities

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The share price of lenders (banks) saw a decline in November, while non-lenders (insurance and capital markets) saw only a minor decline, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report. Kotak further said that payment activity saw marginal month-on-month (m-o-m) decline after the festive (Diwali) season and the loan growth too continued to be sluggish with no sharp recovery in any specific segment barring SME despite a low interest rate environment.

Kotak believes that with the asset quality issues gradually receding, they see spreads decline but loan demand issues remain.

“November was a sluggish month for the BFSI sector as the Bank Nifty registered a decline of 9 per cent. Non-frontline private banks saw the sharpest decline of 14 per cent, while non-lenders (capital market players and insurance companies) resisted the downward momentum. Frontline private banks also saw a drawdown, with HDFC Bank performing relatively better. NBFCs outperformed the bank index. On a 12-month horizon, PSU banks have outperformed the Bank Nifty quite meaningfully. The emergence of a new Covid strain has put pressure on the market, but we wait to see if the spread could result in another set of mobility restrictions in India,” Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report.

Highlights from the report

Payments data continues to be strong, albeit with marginal m-o-m decline

Daily payments data for November from RBI indicates that strong trends in payments continued across payment systems, with marginal mom decline on the back of the festive season in October. In particular, a representative subset of card spends data indicates that spends in November were robust, although marginally lower mom. UPI transactions also saw a similar trend. Bank credit growth stood at ~7% levels with negligible growth from the corporate segment and a marginally better performance on the retail side. Loan growth has been sluggish, but seems to have bottomed out and we expect to see some strengthening in the trend.

NIM expansion unlikely

As per the latest data from RBI, deposit rates were flat m-o-m at around 5.1%. Both private and PSU banks have reduced their TD rates by around50 bps over the past 12 months. Wholesale deposit cost (as measured by CD rates) has seen a much sharper decline. It has been broadly stable in FY2022. The gap between repo and 1-year TD rate for SBI stands at 100 bps after declining from peak levels of around 130 bps. The premium of SBI TD rates over G-Sec yields has narrowed from its peak level.

Lending rates on fresh loans were flat m-o-m for banks overall, but declined nearly 30 bps m-o-m for private banks and increased 30 bps m-o-m for PSU banks. These rates have been volatile in recent months. The gap between fresh lending rates of private and PSU banks has declined to around 120 bps, which is in line with the average over the past 12 months. The gap between outstanding and fresh lending rates has been in the range of 110-140 bps since the onset of Covid. Steep decline in bond market rates till July 2020 had led to a narrowing of the spread between bank funding and bond rates, but bond yields seem to be trending upwards now. The lenders have been slow in passing the lower cost of funds. In recent months, the spreads are beginning to peak out and decline marginally suggesting that expansion of NIM on corporate books is a low probability event.

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Banks allowed to offer interest rate on FCNR (B) deposits linked to ARR

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The Reserve Bank of India has decided to permit banks to offer interest rates on FCNR (B) deposits using widely-accepted ‘Overnight Alternative Reference Rate (ARR) for the respective currency’ with an upward revision in the interest rates ceiling by 50 basis points (bps).

This comes in view of the impending discontinuance of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) as a benchmark rate.

As a measure to handle the information asymmetry during the transition, the Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI) may publish the ARR till such time the widely-accepted benchmark is established, the central bank said in a circular to banks.

The RBI said the interest rates ceiling on FCNR (B) deposits of 1 year to less than 3 years shall be overnight ARR for the respective currency / Swap plus 250 bps against LIBOR/ Swap plus 200 bps now.

Further, the interest rates ceiling on FCNR (B) deposits of 3 years and above up to and including 5 years shall be overnight ARR for the respective currency / Swap plus 350 bps against LIBOR/ Swap plus 300 bps now.

Foreign Currency (Non-Resident) Account (Banks) scheme allows non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) to open a term deposit account (for terms not less than 1 year and not more than 5 years) in India in any permitted currency — that is a foreign currency which is freely convertible.

Such accounts may be held jointly in the names of two or more NRIs/ PIOs. NRIs/ PIOs can also hold such accounts jointly with a resident relative on ‘former or survivor’ basis (relative as defined in Companies Act, 2013).

The resident relative can operate the account as a Power of Attorney holder during the life time of the NRI/ PIO account holder.

RBI said the overnight ARR for the respective currency / Swap rates quoted/ displayed by FEDAI shall be used as the reference for arriving at the interest rates on FCNR (B) deposit.

