Buy This Mid Cap Stock With A Target Price of Rs. 4,220: HDFC Securities

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Q2 financial performance of Fine Organic Industries Ltd.

According to the brokerage, the company’s “Revenue grew 23/62% QoQ/YoY to INR 4.4bn, on the back of strong domestic demand, continued traction in exports driving volumes, and higher realisations. The contribution of exports to the total revenue was 60% in H1FY22. Gross margin came in at 33.3% (+104/- 431bps QoQ/YoY) in Q2, improving sequentially as customers are now accepting price hikes on account of higher raw material costs and higher freight costs.”

The brokerage has clarified that the company’s “EBITDA came in at INR 0.7bn, +41/+43% QoQ/YoY, with EBITDA margin improving sequentially to 16.7% (+212/-223bps QoQ/YoY), owing to lesser opex. APAT was INR 0.5bn (+39/+60% QoQ/YoY).”

Buy Fine Organic Industries Ltd. with a target price of INR 4,220

Buy Fine Organic Industries Ltd. with a target price of INR 4,220

HDFC Securities in its research report has said that “Our BUY recommendation on Fine Organic Industries (FOIL) with a target price of INR 4,220 is premised on constant focus on R&D, diversified product portfolio, capacity-led expansion growth opportunity, and leadership in oleo-chemical based additives in the domestic and global markets with a loyal customer base.”

“We expect FOIL’s PAT to grow at a 41% CAGR over FY22-24E, led by a 36% CAGR in EBITDA. In the absence of any major Capex in the coming years, the RoCE would expand from 20% in FY22E to 29% in FY24E. Q2 EBITDA/APAT was 26/37% above our estimates, owing to a 22% rise in revenue, lower-than-expected raw material costs, lower-than expected depreciation and higher-than-expected other income. Q2 financial performance: Revenue grew 23/62% QoQ/YoY” the brokerage has further claimed.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock was picked from the brokerage report of HDFC Securities Ltd. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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GST could see major overhaul; reducing tax slabs, pruning exempt list on table, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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India could be eyeing a significant revamp of the goods and services tax (GST) structure as the regime completes five years in July next year when compensation to states is set to come to an end. Tax slab restructuring and reducing exemptions could be considered in the most comprehensive makeover of the single tax that was rolled out on July 1, 2017.

The new regime may have just three major tax rates covering most of the items against four now – 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%. The recast will seek to simplify the regime as well as lift revenue.

A group of ministers (GoM) headed by the Karnataka chief minister is likely to meet soon to finalise its recommendations that could be taken up at the next GST Council meeting.

“At the last GST Council meeting a presentation was given on various revenue scenarios… It is for states now to see how they wish to tackle the situation post July,” said a senior government official detailing the major items on the agenda.

The Centre compensates states for loss of revenue on account of the implementation of GST for five years–that ends next year. States have been worried about a significant drop in their revenues once this compensation ends.

Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had recently indicated that the effective tax rate under GST had slipped from the original revenue neutral rate of 15.5% to 11.6% “knowingly or unknowingly” due to multiple rate cuts since GST rollout in July 2017.

Policymakers Back Review of Slabs
Policymakers in states and the Centre have backed a review of the slabs to address the revenue issue.

Options on the table include pruning the list of items, both goods and services, currently exempt from the tax. One option is to merge the 5% and 12% levies to create one rate, and creating a three-slab regime of the merged rate, 18% and 28%.

“Discussions have been centred around how this rationalisation needs to be achieved,” an official said, adding that all options including reworking the slabs are being examined.

With GST revenue collections rising in recent months, it is felt that a revamp can be considered.

The GoM will meet on Saturday to discuss details with its final recommendations to be taken up by the GST Council.

Apart from the four key slabs, 0.25% and 3% applies to jewellery and precious metals, respectively, besides a top-up compensation cess levied on select items such as automobiles. Many common use items have been exempted from GST, making it a complicated regime prone to classification disputes and leakages. GST is not levied on nearly 150 goods and over 80 services.

The 15th Finance Commission, headed by NK Singh, in its report had also made a case for GST structure rationalisation.

Tax experts say that with GST collections showing an encouraging trend in the past several months, this may be the right time to simplify the rate structure.

