Category: Personal Finance

Mid-size firms, retail lead the charge in credit rebound, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Indian lenders are beginning to see a pick-up in loan demand, with medium-sized firms and retail clients at the vanguard of a visible credit rebound.

Bank credit rose 6.8% in October, compared with 5.1% in the same period a year ago, show the latest figures published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Outstanding credit amounted to ₹110.5 lakh crore as of October 22, up ₹7 lakh crore in a year.

The pick-up is largely due to the push from government schemes even as large corporates and top rated borrowers continue to rely on capital markets and overseas money hubs where they manage to raise funds at much cheaper rates. India’s weighted average lending rates were at 7.2% in September, according to RBI data.

At the same time, the average rates for triple-A rated five-year corporate bonds were at 6% and at 5.29% for three-year maturity, show Bloomberg data compiled by ETIG.

The latest data on sectoral flow of credit offtake show that lending to medium-sized firms rose 49% year-on-year to ₹1.75 lakh crore as of end September compared with the same period a year ago.

Much of the lending is reckoned to be under the government’s Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) MSME sector, under which the government provides 100% guarantee to banks in respect of eligible credit facilities extended by it to its borrowers.

In addition, consumer durable loans have risen by 40% compared with 14.9% in the same period a year ago, with borrowers taking advantage of the reduced interest rates. With the government’s renewed thrust on the social sector, lending to infrastructure more than doubled to ₹1,323 crore in September from ₹1,081 crore a year ago.

On the liability side, the pace of deposit pick-up has slowed marginally to 9.9%. But deposit growth still continues to outpace credit growth.

In absolute terms, banks raised almost double the amount of deposits at ₹14 lakh crore than the amount they lent during the period.



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Gold gleams as central banks hold off on interest rate hikes, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Gold prices were poised for their best day in three weeks on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England indicated they were in no rush to raise interest rates.

Spot gold was up 1.6%, its most since Oct. 13, to $1,798.05 per ounce at 10:29 a.m. EDT (1429 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery jumped 1.9% to $1,797.00.

The Fed indicated that they are probably not going to mess with interest rates, and that is bullish for metals, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, on Wednesday signaled the central bank would stay patient – and wait for more job growth – before raising interest rates, while beginning to trim its massive bond-buying program this month.

Ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy has helped drive gold sharply higher since the financial crisis of the late 2000s, with low interest rates cutting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and inflation fears stoking demand for a hedge.

“The Bank of England leaving rates unchanged overnight shows central banks right now don’t have an appetite for higher rates,” Haberkorn said, adding that gold could by Friday go “north of $1,800 just based on sentiment and the technicals.”

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold on Thursday, dashing expectations for a hike that would have made it the first of the world’s big central banks to raise rates after the pandemic.

Independent analyst Ross Norman said strong physical demand for gold was supporting the market, as India‘s Diwali festival generally boosts sales of the precious metal.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 2.1% to $23.98 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.7% to $1,036.43 and palladium jumped 1.5% to $2,030.34.



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This Automobile Stock To ‘Buy’ With +29% Return In 1 Year: Motilal Oswal

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Target price

According to the firm Motilal Oswal, the current market price (CMP) of Eicher Motors is Rs. 2,522. the target price (TP) for the stock is Rs. 3,250, hence giving a +29% return in 1 year. Motilal Oswal has recommended investors to buy this stock. About the company’s growth, the firm said, it’s “Above our estimate; beat driven by higher realization.”

CMP AND TP chart
Current market price (CMP) Rs. 2,522
target price (TP) Rs. 3,250
Return in 1 year 29.00%

Company performance

Company performance

Eicher Motors reports a consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 5%/flat/9% YoY and 14%/29%/57% QoQ to ~ Rs. 22.5b/ Rs. 4.7b/ Rs. 3.7b. Their revenue/EBITDA/PAT also increased by 43%/75%/ 112% YoY in H1FY22. Standalone revenue increased by 3% YoY and 14% QoQ to Rs. 21.8b (beating Motilal Oswal’s estimation of Rs. 18.95b), while gross margin declined by 130bp YoY (+40bp YoY) to 41% (est. 40%). They have doubled their revenue from accessories, and expanded their network in the international market, by adding 9 exclusive stores (149 outlets in total) and 3 new multi-brand outlets (over 650 stores). Eicher Motors also added 14 new studio stores (1,052 stores in total) and 20 large stores in the domestic market (1,053 stores in total).