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Federal Bank records 10% loan growth in Q2, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Private sector lender Federal Bank on Sunday said it has posted a 10 per cent growth in advances at Rs 1,37,309 crore for the second quarter ended September 30. Total advances stood at Rs 1,25,209 crore at the end of the second quarter of the last financial year, Federal Bank said in a regulatory filing.

The bank’s deposits also rose by 10 per cent (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1,71,995 crore in the quarter from Rs 1,56,747 crore in the same period a year ago, it said.

Federal Bank’s low-cost deposits–current account and saving deposits(CASA)-were up by 18 per cent to Rs 62,191 crore.

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Private bank deposits grow at cost of PSBs, now 30.5% of total deposits, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Share of private sector banks in total bank deposits continued to rise at the cost of public sector banks and stood at 30.5 per cent (29.5 per cent a year ago), accounting for about half of the deposits of financial and non-financial corporations as well as the rest of the world sectors.

Bank deposits grew (y-o-y) by 11.9 per cent during the 2020-21 (8.8 per cent in the previous year) on the back of high growth in current account and savings account (CASA) deposits; the share of CASA deposits increased to 43.7 per cent in March 2021 (41.7 per cent a year ago), according to RBI data.

Private bank deposits grow at cost of PSBs, now 30.5% of total deposits

Households dominate

Among institutional categories, the household sector held 64.1 per cent share in total deposits; individuals, including Hindu Undivided Families (HUFs), were the major constituent of the household sector and contributed 55.8 per cent in aggregate deposits.

Bank deposits of non-financial corporations surged by 18.8 per cent during 2020-21 and their share in total deposits increased to 16.2 per cent in March-2021.

Metropolitan branches of banks, which account for over half of total deposits, accounted for 59.6 per cent of incremental deposits during 2020-21 (43.2 per cent last year).

Three major states (Maharashtra, UP and Karnataka) held one-third of total household sectors’ outstanding deposits and over 40 per cent of its incremental deposits during 2020-21, according to RBI.

Private bank deposits grow at cost of PSBs, now 30.5% of total deposits

Term deposits

With the downward shift in the interest rates on term deposits, the share of term deposits carrying less than 6 per cent interest rate surged to 69.0 per cent in March 2021 from 21.3 per cent a year ago; the interest rate bracket ‘5 to less than 6 per cent had highest concentration (36.8 per cent) of total term deposits.

The majority of term deposits were originally contracted for ‘one year to less than three years’ maturity.

The share of short-term deposits (original maturity of less than one-year) rose to 32.8 per cent (25.4 per cent a year ago); in terms of residual maturity, 75.7 per cent of the term deposits were due for maturity within one year.



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Four things you may not know about P2P lending

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With interest rates on bank deposits at rock-bottom, fintech players are tying with peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms to showcase loan products as a lucrative alternative to bank deposits or mutual funds. But before you bite the bait and sign on as an investor in one of them, you need to be aware of how these loan products work.

They’re loosely regulated

P2P lending platforms are RBI-regulated, but the regulations are far sketchier than those for banks or mainstream NBFCs. While a bank or NBFC is required to adhere to dozens of norms on net worth, loan composition, capital adequacy, leverage, recognition of bad loans et al, P2P platforms only need to have net owned funds of ₹2 crore, cap their leverage at two times, while they stick to unsecured loans for tenures up to 36 months.

When signing up, you may need to do some digging to know if you’re dealing with a regulated P2P platform, as they usually operate through tie-ups. The regulated entity that is facilitating your loan and thus is under RBI’s watch, may be two steps removed from the fancy app or front-end fintech player you’re interacting with. For instance, for its P2P lending business, CRED Mint states that it has tied up with Liquiloans, a P2P platform. However, Liquiloans by itself does not figure in RBI’s list of registered P2P entities. Instead, Liquiloans appears to be brand name used by NDX P2P Private Limited which is an RBI registered NBFC-P2P. Do ensure that you peel the onion to verify if the P2P platform you’re dealing with is registered with RBI. You can do that here: https://tinyurl.com/p2prbilist

You’re lending, not investing

While wooing lenders, many P2P platforms plug the 2X or 3X ‘returns’ on their loans compared to returns on investments such as bank fixed deposits or mutual funds. But don’t let the promises of compounding and wealth generation mislead you into believing that lending on a P2P platform is the same as investing with a bank or mutual fund. When a bank borrows from you, its promise to repay you is backed by many regulatory safeguards such as the Statutory Liquidity Ratio, Cash Reserve Ratio, deposit insurance and so on. If bank fails to honour its promise, it can spell doom for its business. Indeed, that’s why the government and RBI often step in to rescue banks even before there’s first whiff of a default. With a mutual fund, there’s a professional fund manager selecting bonds or stocks and her/his performance is benchmarked against peers and the index.