“There is a need for rate rationalisation in GST and the multiple exemptions need to go and rates need to converge to a two or three-rate structure,” said EY partner Bipin Sapra.

By pruning the exemption list, the GST base can be widened, which will not only increase revenue but also keep the overall rates at a reasonable level, Sapra said.

Rather than focusing on increasing the effective tax rate, the emphasis should be on further expanding the tax base by keeping levies moderate, said Pratik Jain of PwC. “Further, from a tax policy perspective, it’s important to remove barriers like restrictions on claiming input credits and applying GST based on price points, size of packing, capacity and so on,” he said.



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Farm laws repeal may leave gap in finance panel reform plan, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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The revoking of the three farm laws is likely to leave a serious policy gap as they were central to the reform path envisaged by the 15th Finance Commission for India‘s agriculture sector, if its own reports are an indicator.

The farm laws find strong advocacy in both the interim and final reports of the panel, prising open the question of how much their revocation will impact the reform and performance incentive framework envisaged and recommended for agriculture by the commission. It has recommended that ₹45,000 crore be set aside to grant performance incentives to states for ushering in agricultural reforms. Chairman of the 15th Finance Commission, NK Singh, however, maintained that this should not be seen as a “setback” given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also announced a panel to address various issues raised in the panel report.

“I don’t view it as a setback,” he told ET. “The report was submitted in a particular context when these laws were there. The performance matrix we have drawn up is a whole lot more than the farm laws and they are not contingent on the latter.”

While the commission had earlier tied grant of incentives to states to implementation of model laws on farmer produce facilitation and contract farming, once it was satisfied that its recommendations on policy gaps were addressed through the new farm laws, it went on to identify four other criteria. These are – land lease reforms, sustainable and efficient water use in agriculture, export promotion, and contribution towards Atmanirbhar Bharat.

With the assurance of the larger reform structure afforded by the farm laws now gone, the efficacy and adequacy of the performance incentives framework for states is bound to come under question.

Singh, however, said the performance matrix drawn up by the commission are not contingent on the farm laws. “They are in keeping with the idea of a new India, also in tune with the ecological sustainability concerns discussed recently at Glasgow climate conference and , in fact, a key aspect of reform,” he said.

“Sustainable water usage and agricultural practices, crop diversification are very much the centrepiece of the commission’s recommendations,” Singh said. “They were also mentioned by the PM when he talked of the farm laws and many concerns will be taken up by the committee to be set up.”

The panel reports, however, seem to underline the centrality of the farm laws to the envisaged reform framework.



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Sensex may rally up to 80,000 next year in bull case, predicts Morgan Stanley, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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NEW DELHI: Driven by the new profit cycle, India will continue to outperform other markets but that will come along with higher relative volatility, said Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist, in a note authored on Thursday.

“India appears to be in a structural uptrend with a likely new profit cycle, supportive policy, likely rise in fixed income flows, new issuances and falling return correlations with the world,” he said.

“We expect earnings to compound 27 per cent annually over the next couple of years and the Sensex to rise 16 per cent in our base case to 70,000 (Dec 22) – albeit mostly in the back half of 2022. Our FY22 earnings estimate has been lowered by 7 per cent, but FY23 numbers are unchanged. Index returns are likely to trail earnings growth as the market digests trailing returns,” Desai added.

In bull case, Morgan Stanley believes Sensex could hit 80,000 in 2022, but for that some things need to come along India’s way – India gets included in the global bond indices resulting in near $20 billion inflows, there is no COVID wave 3 or any associated lockdowns, dollar and oil prices are range bound and RBI’s exit is delayed.

Desai, in the note co-authored with two others, accepted that the current headline valuations look rich, but argued that they must be seen in the context of depressed long-term earnings. Thanks to the humongous rally, Nifty50’s price-to-earnings multiple has reached all-time high levels of 26 while price-to-book stood on the cusp of kissing 5 level.

Indian equities are running into many challenges, including the US rate cycle, rising oil prices, elections in key states, potential Covid wave 3, upward inflexion in domestic interest rates, rich headline valuations and strong relative trailing performance, noted the analysts.

In the run-up to the all-time high till now, the volatility indicator has largely been subdued, but that may become a thing of the past, said analysts. They added that the risk to the market is also increasing, which will keep traders on their toes. Interestingly, Morgan Stanley had recently downgraded India to equal-weight.