Motilal Oswal's estimation

Motilal Oswal’s estimation

The firm said Eicher Motors’ EIM’s beat in performance has been driven by growth in RE realization and lower staff cost. With supply chain issues showing some signs of improvement, the company is expecting volume performance to be better in H2FY22. Export focus and revenue from accessories are also helping RE improve the company’s realization.

According to Motilal Oswal’s estimation, “We cut our FY22E consolidated EPS by 5% to account for lower volumes in FY22E while maintaining our FY23E earnings estimates. We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of Rs. 3,250/share (Mar’23E SoTP).”

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock is picked from the brokerage report of Motilal Oswal. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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2 Stocks To Buy Recommended By Motilal Oswal For Good Returns In 1 Year

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Buy Eicher Motors with a target price of Rs 3,250

Eicher Motors Limited, headquartered in New Delhi, is an Indian global automobile firm that manufactures middleweight motorcycles and is also the listed parent of Royal Enfield.

Company’s performance according to the brokerage

The consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 5%/flat/9% YoY and 14%/29%/57% QoQ to ~INR22.5b/INR4.7b/INR3.7b. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 43%/75%/ 112% YoY in 1HFY22. Standalone revenue grew 3% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR21.8b (est. INR18.95b), while gross margin declined by 130bp YoY (+40bp YoY) to 41% (est. 40%). Gross profit per unit was the highest ever ~INR72k.

The company’s all recent product launches of Royal Enfield has seen huge success, hence the brokerage has said “We expect 25% volume CAGR (FY21-23E), which would drive margin recovery (by 400bp) to 24.8% by FY23E and standalone PAT CAGR by ~56%.”

What should investors do?

Motilal Oswal has said “We cut our FY22E consolidated EPS by 5% to account for lower volumes due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage while maintaining our FY23 earnings estimate. Demand for RE demand is expected to recover on the back of new launches and ongoing expansion in the international market. After witnessing severe headwinds over the last 24 months, we expect volumes to grow hereafter. The recent launches could be an inflection point for RE as a completely new and improved platform could drive a revival. VECV would see a cyclical recovery in volume and profit, in turn boosting consolidated PAT CAGR to 61%. The stock trades at 35.5x/19.2x FY22E/FY23E consolidated EPS. We maintain our Buy rating, with a TP of ~INR3,250/share (Mar’23E based SoTP).”

Buy Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 860

Buy Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 860

Bharti Airtel Limited is a multinational telecommunications firm with operations in 18 Asian and African countries. The firm, which is headquartered in New Delhi, India, is one of the top three cellular telecommunications providers in the world by customer base.

Company’s performance according to the brokerage

According to Motilal Oswal. Bharti posted a strong 2QFY22, with consolidated EBITDA up 6% QoQ (above our estimate) on India Mobile/Africa EBITDA growth of 6%/5%, led by a 5% increase in India Mobile ARPU. The brokerage has said Bharti Airtel’s consolidated revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to INR283.2b, consolidated EBITDA grew 6.4% QoQ (in-line) to INR138.1b on healthy all-around revenue growth and 330bp margin improvement, led by the nonWireless India business. The company has also reported net profit stood at INR11.3b and excluding exceptional costs, net profit after minority interest stood at INR5.9b (est. INR6.8b).

The brokerage has also said “Capex remained high at INR65.9b (INR241b in FY21). FCF, post interest, declined to INR17.1b v/s INR 22.7b QoQ due to higher taxes. Despite the healthy FCF, net debt (excluding lease liability) continued to increase by INR48.3b to INR1,313b due to reclassification of accrued interest capitalization. Including lease liability of INR349b, net debt stood at INR1,662b, with net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9x on a 2QFY22 basis, down from 3x QoQ.”

What should investors do?

The brokerage has said “We expect 20% CAGR in consolidated EBITDA over FY21-23E on the back of 23% CAGR in Mobile India EBITDA. While the street has been concerned about the timelines of a potential tariff hike, we believe strong earnings growth can be achieved even without a tariff hike. We see the potential for a re-rating in both the India and Africa businesses on the back of steady earnings growth. We value Bharti on a Sep ’22E basis, assigning an EV/EBITDA of 11x/5x to the India Mobile/Africa business, arriving at a SoTPbased TP of INR860. Our estimates do not factor in any upside from a tariff hike or steep market share gains from VIL’s financial stress. We maintain our Buy rating.”