But on a P2P platform, you’re essentially lending to a stranger who has happened to approach you through an app. The platform may use fancy algorithms to filter and present to you individuals whom it thinks are credit-worthy. But ultimately the borrower’s ability and his or her willingness to repay you, will decide if you’re going to get back your money. Unlike other ‘investments’, your principal in a P2P transaction is always at risk and the high interest rate compensates for this risk. In fact, if a borrower is willing to pay 2X or 3X bank deposit rates, that shows how high the risk to your principal is. Check the portfolio performance metrics of a P2P to see default rates of borrowers. The more information that a platform gives you on this, the better-equipped you are to gauge risk.

You’re dealing with individuals

P2P platforms in India are of very recent origin and don’t have established institutions backing them. They, therefore, tend to showcase their pedigree by highlighting the private equity and angel investors who’ve funded them, or business houses they’re partnered with. But private equity investors are often just financial investors in P2P platforms who don’t play an active role in their running. Business partners who’ve tied up with the platform are likely looking to their own business interests for a fee.

When you’re lending on a P2P platform, be aware that you’re not dealing with an institution, you are dealing with the individual or individuals you are lending to.

The platform is merely playing the facilitator to this transaction. RBI rules clearly specify that a regulated P2P NBFC can only be an intermediary providing an online marketplace, where lenders and borrowers meet.

It cannot raise any deposits from you, lend its own money or even hold any money on its own balance sheet. The platform also cannot provide any guarantee that borrowers will repay their loans or allow them to offer any security against their loans.

The P2P loan is essentially a contract between an individual borrower and individual lender. This makes it important for you to understand the credit score and credit worthiness of the borrower or borrowers you are lending to and terms you are signing off on. Whenever you make a transaction, the platform is required to disclose to you the personal identity of the borrower, the loan amount, interest rate and credit score, apart from the loan contract itself.

Know your liabilities

When there are defaults, P2P platforms use either internal or hired staff to facilitate recovery of loans. While P2P platforms admit to using both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ methods for recoveries, the RBI has a very strict code in place on the practices that all NBFCs may and may not employ to recover loans from defaulters.

When a P2P platform attempts recoveries of your loan, it effectively acts as an agent on your behalf. Any hardball tactics it or its agents use can reflect or backfire on you.

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How savings were impacted by Covid second wave

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Faced with the surge of Covid-19 infections in recent months combined with lockdowns that led to job losses and drop in income, many households are understood to have started using their accumulated savings to fund expenditure.

This, in turn, has led to concerns over a decline in the savings rate that could hamper further recovery.

According to the Reserve Bank of India’s monthly bulletin for March, household net financial savings rose to 21 per cent of GDP in the first quarter of 2020-21 and fell to 10.4 per cent in the second quarter. A report by Motilal Oswal in April had said household net financial savings had likely fallen to 8.4 per cent of GDP in the third quarter last fiscal.

Anecdotal data as well as the slowdown in bank deposits indicate that household savings have been impacted by the second surge of Covid-19 infections.

Bank deposits

Deposits of commercial scheduled banks grew 9.7 per cent on an annual basis to ₹1,51,66,808.18 crore for the fortnight ended May 21, 2021 as against a 9.9 per cent growth in the fortnight ended May 7, 2021.

“Growth in deposits with scheduled commercial banks (a proxy for household saving, having about 50 per cent share in households’ overall savings portfolio), has declined starting April 2021. Last year, in contrast, deposit growth had moved up. This could be indicative of pressure on incomes and a simultaneous rise in medical expenditure given the heightened ferocity of the second wave,” said a recent report by Crisil.

People also seem to be withdrawing funds from retirement savings. By May 31, 2021, the EPFO had settled over 76.31 lakh claims under the Covid-19 advance scheme amounting to over ₹18,698.15 crore. The government has now allowed a second round of such withdrawals from the Employees’ Provident Fund.