“The index has been remarkably devoid of volatility over the past several months with both implied and realized vols low relative to history. With higher valuations and more event risks on the horizon, volatility is slated to rise, especially in the broad market,” said Desai.

Morgan Stanley’s strategy going forward is to focus on stock picking rather than macro investing, sticking with cyclicals rather than investing in defensive and choosing largecaps over smallcaps.

“Our key macro themes include a strong pick up in consumption, normalization of RBI policy and rising share of manufacturing share in GDP. We are backing financials, cyclical consumption and industrials and are relatively cautious on export sectors,” said Desai.

According to him, the key theme for the upcoming calendar year will be clean energy spend, defence indigenisation, a new residential property, auto and air travel cycle, multiyear credit cycle for financials, life insurance, digital transformation, hyper-local commerce and market share concentration plus horizontal growth for discretionary and staple consumption and electric vehicles.



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Crypto Currency: Moderate Regulation Is Better

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Investment

oi-Sunil Fernandes

By Vinshu Gupta

|

Crypto currency in India is not reglauted. In every industry that has survived, the adoption has always been top down. The regulators are first one to come in followed by the big organisations that create needed infrastructure and finally the retail end users are the last ones to join. It usually balances power in the hands of bigger companies and regulators.

Crypto is the only industry, which has started bottoms up. You see p2p trades happening even before regulators had any clue what was going on. Retailers owned more BTC than institutions, governments didn’t know or created any framework, organisations didn’t build any infrastructure. It did empower the common man and tilted the balance on power in their power.

This is one big reason that so much chatter is there against bitcoin and the industry at large. Since it is by and for retailers so even if it is banned, it will not die, since billions of small people are all around the world. Someone, somewhere will hold Bitcoin, in some part someone else will keep on mining. If regulators leave this alone, it will grow itself. If they don’t leave it alone, it will still survive. As honorable Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharam said – “We cannot be moving ahead as if this doesn’t exist”.

Crypto Currency: Moderate Regulation Is Better

Having said that, controlled moderate regulation is still better as long as its not stiffling. The definition of decentralisation is still evolving. it’s possible that next generation of crypto apps would require KYCs and filter out terror, blood or drug money and purge the system.

Vinshu Gupta, the author of the article is Founder and Director, Nonceblox Blockchain Studio

Story first published: Saturday, November 20, 2021, 8:06 [IST]



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Avail Finance appoints Alexander John as Chief Business Officer, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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Avail Finance, a neo-bank that provides products and offerings for the blue-collared workforce in India, on Thursday announced the appointment of Alexander John as Chief Business Officer.

Before joining Avail Finance, John was Chief Risk Officer at Avanti Financial Services, a fintech company founded by Ratan Tata and Nandan Nilekani. Prior to Avanti, he was Business Head for the micro and small business lending segment at Jana Bank.

With over 24 years of professional experience, John has held a number of senior leadership roles spanning business, risk, strategy across the banking and ITeS spectrum.

His vast experience is expected to help the company build up business volumes and increase profitability while balancing risk and reward.

Ankush Aggarwal, Founder and CEO, Avail Finance, said, “I am pleased to welcome Alex to the Avail Finance family. His experience across diverse roles will be a huge positive as Avail gets ready to scale up significantly.”

Alexander John, Chief Business Officer, Avail Finance, said, “I am thrilled to start my new role at Avail Finance alongside some really talented professionals.”

“Neo banks are the future of the finance industry and with the nature of the audience that Avail Finance services, there is massive potential of growth for the brand. Avail has become a trusted name in a very short time and I look forward to growing the business volumes and increasing profitability,” John added.

Avail Finance is aggressively building up its leadership team with a good mix across MNCs and fast paced startups. The company plans to grow its tech, product and business talent pools by 2x in 6-8 months, according to a statement.



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‘Buy’ This Stock For 56% Returns In 1 Year: HDFC Securities

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Target Price

The Current Market Price (CMP) of Engineers India is Rs. 69.75. The brokerage firm, HDFC Securities has estimated a Target Price for the stock at Rs. 109. Hence the stock is expected to give a 56.27% return, in a Target Period of 1 year.