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock is picked from the brokerage report of Motilal Oswal. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Motilal Oswal Recommends This Telecom Stock To ‘Buy’ With +21% Returns In 1 Year

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Target price

The current market price (CMP) of Bharat Airtel is ~ Rs. 713, and According to Motilal Oswal, the target price (TP) for this stock should be Rs. 860. Hence, it will give a return of +21% in 1 year. The firm says this company has reported steady growth, and they are gaining market share. The brokerage firm has rated this stock as ‘Buy’.

Current market price (CMP) ~ Rs. 713
Target price (TP) Rs. 860
Return in 1 year 21.00%

Company performance

Company performance

Bharati Airtel has posted strong Q2FY22 results, with consolidated EBITDA up 6% QoQ, to Rs. 138.1b (which has been above Motilal Oswal’s estimate) on India Mobile/Africa EBITDA growth of 6%/5%, led by a 5% increase in India Mobile ARPU. Bharati Airtel’s Consolidated revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to Rs. 283.2b on strong performance across segments, particularly the India business. Their reported net profit also stood at Rs. 11.3b. The brokerage firm said, “It expects 20% consolidated EBITDA CAGR over FY21- 23E, along with tariff/consolidation to drive FCF/deleveraging. We maintain our Buy rating.”

Motilal Oswal's estimation

Motilal Oswal’s estimation

Motilal Oswal, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the company’s stock said, “We see the potential for a re-rating in both the India and Africa businesses on the back of steady earnings growth. We value Bharti on a Sep’22E basis, assigning an EV/EBITDA of 11x/5x to the India Mobile/Africa business, arriving at an SoTP based TP of Rs. 860. Our estimates do not factor in any upside from a tariff hike or steep market share gains from VIL’s financial stress.”

However, Motilal Oswal, also mentioned the company’s negative points by mentioning, “High Capex and spectrum spend limiting FCF growth/deleveraging: Capex continued to increase to Rs. 70b (Rs. 135.6b/ Rs. 241b in 1HFY22/FY21). FCF, post interest, grew to Rs. 22b (v/s INR17b QoQ), although this is much lower than the company’s potential. Along with an Rs. 105b increase in deferred spectrum liability, this has increased net debt by Rs. 48.3b to Rs. 1,313b.”

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock is picked from the brokerage report of Motilal Oswal. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Raamdeo Agrawal | Stocks to buy: PSU banks or private sector banks or fintechs? Raamdeo Agrawal explains, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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PSU banks are good trade but if I want to buy and hold for 10 years, I would go for private sector and some big PSU banks. But the real finance sector game is going to be private sector banks and that too some of the newer private sector banks where book is very small say Rs 20,000, 30,000, 40,000 crore, says Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Where would you put the entire PSU pack? Is it going to be a pool which is going to give you parabolic returns, is it a pool which is going to give you low return or no returns? The government’s conviction about Air India privatisation and how quickly the disinvestment secretary corrected the convenience fee faux pas in IRCTC in less than 12 hours, what is your view on PSUs?
Yes, that is a positive aspect of that entire incident. PSUs are wonderful companies — mostly monopolistic or duopolistic. They are dominant players in the economy and their underlying value is very high if there is a bit of entrepreneurship and hands off approach to these companies.

The PSUs as a basket should give at least the market return. I do not think it will underperform the way it underperformed in the last 10 years and there is a good chance that it might even outperform because the valuations have been completely pessimistic even till date so as the economy recovers because they are mostly not export oriented. They are proxies to the Indian economy. I think they will do well if the policy remains encouraging and there is no interference in their affairs. I am quite sure eventually some optimism will come back in their counters. A little bit of rerating from 7-8 PE multiple to a 9-10 can take care of their market performance or even a bit of outperformance.

Also Read: Bull run is getting bigger! There are 70 million bulls in the market now

What should be the best way to participate in the financial space? Currently there are two very diverse views in the market. One view is supporting the comeback in PSU banks and one view is favouring technology and fintechs?
Fintech has a niche typically in unsecured lending and mass lending — 5,000, 10,000, 100,000 buy today pay tomorrow or buy now pay later. Basically it is unsecured. The moment you talk about security, you have to go on the ground and become non-digital; taking care of the collateral is a non-digital process mostly. So, that is a one small segment.

I do not think mainstream banking is yet threatened by fintech companies broadly. In mainstream banking there is a public sector, there is a private sector. In the next two-three years, when the economy recovers and the credit cycle changes and credit cost cycle goes in the reverse, public sector banks will also do well. But they are a trade in the sense they are good till the recovery process is complete. That may be the next two years-three years. When the credit cost is the lowest, they will show the highest profit but after that, they will keep losing the market share to private sector banks. But private sector banks are not as cheap as the public sector banks right now.