Gold auction

Gold loan NBFCs are auctioning more gold in recent months indicating higher distress amongst borrowers. For instance, Manappuram Finance said it auctioned gold worth ₹404 crore in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 compared to ₹8 crore in the nine month period ended December 2020.

Sale of life insurance policies has also declined in recent months but there are expectations that it may revive in coming months.

“Equity markets have been performing well. It is expected that products such as mutual funds and ULIPs will continue to do well this fiscal as bank deposits have lost their sheen,” said an executive with a private insurer.

 

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Bank credit grows 5.33%; deposits rise 10.94%

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Bank credit grew by 5.33 per cent to Rs 108.89 lakh crore, and deposits rose 10.94 per cent to Rs 152.15 lakh crore in the fortnight ended April 9, 2021.

In the fortnight ended April 10, 2020, bank advances stood at Rs 103.38 lakh crore and deposits were Rs 137.15 lakh crore.

In 2020-21 fiscal, bank credit increased 5.56 per cent and deposits 11.4 per cent.

Care Ratings in a recent report said the bank credit growth rate continues to decline, however, in absolute terms bank credit (in the fortnight ended April 9, 2021) increased by Rs 5.5 lakh crore as compared to the fortnight ended April 10, 2020, but declined by Rs 0.62 lakh crore from the previous fortnight ended March 26, 2021.

“In absolute terms, bank credit usually declines in the first month of the new financial year, as it is a lean period (this trend can be observed for the last five years),” the rating agency said.

However, the year-on-year growth rate has fallen in the first month of the new financial year (i.e., April 2021) for the first time in five years, reflecting subdued credit demand amid the rising second wave of the pandemic, the report said.

The agency said bank credit growth is likely to increase in FY22, given the growth in the economy and the base effect coming into play.

The downside risks include lockdowns in key states, which may impact the industrial as well as the service segments.

Another risk is the end of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) in June 2021, which had propped up the MSME credit.

However, the extension of the Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTROs) and on-lending norms could support growth, the agency said.

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Is PMVVY better than other senior citizen schemes

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Features

PMVVY is a guaranteed pension scheme offered exclusively by the LIC. Open only to individuals who have completed 60 years, it promises regular pension payments at a monthly, quarterly, half yearly or yearly frequency in return for an upfront investment (called a purchase price).

This scheme which was set to expire in March 2020, was modified and extended upto 31 March, 2023. The scheme’s return has been aligned to that on the post office Senior Citizen’s Savings scheme, with a cap of 7.75 per cent. For FY21, the return is 7.4 per cent. It will be revised in FY22 and FY23 if SCSS rates change. If you invest before March 31, 2021, your return will be 7.4 per cent for the entire 10 years.

While this is due for reset on April 1, it appears unlikely that it will be hiked, given the premium over market interest rates.

PMVVY sets minimum and maximum limits on your investment at ₹1.56 lakh and ₹15 lakh respectively. If you’ve invested in the earlier version of PMVVY, you won’t be allowed to invest more than ₹15 lakh in both versions put together. The scheme guarantees pension payouts for 10 years, with a return of principal at maturity. Should the investor die within 10 years, beneficiaries will get back principal. Premature exit with a 2 per cent penalty on principal is allowed in case of critical or terminal illness of self or spouse. Investors can avail of loans (up to 75 per cent of the investment). The scheme enjoys no tax benefits, except for GST exemption on principal.

How it compares

To Immediate annuity plans: LIC and other insurers offer immediate annuity plans- where you can get a lifelong pension against a lump sum upfront investment. The PMVVY offers better pension rates than them. A 60-year old buying LIC’s Jeevan Akshay VII, for instance, will receive an annual pension of ₹71,210 under the return of purchase price option versus ₹76,600 under PMVVY. Under Jeevan Shanti, where he needs to defer his pension by a year, he would receive ₹54,900.

For those seeking liquidity, the PMVVY’s 10-year lock-in may seem more palatable than the lifelong lock-ins of other immediate annuity plans. PMVVY waives GST while immediate annuity plans levy it at 1.8 per cent of the purchase price.

The PMVVY however does suffer from some negatives. The ₹15 lakh cap on total investments restricts your monthly pension to ₹9,250. PMVVY offers the same pension rate for all subscribers above 60. In other immediate annuity plans, pension rates rise substantially with age. Under Jeevan Akshay VII, a 70-year-old can take home 30 per cent more pension than a 60-year old with an identical purchase price.