Stock Outlook
Current Market Price (CMP) Rs. 69.75
Target Price Rs. 109
1 year return 56.27%

Company performance

Company performance

Engineers India’s (EIL) Q2FY22 performance was muted due to weak execution in both consultancy and turnkey segments. During the quarter, the company booked two large orders from Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL), Nagapattinam, leading to a total order inflow of Rs. 11.7bn. Execution on HPCL Barmer remained low as LSTK execution during Q2FY22 fell 12.3% YoY to Rs. 3bn. Consultancy execution was also subdued with a muted 1.8% YoY growth to Rs. 3.5bn over a low base.

Comments by HDFC Securities

Comments by HDFC Securities

HDFC thinks the company faced a weak execution but had a stable outlook. According to the brokerage firm, “Factoring in the weak execution and decline in margins, we cut our earnings estimates for FY22E and FY23E by 9% and 6% respectively. However, taking into account the investment in NRL and Ramagundam Fertilisers, and healthy growth prospects, we maintain BUY on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 109 (previously: Rs. 116).”

About the company

About the company

EIL is a leading engineering consultancy and EPC company, delivering world-class projects. Certification Engineers International Ltd. (CEIL) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of EIL. For setting up a gas-based urea plant of capacity 3850 TPD, EIL, National Fertilizers Limited (NFL), and Fertilizer Corporation of India (FCIL) have incorporated RFCL as a Joint Venture Company.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock was picked from the brokerage report of HDFC Securities. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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HDFC Securities Recommends To ‘Buy’ This Stock For 15% Upside

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Target Price

The Current Market Price (CMP) of Tanla Platforms (Tanla) is Rs. 1392. The brokerage firm, HDFC Securities has estimated a Target Price for the stock at Rs. 1600. Hence the stock is expected to give a 15% return, in a Target Period of 1 year.

Stock Outlook
Current Market Price (CMP) Rs. 1392
Target Price Rs. 1600
1 year return 15.00%

Company performance

Company performance

The company’s enterprise revenue has increased 36.5/41.5% QoQ/YoY to Rs. 7.8bn in Q2, led by higher volumes and an increase in ILD rates. Platform revenue increased 12.6/90.2% QoQ/YoY to Rs. 0.6bn. The gross margin for enterprise/platform stood at 22.1/92.6% in the quarter. The working capital management has improved, leading to a strong CF conversion (OCF/EBITDA at 129/119% in FY21/H1FY22).

Comments by HDFC Securities

Comments by HDFC Securities

According to HDFC Securities, “Tanla’s enterprise messaging capabilities were strengthened by the acquisition of Karix (market leader in India CPaaS). It has emerged as an integrated CPaaS solutions provider with an asset-light business model in its new avatar (V2.0). We initiate coverage on Tanla with a Target Price of Rs. 1,600, valuing it at 30x FY24E EPS, supported by its top quartile growth, higher RoE of 44%, excellent cash generation, and net cash of INR 8.5bn (~5% of market cap).”

About the company

About the company

Tanla Platforms (Tanla) is a leading player in the fast-growing CPaaS market (22% CAGR), which is being led by increased online transactions. The company’s business model has changed several times in the past two decades, but it has found success in the Application-to-Person (A2P) messaging and platform business, which grew at 46% CAGR over FY15-21.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock was picked from the brokerage report of HDFC Securities. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Buy This Midcap Infra Stock For 30% Potential Upside: Axis Securities

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Q2FY22 results of PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL)

According to the brokerage “PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL) reported a healthy set of Q2FY22 numbers driven by its superior execution and a robust order book. The company reported revenue of Rs 1,615 Cr (up 53% YoY), EBIDTA of Rs 222 Cr (up 56% YoY), and APAT of Rs 135 Cr (up 95% YoY). It registered EBITDA Margins of 13.7% in Q2FY22 (our estimate: 13.6%) as against 13.5% in Q1FY21. The company reported APAT margins of 8.4% against 6.6% in Q1FY21 while also maintaining its growth momentum.”

The brokerage has said that “PNCIL has an order book of Rs 13,178 Cr (as of 30th Sep 2021), indicating revenue visibility for the next 2 years. With a robust bidding pipeline in EPC and HAM projects along with water projects going forward, we believe PNCIL is well-placed to capture growth opportunities in the sector. With robust order book and better execution prowess, we expect the company to post Revenues/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17%/18%/28% CAGR respectively over FY21-24E.”