So if I want to buy and hold for 10 years, I would rather buy private sector and at the margin some public sector banks like the big ones one. They are trading at below one book and then after that, real finance sector game is going to be private sector banks and that too some of the newer private sector banks where book is very small say 20,000, 30,000, 40,000 crore. They can grow at a rapid pace in a given opportunity.



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7 Stocks To Buy As Recommended By The Bulls And Bears Report

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SBI and Canara Bank

Among the PSU banks, Motilal Oswal is bullish on the stocks of State Bank of India and Canara Bank.

According to the Bulls & Bears (November 2021): India Valuations Handbook, PSU Banks are trading at P/B of 0.9x, near the historical average of 0.8 times.

“Overall, we believe the earnings of PSU banks are set to rebound strongly. Along with improving asset quality trends, this would enable healthy CAGRs in ABVs over FY21-24E – compared with muted growth, or even decline, witnessed in many of them in prior years. We estimate PSU banks to deliver early double-digit RoE by FY23, while valuations remain undemanding (except for State Bank of India).

SBI remains top pick in the sector. We resume coverage on Canara Bank with a BUY rating,” the report says.

Stocks to buy from the technology sector

Stocks to buy from the technology sector

From the technology sector, Motilal Oswal likes the stocks of HCL Tech and Infosys, Zenstar Technologies, L&T Technology and Cyient.

“We believe largecap companies are better placed to absorb the supply pressure given their capabilities in training employees in newer skills. Among the Tier I players, we like INFO and HCL Technology on the expectation of industry-leading growth. From the Tier II pack, we prefer LTTS, CYL, and ZENT given their attractive and industry-relevant portfolios,” the brokerage has said.

Earning season broadly in line

Earning season broadly in line

According to Bulls & Bears (November 2021): India Valuations Handbook, the 2QFY22 earnings season has thus far been above estimates, benefitting from a) strong growth in the Technology sector, b) steady recovery in loan growth as well as recovery and an upgrade in the asset quality of most private sector banks, c) higher commodity prices and volume growth in the Energy and Metals sectors, and d) the economic unlock driving growth in Consumer and Retail.

“Nifty profits for the 34 companies that have posted their results have grown 22% YoY (v/s exp. of 13% growth). On the other hand, for the 127 companies in our Motilal Oswal Financial Services Universe, profit growth stands at 26% YoY (v/s exp. of 19% growth),” the report said.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stocks are picked from the brokerage report of Motilal Oswal. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Equity benchmark indices close in green, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], November 4 (ANI): The special session of Muhurat Trading ended with the key indices including the auto sector and consumer discretionary goods and services gaining substantially.

The special trading window marks the beginning of Samvat 2078. It is the Hindu calendar that starts on Diwali.

At the closing bell, the BSE S&P Sensex was up by 295.70 points or 0.49 per cent, while the Nifty 50 gained by 87.60 points or 0.49 per cent.

In BSE Sensex all the sectors gained. The sectors that saw maximum gain were the auto sector that was up by 1.54 per cent, the telecom sector that was up by 1.19 per cent, the capital goods that was up by 1.16 and industrials was up by 1.13 per cent.

Among stocks, the top contributor was Mahindra and Mahindra, which surged 2.87 per cent to Rs 872.95 per share, followed by ITC which surged 1.82 per cent to Rs 226.55 per share. Bajaj Auto, Larsen and Kotak Mahindra too traded with a positive bias.

However, ICICI Bank cracked by 0.43 per cent, followed by Ultra TechCement by 0.34 per cent and Asian Paints by 0.13 per cent.

The stock market will remain closed on November 5 due to Diwali Balipratipada.

Actor Bhagyashree rang the opening bell along with the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the BSE Ashish Chauhan.

“Bollywood Actress Bhagyashree with Ashish Chauhan, MD & CEO BSE India and others Ringing the Opening Bell to mark the Deepavali Muhurat Trading,” BSE India tweeted.

Before the opening, a Laxmi puja was also performed here in Mumbai.

Ashish Chauhan performed the puja along with his family members at BSE office located at Dalal Street in Mumbai’s Kala Ghoda. Bhagyashree was also present during the puja and offered prayers to Goddess Laxmi.