To Senior Citizens Savings Scheme: The SCSS from India Post allows seniors above 60 to deposit upto ₹15 lakh with a guaranteed quarterly payout at 7.4 per cent per annum. Those above 55 who have taken VRS or have retired can park retirement proceeds in the scheme. Interest rates on SCSS are reset quarterly by the Government. The scheme carries a 5 year lock-in, with initial investments eligible for section 80C benefits. The interest is taxable. The scheme allows premature withdrawal but with a penalty.

When you are investing close to the bottom of a rate cycle like now, SCSS with a 5-year lock-in can help you secure better rates more quickly than PMVVY.

PMVVY is also constrained by the cap of 7.75 per cent on rates. SCSS’ facility to withdraw without any conditions attached is a big plus for seniors looking to take out money for emergency needs or to switch to better rates after one year.

The 80C benefit can help seniors meet their tax saving goals along with securing regular income.

SCSS does not offer a monthly pension option and does not facilitate loans. However, incomes from both SCSS and PMVVY are liable to tax at your slab rate.

To bank deposits: One-to-five year deposits with leading banks today offer rates of 5-5.5 per cent. Small finance banks offer 7-7.5 per cent. But PMVVY is safer than small finance banks as it is LIC and government-backed. You can also get predictable pension payouts for 10 years without worrying about rate moves.

In a rising rate scenario, parking in upto 1 year bank deposits can help you benefit quickly from higher rates.

But given the gap between the present PMVVY rate of 7.4 per cent and deposit rates of leading banks, it may be some time before deposit rates catch up.

Therefore decide between PMVVY and bank deposits based on the 10 year lock-in.

(This is a free article from the BusinessLine premium Portfolio segment. For more such content, please subscribe to The Hindu BusinessLine online.)

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Ind-Ra, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has revised its outlook on the overall banking sector to stable for FY22 from negative. This is because substantial systemic measures have reduced the system-wide COVID-19 linked stress below the expected levels. Banks have also strengthened their financials by raising capital and building provision buffers.

“Ind-Ra has upgraded its FY21 credit growth estimates to 6.9% from 1.8% and 8.9% in FY22, with the improvement in the economic environment in 2HFY21 and the government focus on higher spending especially on infrastructure. We estimate GNPA at 8.8% in FY21 (FY22: 10.1%) and stressed assets at 10.9% (11.7%). Provisioning cost has fallen from its earlier estimate of 2.3% for FY21 to 2.1%” said the agency in its report.

Key Findings

Private Sector Banks

  • The regulatory changes led to an improvement in public sector banks’ (PSBs) ability to raise AT I capital, a high provision cover on legacy NPAs, overall systemic support resulting in lower-than-expected COVID-19 stress.
  • Private Banks continue to gain market share both in assets and liabilities, while competing intensely with PSBs. Most have strengthened their capital buffers and proactively managed their portfolio.

Stressed Assets

  • Ind-Ra estimates that about 1.24% of the total bank book is under incremental proforma NPA and about 1.75% of the total book could be restructured by end-FY21.
  • Ind-Ra estimates that overall stressed assets (GNPA + restructured) could increase 30% for the banking system, the increase is almost 1.7x in the retail segment in 2HFY21.
  • The stock of stressed retail assets for PSBs could increase to 2.9% in FY22 from 2.1% in FY21, while it could increase from 1.2% to 4.3% for Pvt Banks.
  • Ind-Ra has assessed that stressed corporate assets as a percentage of gross bank credit declined to 15.3% at end-1HFY21 from 15.7% at end-FY20 (FY19: 17.2%, 1HFY19: 19.3%, FY18: 20.2%).

Provision Coverage Ratio

  • Excluding COVID-19 linked stress, Ind-Ra expects the provision coverage ratio (excluding technical write-offs) for both PSBs and Pvt Banks to reach 75%-80% by end-FY21.
  • The resultant provision cover is expected to be about 70% at end-FY21 and FY22, while the historic slippage rate will continue.
  • PSBs have 0.2%-0.5% provisions while Pvt Banks have 1%-2% covid provisions, most of which is unutilised.

The report further mentioned, “Under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme, the GoI provided a guarantee to banks and NBFCs for extending funds to stressed MSMEs. Based on the progress seen till 25 January 2021, the funds sanctioned by banks under the scheme has totalled to INR1.98 trillion.” While Pvt Banks have been more adept at underwriting risk in the segment, they also have a higher share of unsecured retail assets where the borrowers have faced a disproportionate impact on their ability to service loans.

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