Key highlights for future performance of PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL) according to Axis Securities

Key highlights for future performance of PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL) according to Axis Securities

Orderbook stands at Rs 13,178 Cr as of Q2FY22 end: Order book break up is as follows: 24% from the roads (Others), 48% from the roads (HAM), and balance 28% (Water projects).

Overall margins improve: The company’s overall margins improved on YoY/QoQ, driven by better execution and normalising economic activities. The company reported EBITDA and APAT margins of 13.7% and 8.4% against 13.5% and 6.6% YoY.

Focus on road projects: The company continues to sharply focus on road projects (both EPC and HAM). However, it intends to continue diversifying to augment revenue and the dirisk its business model further. The company expects good growth from water projects under the Jal Jivan Mission of the government. Currently, the company has 18 projects comprising EPC, HAM, BOT, OMT, and water projects. It has received PCOD in four HAM projects and the balance of 7 projects are under construction.

Buy PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL) with a target price of Rs. 430

Buy PNC Infratech Ltd (PNCIL) with a target price of Rs. 430

Axis Securities Limited has said in its research report that the “Road sector is witnessing significant development on the back of increased government thrust on infrastructure investment as well as due to the unveiling of the Gati Shakti Plan which will provide further momentum to the execution and avoid unnecessary delays. With the ongoing development in the entire infra space, a strong and diversified order book position, efficient execution prowess, asset monetization plan and a clean balance sheet, we expect the company’s Revenues/EBITDA/APAT to grow at a CAGR of 17%/18%/28% respectively over FY21-24E. We maintain a BUY on PNCIL and value EPC business at 13 x FY24E EPS and HAM portfolio at 1x book value to arrive at a target price of Rs 430, implying an upside of 30% from CMP.”

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

The above stock has been picked from the brokerage report of Axis Securities. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution. Greynium Information Technologies, the author, and the brokerage house are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article.



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Sebi tweaks guidelines for processing of draft schemes filed with exchanges, BFSI News, ET BFSI

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New Delhi: Sebi on Thursday clarified on guidelines for processing of draft schemes pertaining to mergers and demergers filed by listed companies with the stock exchanges. Under the rule, listed entities desirous of undertaking a scheme of arrangement are required to submit certain documents to the exchanges.

Listed entities will be required to submit no objection certificate (NOC) from the lending scheduled commercial banks/financial institutions as well as debenture trustees, Sebi said in circular issued on Thursday.

This circular is an addendum to the one issued on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the regulator said that such entities will be required to submit NOC from the lending scheduled commercial banks or financial institutions.

Apart from this, the listed entities are required to submit certain documents to the exchange, which includes a valuation report.

As per the revised guidelines, this report needs to be accompanied by an undertaking from the listed entity, stating that no material event impacting the valuation has occurred during the intervening period of filing the scheme documents with exchange and period under consideration for valuation.

“These amendments are aimed at ensuring that the recognised stock exchanges refer draft schemes to Sebi only upon being fully convinced that the listed entity is in compliance with Sebi Act, Rules, Regulations and circulars,” Sebi said.

Besides, the entities need to submit a declaration on any past defaults of listed debt obligations of the entities forming part of the scheme.

“The fractional entitlements, if any, shall be aggregated and held by the trust, nominated by the Board in that behalf, who shall sell such shares in the market at such price, within a period of 90 days from the date of allotment of shares, as per the draft scheme submitted to Sebi,” the regulator noted.

The listed company has to submit a report from its audit committee and the independent directors certifying that the listed entity has compensated the eligible shareholders.

Both the reports will be submitted within 7 days of compensating the shareholders. Sebi has also asked the exchange to ensure compliance with the guidelines and the non-compliance, if any, has to be submitted to the regulator on a quarterly basis.

Any misstatement or furnishing of false information will make the listed entity liable for punitive action. The guidelines will be applicable for all the schemes filed with the stock exchanges from the date of the circular.

There are certain requirements that need to be fulfilled before the scheme of arrangement is submitted for sanction by the National Company Law Tribunal. This includes that listed entities choose one of the stock exchanges having nationwide trading terminals as the designated stock exchange to coordinate with Sebi.

Scheme of arrangement is a court-approved agreement between a company and its shareholders or creditors.



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