With the completion of this Puja, the special one-hour long Mahurat Trading session commences in BSE. The market closed at 7.15 pm. (ANI)



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BNPL- A boon or a bane for millennials?, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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-Anushka SenguptaDebaditya Ghosh, a senior software developer at Deloitte, affirmed that he will not use BNPL again. Yes, the ‘Buy Now Pay Later’ credit option has its benefits, such as no hidden charges, but millennials like Ghosh said they are not able to control their expenditures.

“I don’t think I will use it again in the near future. The reason behind it being the purchase limit set by the e-commerce entity. For Amazon the limit is Rs 7,500-10,000. I purchased a product worth Rs 16,000, and I got tempted by the no interest rate policy, so I opted for the BNPL option. However, this wasn’t necessary and I wasn’t planning to spend the additional Rs 6,000. But temptations are quite high, which in turn makes you overspend. You start using it even for small purchases and, at the end, you are burdened by a lot of debt,” Ghosh said.

BNPL is a short term financing method, which allows one to make purchases and pay it off in instalments, within the given stipulated time period.

For those who are known to spend their earnings lavishly, and have fallen short in making full payment at the time of purchase, BNPL can be a great option, but it can increase their already-fragile financial burden.

“I always prefer buying using debit or credit because I can opt for deferment of high value purchases by staggered payments, when needed,” said Shreyashi Haldar, final year MBA student of NIBM Pune.

However, the less conservative millennials – the ones who are spend thrift – believe that BNPL is better than EMI, because of the 0% interest rate. BNPL companies offer an interest rate of 0-24%, depending on the transaction amount, and give the option of digital KYC.

“I purchased an item using Amazon’s BNPL facility, even though it had the EMI option. For EMI, I was being charged 13-15% interest, but with Amazon’s BNPL option, I could purchase the item at 0% interest,” said Asmita Sengupta, senior analyst at PWC India.

For EMIs, one has to pay a percent of interest, some charges, and some paperwork is also required.

Although millennials are in two minds about which is better – one thing is for sure – they believe that BNPL will not replace EMIs or credit cards, in line with what the industry believes. One of the main reasons for this is because the purchase limit is higher in EMIs, compared with BNPL.

“From what I have noticed, BNPL facility of e-commerce platforms are available for customers on that platform only. For example, I had purchased some items using Flipkart’s BNPL facility, but I could only buy it from Flipkart. But with my EMI card, I do not face this issue,” Haldar said.

BNPL- A boon or a bane for millennials?
Since BNPL is relatively new, BNPL is yet to garner a greater reach, like that of EMI and credit cards. Though millennials seem to be in two minds about this new and emerging credit option, the industry believes that the demand for it will likely rise in the future – especially after its robust performance this festive season.

Also Read : Buy Now Pay Later not just a festive craze, demand likely to rise



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Groww survey, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Nearly 30% of young investors, aged between 18-30 years, are planning to invest more than usual this festive season, according to a survey by investment platform Groww.

Young investors were seen drawn towards stocks and mutual funds, witnessing the biggest spike at 87% and 58%, respectively, among other investment options like fixed deposits and foreign stocks, the survey added.

The survey was conducted with investors aged 18 and above to understand if the festive season impacts their investment decisions. Millions of young Indians have opted for stock trading during and post pandemic, raising hopes that the appetite for Indian equities is finally growing, the survey said.

Technology, including the rise of cheap trading apps and social media influencers has attracted hordes of day traders into the domestic markets.

Nearly 76% of the respondents are first-time investors, and 69% of respondents have been investing for less than a year. Seasoned investors who’ve been in the market for more than five years account for only 5.7%. Of the total survey respondents, Gen Z (18-24 years) and Gen Y (25-30 years) lead the chart as first-time investors, with 39% and 34% respectively, the survey has found.

The top two driving factors for investments were generating long-term wealth and general savings.

Nearly 30% young investors plan to invest more than usual this festive season: Groww survey

Retirement planning is one of the top investment priorities for investors aged 40 years and above, while 3% are considering to move their investments in the tax-savings asset class options this festive season, it added.

Out of the total respondents, 35% of investors aged between 31-40 years and 34% of investors aged between 25-30 years will plan to invest less than usual.

This is primarily because 45% of respondents are planning smaller purchases (shopping), while 19% plan to get their homes renovated and 18% are planning bigger purchases such as a car, gadgets and others.

Groww, itself, witnessed a 94.53% growth in the number of first-time investors in August, compared with the year ago period. Its investor base has grown rapidly and has already crossed over 15 million customers, indicating positive investment sentiment.



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